Swing to Labour this time round. Interesting. Perhaps exit poll wasn't so far off...
Very interesting, could it be some sort of North south divide? Without wanting to sound ignorant can anyone explain the differences between towns like Newcastle/Sunderland and Swindon?
Lots of unemployment in Newcastle/Sunderland. Saw a surge in traditional Labour voters going to Ukip based on immigration mainly and much more likely to see the shy Tory effect as this is traditional Labour heartland.
They did say that the postal vote was somewhat accounted for in the prediction.
Will be interesting to see how the leave/remain distribution unfolds during the night.
They assume they follow the polling station votes (or I think it was they change in the polling station vote) A lot of the elderly postal vote apparently........
You make a good point. Best give them a call to point out their massive oversight.
Didn't say they had made an oversight did I?
What wager we having on it being wrong if you are so sure it's spot on? All for charity of course.
I'll wager that their prediction for Tories is within 100 seats.
In other words your just being facetious. Thought these polls were accurate in your view? Within 100, 200 swing....... you'd best give them a call to point out their huge, huge oversight, what with your number crunching skills
I'm taking that as a no then........ doesn't have to be huge £50 to the upbeats, I pay if the exit poll is correct, you pay if it isn't?
I said all along the brexit factor was harder tio read than a straight assumption it would go from UKIP to Tory. There will have been UKIP voter passionate enough about pulling out of tha EU to vote for a single interest party like that, but not necessarily strongly in favour of a hard brexit.
If an area had more hard brexiters then they will probably be swing towards a the tories, but if a soft brexit is more popular in an area then they may be swing towards labour. Hard to know which areas are which just on the referendum results because it was a straight yes/no choice.
For the 1st time this campaign they were in my road at 9:30pm! Had a quick chat, 3 nice your people, they said they feel he'll be OK but it's going to be very close.
They did say that the postal vote was somewhat accounted for in the prediction.
Will be interesting to see how the leave/remain distribution unfolds during the night.
They assume they follow the polling station votes (or I think it was they change in the polling station vote) A lot of the elderly postal vote apparently........
You make a good point. Best give them a call to point out their massive oversight.
Didn't say they had made an oversight did I?
What wager we having on it being wrong if you are so sure it's spot on? All for charity of course.
I'll wager that their prediction for Tories is within 100 seats.
In other words your just being facetious. Thought these polls were accurate in your view? Within 100, 200 swing....... you'd best give them a call to point out their huge, huge oversight, what with your number crunching skills
I'm taking that as a no then........ doesn't have to be huge £50 to the upbeats, I pay if the exit poll is correct, you pay if it isn't?
So if the poll is out by 1 I lose? Come on you have to give me a spread. +-20?
Imagine if all the other parties managed to get a coalition together then immediately changed the voting system to something else (STV, AMS or AV+) then immediately hold another election...
They did say that the postal vote was somewhat accounted for in the prediction.
Will be interesting to see how the leave/remain distribution unfolds during the night.
They assume they follow the polling station votes (or I think it was they change in the polling station vote) A lot of the elderly postal vote apparently........
You make a good point. Best give them a call to point out their massive oversight.
Didn't say they had made an oversight did I?
What wager we having on it being wrong if you are so sure it's spot on? All for charity of course.
I'll wager that their prediction for Tories is within 100 seats.
In other words your just being facetious. Thought these polls were accurate in your view? Within 100, 200 swing....... you'd best give them a call to point out their huge, huge oversight, what with your number crunching skills
I'm taking that as a no then........ doesn't have to be huge £50 to the upbeats, I pay if the exit poll is correct, you pay if it isn't?
So if the poll is out by 1 I lose? Come on you have to give me a spread. +-20?
You picked up when I said they'll be wrong, think it was 'your desperate for these polls to be wrong'. Are you now saying you think, theres a possibility, they could be wrong by as much as 20?
Only got as far as reading page 217 ( I know....have avoided this thread until tonight for various reasons) but @Rob7Lee has voiced my thoughts better than anyone else thus far.
I have never been any any way, shape or form a "political animal" if there is such a person.
My Dad worked on the railways, then in the local paper Mill before retirement , having fought as a Commando in WW2. He & Mum married & lived with my Grandparents in their council house in Dartford where I was born. They had little chance to save , never owned a car or travelled abroad but were proud when their only child passed the 11+ and took her place at DGGS. And they ALWAYS voted Labour.
I left school at 16 with 8 "O" levels , worked in local government, banking & finally for the Employment Service. I never worked in the private sector but earned what I felt was a decent wage with very good terms & conditions and have a pension, albeit not huge as I worked part time for the last 20 years. I used to vote Labour , mainly due to the family "tradition"...
I have been married for nearly 47 years to Richard, who was an apprentice at J & E Hall after leaving school with no certificates before using his experience to work his way up to Refrigeration/Air Con engineer. By saving & living fairly frugally we bought our first house in 1970 for £6,050 - under a Conservative government before interest rates rose considerably & made it more difficult to gain a foot on the property ladder. Our children were born in 1975 & 1978 before we moved in 1981 to a larger house which cost us £47,000 with a substantially larger mortgage.
Both children are now married , one with 2 , the other with 3 children , and own their own houses. Neither attended University although both had offers as a result of their good "A" levels from the local grammar schools as a result of diligent attention to their studies. Our son is an IT/Facilities Manager & earns a reasonable salary whilst his wife is a Web Designer , working P/T from home. Our daughter worked in banking & HR until her first child was born whilst her husband, who left Dartford West School at 16 but studied ( successfully) for his Accountancy exams from the age of 23, is now a partner in a Private Equity Investment company & earning a salary commensurate with the responsibility & very long hours that he works.
In summary, an extended family whose adult members had varied educational success & whose roots were also different, are "enjoying" comfortable life styles through hard work ( esp in son in laws case) , careful budgeting & possibly a degree of fortune , allied with , thus far, good health. In this, I feel we are an average bunch of Brits on the whole & happy with our lot whilst being aware of those not so "fortunate".
We are Tory voters at present. Both of our children & their other halves voted to Remain , unlike ourselves, and our SIL has stated that he would be looking to move "his" company abroad should Labour win tonight, as mentioned by Rob in his post....But I wanted to illustrate that we as a family are NOT "rich" as suggested by some Lifers, neither are we 2nd home owners or living the life of luxury. However, as you may be aware, Richard is recovering from prostate cancer & previously from a malignant melanoma, whilst my Mum spent her last months in a Care Home (funded by the State apart from her pension) following some weeks in the local hospital . On all these & other occasions, the NHS made us proud , doing what is says on the tin. Again, maybe we are lucky but I can only speak from our experience. And our 5 grandchildren attend good, if not outstanding schools where they are working hard towards the next stage of their education although neither family lives in an area where Grammar schools are a future option.
There are thousands of ordinary, average Brits like ourselves who have voted Tory tonight. So, please don't call us elite, wealthy or whatever terminology you care to use. Like you, we are doing the best we can for ourselves & our families, with what we have. And, although we certainly have a social conscience, our votes have been cast with our remaining years & our grandkids' future uppermost in our minds.
They did say that the postal vote was somewhat accounted for in the prediction.
Will be interesting to see how the leave/remain distribution unfolds during the night.
They assume they follow the polling station votes (or I think it was they change in the polling station vote) A lot of the elderly postal vote apparently........
You make a good point. Best give them a call to point out their massive oversight.
Didn't say they had made an oversight did I?
What wager we having on it being wrong if you are so sure it's spot on? All for charity of course.
I'll wager that their prediction for Tories is within 100 seats.
In other words your just being facetious. Thought these polls were accurate in your view? Within 100, 200 swing....... you'd best give them a call to point out their huge, huge oversight, what with your number crunching skills
I'm taking that as a no then........ doesn't have to be huge £50 to the upbeats, I pay if the exit poll is correct, you pay if it isn't?
So if the poll is out by 1 I lose? Come on you have to give me a spread. +-20?
You picked up when I said they'll be wrong, think it was 'your desperate for these polls to be wrong'. Are you now saying you think, theres a possibility, they could be wrong by as much as 20?
Am I saying a poll could be wrong? Of course I am, only a moron would take them as absolute fact. My point was you kept posting reasons for why you didn't believe it. My point has always been that they give a pretty accurate representation.
Happy to do a wager for the upbeats but at least make it fair.
Imagine if all the other parties managed to get a coalition together then immediately changed the voting system to PR (STV or AV+) then immediately hold another election...
Comments
LAB 24639
CON 11699
UKIP 2761
LD 961
GRN 514
Swing to CON. LAB up 6%, CON up 10%.
I'm taking that as a no then........ doesn't have to be huge £50 to the upbeats, I pay if the exit poll is correct, you pay if it isn't?
....at least it's not my day job unlike the professional pollsters :-)
Just posting the source for that
If an area had more hard brexiters then they will probably be swing towards a the tories, but if a soft brexit is more popular in an area then they may be swing towards labour. Hard to know which areas are which just on the referendum results because it was a straight yes/no choice.
How is this going down in the brasserie?
I have never been any any way, shape or form a "political animal" if there is such a person.
My Dad worked on the railways, then in the local paper Mill before retirement , having fought as a Commando in WW2. He & Mum married & lived with my Grandparents in their council house in Dartford where I was born. They had little chance to save , never owned a car or travelled abroad but were proud when their only child passed the 11+ and took her place at DGGS. And they ALWAYS voted Labour.
I left school at 16 with 8 "O" levels , worked in local government, banking & finally for the Employment Service. I never worked in the private sector but earned what I felt was a decent wage with very good terms & conditions and have a pension, albeit not huge as I worked part time for the last 20 years. I used to vote Labour , mainly due to the family "tradition"...
I have been married for nearly 47 years to Richard, who was an apprentice at J & E Hall after leaving school with no certificates before using his experience to work his way up to Refrigeration/Air Con engineer. By saving & living fairly frugally we bought our first house in 1970 for £6,050 - under a Conservative government before interest rates rose considerably & made it more difficult to gain a foot on the property ladder. Our children were born in 1975 & 1978 before we moved in 1981 to a larger house which cost us £47,000 with a substantially larger mortgage.
Both children are now married , one with 2 , the other with 3 children , and own their own houses. Neither attended University although both had offers as a result of their good "A" levels from the local grammar schools as a result of diligent attention to their studies. Our son is an IT/Facilities Manager & earns a reasonable salary whilst his wife is a Web Designer , working P/T from home. Our daughter worked in banking & HR until her first child was born whilst her husband, who left Dartford West School at 16 but studied ( successfully) for his Accountancy exams from the age of 23, is now a partner in a Private Equity Investment company & earning a salary commensurate with the responsibility & very long hours that he works.
In summary, an extended family whose adult members had varied educational success & whose roots were also different, are "enjoying" comfortable life styles through hard work ( esp in son in laws case) , careful budgeting & possibly a degree of fortune , allied with , thus far, good health. In this, I feel we are an average bunch of Brits on the whole & happy with our lot whilst being aware of those not so "fortunate".
We are Tory voters at present. Both of our children & their other halves voted to Remain , unlike ourselves, and our SIL has stated that he would be looking to move "his" company abroad should Labour win tonight, as mentioned by Rob in his post....But I wanted to illustrate that we as a family are NOT "rich" as suggested by some Lifers, neither are we 2nd home owners or living the life of luxury. However, as you may be aware, Richard is recovering from prostate cancer & previously from a malignant melanoma, whilst my Mum spent her last months in a Care Home (funded by the State apart from her pension) following some weeks in the local hospital . On all these & other occasions, the NHS made us proud , doing what is says on the tin. Again, maybe we are lucky but I can only speak from our experience. And our 5 grandchildren attend good, if not outstanding schools where they are working hard towards the next stage of their education although neither family lives in an area where Grammar schools are a future option.
There are thousands of ordinary, average Brits like ourselves who have voted Tory tonight. So, please don't call us elite, wealthy or whatever terminology you care to use. Like you, we are doing the best we can for ourselves & our families, with what we have. And, although we certainly have a social conscience, our votes have been cast with our remaining years & our grandkids' future uppermost in our minds.
Happy to do a wager for the upbeats but at least make it fair.