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The General Election - June 8th 2017
Comments
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Well the 30k is presumably derived from people a lot smarter than you or I who have calculated the sample size needed in determining the swing seats.Rob7Lee said:
All I said was when a couple of results came in the exit poll was way out (which it was), only other comment was it was only on 30k which doesn't seem much and then the postal vote this time around makes up at least 25%. Even the Poll man himself has been saying it could be up 20-40 seats wrong...... at 100 he said they'd have got it very wrongcolthe3rd said:
Am I saying a poll could be wrong? Of course I am, only a moron would take them as absolute fact. My point was you kept posting reasons for why you didn't believe it. My point has always been that they give a pretty accurate representation.Rob7Lee said:
You picked up when I said they'll be wrong, think it was 'your desperate for these polls to be wrong'. Are you now saying you think, theres a possibility, they could be wrong by as much as 20?colthe3rd said:
So if the poll is out by 1 I lose? Come on you have to give me a spread. +-20?Rob7Lee said:
In other words your just being facetious. Thought these polls were accurate in your view? Within 100, 200 swing....... you'd best give them a call to point out their huge, huge oversight, what with your number crunching skillscolthe3rd said:
I'll wager that their prediction for Tories is within 100 seats.Rob7Lee said:
Didn't say they had made an oversight did I?colthe3rd said:
You make a good point. Best give them a call to point out their massive oversight.Rob7Lee said:
They assume they follow the polling station votes (or I think it was they change in the polling station vote) A lot of the elderly postal vote apparently........Callumcafc said:They did say that the postal vote was somewhat accounted for in the prediction.
Will be interesting to see how the leave/remain distribution unfolds during the night.
What wager we having on it being wrong if you are so sure it's spot on? All for charity of course.
I'm taking that as a no then........ doesn't have to be huge £50 to the upbeats, I pay if the exit poll is correct, you pay if it isn't?
Happy to do a wager for the upbeats but at least make it fair.
You suggested a 100 swing, now 20, which would make the poll seriously wrong as if Conservatives get a further 20 they are in lock stock and two smoking barrels.
And actually I suggested 20 because an exit poll has never been out by 20 seats ;-)
Still happy to bet on it if you make me an offer.0 -
Boris Johnson is "already on manoeuvres" claims Tory MP, who says the foreign secretary is "sounding out" a few colleagues about leadership.
Lib Dem source says Clegg is a goner.4 -
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Arsenal fan?SELR_addicks said:Boris Johnson is "already on manoeuvres" claims Tory MP, who says the foreign secretary is "sounding out" a few colleagues about leadership.
Lib Dem source says Clegg is a goner.
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I was a remainer.Callumcafc said:
But we cannot just screw up the result of a referendum and start again.
I may not like the result of it, but that's what the country voted for and it has to be followed through.
It would be lethal to our country if a democratic process was ignored.1 -
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Oh I agree. Just funny to see Nuttall having a hissy fit.DamoNorthStand said:
I was a remainer.Callumcafc said:
But we cannot just screw up the result of a referendum and start again.
I may not like the result of it, but that's what the country voted for and it has to be followed through.
It would be lethal to our country if a democratic process was ignored.1 -
Labour hold Darlington, one of the Tories best prospects in the North East.6
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LAB holds South Shields
Darlington
UKIP 1180
LAB 22681
LD 1000 ish
CON 19401
GRN 524
LAB +8%, CON +8%, UKIP -10%
Swing LAB to CON, 0.2%.0 -
Darlington's Tory candidate, Peter Cuthbertson, has one of the most Tory names I have seen.4
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I know don't believe the Tories will win a majority.0
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Keep this up, Britain6
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I'm fancying the exit poll to be wrong - in Labour's favour.....0
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If the Tories want to f*** things up further they'll put Bojo in charge. What a shambles!0
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George Osbourne loving every second of this.1
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We are on track for no party having a mandate to lead. Neither Tories + DUP nor Labour plus other losing parties (you can make a call on Lib Dems) can make the line at this rate.
Brexit - disaster
Hung Parliament - disaster following on from above.
Can anyone honestly think we are in a good place entering Brexit negotiations?2 - Sponsored links:
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LibDems predicted to take Salmond's seat...please God let this happen.1
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Only if you're mad.....DamoNorthStand said:We are on track for no party having a mandate to lead. Neither Tories + DUP nor Labour plus other losing parties (you can make a call on Lib Dems) can make the line at this rate.
Brexit - disaster
Hung Parliament - disaster following on from above.
Can anyone honestly think we are in a good place entering Brexit negotiations?0 -
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Turnout is up across the board.
Talk of youth vote being up 15-20%.5 -
Corbyn looking at number 10 like:1
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Looking on the bright side, at least we know now what a terrible decision-maker Theresa May is (or was). So there can be no suggestion she should be anywhere near Brexit negotiations.DamoNorthStand said:We are on track for no party having a mandate to lead. Neither Tories + DUP nor Labour plus other losing parties (you can make a call on Lib Dems) can make the line at this rate.
Brexit - disaster
Hung Parliament - disaster following on from above.
Can anyone honestly think we are in a good place entering Brexit negotiations?4 -
I saw this as well. Desperately hope it's true. Just imagining the look on the evil old prick's face as he storms out is just beautiful.aliwibble said:4 -
Theresa May on the phone to RD about taking over at Charlton as CEO.1
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