In the pub, my niece said that this time round, the youth vote is real. " it's become cool to vote" she said. At 21.55....
I'm hoping this puts an end to the suggestion of a take over by the hard left, maybe they have finally given a mandate that the whole Labour party can accept and build upon together. If the have energised the youth vote, they have defied the establishment again. Early days yet saying that.
They did say that the postal vote was somewhat accounted for in the prediction.
Will be interesting to see how the leave/remain distribution unfolds during the night.
They assume they follow the polling station votes (or I think it was they change in the polling station vote) A lot of the elderly postal vote apparently........
You make a good point. Best give them a call to point out their massive oversight.
Didn't say they had made an oversight did I?
What wager we having on it being wrong if you are so sure it's spot on? All for charity of course.
I'll wager that their prediction for Tories is within 100 seats.
In other words your just being facetious. Thought these polls were accurate in your view? Within 100, 200 swing....... you'd best give them a call to point out their huge, huge oversight, what with your number crunching skills
I'm taking that as a no then........ doesn't have to be huge £50 to the upbeats, I pay if the exit poll is correct, you pay if it isn't?
So if the poll is out by 1 I lose? Come on you have to give me a spread. +-20?
You picked up when I said they'll be wrong, think it was 'your desperate for these polls to be wrong'. Are you now saying you think, theres a possibility, they could be wrong by as much as 20?
Am I saying a poll could be wrong? Of course I am, only a moron would take them as absolute fact. My point was you kept posting reasons for why you didn't believe it. My point has always been that they give a pretty accurate representation.
Happy to do a wager for the upbeats but at least make it fair.
All I said was when a couple of results came in the exit poll was way out (which it was), only other comment was it was only on 30k which doesn't seem much and then the postal vote this time around makes up at least 25%. Even the Poll man himself has been saying it could be up 20-40 seats wrong...... at 100 he said they'd have got it very wrong
You suggested a 100 swing, now 20, which would make the poll seriously wrong as if Conservatives get a further 20 they are in lock stock and two smoking barrels.
Comments
I'm done.
We've peaked.
I feel like I now have an impact an national politics, I've waited for this day.
CON +6%, LAB +6%
UKIP -11%
CON +6%, LAB +10%.
Swing CON to LAB 2.2%.
I'd never have thought of that, explains why he has a Doctorate.
You suggested a 100 swing, now 20, which would make the poll seriously wrong as if Conservatives get a further 20 they are in lock stock and two smoking barrels.