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The General Election - June 8th 2017

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Comments

  • Lamb a good hold for the lib dems.
  • Ed Davey re-elected in Kingston.

    Prague wil be pleased
  • Walsall North - First CON GAIN FROM LAB
  • SDAddick said:

    NEW FORECAST:

    CON 318
    LAB 267
    SNP 32
    LD 11
    PC 3
    GRN 1

    Somewhat different to the model suggested by @newyorkaddick ?
    I didn't see that, but as someone who watches polling closely, this would indicate that the Exit Polls were VERY close
    Begs the question what's the point of the polls?
  • LAB gain Derby North from CON.
  • edited June 2017
    A 20 point gain (~19% swing), that's insane.
  • C_A_F_C said:

    Walsall North - First CON GAIN FROM LAB

    BOOOOOOOO
  • LuckyReds said:

    The muppet responsible for the manifesto (Ben Gummer) has lost his seat. Good.

    What moron decided that a descendent of the odious John Selwyn Gummer would have sufficient nous to draft a manifesto?

    Bit like running a campaign focusing on personality when you're a spineless personality void

    Who is making the decisions in government? They need a good slap
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  • Labour hold Hammersmith.

    This was one of the ones the Conservative's were targeting specifically. (A bit optimistic, as I couldn't see them grabbing anything extra in London... I thought that was pretty obvious!)
  • Ok
    Off to bed.
    11 days until the brexit negotistions start.
  • edited June 2017
    Wow, who is the Conservative candidate for Vauxhall?

    Edit: It's Dolly Theis.

    image
  • SDAddick said:

    NEW FORECAST:

    CON 318
    LAB 267
    SNP 32
    LD 11
    PC 3
    GRN 1

    Somewhat different to the model suggested by @newyorkaddick ?
    I didn't see that, but as someone who watches polling closely, this would indicate that the Exit Polls were VERY close
    Begs the question what's the point of the polls?
    There is an argument for them being banned as they influence voting intention.

    The methodology is very outdated and the data tends to focus on politically engaged voters, which skews when you compare to the nation. Especially in an election with, what looks like, an unprecedented make up of turn out like this one. In this day and age who answers a land line for fear of a PPI call or answers the door?





  • Friday. A day of sunshine, hugs, and a friendly raise-a-glass. Chin, chin.
    Patronage and spivs OUT.
    Love and hope IN.

    And, Tories, please choke on your spew. We've choked for decades on yours, and the taste is truly siiiiiick.

  • Right I'm off to bed. Good night one and all.
  • Sounds like Amber could be hanging on by the skin of her teeth.
  • The most interesting development is clearly the escort tactics of the police as they bring Theresa May back to London. (if you're watching Sky News)

    Pretty nifty watching the police block off roads and navigate different junctions to be fair. Think I'm beginning to wind down a bit now, struggling to fight off the yawning.
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  • Huge surge for Labour who massively outperform leads to...Boris Johnson as the new Prime Minister? That'd be a real kick in the bollocks.
  • LuckyReds said:

    Wow, who is the Conservative candidate for Vauxhall?

    Edit: It's Dolly Theis.

    image

    I know it's getting late there but can't we have just one thread that doesn't turn sex pest?
  • Very interesting to hear the DUP woman on Sky too, saying she'd find it very difficult to work with Corbyn due to his past.

    Even more ironic considering Gerry Adams earlier was interviewed, and it was pointed out that Sinn Fein's refusal to sit their candidates in Westminster could indeed prove important when it comes to the Conservative party making a majority.
  • SDAddick said:

    NEW FORECAST:

    CON 318
    LAB 267
    SNP 32
    LD 11
    PC 3
    GRN 1

    Somewhat different to the model suggested by @newyorkaddick ?
    I didn't see that, but as someone who watches polling closely, this would indicate that the Exit Polls were VERY close
    Begs the question what's the point of the polls?
    There is an argument for them being banned as they influence voting intention.

    The methodology is very outdated and the data tends to focus on politically engaged voters, which skews when you compare to the nation. Especially in an election with, what looks like, an unprecedented make up of turn out like this one. In this day and age who answers a land line for fear of a PPI call or answers the door?





    Hang on, to be fair as I said earlier their raw numbers were quite good, it was their skewing that messed things up.

    To their credit, British pollsters are very good about "showing their work" in terms of how they go from raw to predicted. This kind of sets them up to take a beating.

    Also, entirely possible this will end up within margin of error.
  • edited June 2017
    The only thing I will say is if BoJo is PM - it will become rapidly clear that comparisons to Diane Abbott were wide of the mark

    Not that that's saying much
  • The numbers make no sense now?

    Cons 215, Lab 218, LD 10, UKIP 0, SNP 29, oth 20.
    Then
    Cons 320, Lab 261, LD 16, UKIP 0, SNP 31,Oth 22
  • LAB set to gain Warrington South from CON.
  • C_A_F_C said:

    LAB gain Derby North from CON.

    Jim Davidson was campaigning for the Conservatives there.
    Possibly the first time I've ever laughed at Jim Davidson.
This discussion has been closed.

Roland Out Forever!