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The General Election - June 8th 2017

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  • DamoNorthStand
    DamoNorthStand Posts: 10,934
    se9addick said:

    Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !

    Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.
  • Addickted4life
    Addickted4life Posts: 7,467
    Amber Rudd holds on by 300 odd votes, boo.
  • aliwibble
    aliwibble Posts: 26,290
    SDAddick said:

    Here's a fun thing to imagine:
    Jeremy Corbyn meeting Donald Trump.

    Can you imagine the handshake for that one?

    C_A_F_C said:

    Walsall North - First CON GAIN FROM LAB

    BOOOOOOOO
    Was that wotsisname Winnick's seat? He's completely batshit, so I'm if they have to lose one I'd rather it was him. Or maybe Kate Hoey.

  • SDAddick
    SDAddick Posts: 14,467
    LuckyReds said:

    Within the next 10 minutes we may be losing our home secretary..

    Rudd holds by 346.
  • LuckyReds
    LuckyReds Posts: 5,866
    Hastings and Rye - Conservative Hold: Our Home Secretary scrapes through... just.

    Amber Rudd (CON): 25,666
    Peter Chwoeney (LAB): 25,322
    LD: 1,885
    UKIP: 1479
  • mcgrandall
    mcgrandall Posts: 931

    se9addick said:

    Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !

    Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.
    Shows how shit our electoral system is with 40% of the vote.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,764
    BOOOOOOOO
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,764
    LuckyReds said:

    Hastings and Rye - Conservative Hold: Our Home Secretary scrapes through... just.

    Amber Rudd (CON): 25,666
    Peter Chwoeney (LAB): 25,322
    LD: 1,885
    UKIP: 1479

    666. Appropriate.
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,035

    se9addick said:

    Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !

    Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.
    Would you bet against him getting those extra 50 or so seats he needs in the second election that's blatantly coming our way shortly ?
  • LuckyReds
    LuckyReds Posts: 5,866
    I've realised that I actually dislike most of the big Tory names. There hasn't been one seat I've seen that I haven't thought "meh, wouldn't give a crap - don't like them that much.".
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  • ricky_otto
    ricky_otto Posts: 22,600

    Amber Rudd holds on by 300 odd votes, boo.

    Declan will be pleased.
  • LuckyReds
    LuckyReds Posts: 5,866
    Sky have adjusted their estimate again, shaving 5 off what they think May can get. (315-321, and 260-266 respectively.)
  • NornIrishAddick
    NornIrishAddick Posts: 9,623
    LuckyReds said:

    A larger NI contingent in the government may introduce a more thoughtful Brexit negotiation with regards to border control, perhaps?

    If anything, I think it could lessen it to be honest. It might have been likely if it was the UUP. The DUP are quite hardline Brexit, and it is not uncommon to hear their members say that the answer is for Ireland to leave the EU as well.

    It would be interesting to see what the views of MPs in general will be - the proportion of anti-EU MPs may be greater. There's not a lot of time before negotiations begin.

    The two worst outcomes for May, other than losing, were either a massive majority (where arty discipline suffers) or a slim lead (leading to reliance on the bonkers backbenchers).

    Far from being the heir to Thatcher, it looks like she's a pale shadow of John Major (who managed to pull the rabbit from the hat electorally).
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,764
    Blair got 35.2% in 2005 and 40.7% in 2001.

    Not a bad result for Corbyn to get 40%.
  • SDAddick
    SDAddick Posts: 14,467
    edited June 2017

    se9addick said:

    Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !

    Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.
    I mean being more charismatic than Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown is...damning with faint praise.

    I certainly take your point, and I have not followed this election as closely as I have past elections, but to close a ~20 point gap to...I think BBC were predicting it at like 3-4%. That's more than a bad May campaign. That's more than a good Corbyn campaign. That's turning people out because they WANT to vote for you. It's what we'd call a "wave" election. Even if Labour come up well short of a majority, you have to look at the mitigating factors.
  • mcgrandall
    mcgrandall Posts: 931

    LuckyReds said:

    A larger NI contingent in the government may introduce a more thoughtful Brexit negotiation with regards to border control, perhaps?

    If anything, I think it could lessen it to be honest. It might have been likely if it was the UUP. The DUP are quite hardline Brexit, and it is not uncommon to hear their members say that the answer is for Ireland to leave the EU as well.

    It would be interesting to see what the views of MPs in general will be - the proportion of anti-EU MPs may be greater. There's not a lot of time before negotiations begin.

    The two worst outcomes for May, other than losing, were either a massive majority (where arty discipline suffers) or a slim lead (leading to reliance on the bonkers backbenchers).

    Far from being the heir to Thatcher, it looks like she's a pale shadow of John Major (who managed to pull the rabbit from the hat electorally).

    Very reminiscent of the later Major government.
  • LuckyReds
    LuckyReds Posts: 5,866

    LuckyReds said:

    A larger NI contingent in the government may introduce a more thoughtful Brexit negotiation with regards to border control, perhaps?

    If anything, I think it could lessen it to be honest. It might have been likely if it was the UUP. The DUP are quite hardline Brexit, and it is not uncommon to hear their members say that the answer is for Ireland to leave the EU as well.

    It would be interesting to see what the views of MPs in general will be - the proportion of anti-EU MPs may be greater. There's not a lot of time before negotiations begin.

    The two worst outcomes for May, other than losing, were either a massive majority (where arty discipline suffers) or a slim lead (leading to reliance on the bonkers backbenchers).

    Far from being the heir to Thatcher, it looks like she's a pale shadow of John Major (who managed to pull the rabbit from the hat electorally).
    Blimey, there goes that theory! I guess it makes sense to an extent, considering their obvious views regarding the union.

    I'll have to do some reading, but have the DUP had a presence in government (i.e balancing a hung parliament) before? Perhaps rather naively, I initially figured it may have been quite a positive development - i.e better representation at Westminster.
  • SDAddick
    SDAddick Posts: 14,467
    John Woodcock being interviewed on BBC and all I can think about is how much I wish his parents had named him Richard.
  • DamoNorthStand
    DamoNorthStand Posts: 10,934
    edited June 2017
    se9addick said:

    se9addick said:

    Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !

    Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.
    Would you bet against him getting those extra 50 or so seats he needs in the second election that's blatantly coming our way shortly ?
    No I wouldn't. But at this moment in time he doesn't have them.......

    He would be mad to step in with a minority government and come across as power hungry. With Brexit disaster waiting to happen it would basically lose him any chance of said majority.

    If he is patient and waits - Brexit and the Tories forced to handle it will pass him the majority
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  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,168

    se9addick said:

    Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !

    Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.
    Only a few percent down on the overall vote share that labour achieved in 97.
  • DamoNorthStand
    DamoNorthStand Posts: 10,934
    Latest Beeb forecast has Labour down to 262.

    Tories up to 318 (they must have had Rudds seat as a Labour gain).

    Effective majority is 323 once speaker and Sinn Fein are out.

    They will be 5 over that with the DUP members.
  • NornIrishAddick
    NornIrishAddick Posts: 9,623
    LuckyReds said:

    LuckyReds said:

    A larger NI contingent in the government may introduce a more thoughtful Brexit negotiation with regards to border control, perhaps?

    If anything, I think it could lessen it to be honest. It might have been likely if it was the UUP. The DUP are quite hardline Brexit, and it is not uncommon to hear their members say that the answer is for Ireland to leave the EU as well.

    It would be interesting to see what the views of MPs in general will be - the proportion of anti-EU MPs may be greater. There's not a lot of time before negotiations begin.

    The two worst outcomes for May, other than losing, were either a massive majority (where arty discipline suffers) or a slim lead (leading to reliance on the bonkers backbenchers).

    Far from being the heir to Thatcher, it looks like she's a pale shadow of John Major (who managed to pull the rabbit from the hat electorally).
    Blimey, there goes that theory! I guess it makes sense to an extent, considering their obvious views regarding the union.

    I'll have to do some reading, but have the DUP had a presence in government (i.e balancing a hung parliament) before? Perhaps rather naively, I initially figured it may have been quite a positive development - i.e better representation at Westminster.
    I am biased, I'll admit, but I don't think there's much chance of balance/better representation if the DUP are kingmakers.

    I can't see any stable government, so another election may be likely this year.

    For what it's worth, the Tories wooing the SNP may be more in the country's interests (in terms both of preserving the Union and also on achieving a Brexit that works for more of us).
  • LuckyReds
    LuckyReds Posts: 5,866

    Latest Beeb forecast has Labour down to 262.

    Tories up to 318 (they must have had Rudds seat as a Labour gain).

    Effective majority is 323 once speaker and Sinn Fein are out.

    They will be 5 over that with the DUP members.

    Hopefully without a leader though; now picking a leader out of the current crop is going to be difficult.
  • aliwibble
    aliwibble Posts: 26,290
    LuckyReds said:

    Labour hold Hammersmith.

    This was one of the ones the Conservative's were targeting specifically. (A bit optimistic, as I couldn't see them grabbing anything extra in London... I thought that was pretty obvious!)

    It's particularly daft considering the constituency contains not one but two hospitals that are at risk of downgrade or closure.
  • LuckyReds
    LuckyReds Posts: 5,866
    Don't worry Theresa, you only need 29, and there's still 34 left to declare..
  • ken_shabby
    ken_shabby Posts: 6,255
    Shame about Rudd, but remembering how things looked a month zgo, this is astonishing. And looking at the hatefull May, really very funny
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 63,764
    edited June 2017
    Official exit poll:

    CON 314
    LAB 266
    SNP 34
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1

    Expected result with 37 to declare (seat difference to exit poll):

    CON 318 (+4)
    LAB 262 (-4)
    SNP 35 (+1)
    LD 13 (-1)
    PC 3
    GRN 1
  • SDAddick
    SDAddick Posts: 14,467

    Official exit poll:

    CON 314
    LAB 266
    SNP 34
    LD 14
    PC 3
    GRN 1

    Expected result (seat difference to exit poll):

    CON 318 (+4)
    LAB 262 (-4)
    SNP 35 (+1)
    LD 13 (-1)
    PC 3
    GRN 1

    We'll see what the vote shares look like but that looks like a damn fine exit poll.
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,168

    Latest Beeb forecast has Labour down to 262.

    Tories up to 318 (they must have had Rudds seat as a Labour gain).

    Effective majority is 323 once speaker and Sinn Fein are out.

    They will be 5 over that with the DUP members.

    Spin it how you like, having to go into coalition after an election that was only called because they saw an easy chance to extend their majority is a piss poor result for the Tories.
This discussion has been closed.