The General Election - June 8th 2017
Comments
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Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.se9addick said:Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !
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Amber Rudd holds on by 300 odd votes, boo.3
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Can you imagine the handshake for that one?SDAddick said:Here's a fun thing to imagine:
Jeremy Corbyn meeting Donald Trump.
Was that wotsisname Winnick's seat? He's completely batshit, so I'm if they have to lose one I'd rather it was him. Or maybe Kate Hoey.Callumcafc said:
BOOOOOOOOC_A_F_C said:Walsall North - First CON GAIN FROM LAB
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Hastings and Rye - Conservative Hold: Our Home Secretary scrapes through... just.
Amber Rudd (CON): 25,666
Peter Chwoeney (LAB): 25,322
LD: 1,885
UKIP: 14791 -
Shows how shit our electoral system is with 40% of the vote.DamoNorthStand said:
Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.se9addick said:Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !
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BOOOOOOOO2
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666. Appropriate.LuckyReds said:Hastings and Rye - Conservative Hold: Our Home Secretary scrapes through... just.
Amber Rudd (CON): 25,666
Peter Chwoeney (LAB): 25,322
LD: 1,885
UKIP: 14798 -
Would you bet against him getting those extra 50 or so seats he needs in the second election that's blatantly coming our way shortly ?DamoNorthStand said:
Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.se9addick said:Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !
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I've realised that I actually dislike most of the big Tory names. There hasn't been one seat I've seen that I haven't thought "meh, wouldn't give a crap - don't like them that much.".1
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Declan will be pleased.Addickted4life said:Amber Rudd holds on by 300 odd votes, boo.
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Sky have adjusted their estimate again, shaving 5 off what they think May can get. (315-321, and 260-266 respectively.)1
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If anything, I think it could lessen it to be honest. It might have been likely if it was the UUP. The DUP are quite hardline Brexit, and it is not uncommon to hear their members say that the answer is for Ireland to leave the EU as well.LuckyReds said:A larger NI contingent in the government may introduce a more thoughtful Brexit negotiation with regards to border control, perhaps?
It would be interesting to see what the views of MPs in general will be - the proportion of anti-EU MPs may be greater. There's not a lot of time before negotiations begin.
The two worst outcomes for May, other than losing, were either a massive majority (where arty discipline suffers) or a slim lead (leading to reliance on the bonkers backbenchers).
Far from being the heir to Thatcher, it looks like she's a pale shadow of John Major (who managed to pull the rabbit from the hat electorally).2 -
Blair got 35.2% in 2005 and 40.7% in 2001.
Not a bad result for Corbyn to get 40%.6 -
I mean being more charismatic than Ed Milliband and Gordon Brown is...damning with faint praise.DamoNorthStand said:
Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.se9addick said:Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !
I certainly take your point, and I have not followed this election as closely as I have past elections, but to close a ~20 point gap to...I think BBC were predicting it at like 3-4%. That's more than a bad May campaign. That's more than a good Corbyn campaign. That's turning people out because they WANT to vote for you. It's what we'd call a "wave" election. Even if Labour come up well short of a majority, you have to look at the mitigating factors.
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NornIrishAddick said:
If anything, I think it could lessen it to be honest. It might have been likely if it was the UUP. The DUP are quite hardline Brexit, and it is not uncommon to hear their members say that the answer is for Ireland to leave the EU as well.LuckyReds said:A larger NI contingent in the government may introduce a more thoughtful Brexit negotiation with regards to border control, perhaps?
It would be interesting to see what the views of MPs in general will be - the proportion of anti-EU MPs may be greater. There's not a lot of time before negotiations begin.
The two worst outcomes for May, other than losing, were either a massive majority (where arty discipline suffers) or a slim lead (leading to reliance on the bonkers backbenchers).
Far from being the heir to Thatcher, it looks like she's a pale shadow of John Major (who managed to pull the rabbit from the hat electorally).
Very reminiscent of the later Major government.1 -
Blimey, there goes that theory! I guess it makes sense to an extent, considering their obvious views regarding the union.NornIrishAddick said:
If anything, I think it could lessen it to be honest. It might have been likely if it was the UUP. The DUP are quite hardline Brexit, and it is not uncommon to hear their members say that the answer is for Ireland to leave the EU as well.LuckyReds said:A larger NI contingent in the government may introduce a more thoughtful Brexit negotiation with regards to border control, perhaps?
It would be interesting to see what the views of MPs in general will be - the proportion of anti-EU MPs may be greater. There's not a lot of time before negotiations begin.
The two worst outcomes for May, other than losing, were either a massive majority (where arty discipline suffers) or a slim lead (leading to reliance on the bonkers backbenchers).
Far from being the heir to Thatcher, it looks like she's a pale shadow of John Major (who managed to pull the rabbit from the hat electorally).
I'll have to do some reading, but have the DUP had a presence in government (i.e balancing a hung parliament) before? Perhaps rather naively, I initially figured it may have been quite a positive development - i.e better representation at Westminster.1 -
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John Woodcock being interviewed on BBC and all I can think about is how much I wish his parents had named him Richard.1
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No I wouldn't. But at this moment in time he doesn't have them.......se9addick said:
Would you bet against him getting those extra 50 or so seats he needs in the second election that's blatantly coming our way shortly ?DamoNorthStand said:
Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.se9addick said:Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !
He would be mad to step in with a minority government and come across as power hungry. With Brexit disaster waiting to happen it would basically lose him any chance of said majority.
If he is patient and waits - Brexit and the Tories forced to handle it will pass him the majority3 -
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Only a few percent down on the overall vote share that labour achieved in 97.DamoNorthStand said:
Shows how far the party had fallen when 265 odd seats gives him that tag. It's easy to forget that's still miles from a majority - and the sort of figures Blair was bringing in.se9addick said:Lots of Labour MPs with slightly red faces this morning after trying to run Corbyn out of town, turns out he's the most "electable" leader the party have had in a decade !
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Latest Beeb forecast has Labour down to 262.
Tories up to 318 (they must have had Rudds seat as a Labour gain).
Effective majority is 323 once speaker and Sinn Fein are out.
They will be 5 over that with the DUP members.1 -
I am biased, I'll admit, but I don't think there's much chance of balance/better representation if the DUP are kingmakers.LuckyReds said:
Blimey, there goes that theory! I guess it makes sense to an extent, considering their obvious views regarding the union.NornIrishAddick said:
If anything, I think it could lessen it to be honest. It might have been likely if it was the UUP. The DUP are quite hardline Brexit, and it is not uncommon to hear their members say that the answer is for Ireland to leave the EU as well.LuckyReds said:A larger NI contingent in the government may introduce a more thoughtful Brexit negotiation with regards to border control, perhaps?
It would be interesting to see what the views of MPs in general will be - the proportion of anti-EU MPs may be greater. There's not a lot of time before negotiations begin.
The two worst outcomes for May, other than losing, were either a massive majority (where arty discipline suffers) or a slim lead (leading to reliance on the bonkers backbenchers).
Far from being the heir to Thatcher, it looks like she's a pale shadow of John Major (who managed to pull the rabbit from the hat electorally).
I'll have to do some reading, but have the DUP had a presence in government (i.e balancing a hung parliament) before? Perhaps rather naively, I initially figured it may have been quite a positive development - i.e better representation at Westminster.
I can't see any stable government, so another election may be likely this year.
For what it's worth, the Tories wooing the SNP may be more in the country's interests (in terms both of preserving the Union and also on achieving a Brexit that works for more of us).1 -
Hopefully without a leader though; now picking a leader out of the current crop is going to be difficult.DamoNorthStand said:Latest Beeb forecast has Labour down to 262.
Tories up to 318 (they must have had Rudds seat as a Labour gain).
Effective majority is 323 once speaker and Sinn Fein are out.
They will be 5 over that with the DUP members.0 -
It's particularly daft considering the constituency contains not one but two hospitals that are at risk of downgrade or closure.LuckyReds said:Labour hold Hammersmith.
This was one of the ones the Conservative's were targeting specifically. (A bit optimistic, as I couldn't see them grabbing anything extra in London... I thought that was pretty obvious!)1 -
Don't worry Theresa, you only need 29, and there's still 34 left to declare..2
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Shame about Rudd, but remembering how things looked a month zgo, this is astonishing. And looking at the hatefull May, really very funny
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Official exit poll:
CON 314
LAB 266
SNP 34
LD 14
PC 3
GRN 1
Expected result with 37 to declare (seat difference to exit poll):
CON 318 (+4)
LAB 262 (-4)
SNP 35 (+1)
LD 13 (-1)
PC 3
GRN 12 -
We'll see what the vote shares look like but that looks like a damn fine exit poll.Callumcafc said:Official exit poll:
CON 314
LAB 266
SNP 34
LD 14
PC 3
GRN 1
Expected result (seat difference to exit poll):
CON 318 (+4)
LAB 262 (-4)
SNP 35 (+1)
LD 13 (-1)
PC 3
GRN 14 -
Spin it how you like, having to go into coalition after an election that was only called because they saw an easy chance to extend their majority is a piss poor result for the Tories.DamoNorthStand said:Latest Beeb forecast has Labour down to 262.
Tories up to 318 (they must have had Rudds seat as a Labour gain).
Effective majority is 323 once speaker and Sinn Fein are out.
They will be 5 over that with the DUP members.3
