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The General Election - June 8th 2017
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Best thing that could happen to the labour party. Wouldn't last two minutes. To command a minority government they would need real party discipline, if they were already under threat from this supposed internal hard brexit group, how can they work a smaller majority? Who can unify the party?SDAddick said:Huge surge for Labour who massively outperform leads to...Boris Johnson as the new Prime Minister? That'd be a real kick in the bollocks.
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Sky have adjusted their estimate, and brought it closer in line with the exit poll. Essentially predicting a hung parliament too now.1
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This is the issue. The other alternative is a Labour Party who, backslapping aside, are forecast to have less than 270 seats. That's not going to get their manifesto realised anytime soon.mcgrandall said:
Best thing that could happen to the labour party. Wouldn't last two minutes. To command a minority government they would need real party discipline, if they were already under threat from this supposed internal hard brexit group, who can unify the party?SDAddick said:Huge surge for Labour who massively outperform leads to...Boris Johnson as the new Prime Minister? That'd be a real kick in the bollocks.
I can't see how we won't be going again
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Apologies, there should probably some more context behind that; there was some commentary about her background on Sky News too. It's a lot more socially aware than you'd expect - stereotypically - from a Conservative candidate. Hence "Wow".Exiled_Addick said:
I know it's getting late there but can't we have just one thread that doesn't turn sex pest?LuckyReds said:Wow, who is the Conservative candidate for Vauxhall?
Edit: It's Dolly Theis.
I edited the post and put the photo in because she is, too, very pretty. However it's worth looking in to her back story too - I can't quite work out why a candidate like her has been placed in a constituency she will never be able to win, when in fact she's the kind of figurehead the party really need to appeal to the.. well, Corbyn demographic.1 -
First time all night that Labour and Conservative have been even; at the moment on 216 seats.
(Oh, it's 217 LAB now I've posted that.)0 -
I agree about how open they are and it is a good thing. I just think they are a bit behind the times, not really harnessed smart phone data and there is a real generational divide that tends to skew against the traditionally politicly unengaged.SDAddick said:
Hang on, to be fair as I said earlier their raw numbers were quite good, it was their skewing that messed things up.mcgrandall said:
There is an argument for them being banned as they influence voting intention.newyorkaddick said:
Begs the question what's the point of the polls?SDAddick said:
I didn't see that, but as someone who watches polling closely, this would indicate that the Exit Polls were VERY closeseriously_red said:
Somewhat different to the model suggested by @newyorkaddick ?Callumcafc said:NEW FORECAST:
CON 318
LAB 267
SNP 32
LD 11
PC 3
GRN 1
The methodology is very outdated and the data tends to focus on politically engaged voters, which skews when you compare to the nation. Especially in an election with, what looks like, an unprecedented make up of turn out like this one. In this day and age who answers a land line for fear of a PPI call or answers the door?
To their credit, British pollsters are very good about "showing their work" in terms of how they go from raw to predicted. This kind of sets them up to take a beating.
Also, entirely possible this will end up within margin of error.
Just saying there is an argument for them to be banned as they can influence voting intention and their credibility seem increasingly shot with each passing election. Not sure about them personally but I enjoy them.0 -
Alll good points, plus Jezza doesn't have to go to Brexit negotiations in 11 days' time, which would probably be nice. That one feels like a real poisoned chalice.mcgrandall said:
Best thing that could happen to the labour party. Wouldn't last two minutes. To command a minority government they would need real party discipline, if they were already under threat from this supposed internal hard brexit group, how can they work a smaller majority? Who can unify the party?SDAddick said:Huge surge for Labour who massively outperform leads to...Boris Johnson as the new Prime Minister? That'd be a real kick in the bollocks.
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Ah no, he just pretends to be an idiot rather than actually being one. Just what I look for in a leader.DamoNorthStand said:The only thing I will say is if BoJo is PM - it will become rapidly clear that comparisons to Diane Abbott were wide of the mark
Not that that's saying much0 - Sponsored links:
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OK.this is confusing now ITV and BBC at odds!0
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I'm going by BBC: 218 Labour, 215 Tory.0
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Conservative hold Bromley & Chislehurst.. no surprise there.
Aussie Chappie on Sky News has ripped in to the campaign, quite rightly asking WTF was up with the Tory manifesto.0 -
BBC is definitely behind.0
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Once bitten, twice shy?1 -
Pretty much the most important takeaway from this election IMO; a credible centre party is desperately needed. Get the Brexit issue out of the way, and get rid of Farron. Now's the time for the Lib Dems.1 -
Cons up to 249 and labour not yet past 2290
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Fair enough, I skipped a few pages as been doing my fatherly duty cooking dinner etc and couldn't face 550 unread posts.LuckyReds said:
Apologies, there should probably some more context behind that; there was some commentary about her background on Sky News too. It's a lot more socially aware than you'd expect - stereotypically - from a Conservative candidate. Hence "Wow".Exiled_Addick said:
I know it's getting late there but can't we have just one thread that doesn't turn sex pest?LuckyReds said:Wow, who is the Conservative candidate for Vauxhall?
Edit: It's Dolly Theis.
I edited the post and put the photo in because she is, too, very pretty. However it's worth looking in to her back story too - I can't quite work out why a candidate like her has been placed in a constituency she will never be able to win, when in fact she's the kind of figurehead the party really need to appeal to the.. well, Corbyn demographic.1 -
Sinn Fein gain a UUP seat; a pretty interesting exchange there!
Thanet South being announced now, 18,875 for LAB vs CON 25,261. Conservative Hold; despite the backdrop of electoral fraud investigations regarding expenses.0 - Sponsored links:
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No worries, mate. I was tempted to break out a cheeky little "Ding Dong" GIF to be honest, but thought it best not too.Exiled_Addick said:
Fair enough, I skipped a few pages as been doing my fatherly duty cooking dinner etc and couldn't face 550 unread posts.LuckyReds said:
Apologies, there should probably some more context behind that; there was some commentary about her background on Sky News too. It's a lot more socially aware than you'd expect - stereotypically - from a Conservative candidate. Hence "Wow".Exiled_Addick said:
I know it's getting late there but can't we have just one thread that doesn't turn sex pest?LuckyReds said:Wow, who is the Conservative candidate for Vauxhall?
Edit: It's Dolly Theis.
I edited the post and put the photo in because she is, too, very pretty. However it's worth looking in to her back story too - I can't quite work out why a candidate like her has been placed in a constituency she will never be able to win, when in fact she's the kind of figurehead the party really need to appeal to the.. well, Corbyn demographic.
She's genuinely got an interesting background though; as a young Tory I found it quite positive to see.0 -
ITV, been flicking between Beeb and This and ITV definitely ahead.0
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As it stands vs 2015, according to Sky News at 04:16.
CON: -10
LAB: +25
LD: +4
UKIP: -1
SNP: -18
May has really buggered this one up.2 -
Another local result; Bexley and Sidcup remains Conservative, just like Bromley and Chislehurst.
Eltham and Lewisham East have remained Labour. I'm not sure if there's been any changes locally?0 -
Jacob Reece Mogg gives me the creeps.1
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Cheers. They are well ahead!0
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I do wonder if the electorate will be angry if we are sent to the polls again in quick succession. I wonder where a lot of those early postal votes would be now after the 'dementia tax' and the police cuts mentioned over the last week. 1 in 4 are postal votes. I can't see anyone on the Conservative front bench, who in my opinion, can lead them to an increased majority. At the moment there is only one party that has political inertia/momentum (sorry).DamoNorthStand said:
This is the issue. The other alternative is a Labour Party who, backslapping aside, are forecast to have less than 270 seats. That's not going to get their manifesto realised anytime soon.mcgrandall said:
Best thing that could happen to the labour party. Wouldn't last two minutes. To command a minority government they would need real party discipline, if they were already under threat from this supposed internal hard brexit group, who can unify the party?SDAddick said:Huge surge for Labour who massively outperform leads to...Boris Johnson as the new Prime Minister? That'd be a real kick in the bollocks.
I can't see how we won't be going again0 -
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Anna Soubry holds her seat.0
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Farage claims that Paul Nuttel doesn't need to go; well I'd argue that he does, Nigel. In fact, I'd question whether a party without any seats is really required to have a leader in general.1
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