Huge surge for Labour who massively outperform leads to...Boris Johnson as the new Prime Minister? That'd be a real kick in the bollocks.
Best thing that could happen to the labour party. Wouldn't last two minutes. To command a minority government they would need real party discipline, if they were already under threat from this supposed internal hard brexit group, how can they work a smaller majority? Who can unify the party?
Huge surge for Labour who massively outperform leads to...Boris Johnson as the new Prime Minister? That'd be a real kick in the bollocks.
Best thing that could happen to the labour party. Wouldn't last two minutes. To command a minority government they would need real party discipline, if they were already under threat from this supposed internal hard brexit group, who can unify the party?
This is the issue. The other alternative is a Labour Party who, backslapping aside, are forecast to have less than 270 seats. That's not going to get their manifesto realised anytime soon.
Wow, who is the Conservative candidate for Vauxhall?
Edit: It's Dolly Theis.
I know it's getting late there but can't we have just one thread that doesn't turn sex pest?
Apologies, there should probably some more context behind that; there was some commentary about her background on Sky News too. It's a lot more socially aware than you'd expect - stereotypically - from a Conservative candidate. Hence "Wow".
I edited the post and put the photo in because she is, too, very pretty. However it's worth looking in to her back story too - I can't quite work out why a candidate like her has been placed in a constituency she will never be able to win, when in fact she's the kind of figurehead the party really need to appeal to the.. well, Corbyn demographic.
Somewhat different to the model suggested by @newyorkaddick ?
I didn't see that, but as someone who watches polling closely, this would indicate that the Exit Polls were VERY close
Begs the question what's the point of the polls?
There is an argument for them being banned as they influence voting intention.
The methodology is very outdated and the data tends to focus on politically engaged voters, which skews when you compare to the nation. Especially in an election with, what looks like, an unprecedented make up of turn out like this one. In this day and age who answers a land line for fear of a PPI call or answers the door?
Hang on, to be fair as I said earlier their raw numbers were quite good, it was their skewing that messed things up.
To their credit, British pollsters are very good about "showing their work" in terms of how they go from raw to predicted. This kind of sets them up to take a beating.
Also, entirely possible this will end up within margin of error.
I agree about how open they are and it is a good thing. I just think they are a bit behind the times, not really harnessed smart phone data and there is a real generational divide that tends to skew against the traditionally politicly unengaged.
Just saying there is an argument for them to be banned as they can influence voting intention and their credibility seem increasingly shot with each passing election. Not sure about them personally but I enjoy them.
Huge surge for Labour who massively outperform leads to...Boris Johnson as the new Prime Minister? That'd be a real kick in the bollocks.
Best thing that could happen to the labour party. Wouldn't last two minutes. To command a minority government they would need real party discipline, if they were already under threat from this supposed internal hard brexit group, how can they work a smaller majority? Who can unify the party?
Alll good points, plus Jezza doesn't have to go to Brexit negotiations in 11 days' time, which would probably be nice. That one feels like a real poisoned chalice.
Pretty much the most important takeaway from this election IMO; a credible centre party is desperately needed. Get the Brexit issue out of the way, and get rid of Farron. Now's the time for the Lib Dems.
Wow, who is the Conservative candidate for Vauxhall?
Edit: It's Dolly Theis.
I know it's getting late there but can't we have just one thread that doesn't turn sex pest?
Apologies, there should probably some more context behind that; there was some commentary about her background on Sky News too. It's a lot more socially aware than you'd expect - stereotypically - from a Conservative candidate. Hence "Wow".
I edited the post and put the photo in because she is, too, very pretty. However it's worth looking in to her back story too - I can't quite work out why a candidate like her has been placed in a constituency she will never be able to win, when in fact she's the kind of figurehead the party really need to appeal to the.. well, Corbyn demographic.
Fair enough, I skipped a few pages as been doing my fatherly duty cooking dinner etc and couldn't face 550 unread posts.
Sinn Fein gain a UUP seat; a pretty interesting exchange there!
Thanet South being announced now, 18,875 for LAB vs CON 25,261. Conservative Hold; despite the backdrop of electoral fraud investigations regarding expenses.
Wow, who is the Conservative candidate for Vauxhall?
Edit: It's Dolly Theis.
I know it's getting late there but can't we have just one thread that doesn't turn sex pest?
Apologies, there should probably some more context behind that; there was some commentary about her background on Sky News too. It's a lot more socially aware than you'd expect - stereotypically - from a Conservative candidate. Hence "Wow".
I edited the post and put the photo in because she is, too, very pretty. However it's worth looking in to her back story too - I can't quite work out why a candidate like her has been placed in a constituency she will never be able to win, when in fact she's the kind of figurehead the party really need to appeal to the.. well, Corbyn demographic.
Fair enough, I skipped a few pages as been doing my fatherly duty cooking dinner etc and couldn't face 550 unread posts.
No worries, mate. I was tempted to break out a cheeky little "Ding Dong" GIF to be honest, but thought it best not too.
She's genuinely got an interesting background though; as a young Tory I found it quite positive to see.
Huge surge for Labour who massively outperform leads to...Boris Johnson as the new Prime Minister? That'd be a real kick in the bollocks.
Best thing that could happen to the labour party. Wouldn't last two minutes. To command a minority government they would need real party discipline, if they were already under threat from this supposed internal hard brexit group, who can unify the party?
This is the issue. The other alternative is a Labour Party who, backslapping aside, are forecast to have less than 270 seats. That's not going to get their manifesto realised anytime soon.
I can't see how we won't be going again
I do wonder if the electorate will be angry if we are sent to the polls again in quick succession. I wonder where a lot of those early postal votes would be now after the 'dementia tax' and the police cuts mentioned over the last week. 1 in 4 are postal votes. I can't see anyone on the Conservative front bench, who in my opinion, can lead them to an increased majority. At the moment there is only one party that has political inertia/momentum (sorry).
Farage claims that Paul Nuttel doesn't need to go; well I'd argue that he does, Nigel. In fact, I'd question whether a party without any seats is really required to have a leader in general.
Comments
I can't see how we won't be going again
I edited the post and put the photo in because she is, too, very pretty. However it's worth looking in to her back story too - I can't quite work out why a candidate like her has been placed in a constituency she will never be able to win, when in fact she's the kind of figurehead the party really need to appeal to the.. well, Corbyn demographic.
(Oh, it's 217 LAB now I've posted that.)
Just saying there is an argument for them to be banned as they can influence voting intention and their credibility seem increasingly shot with each passing election. Not sure about them personally but I enjoy them.
Aussie Chappie on Sky News has ripped in to the campaign, quite rightly asking WTF was up with the Tory manifesto.
Once bitten, twice shy?
Pretty much the most important takeaway from this election IMO; a credible centre party is desperately needed. Get the Brexit issue out of the way, and get rid of Farron. Now's the time for the Lib Dems.
Thanet South being announced now, 18,875 for LAB vs CON 25,261. Conservative Hold; despite the backdrop of electoral fraud investigations regarding expenses.
She's genuinely got an interesting background though; as a young Tory I found it quite positive to see.
CON: -10
LAB: +25
LD: +4
UKIP: -1
SNP: -18
May has really buggered this one up.
Eltham and Lewisham East have remained Labour. I'm not sure if there's been any changes locally?