If the Tory rebels get their way and Boris becomes PM with Gove as deputy and the Moggster as Chancellor everything will be okay.
Not sure Uncle Rupert is that keen on Johnson. Can’t imagine Moggie being his cup of tea either. Gove is his man so he is not to be discounted totally.
I thought the received wisdom was that whilst Boris is beloved by the membership he is despised by (a large amount of) Tory MPs. Which would make it unlikely he would ever get on the final ticket, if he did he would probably win.
By the same token any remainer/moderate on the final ticket would be unlikely to win as the Tory membership is to the right. Any winner would have to be palatable to both sides of the Tory party which is why we have the current fudge of TM and why the rush to replace her isn't overwhelming.
I get the impression that some of the current lot were quite inspired by watching Spitting Image in the 80s and didn't realise it was satire, and decided to craft a public image by being a caricature.
I get the impression that some of the current lot were quite inspired by watching Spitting Image in the 80s and didn't realise it was satire, and decided to craft a public image by being a caricature.
What is happening now is what I said would happen. You have two sides in the Conservative party. The Brexiters were an annoyance a few years ago, but the referendum has given them power. The problem for them is, the vote was close and they know that Brexit is still not a certainty. Whilst polls are showing Remainers and Brexiters are around 50/50 over the population, they are also showing a clear majority want a soft Brexit. The Brexiters want a hard Brexit. The Remainers in the party see a hard Brexit as a disaster and would prefer no Brexit at all. They will do all they can to prevent Brexit.
May has a foot in both camps. She was a bit like Corbyn in that she was a reluctant Remainer who kept her head down in the referendum. She is the only person who can keep both sides of her party together, but even doing that is precarious. If she goes too far one way or the other, she is shot down by either side. Her weakness - post election, is used and exploited. The closer we get to Brexit, the closer the Conservative party will be to outright civil war. If May goes, both sides will fight for their candidates. It won't be pretty.
A fear from within the party is that the Conservative party is in danger of becoming UKIP. This is an incredibly dangerous period for the party and I think Anna Soubry understands that the party does need to kick out a few prominant Brexiters. But they have too much power. The question is how many Tory remainers feel as strongly as Soubry and Clarke. There doesn't need to be that many and I think we are close to an election.
The counter argument to an election is that Corbyn's Labour party is not offering the opportunity to remain in the EU. But if the election provides a massive backlash against Brexit - the Labour party does not have the rabid Brexiters who have so much power in the Conservative party. Having a vote on any agreed deal will probably be much easier to acheive. The Labour party won't offer it as it will lose them votes, but if the Tory remainers see no other way, they will take their chances on that. people should be under no illusions about that.
So what will they do? Call a snap election! May is caught between two irreconcilable outcomes for Brexit and the leaks clearly show the cost of a hard Brexit. M.Barnier is putting the heat on and they will only offer a Canada deal if the UK government doesn't put forward a clear position.
Some believe that the government will collapse in the Autumn. Perhaps that's why Corbyn et al aren't rushing to offer solutions. Three years have been wasted on this nonsense so far (including 2018) perhaps another two if the Tories squeeze through the next gate.
But many cannot see them remaining intact this year. Anna Soubry said that she would walk if Johnson/Gove/Mogg takeover. How many others are thinking same?
May has another few months before she has to call it either way. As posted last year, the Tories don't need to change, just die off! Perhaps break into two parties, UKIP mark 2 and a centre right mob in the conservative tradition?
I think @Stu_of_Kunming makes a good point, the floaters who only vote for one of the major two there's still a lot who wouldn't vote for Corbyn under almost any circumstances (I include myself in that group) despite the Tories being as bad as they've been for probably 20 years.
@MuttleyCAFC favourite Survation has labour still ahead by 3 points although down 2% (Tories up 3%).
I'd never trust a single poll. Not saying the above poll doesn't reflect current thinking, but crazy outlying polls don't tend to indicate an underlying trend
So the votes up for grabs from the implosion of UKIP predominantly went to the Tories so in effect it made the Tories stronger. Labour did indeed gain nothing.
So the votes up for grabs from the implosion of UKIP predominantly went to the Tories so in effect it made the Tories stronger. Labour did indeed gain nothing.
If they had gained nothing the defeat would have been even worse.
I suppose it's just easier for some people to believe only right wing nut jobs voted for brexit, the reality is quite different though.
I can get my head around why some people would not want to vote for Corbyn, but I can't get my head around why so many people would vote Tory*.
*usual caveats about reliability of polls.
if you don't want Corbyn in No.10 under any circumstances then voting Tory is the only way to ensure he doesn't get the keys
Whereas I’m the opposite - I’m completely against the Tories at all costs and I vote labour to keep them out
Some of them have shown in Brexit that they are okay, but the ones that are okay are the ones that don’t have any power or Influence (imo). The ones that weild the power are the horrible scroats of humanity like Gove, Johnson, Rees Mogg and Priti Patel
I would be quite happy for a coalition government led by Corbyn. For that to happen, the swing from the last election doesn't have to be very large at all and Labour doesn't even need more votes than the Conservatives.
I think it is very important that the Conservatives are not too far behind in the polls, neck and neck is preferable, as for there to be an early election, a Conservative rebellion is required. Happy for the gap to build during the campaign.
Comments
By the same token any remainer/moderate on the final ticket would be unlikely to win as the Tory membership is to the right. Any winner would have to be palatable to both sides of the Tory party which is why we have the current fudge of TM and why the rush to replace her isn't overwhelming.
May has a foot in both camps. She was a bit like Corbyn in that she was a reluctant Remainer who kept her head down in the referendum. She is the only person who can keep both sides of her party together, but even doing that is precarious. If she goes too far one way or the other, she is shot down by either side. Her weakness - post election, is used and exploited. The closer we get to Brexit, the closer the Conservative party will be to outright civil war. If May goes, both sides will fight for their candidates. It won't be pretty.
A fear from within the party is that the Conservative party is in danger of becoming UKIP. This is an incredibly dangerous period for the party and I think Anna Soubry understands that the party does need to kick out a few prominant Brexiters. But they have too much power. The question is how many Tory remainers feel as strongly as Soubry and Clarke. There doesn't need to be that many and I think we are close to an election.
The counter argument to an election is that Corbyn's Labour party is not offering the opportunity to remain in the EU. But if the election provides a massive backlash against Brexit - the Labour party does not have the rabid Brexiters who have so much power in the Conservative party. Having a vote on any agreed deal will probably be much easier to acheive. The Labour party won't offer it as it will lose them votes, but if the Tory remainers see no other way, they will take their chances on that. people should be under no illusions about that.
Some believe that the government will collapse in the Autumn. Perhaps that's why Corbyn et al aren't rushing to offer solutions. Three years have been wasted on this nonsense so far (including 2018) perhaps another two if the Tories squeeze through the next gate.
But many cannot see them remaining intact this year. Anna Soubry said that she would walk if Johnson/Gove/Mogg takeover. How many others are thinking same?
May has another few months before she has to call it either way. As posted last year, the Tories don't need to change, just die off! Perhaps break into two parties, UKIP mark 2 and a centre right mob in the conservative tradition?
I think @Stu_of_Kunming makes a good point, the floaters who only vote for one of the major two there's still a lot who wouldn't vote for Corbyn under almost any circumstances (I include myself in that group) despite the Tories being as bad as they've been for probably 20 years.
@MuttleyCAFC favourite Survation has labour still ahead by 3 points although down 2% (Tories up 3%).
*usual caveats about reliability of polls.
Clearly the Tories gained more from the UKIP implosion, but let's not pretend the Labour party gained nothing.
https://www.ft.com/content/dac3a3b2-4ad7-11e7-919a-1e14ce4af89b
I suppose it's just easier for some people to believe only right wing nut jobs voted for brexit, the reality is quite different though.
Some of them have shown in Brexit that they are okay, but the ones that are okay are the ones that don’t have any power or Influence (imo). The ones that weild the power are the horrible scroats of humanity like Gove, Johnson, Rees Mogg and Priti Patel
I think it is very important that the Conservatives are not too far behind in the polls, neck and neck is preferable, as for there to be an early election, a Conservative rebellion is required. Happy for the gap to build during the campaign.