This weekend so far - 5 away wins and one draw. Yes a lot of these were favourites (though two teams won at 11/4 and 5/2 respectively) but these away sides have to play at home every other week and their so called favouritism is simply not evidenced by their home form
Since the Bundesliga resumed we have had:
Home Wins - 10 Draws -15 Away Wins - 27
If we take out the home games for Bayern and Dortmund this becomes:
Home Wins - 6 Draws -15 Away Wins - 26
That is absolutely staggering - excluding the top two, the home side has only won 13% of games (6 out of 47) since the re-start. Once again, excluding those two sides, the home team won 40% of matches (79 from 199) before the break.
Even including all the teams in the League only 19% (10 out of 52) of games post break have been home wins as compared to 43% before the break (97 out of 224)
It will be very interesting to see if this is replicated in the Premier League but even more so in the Championship where the gap between the top and bottom sides is much narrower.
Today's 11 Championship matches produced:
Home wins - 1 Draws - 4 Away wins - 6
Of the 6 away wins only Brentford were favourites and they were only marginally so at that.
Monchengladbach need a point to secure the 4th champions league spot.
Bremen v Cologne Union Berlin v Dusseldorf
Dusseldorf should need just a point to secure the relegation play off spot, as Bremen would then need to win by 4 goals. Bremen have scored 1 goal at home in 7 games. If Dusseldorf lose then a Bremen win will take them into the play off.
Promotion could be decided today in the Bundesliga 2 where Bielefeld are already up.
Nurnbeg v Stuttgart Heidenheim v Hamburg (4th v 3rd)
Stuttgart will be all but mathematically promoted if they win and so do Heidenheim. If Stuttgart drop points then it opens the way for either of the other 2 and we could go into the last round with all 3 sides chasing the last promotion spot.
Stuttgart won 6-0 and barring a last day miracle are promoted.
Big drama as Heidenheim scored a 95th minute winner v Hamburg and leapfrog them into 3rd and a play spot. If they match Hamburgs result on the last day then Hamburg will miss out on promotion again.
4th time since lockdown that HSV have conceded crucial goals in injury time!
They were all so out of position in the 95th min. The right back was wrong side of the ball.....it was like HSV had pushed everyone up to try to get the winner, when a draw was a good result. Mental.
That said; on final day Heidenheim have to go to Bielefeld (Champions) and HSV are at home to Sandhausen. A loss for Heidenheim and a draw for HSV and HSV will get into play-offs on goal difference.
But same as last season, HSV seem to have blown it since Xmas. They clearly lack a leader at the back and have Papadopolous the Greek international training with the youth team because of an early season argument. They signed Joel Pohjanpolo on loan from Leverkusen in Jan and he's been brilliant...9 goals in 13 games....but it hasn't been enough. Plus the manager keeps taking him off, trying to hang onto leads and it has backfired every time. HSV smashed Stuttgart 6-2 in the first half of the season. What a turn around....
But, if you were Bielefeld; knowing you were going to struggle next season in the top league....would you let Heidenheim win and then hopefully get promoted in play-offs, knowing they would struggle like fuck next season too?!
This weekend so far - 5 away wins and one draw. Yes a lot of these were favourites (though two teams won at 11/4 and 5/2 respectively) but these away sides have to play at home every other week and their so called favouritism is simply not evidenced by their home form
Since the Bundesliga resumed we have had:
Home Wins - 10 Draws -15 Away Wins - 27
If we take out the home games for Bayern and Dortmund this becomes:
Home Wins - 6 Draws -15 Away Wins - 26
That is absolutely staggering - excluding the top two, the home side has only won 13% of games (6 out of 47) since the re-start. Once again, excluding those two sides, the home team won 40% of matches (79 from 199) before the break.
Even including all the teams in the League only 19% (10 out of 52) of games post break have been home wins as compared to 43% before the break (97 out of 224)
It will be very interesting to see if this is replicated in the Premier League but even more so in the Championship where the gap between the top and bottom sides is much narrower.
Today's 11 Championship matches produced:
Home wins - 1 Draws - 4 Away wins - 6
Of the 6 away wins only Brentford were favourites and they were only marginally so at that.
Whats more interesting is, there were quite a few home wins on the bundesliga and you didn't post that lol
Think the Bundesliga did itself a lot of favours by being the only major European league playing for a few weeks. I hadn’t watched too much before but the quality was good and it provided a great distraction from our current reality. Will be making a point to watch more next season.
Also at the bottom Nurnberg who were only relegated from the Bundesliga last year, could go down again after ending up in a relegation play off because Karlsruhe won and went above them on goal difference.
To cap HSV's day yesterday, their very promising Dutch defender, Rick Van Drongelen tore his ACL and will be out for 6 months minimum. A number of big clubs have been watching him, so that's a major blow.
I follow HSV very closely and their away form has cost them. So many draws and defeats and I think only 4 wins.
In truth, HSV would have struggled badly again in Bundesliga 1. Despite the huge membership and big home crowds, the club is skint. The worry now is that having had two seasons of Bundesliga 2, the crowds will drop off badly next season. By that, I mean from 40-50,000 down to 35-40,000. At least these past two seasons, the team has been near the top all the way through the season but if they start badly next season and slide into mid-table, it will be catastrophic.
The Manager, Dieter Hecking has good pedigree but has made some baffling choices in the last few weeks. He changed the goalkeeper when he'd done very little wrong and it looks to have upset the apple-cart. But do they change manager again? I've followed HSV for 15 years and the club has had 21 managers in that time!! The best two by a long way, being Huub Stevens and Martin Jol but they both seem a long time ago now.
Bayern beat Leverkusen 4-2 to win the German cup tonight. Lewandowski scored twice and now has 51 goals in 44 games this season.
Bayern surely have to be favourites for the CL, although the only thing that might go against them now is having a month off before it resumes.
Just seen the goals - the Bayern 3rd goal was a classic goalie blunder that made me chuckle.
As for CL, they are 3-0 up in the 1st leg aren't they? Should go through to the semis but, as you say, the fact that they wont have any more games now whilst Man City, Barca and Juve still playing league games could either go for or against them - im not sure which way it will go but i think Man City will win it myself.
Comments
Home wins - 1
Draws - 4
Away wins - 6
Of the 6 away wins only Brentford were favourites and they were only marginally so at that.
Monchengladback v Hertha
Leverkusen v Mainz
Monchengladbach need a point to secure the 4th champions league spot.
Bremen v Cologne
Union Berlin v Dusseldorf
Dusseldorf should need just a point to secure the relegation play off spot, as Bremen would then need to win by 4 goals. Bremen have scored 1 goal at home in 7 games. If Dusseldorf lose then a Bremen win will take them into the play off.
Promotion could be decided today in the Bundesliga 2 where Bielefeld are already up.
Nurnbeg v Stuttgart
Heidenheim v Hamburg (4th v 3rd)
Stuttgart will be all but mathematically promoted if they win and so do Heidenheim. If Stuttgart drop points then it opens the way for either of the other 2 and we could go into the last round with all 3 sides chasing the last promotion spot.
Big drama as Heidenheim scored a 95th minute winner v Hamburg and leapfrog them into 3rd and a play spot. If they match Hamburgs result on the last day then Hamburg will miss out on promotion again.
They were all so out of position in the 95th min. The right back was wrong side of the ball.....it was like HSV had pushed everyone up to try to get the winner, when a draw was a good result. Mental.
That said; on final day Heidenheim have to go to Bielefeld (Champions) and HSV are at home to Sandhausen. A loss for Heidenheim and a draw for HSV and HSV will get into play-offs on goal difference.
But same as last season, HSV seem to have blown it since Xmas. They clearly lack a leader at the back and have Papadopolous the Greek international training with the youth team because of an early season argument. They signed Joel Pohjanpolo on loan from Leverkusen in Jan and he's been brilliant...9 goals in 13 games....but it hasn't been enough. Plus the manager keeps taking him off, trying to hang onto leads and it has backfired every time. HSV smashed Stuttgart 6-2 in the first half of the season. What a turn around....
But, if you were Bielefeld; knowing you were going to struggle next season in the top league....would you let Heidenheim win and then hopefully get promoted in play-offs, knowing they would struggle like fuck next season too?!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/53078948
Really hope its Hamburg as that will be such a big game
But so are Hamburg
Hamburg back to 2-1 down
Hamburg have 25 minutes to find 1 goal
3-1 Sandhausen and game over
Hamburg really messed it up from the position they were in
Think Werder Bremen will feel confident about being Heidenhein especially after Heidenhein lost today 3-0
Was expected that Heidenheim wouldn't win away at champions Bielefeld so Hamburg knew a win would take probably them into the play off.
Heidenheim went 2-0 down early so Hamburg knew they only needed a point.
What did Hamburg do? Lost 5-1 at home!! Serial bottlers, good job the stadium was empty or they'd be rioting.
I follow HSV very closely and their away form has cost them. So many draws and defeats and I think only 4 wins.
In truth, HSV would have struggled badly again in Bundesliga 1. Despite the huge membership and big home crowds, the club is skint. The worry now is that having had two seasons of Bundesliga 2, the crowds will drop off badly next season. By that, I mean from 40-50,000 down to 35-40,000. At least these past two seasons, the team has been near the top all the way through the season but if they start badly next season and slide into mid-table, it will be catastrophic.
The Manager, Dieter Hecking has good pedigree but has made some baffling choices in the last few weeks. He changed the goalkeeper when he'd done very little wrong and it looks to have upset the apple-cart. But do they change manager again? I've followed HSV for 15 years and the club has had 21 managers in that time!! The best two by a long way, being Huub Stevens and Martin Jol but they both seem a long time ago now.
All to play for in the 2nd leg
Bayern surely have to be favourites for the CL, although the only thing that might go against them now is having a month off before it resumes.
Just seen the goals - the Bayern 3rd goal was a classic goalie blunder that made me chuckle.
As for CL, they are 3-0 up in the 1st leg aren't they? Should go through to the semis but, as you say, the fact that they wont have any more games now whilst Man City, Barca and Juve still playing league games could either go for or against them - im not sure which way it will go but i think Man City will win it myself.
Currently 7-0 up v Schalke with 15 minutes left. A 22nd consecutive win in all competitions.