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2018/2019 Betting Thread

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  • Think Truro are massive at Welling this weekend (6/1 Bet365).
    Ok, Welling are a lot higher up the league, have decent home form, but
    Truro gave Torquay (who I think will win the league) quite a game for some time earlier this week. Couple that with the fact that Welling are struggling for goals, their influential winger (N'Ghoul) is out injured (following being taken off after 5 mins against Dartford the other day), and Truro generally have given Welling a good game for the past couple of seasons. In fact I can't remember the last time Welling beat them.
    Going to have a go on away win, with Truro plus draw as a 7/4 cover.

    Nothing to add betting wise but a commentator saying “N’Ghoul ghosting in from the wing” needs a higher stage than conference south (or whatever they now play in)
  • Think Truro are massive at Welling this weekend (6/1 Bet365).
    Ok, Welling are a lot higher up the league, have decent home form, but
    Truro gave Torquay (who I think will win the league) quite a game for some time earlier this week. Couple that with the fact that Welling are struggling for goals, their influential winger (N'Ghoul) is out injured (following being taken off after 5 mins against Dartford the other day), and Truro generally have given Welling a good game for the past couple of seasons. In fact I can't remember the last time Welling beat them.
    Going to have a go on away win, with Truro plus draw as a 7/4 cover.

    Nothing to add betting wise but a commentator saying “N’Ghoul ghosting in from the wing” needs a higher stage than conference south (or whatever they now play in)
    that appalling pun would be totally unexspectred
  • Looking hard for any value today and can't find anything much appealing.

    Large single on Welling, another on Hearts, both at 1.44, then a string of short odds cup games to give about 3/1.
  • Think Truro are massive at Welling this weekend (6/1 Bet365).
    Ok, Welling are a lot higher up the league, have decent home form, but
    Truro gave Torquay (who I think will win the league) quite a game for some time earlier this week. Couple that with the fact that Welling are struggling for goals, their influential winger (N'Ghoul) is out injured (following being taken off after 5 mins against Dartford the other day), and Truro generally have given Welling a good game for the past couple of seasons. In fact I can't remember the last time Welling beat them.
    Going to have a go on away win, with Truro plus draw as a 7/4 cover.

    Ha. You couldn’t make it up.
    Robbo, you are shit at this.
  • Lesson in why you should never cash out under any circumstances, exhibit A:

  • edited January 2019
    If you’re going to cash out at five grand anyway, why would you even put a bet on at 58522/1? Do something that’s priced 1000/1 and give yourself a better chance?

    Or does the bloke not think the bet is going to win and so he’s basically throwing money away?
  • edited January 2019
    I mean at 58000/1 I suppose you’re not expecting any money back anyway which makes this whole thing pointless!

    Bottom line is, I just can’t get my head around people not betting with value on their side and then using cash outs to further line a bookmaker’s profits.
  • @bobmunro - are there any statistics on cash out amounts paid out versus what would have been paid out if bet left to run ?
  • Lesson in why you should never cash out under any circumstances, exhibit A:

    No.
    It's why you perm these bets.
    50p 6folds would of already seen 1 come in about £1400 cashout on 6 folds say £2500.
    He could of cashed out 6 folds and let the accy run
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  • edited January 2019
    MrOneLung said:

    @bobmunro - are there any statistics on cash out amounts paid out versus what would have been paid out if bet left to run ?

    Broadly speaking, cash-out as a whole adds about 0.3-0.5% points to the margin for the bookmaker. Overall margin around 4%.
  • I mean at 58000/1 I suppose you’re not expecting any money back anyway which makes this whole thing pointless!

    Bottom line is, I just can’t get my head around people not betting with value on their side and then using cash outs to further line a bookmaker’s profits.

    I never cash out, but i probably be close here. Yes its a £5 bet but £5k return and as mentioned could easily be lost, still if it was me easy to say might cash out probably still wouldn't. At least he won a decent amount anyway cant really grumble too much
  • clb74 said:

    Lesson in why you should never cash out under any circumstances, exhibit A:

    No.
    It's why you perm these bets.
    50p 6folds would of already seen 1 come in about £1400 cashout on 6 folds say £2500.
    He could of cashed out 6 folds and let the accy run
    How would that work exactly? Or do you mean rather than cashout, just bet on draws/other results that are not 2 + goals
  • edited January 2019

    clb74 said:

    Lesson in why you should never cash out under any circumstances, exhibit A:

    No.
    It's why you perm these bets.
    50p 6folds would of already seen 1 come in about £1400 cashout on 6 folds say £2500.
    He could of cashed out 6 folds and let the accy run
    How would that work exactly? Or do you mean rather than cashout, just bet on draws/other results that are not 2 + goals
    I think he means rather than betting £5 on a 7fold he could have done 7x50p 6 folds and then £1.50 on the 7 fold.
    That way 1 of the 6 folds would have been a winner before the final game. You could then cash out the other 6 x 6folds for big profit and let the 7fold ride.

    HOWEVER

    Looking at the odds of that bet I don't think it was a case that he had 6 results in and he was waiting for the last game which kicked off later. The cashout would/should be a lot higher in that case. More likely he's cashed out after game 5 or midway through game 6 imo
  • clb74 said:

    Lesson in why you should never cash out under any circumstances, exhibit A:

    No.
    It's why you perm these bets.
    50p 6folds would of already seen 1 come in about £1400 cashout on 6 folds say £2500.
    He could of cashed out 6 folds and let the accy run
    How would that work exactly? Or do you mean rather than cashout, just bet on draws/other results that are not 2 + goals
    The first paragraph of what Steve said.
    Has this bloke cashed out with a couple of games to go.
    Or his let it ride and cashed out when Leicester scored
  • clb74 said:

    clb74 said:

    Lesson in why you should never cash out under any circumstances, exhibit A:

    No.
    It's why you perm these bets.
    50p 6folds would of already seen 1 come in about £1400 cashout on 6 folds say £2500.
    He could of cashed out 6 folds and let the accy run
    How would that work exactly? Or do you mean rather than cashout, just bet on draws/other results that are not 2 + goals
    The first paragraph of what Steve said.
    Has this bloke cashed out with a couple of games to go.
    Or his let it ride and cashed out when Leicester scored
    Good call. Maybe he cashed out when Leicester equalised.
  • The winnings on 50p six and seven fold would be a fraction of that on the £5 all 7. If I could be bothered I'd work it out. Potentially I would say eachn6 fold about £3000 and the 7 about £10,000. So get all correct for about £30,000 tops as opposed to £292,000.
  • The winnings on 50p six and seven fold would be a fraction of that on the £5 all 7. If I could be bothered I'd work it out. Potentially I would say eachn6 fold about £3000 and the 7 about £10,000. So get all correct for about £30,000 tops as opposed to £292,000.

    In the example above the 7 x 6folds would return just over £51k for the £3.50 stake. Plus £1.50 on the 7fold would return almost £88k.
    Total of 139k from the fiver.
    Obviously less than the 292 but that’s the point perming the bet, a safety net that if 1 let’s you down you’ve still got a profit
    In this case that would be between £2400 and £11,700 depending on which selection lost.
  • The winnings on 50p six and seven fold would be a fraction of that on the £5 all 7. If I could be bothered I'd work it out. Potentially I would say eachn6 fold about £3000 and the 7 about £10,000. So get all correct for about £30,000 tops as opposed to £292,000.

    Ralph I'm saying he could of layed out another £3.50 on top of the £5
    He had would have had one 6 fold in already at £3000 the cashout for the other 6folds say another £3000 that's £6000 cash that out and let the accy ride.
    On another note 10p fivefolds would of paid £7000
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  • My bet is his let the bet run they were probably offering a lot less on cashout say £30k ,leceister scored and he thought £5,700 better than nothing
  • Eek just read that back and realised his total return was £292k not £29k, my bad :( thats gotta hurt!
  • clb74 said:

    The winnings on 50p six and seven fold would be a fraction of that on the £5 all 7. If I could be bothered I'd work it out. Potentially I would say eachn6 fold about £3000 and the 7 about £10,000. So get all correct for about £30,000 tops as opposed to £292,000.

    Ralph I'm saying he could of layed out another £3.50 on top of the £5
    He had would have had one 6 fold in already at £3000 the cashout for the other 6folds say another £3000 that's £6000 cash that out and let the accy ride.
    On another note 10p fivefolds would of paid £7000
    Ah I see, agree that would have been wise. As we all know bookies love this dream winning accumulators, as they very rarely pay out. With the prices involved in the bet I would definitely have permed. However, the £5000 is still a very nice pickup.
  • Not quite sure what is going on at Wrexham.
    Lost at home to Dover last weekend.
    They are away at Bromley tonight
    Bromley are evens.
  • Not quite sure what is going on at Wrexham.
    Lost at home to Dover last weekend.
    They are away at Bromley tonight
    Bromley are evens.

    Bromley are 8/5
  • And duly won 2-0.
  • Luton to finish outside top 6
    33/1
  • Not quite!!!!!!!!!

    Unlucky pal
  • Not quite!!!!!!!!!

    Unlucky sir, i did say to my friends will be 7nil but wouldn't put a bet on it :) freebet though that would have been lovely
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