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The mathematics of relegation

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  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,179
    up_the_valley said:
    superclive98 said:
    up_the_valley said:
    So. At this point we need 55 points to guarantee safety.
    Don't think so. How do you arrive at 55 points?
    Maths
    Show us your workings then!
  • up_the_valley
    up_the_valley Posts: 4,465
    edited March 14
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,928
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,179
    up_the_valley said:
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

    Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?
  • up_the_valley
    up_the_valley Posts: 4,465
    superclive98 said:
    up_the_valley said:
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

    Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?
    - 9 point lead we have on them. 
  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,179
    up_the_valley said:
    superclive98 said:
    up_the_valley said:
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

    Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?
    - 9 point lead we have on them. 
    What has our lead over them got to do with anything?
    They have 8 eight games left and could win them all, achieving a total of 63 points. How would 55 points for us help in that situation?
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,488
    edited March 14
    You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
    My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 


    So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

    I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

    It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

    Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 
  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,179
    Exiled_Addick said:
    You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
    My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 


    So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

    I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

    It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

    Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 
    Just have to make sure that we're fifth bottom (20th) at worse then.
  • Weegie Addick
    Weegie Addick Posts: 17,011
    up_the_valley said:
    superclive98 said:
    up_the_valley said:
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

    Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?
    - 9 point lead we have on them. 
    And this year’s Stuwall prize goes to…

    Thank you for giving me a good laugh. 😆 
  • up_the_valley
    up_the_valley Posts: 4,465
    Exiled_Addick said:
    You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
    My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 


    So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

    I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

    It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

    Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 
    You wait. We'll stay up by one point on 55. Mad genius.🤣😃

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  • valleynick66
    valleynick66 Posts: 5,266
    Avoiding defeat against Norwich means the pressure is on other teams. 

    Lose and we need favourable results elsewhere for Easter not to be frought. 
  • paulsturgess
    paulsturgess Posts: 4,215
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,179
    paulsturgess said:
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
    No, but I won't fully relax until we are mathematically safe.
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,488
    paulsturgess said:
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
    This thread is literally titled “The Mathematics of Relegation”. Hardly surprising that people are discussing the likelihood of relegation in mathematical terms, is it?

    I don’t think anyone on here thinks we will get relegated from here, but there’s still probably some points needed to make sure and people are speculating how many that is. 

    Genuine question, do you think we will still stay up if we lose all our remaining games?
  • jimmymelrose
    jimmymelrose Posts: 10,038
    Exiled_Addick said:
    You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
    My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 


    So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

    I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

    It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

    Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 
    Ok, so we need to stay above three teams




    and Leicester  ;)
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 35,297
    Exiled_Addick said:
    paulsturgess said:
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
    This thread is literally titled “The Mathematics of Relegation”. Hardly surprising that people are discussing the likelihood of relegation in mathematical terms, is it?

    I don’t think anyone on here thinks we will get relegated from here, but there’s still probably some points needed to make sure and people are speculating how many that is. 

    Genuine question, do you think we will still stay up if we lose all our remaining games?
    No. Not with 48 points (and probably a worse GD than everyone else  seeing as we will have lost 8 games by at least a goal). 

    The bottom 3 (excluding Sheff Wed) are currently picking up just over a point a game (according to the last 6 games played). With 8 games remaining I can see at least 2 of them getting another 8-10 points at least. 

    50 points could be messy trousers time.
    52 points could be squeaky bum time
    54 points will be pipe & slippers time.
  • paulsturgess
    paulsturgess Posts: 4,215
    Exiled_Addick said:
    paulsturgess said:
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
    This thread is literally titled “The Mathematics of Relegation”. Hardly surprising that people are discussing the likelihood of relegation in mathematical terms, is it?

    I don’t think anyone on here thinks we will get relegated from here, but there’s still probably some points needed to make sure and people are speculating how many that is. 

    Genuine question, do you think we will still stay up if we lose all our remaining games?
    fair point!

    but you generally only drill into the maths of something when it is likely to matter in the real world and it no longer does IMO

    I think if we managed to lose all 8 maybe 50-50
    if we managed to get just a single point from Sheff Wed I would take the bet
    if we won just a single more game it's definitive 

    i think we'll end up with 55+

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