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The mathematics of relegation
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Because Blackburn replaced Oxford as the critical team, as their potential final total points is now lower than Oxford's (55 against 56).PrincessFiona said:
why does it go down by only 1 point, as they drew and lost 2 potential points?Dave Rudd said:Confirmation that tonight's draw for Blackburn sees the R number drop to 7.
And Blackburn replace Oxford as the 'critical team'.
Let's be grateful for small mercies.
Hopefully, it will all change this afternoon with a win for us and a defeat for Oxford.0 -
Ah yes, of course.Crispywood said:
If Blackburn won yesterday and other 2 games they would have finished on 57 max.PrincessFiona said:
why does it go down by only 1 point, as they drew and lost 2 potential points?Dave Rudd said:Confirmation that tonight's draw for Blackburn sees the R number drop to 7.
And Blackburn replace Oxford as the 'critical team'.
Let's be grateful for small mercies.
Oxford can only get 56 max if they win all 4.Blackburn since they drew yesterday can only now get to 55.Hence Oxford’s 56 max now goes to Blackburn 55 max which is why it’s 1 point
If only we could just get the points ourselves!!!!3 -
Northupper said:
You need to look at the maximum points that could be obtained by teams below us. Before the game Oxford could get 56 points and Leicester 53 hence CAFC need 57 points to be safe and R =8. After the game Blackburn became critical as their maximum is now 55. Hence CAFC need 56 points and R = 7. Hope this helpsPrincessFiona said:
why does it go down by only 1 point, as they drew and lost 2 potential points?Dave Rudd said:Confirmation that tonight's draw for Blackburn sees the R number drop to 7.
And Blackburn replace Oxford as the 'critical team'.
Let's be grateful for small mercies.
Almost perfect. Thank you, my Child.
Amend Leicester's maximum total to 53 and you have spread the word wonderfully.3 -
Or put another way we are not mathematically safe.1
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Not until R = 0 or a minus number.valleynick66 said:Or put another way we are not mathematically safe.1 -
Or until we score 2 goals or more in a game ? 😆superclive98 said:
Not until R = 0 or a minus number.valleynick66 said:Or put another way we are not mathematically safe.3 -
I think R = 5 now, as Oxford lost and they replace Blackburn as critical again2
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Today's Derby 1-0 Oxford result and Leicester's similar defeat at Portsmouth represent the perfect outcome.
The R number now stands at 5 and Oxford regain their place as the 'critical team'.
Charlton Athletic ... you know what you have to do.6 -
Yep, Oxford’s maximum tally sits at 53, lower than Blackburn’s 55, and means we’d need 54 to be guaranteed safety. R = 54 - 49
Number stays at 5 should we lose today. A draw brings it down to 4 and a win down to 2.6 -
So we threw away the lead and R = 41
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The vital point at Hillsbrough (I'm trying to be positive here) sees R drop to 4.
Let's be grateful for small mercies.14 -
At least we didn't lose, which would have been the "Charlton" thing to do.6
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Callumcafc said:Yep, Oxford’s maximum tally sits at 53, lower than Blackburn’s 55, and means we’d need 54 to be guaranteed safety. R = 54 - 49
Number stays at 5 should we lose today. A draw brings it down to 4 and a win down to 2.
Also factor in we have a +2 Goal Difference over then and better scores over the two games (should it come to that).2 -
We have a better goal difference now but if it comes down to that we won't have at 3pm on May 2.JustFloydRoad said:Callumcafc said:Yep, Oxford’s maximum tally sits at 53, lower than Blackburn’s 55, and means we’d need 54 to be guaranteed safety. R = 54 - 49
Number stays at 5 should we lose today. A draw brings it down to 4 and a win down to 2.
Also factor in we have a +2 Goal Difference over then and better scores over the two games (should it come to that).10 -
If I was a neutral I'd be all over the 20/1 you can get on us going down. I honestly don't expect us to pick up any more points this season so all it'll take is Oxford getting a suprise win against Wrexham or Millwall, who might not have anything to play for on the last game of the season, to put us in real trouble.5
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Oxford have a better GD.JustFloydRoad said:Callumcafc said:Yep, Oxford’s maximum tally sits at 53, lower than Blackburn’s 55, and means we’d need 54 to be guaranteed safety. R = 54 - 49
Number stays at 5 should we lose today. A draw brings it down to 4 and a win down to 2.
Also factor in we have a +2 Goal Difference over then and better scores over the two games (should it come to that).
For us to end on the same points, say they win 3 games that’s automatically +3 GD to them (win all 3 games by 1 goal)1 win for us 2 losses or 3 draws automatically puts us on the same points as them but gives us a 0 or -1 GD (same goal difference in win and both losse)
That’s a 3/4 goal difference putting them above us. So very much R=41 -
Yesterday was our banker and we blew it. Getting any more points this season is going to be tough. While we could rely on others to do us a favour I can’t see Millwall winning their last game against Oxford. They will be in the playoffs and probably won’t want to lose any players to injury or suspension.I think we may be back in the 3rd tier next season.3
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They don’t necessarily have to win it just don’t lose. Depending on the circumstances they may need a win if top 2 or even the possibility they can avoid Southampton or Ipswich is on the cards. Failing to win against 2 of Wednesday Wrexham and Millwall would mean they can’t catch uscharltonkeston said:Yesterday was our banker and we blew it. Getting any more points this season is going to be tough. While we could rely on others to do us a favour I can’t see Millwall winning their last game against Oxford. They will be in the playoffs and probably won’t want to lose any players to injury or suspension.I think we may be back in the 3rd tier next season.0 -
The negativity is astonishing.
Yes we're limping over the line, but people are still expecting teams below us (for good reason too) to ALL go on to have promotion chasing form in their last games.
Crazy10 -
And who would have predicted Pompey to win at Boro and then trample all over Ipswich in consecutive games, having gone 8 games without a win going into those matches?sam3110 said:The negativity is astonishing.
Yes we're limping over the line, but people are still expecting teams below us (for good reason too) to ALL go on to have promotion chasing form in their last games.
Crazy2 -
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What's to say we can't get more points than expected in that case?superclive98 said:
And who would have predicted Pompey to win at Boro and then trample all over Ipswich in consecutive games, having gone 8 games without a win going into those matches?sam3110 said:The negativity is astonishing.
Yes we're limping over the line, but people are still expecting teams below us (for good reason too) to ALL go on to have promotion chasing form in their last games.
Crazy5 -
I'm far from confident but I'm pinning my hopes on 3 points against Hull next Saturday.Talal said:
What's to say we can't get more points than expected in that case?superclive98 said:
And who would have predicted Pompey to win at Boro and then trample all over Ipswich in consecutive games, having gone 8 games without a win going into those matches?sam3110 said:The negativity is astonishing.
Yes we're limping over the line, but people are still expecting teams below us (for good reason too) to ALL go on to have promotion chasing form in their last games.
Crazy
Hull haven't won at The Valley since 1978.0 -
OPTA have given us a 3% chance of being relegated. These boys don’t muck about.3
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I wish I had OPTA's confidence!CHG said:OPTA have given us a 3% chance of being relegated. These boys don’t muck about.4 -
I can't find a situation in the professional 24 team league, out of the Championship, League 1 and League a team has been relegated being 19th, 6 points clear and 3 games to go.superclive98 said:
I wish I had OPTA's confidence!CHG said:OPTA have given us a 3% chance of being relegated. These boys don’t muck about.
Statistically its less than 3%2 -
That makes absolutely no difference to my levels of confidence.llama_child_21cws said:
I can't find a situation in the professional 24 team league, out of the Championship, League 1 and League a team has been relegated being 19th, 6 points clear and 3 games to go.superclive98 said:
I wish I had OPTA's confidence!CHG said:OPTA have given us a 3% chance of being relegated. These boys don’t muck about.
Statistically its less than 3%12 -
Have Opta factored in the ‘Charlton’ effect?!8
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Leicester and Oxford are playing Hull and Wrexham on Tuesday night. If Leicester fail to win they can't catch us. If Oxford lose they can only finish ahead of us on goal difference, not impossible but unlikely. There's no guarantee they'll beat Sheff W away in their next game but I think Millwall might still be in with a chance of autos on the last day and want to beat Oxford, in which case we'd be safe.
It's like a hideous game of cards against humanity, but 50 points might just be enough. Bloody tight though.1 -
I’d have taken 50 points last summer but the manner we are finishing this season doesn’t give me any confidence that if we really had to get a couple of points we would be able to.It’s still in our hands and I would think those under us would swap places in a heartbeat but it’s hard to feel positive after the last few games especially yesterdays.2
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They are at home to WednesdayIdleHans said:Leicester and Oxford are playing Hull and Wrexham on Tuesday night. If Leicester fail to win they can't catch us. If Oxford lose they can only finish ahead of us on goal difference, not impossible but unlikely. There's no guarantee they'll beat Sheff W away in their next game but I think Millwall might still be in with a chance of autos on the last day and want to beat Oxford, in which case we'd be safe.
It's like a hideous game of cards against humanity, but 50 points might just be enough. Bloody tight though.0
