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The mathematics of relegation
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the same Charlton effect that had plenty of our fans saying Sheff Weds would beat us?LenGlover said:Have Opta factored in the ‘Charlton’ effect?!2 -
With the exception of a few top clubs whose fans expect them to win all the time, I reckon the majority of clubs have their own version of "The Charlton Effect". I think it's just so painful to get knocked back by unexpected defeats (and draws) that those are the ones that get most prominence in our memories.
I hope that's the case anyway.8 -
IdleHans said:Leicester and Oxford are playing Hull and Wrexham on Tuesday night. If Leicester fail to win they can't catch us. If Oxford lose they can only finish ahead of us on goal difference, not impossible but unlikely. There's no guarantee they'll beat Sheff W away in their next game but I think Millwall might still be in with a chance of autos on the last day and want to beat Oxford, in which case we'd be safe.
It's like a hideous game of cards against humanity, but 50 points might just be enough. Bloody tight though.
So if results on Tuesday go in our favour would we be in a position to stay up on Wednesday if we didnt lose?2 -
but if we don't get points and they do, their GD will improve and ours will get worseJustFloydRoad said:Callumcafc said:Yep, Oxford’s maximum tally sits at 53, lower than Blackburn’s 55, and means we’d need 54 to be guaranteed safety. R = 54 - 49
Number stays at 5 should we lose today. A draw brings it down to 4 and a win down to 2.
Also factor in we have a +2 Goal Difference over then and better scores over the two games (should it come to that).3 -
but they are still battling to secure a play off spot, unfortunatelysuperclive98 said:
I'm far from confident but I'm pinning my hopes on 3 points against Hull next Saturday.Talal said:
What's to say we can't get more points than expected in that case?superclive98 said:
And who would have predicted Pompey to win at Boro and then trample all over Ipswich in consecutive games, having gone 8 games without a win going into those matches?sam3110 said:The negativity is astonishing.
Yes we're limping over the line, but people are still expecting teams below us (for good reason too) to ALL go on to have promotion chasing form in their last games.
Crazy
Hull haven't won at The Valley since 1978.0 -
This will go down to the final day.1
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I don't think it will, Leicester and Oxford will be down by then.J BLOCK said:This will go down to the final day.
But we're lucky that Leicester had a points deduction or it would be.
We need to improve a lot next season to not be in a similar fight again.5 -
I'm no mathematician but if Oxford lose then we need one point from 3 games.... But that still sounds tough after the last few weeks.. However pressure works both ways and if Wall and Southampton win on Tuesday then Ipswich will be nervy... We just need to be ready for that which is a huge task but with us you never know what your going to get.
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Over the span of three games anything is possible, as Portsmouth have shown. If we were talking about 6 or 8 games then I’d agree with you.sam3110 said:The negativity is astonishing.
Yes we're limping over the line, but people are still expecting teams below us (for good reason too) to ALL go on to have promotion chasing form in their last games.
Crazy
It’s small chance but it’s a chance nonetheless. Annoying that we’ve gone from sub 0.5% chance to 3% ish over the last couple of weeks according to the stattos at Opta.0 -
peterreeves said:I'm no mathematician but if Oxford lose then we need one point from 3 games.... But that still sounds tough after the last few weeks.. However pressure works both ways and if Wall and Southampton win on Tuesday then Ipswich will be nervy... We just need to be ready for that which is a huge task but with us you never know what your going to get.
With the R number at 4 then however that is diminished to 0, and the quicker the better, is all good. We can then start the panic about next season. Oxford could lose to Wrexham and we win the next day or get a draw and we've done it. More likely they draw and we lose (then R=2 i think), or both lose (R=1) and the pain continues.
Millwall (who i presume you meant by referring to 'Wall') are away at Stoke on Tuesday, and Southampton home to Bristol City. I can't get my head round how Ipswich will feel and didn't see their game today with Middlesbrough, but based on what we've seen before at home will be going with my usual -1/2/3 handicap for Ipswich combined with another side dishing out a thrashing (not sure who yet), and brace myself for the worst.
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Oops, quite right. Cheers.bolloxbolder said:
They are at home to WednesdayIdleHans said:Leicester and Oxford are playing Hull and Wrexham on Tuesday night. If Leicester fail to win they can't catch us. If Oxford lose they can only finish ahead of us on goal difference, not impossible but unlikely. There's no guarantee they'll beat Sheff W away in their next game but I think Millwall might still be in with a chance of autos on the last day and want to beat Oxford, in which case we'd be safe.
It's like a hideous game of cards against humanity, but 50 points might just be enough. Bloody tight though.0 -
Anyone know how many points clear we were of Barnsley with three to go in 19/20?0
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Weegie Addick said:Anyone know how many points clear we were of Barnsley with three to go in 19/20?
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Difference is our strikers have been on strike longer this time 😆9
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but if we match them on Pts + GD then we still did better than them over the two gamesPrincessFiona said:
but if we don't get points and they do, their GD will improve and ours will get worseJustFloydRoad said:Callumcafc said:Yep, Oxford’s maximum tally sits at 53, lower than Blackburn’s 55, and means we’d need 54 to be guaranteed safety. R = 54 - 49
Number stays at 5 should we lose today. A draw brings it down to 4 and a win down to 2.
Also factor in we have a +2 Goal Difference over then and better scores over the two games (should it come to that).0 -
We’ve lost 3 games in a row once this season, confident we can at least pick up 1 point from the final 3. Hull have 2 wins in 9, we’ve proved we can get at Ipswich already, and Swansea have 1 win in 6 and on the beach.Even if that doesn’t happen both Oxford winning 2 in 3 games and Blackburn winning 1 from 2 is a big ask8
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I think we normally better against the top half of the division.2
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We need to be.Solidgone said:I think we normally better against the top half of the division.0 -
People are assuming Oxford is going to be SW. I could see that as a draw2
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Agreed. Playing with zero pressure. 3 games unbeaten currentlyBostonaddick said:People are assuming Oxford is going to be SW. I could see that as a draw0 -
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but their GD would improve by at least 1 per game they win and ours would get worse by at least 1 per game, which would be mean the GD couldn't end up the sameJustFloydRoad said:
but if we match them on Pts + GD then we still did better than them over the two gamesPrincessFiona said:
but if we don't get points and they do, their GD will improve and ours will get worseJustFloydRoad said:Callumcafc said:Yep, Oxford’s maximum tally sits at 53, lower than Blackburn’s 55, and means we’d need 54 to be guaranteed safety. R = 54 - 49
Number stays at 5 should we lose today. A draw brings it down to 4 and a win down to 2.
Also factor in we have a +2 Goal Difference over then and better scores over the two games (should it come to that).1 -
Oxford win tonight: R = 4
Oxford draw tonight: R = 2
Oxford lose tonight: R = 110 -
could Leicester be relegated tonight if they lose and Oxford win?0
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Leicester are down if they don't win. If they do win they won't be as Blackburn aren't playing.Arsenetatters said:could Leicester be relegated tonight if they lose and Oxford win?1 -
Leicester have to win all 3 games or they can't catch two other teams.Arsenetatters said:could Leicester be relegated tonight if they lose and Oxford win?
So if they don't win tonight they are down, whatever Oxford do.
They could also win and be relegated by West Brom and Blackburn winning tonight/tomorrow and us picking up at least a point.1 -
Anything other than an Oxford loss tonight is bad news for us.0
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A draw is ok, means they would still need to win one and draw one against Millwall and Wednesday to catch us and that’s presuming we don’t pick up at least 1 point in 3 games and we’ve only managed 3 losses consecutively once this entire season.J BLOCK said:Anything other than an Oxford loss tonight is bad news for us.
a draw today and 2 wins against Wednesday and Millwall and then it becomes much tricker as we would need 1 win opposed to 1 draw.1 -
That's 5 points, they are 6 behind us.Crispywood said:
A draw is ok, means they would still need to win one and draw one against Millwall and Wednesday to catch us and that’s presuming we don’t pick up at least 1 point in 3 games and we’ve only managed 3 losses consecutively once this entire season.J BLOCK said:Anything other than an Oxford loss tonight is bad news for us.
a draw today and 2 wins against Wednesday and Millwall and then it becomes much tricker as we would need 1 win opposed to 1 draw.0 -
Even better in which case a draw only really hurts us if they beat Millwall and Wednesday meaning we’d have to draw 2 instead of 1 but that’s if Wednesday and Millwall both get turned overNorth Lower Neil said:
That's 5 points, they are 6 behind us.Crispywood said:
A draw is ok, means they would still need to win one and draw one against Millwall and Wednesday to catch us and that’s presuming we don’t pick up at least 1 point in 3 games and we’ve only managed 3 losses consecutively once this entire season.J BLOCK said:Anything other than an Oxford loss tonight is bad news for us.
a draw today and 2 wins against Wednesday and Millwall and then it becomes much tricker as we would need 1 win opposed to 1 draw.0 -
So if Oxford lose tonight and we win tomorrow does that make us safe?
This is squeezing my brain1
