The mathematics of relegation

MartinCAFC

LenGlover said:

Have Opta factored in the ‘Charlton’ effect?!

the same Charlton effect that had plenty of our fans saying Sheff Weds would beat us?

Stig

With the exception of a few top clubs whose fans expect them to win all the time, I reckon the majority of clubs have their own version of "The Charlton Effect". I think it's just so painful to get knocked back by unexpected defeats (and draws) that those are the ones that get most prominence in our memories.

I hope that's the case anyway.

Arsenetatters

IdleHans said:

Leicester and Oxford are playing Hull and Wrexham on Tuesday night. If Leicester fail to win they can't catch us. If Oxford lose they can only finish ahead of us on goal difference, not impossible but unlikely. There's no guarantee they'll beat Sheff W away in their next game but I think Millwall might still be in with a chance of autos on the last day and want to beat Oxford, in which case we'd be safe.
It's like a hideous game of cards against humanity, but 50 points might just be enough. Bloody tight though.

So if results on Tuesday go in our favour would we be in a position to stay up on Wednesday if we didnt lose?

PrincessFiona

JustFloydRoad said:

Callumcafc said:

Yep, Oxford’s maximum tally sits at 53, lower than Blackburn’s 55, and means we’d need 54 to be guaranteed safety. R = 54 - 49

Number stays at 5 should we lose today. A draw brings it down to 4 and a win down to 2.

Also factor in we have a +2 Goal Difference over then and better scores over the two games (should it come to that).

but if we don't get points and they do, their GD will  improve and ours will get worse

PrincessFiona

superclive98 said:

Talal said:

superclive98 said:

sam3110 said:

The negativity is astonishing.

Yes we're limping over the line, but people are still expecting teams below us (for good reason too) to ALL go on to have promotion chasing form in their last games. 

Crazy

And who would have predicted Pompey to win at Boro and then trample all over Ipswich in consecutive games, having gone 8 games without a win going into those matches?

What's to say we can't get more points than expected in that case?

I'm far from confident but I'm pinning my hopes on 3 points against Hull next Saturday.
Hull haven't won at The Valley since 1978.

but they are still battling to secure a play off spot, unfortunately

J BLOCK

This will go down to the final day. 

North Lower Neil

J BLOCK said:

This will go down to the final day. 

I don't think it will, Leicester and Oxford will be down by then.

But we're lucky that Leicester had a points deduction or it would be.

We need to improve a lot next season to not be in a similar fight again.

peterreeves

I'm no mathematician but if Oxford lose then we need one point from 3 games.... But that still sounds tough after the last few weeks.. However pressure works both ways and if Wall and Southampton win on Tuesday then Ipswich will be nervy... We just need to be ready for that which is a huge task but with us you never know what your going to get. 

Callumcafc

sam3110 said:

The negativity is astonishing.

Yes we're limping over the line, but people are still expecting teams below us (for good reason too) to ALL go on to have promotion chasing form in their last games. 

Crazy

Over the span of three games anything is possible, as Portsmouth have shown. If we were talking about 6 or 8 games then I’d agree with you.

It’s small chance but it’s a chance nonetheless. Annoying that we’ve gone from sub 0.5% chance to 3% ish over the last couple of weeks according to the stattos at Opta.

swords_alive

peterreeves said:

I'm no mathematician but if Oxford lose then we need one point from 3 games.... But that still sounds tough after the last few weeks.. However pressure works both ways and if Wall and Southampton win on Tuesday then Ipswich will be nervy... We just need to be ready for that which is a huge task but with us you never know what your going to get. 

With the R number at 4 then however that is diminished to 0, and the quicker the better, is all good. We can then start the panic about next season. Oxford could lose to Wrexham and we win the next day or get a draw and we've done it. More likely they draw and we lose (then R=2 i think), or both lose (R=1) and the pain continues.

Millwall (who i presume you meant by referring to 'Wall') are away at Stoke on Tuesday, and Southampton home to Bristol City. I can't get my head round how Ipswich will feel and didn't see their game today with Middlesbrough, but based on what we've seen before at home will be going with my usual -1/2/3 handicap for Ipswich combined with another side dishing out a thrashing (not sure who yet), and brace myself for the worst.  

IdleHans

bolloxbolder said:

IdleHans said:

Leicester and Oxford are playing Hull and Wrexham on Tuesday night. If Leicester fail to win they can't catch us. If Oxford lose they can only finish ahead of us on goal difference, not impossible but unlikely. There's no guarantee they'll beat Sheff W away in their next game but I think Millwall might still be in with a chance of autos on the last day and want to beat Oxford, in which case we'd be safe.
It's like a hideous game of cards against humanity, but 50 points might just be enough. Bloody tight though.

They are at home to Wednesday 

Oops, quite right. Cheers.

Weegie Addick

Anyone know how many points clear we were of Barnsley with three to go in 19/20?

addix

Weegie Addick said:

Anyone know how many points clear we were of Barnsley with three to go in 19/20?

valleynick66

Difference is our strikers have been on strike longer this time 😆 

JustFloydRoad

PrincessFiona said:

JustFloydRoad said:

Callumcafc said:

Yep, Oxford’s maximum tally sits at 53, lower than Blackburn’s 55, and means we’d need 54 to be guaranteed safety. R = 54 - 49

Number stays at 5 should we lose today. A draw brings it down to 4 and a win down to 2.

Also factor in we have a +2 Goal Difference over then and better scores over the two games (should it come to that).

but if we don't get points and they do, their GD will  improve and ours will get worse

but if we match them on Pts + GD then we still did better than them over the two games

Crispywood

We’ve lost 3 games in a row once this season, confident we can at least pick up 1 point from the final 3. Hull have 2 wins in 9, we’ve proved we can get at Ipswich already, and Swansea have 1 win in 6 and on the beach. 

Even if that doesn’t happen both Oxford winning 2 in 3 games and Blackburn winning 1 from 2 is a big ask 

Solidgone

I think we normally better against the top half of the division. 

superclive98

Solidgone said:

I think we normally better against the top half of the division. 

We need to be.

Bostonaddick

People are assuming Oxford is going to be SW.  I could see that as a draw

CHG

Bostonaddick said:

People are assuming Oxford is going to be SW.  I could see that as a draw

Agreed. Playing with zero pressure. 3 games unbeaten currently