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The mathematics of relegation
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Are you going to send Ipswich the memo?Sage said:Draw tomorrow, get it done and be safe going into Saturday’s game being able to enjoy it.
A draw mean Ipswich are 2 off 2nd with a game in hand and superior goal difference. Millwall won’t win their last 2, they’ll bottle it somewhere, meaning Ipswich need 7 from their last 4. Let’s get 1 point each tomorrow and Ipswich can win 2 of their last 3 and clinch 2nd on goal difference.6 -
What do you mean? R = 0 is meant to indicate mathematical certainty of our safety. We aren’t mathematically safe so it would be a bit silly if we made R = 0 now.se9addick said:Hold on - thought we didn’t count goal difference in this methodology? Which means R = 0?!0 -
se9addick said:Hold on - thought we didn’t count goal difference in this methodology? Which means R = 0?!
Correct.se9addick said:Hold on - thought we didn’t count goal difference in this methodology? Which means R = 0?!
Explain? We have no idea what the various Goal Differences will be. It has no part to play here.1 -
Agreed, can't understand anyone wanting an Ipswich win, f Millwall.Sage said:Draw tomorrow, get it done and be safe going into Saturday’s game being able to enjoy it.
A draw mean Ipswich are 2 off 2nd with a game in hand and superior goal difference. Millwall won’t win their last 2, they’ll bottle it somewhere, meaning Ipswich need 7 from their last 4. Let’s get 1 point each tomorrow and Ipswich can win 2 of their last 3 and clinch 2nd on goal difference.
Survival is what matters to us, if it comes at the cost of them going up, so be it. I'd rather be safe as soon as possible.
I can also see Ipswich beating QPR and West Brom minimum.15 -
To stay up Oxford need to win at Millwall on the final day, in a game Millwall will need to win to either go up or finish 3rd and get the best Play Off spot.
Given Oxford have the second worst away record in the league, that seems rather unlikely, although not impossible, obviously.
Our best shot at another win is probably against Hull who were average against Leicester and haven't won in five games.2 -
Not entirely true. We don’t know what the exact goal difference will be but there are two possible outcomes.Dave Rudd said:se9addick said:Hold on - thought we didn’t count goal difference in this methodology? Which means R = 0?!
Correct.se9addick said:Hold on - thought we didn’t count goal difference in this methodology? Which means R = 0?!
Explain? We have no idea what the various Goal Differences will be. It has no part to play here.1) We stay up on points but at least drawing one more game.2) We are relegated on goal difference because for that to happen we must lose all 3 of our remaining games which will result in at least a -3 goal difference for us and put us on -15 overall or worse. Oxford would have to be win both their games meaning a minimum +2 for them and then finishing with -13 or better.It’s impossible for us to finish level on points with Oxford and have a superior goal difference.4 -
Exiled_Addick said:
Not entirely true. We don’t know what the exact goal difference will be but there are two possible outcomes.Dave Rudd said:se9addick said:Hold on - thought we didn’t count goal difference in this methodology? Which means R = 0?!
Correct.se9addick said:Hold on - thought we didn’t count goal difference in this methodology? Which means R = 0?!
Explain? We have no idea what the various Goal Differences will be. It has no part to play here.1) We stay up on points but at least drawing one more game.2) We are relegated on goal difference because for that to happen we must lose all 3 of our remaining games which will result in at least a -3 goal difference for us and put us on -15 overall or worse. Oxford would have to be win both their games meaning a minimum +2 for them and then finishing with -13 or better.It’s impossible for us to finish level on points with Oxford and have a superior goal difference.
Correct.
What will the final Goal Differences be?
Whatever your guess (and 'guess' is what it will be), they will have no effect on the R number.
If we get relegated on Goal Difference it will be because R=1 (not zero) irrespective of whatever our and Oxford's Goal Difference might be.2 -
EVERYONE IS DISCOUNTING BLACKBURN WHEN DOING THE GOAL DIFFERENCE THING
We may still lose every game and Oxford win every game but we both stay up because Blackburn fail to get more than one point from Sheff Utd and Leicester.10 -
Blackburn will batter LeicesterCallumcafc said:EVERYONE IS DISCOUNTING BLACKBURN WHEN DOING THE GOAL DIFFERENCE THING
We may still lose every game and Oxford win every game but we both stay up because Blackburn fail to get more than one point from Sheff Utd and Leicester.1 -
Goal difference relegation would be the worst as we would all have to admit Golfie was right all year. No issues with admitting Golfie is right but the circumstances would make it rather stick in the throat so a draw or win from these last games would be good pls Nathan and teamCallumcafc said:R = 1
Effectively the only way Charlton are now relegated is if:
- Charlton lose to Ipswich, Hull and Swansea
- Oxford beat Sheffield Wednesday and Millwall
- Blackburn get one point or more from Sheffield United and Leicester
Even then, it would come down to goal difference between the teams involved.3 -
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Also I have been to see Ed Sheeran more times than I care to remember, cant stand him live but gf has always been keen to go. Surely my pain counts for something Ipswich?6
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I hear his music on the radio regularly, that is painful enough without seeing him live.Alwaysneil said:Also I have been to see Ed Sheeran more times than I care to remember, cant stand him live but gf has always been keen to go. Surely my pain counts for something Ipswich?1 -
Can mathematician's out there tell me the R number on the opening day next season?.0
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69?0
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One clean sheet from three games to stay up...4
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Time to belt out Addicks to victory before the game tonight to get everyone pumped up?jams said:One clean sheet from three games to stay up...5 -
I thought thought that at first, on the basis that the most points the team in 22nd could get would be if every team won and lost 23 matches. But that would still mean any team could get relegated on goal difference. So to be mathematically safe the r number would have to be 70 wouldn't it?Northern_Monkey said:69?0 -
3 of the least attacking performances ever seen coming right upBigRedEvil said:
Time to belt out Addicks to victory before the game tonight to get everyone pumped up?jams said:One clean sheet from three games to stay up...1 -
Just did a little working out on paper and the answer is 76.cashncarry said:Can mathematician's out there tell me the R number on the opening day next season?.75 is the highest number of points you can theoretically be relegated with.
Reasoning:
Assume the highest possible points total 3rd from bottom might achieve.
For this, you need to assume there are no draws (so there are always 3 points shared, not 2).
Assume two teams are totally cut adrift at the bottom, maximising everyone else’s points and we’re only trying to avoid 22nd place. Also assume goal difference is not in our favour.
There are a total of 12x46 matches in a season, meaning potentially 12x46x3 = 1656 points available.The two matches between the two bottom sides are irrelevant for this, so subtract 6 and you get 1650 points.Divide this total by the remaining 22 sides and you get 75 points each. (This occurs, for example if everyone wins all their home games [23x3points] and loses all their away games except for the two away games against the bottom two [2x3points]).Therefore, assuming our goal difference is the worst of those 22 teams, we’ll need to convert one of those away defeats into a draw to reach 76 points (to become champions!) while Millwall (hopefully) are relegated on 73.9 -
Stig said:
I thought thought that at first, on the basis that the most points the team in 22nd could get would be if every team won and lost 23 matches. But that would still mean any team could get relegated on goal difference. So to be mathematically safe the r number would have to be 70 wouldn't it?Northern_Monkey said:69?
R =78 would be my calculation. I could be wrong though!0 -
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Brilliantlordromford said:
Just did a little working out on paper and the answer is 76.cashncarry said:Can mathematician's out there tell me the R number on the opening day next season?.75 is the highest number of points you can theoretically be relegated with.
Reasoning:
Assume the highest possible points total 3rd from bottom might achieve.
For this, you need to assume there are no draws (so there are always 3 points shared, not 2).
Assume two teams are totally cut adrift at the bottom, maximising everyone else’s points and we’re only trying to avoid 22nd place. Also assume goal difference is not in our favour.
There are a total of 12x46 matches in a season, meaning potentially 12x46x3 = 1656 points available.The two matches between the two bottom sides are irrelevant for this, so subtract 6 and you get 1650 points.Divide this total by the remaining 22 sides and you get 75 points each. (This occurs, for example if everyone wins all their home games [23x3points] and loses all their away games except for the two away games against the bottom two [2x3points]).Therefore, assuming our goal difference is the worst of those 22 teams, we’ll need to convert one of those away defeats into a draw to reach 76 points (to become champions!) while Millwall (hopefully) are relegated on 73.1 -
Their game in hand is Southampton though. I'd rather they beat us tomorrow, and we pick a point up against Hull or Swansea.Sage said:Draw tomorrow, get it done and be safe going into Saturday’s game being able to enjoy it.
A draw mean Ipswich are 2 off 2nd with a game in hand and superior goal difference. Millwall won’t win their last 2, they’ll bottle it somewhere, meaning Ipswich need 7 from their last 4. Let’s get 1 point each tomorrow and Ipswich can win 2 of their last 3 and clinch 2nd on goal difference.2 -
bobmunro said:Stig said:
I thought thought that at first, on the basis that the most points the team in 22nd could get would be if every team won and lost 23 matches. But that would still mean any team could get relegated on goal difference. So to be mathematically safe the r number would have to be 70 wouldn't it?Northern_Monkey said:69?
R =78 would be my calculation. I could be wrong though!Lord Romford is correct at 76 - 25 wins and a draw! (I mistakenly had it at 26 wins but the most 22nd could get is 25 wins).The extreme is 1st win all 46 games, 2nd win 45, 3rd 44 and so on which means 22nd win 25 games.0 -
Bravolordromford said:
Just did a little working out on paper and the answer is 76.cashncarry said:Can mathematician's out there tell me the R number on the opening day next season?.75 is the highest number of points you can theoretically be relegated with.
Reasoning:
Assume the highest possible points total 3rd from bottom might achieve.
For this, you need to assume there are no draws (so there are always 3 points shared, not 2).
Assume two teams are totally cut adrift at the bottom, maximising everyone else’s points and we’re only trying to avoid 22nd place. Also assume goal difference is not in our favour.
There are a total of 12x46 matches in a season, meaning potentially 12x46x3 = 1656 points available.The two matches between the two bottom sides are irrelevant for this, so subtract 6 and you get 1650 points.Divide this total by the remaining 22 sides and you get 75 points each. (This occurs, for example if everyone wins all their home games [23x3points] and loses all their away games except for the two away games against the bottom two [2x3points]).Therefore, assuming our goal difference is the worst of those 22 teams, we’ll need to convert one of those away defeats into a draw to reach 76 points (to become champions!) while Millwall (hopefully) are relegated on 73.0 -
66/1 btw1
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J BLOCK said:
Their game in hand is Southampton though. I'd rather they beat us tomorrow, and we pick a point up against Hull or Swansea.Sage said:Draw tomorrow, get it done and be safe going into Saturday’s game being able to enjoy it.
A draw mean Ipswich are 2 off 2nd with a game in hand and superior goal difference. Millwall won’t win their last 2, they’ll bottle it somewhere, meaning Ipswich need 7 from their last 4. Let’s get 1 point each tomorrow and Ipswich can win 2 of their last 3 and clinch 2nd on goal difference.
Bit risky I would rather we are safe and then worry about Millwank3 -
What about West Brom's 6 point deduction?0
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A points deduction after your fate is known is no competitive penalty.Henry Irving said:What about West Brom's 6 point deduction?Are we sure it can’t apply next season?0 -
West Brom wanted it next season, not this.valleynick66 said:
A points deduction after your fate is known is no competitive penalty.Henry Irving said:What about West Brom's 6 point deduction?Are we sure it can’t apply next season?
They may be changing their minds on that.2 -
Of course. My query was whether the authorities would / could impose it after it has zero impact. It’s then of no value beyond the modest financial implication of a position or two in the table.Henry Irving said:
West Brom wanted it next season, not this.valleynick66 said:
A points deduction after your fate is known is no competitive penalty.Henry Irving said:What about West Brom's 6 point deduction?Are we sure it can’t apply next season?
They may be changing their minds on that.0
