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The mathematics of relegation
Comments
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valleynick66 said:
Of course. My query was whether the authorities would / could impose it after it has zero impact. It’s then of no value beyond the modest financial implication of a position or two in the table.Henry Irving said:
West Brom wanted it next season, not this.valleynick66 said:
A points deduction after your fate is known is no competitive penalty.Henry Irving said:What about West Brom's 6 point deduction?Are we sure it can’t apply next season?
They may be changing their minds on that.As I said earlier in the thread (or another thread!) - the deduction should only be based on the breach, not the consequences. If WBA's breach deserves 2 points then whether or not that adds an additional penalty of relegation should be neither here nor there.When Leicester got their six points there was no way of knowing whether or not it would mean relegation, even though in reality it probably has.3 -
But what about the potholes in the carpark?lordromford said:
Just did a little working out on paper and the answer is 76.cashncarry said:Can mathematician's out there tell me the R number on the opening day next season?.75 is the highest number of points you can theoretically be relegated with.
Reasoning:
Assume the highest possible points total 3rd from bottom might achieve.
For this, you need to assume there are no draws (so there are always 3 points shared, not 2).
Assume two teams are totally cut adrift at the bottom, maximising everyone else’s points and we’re only trying to avoid 22nd place. Also assume goal difference is not in our favour.
There are a total of 12x46 matches in a season, meaning potentially 12x46x3 = 1656 points available.The two matches between the two bottom sides are irrelevant for this, so subtract 6 and you get 1650 points.Divide this total by the remaining 22 sides and you get 75 points each. (This occurs, for example if everyone wins all their home games [23x3points] and loses all their away games except for the two away games against the bottom two [2x3points]).Therefore, assuming our goal difference is the worst of those 22 teams, we’ll need to convert one of those away defeats into a draw to reach 76 points (to become champions!) while Millwall (hopefully) are relegated on 73.4 -
we still need 1 more point to be absolutely sure. Or Oxford or Blackburn to not get possible pointsOrmiston_Addick said:We are basically safe, it was damned ugly, but that doesn't matter.
Its now between Oxford and Blackburn, with the former looking much more likely.
Still, would be good to get one more point on the board to be absolutely sure!1 -
As well as the other 43 we've already seenjams said:
3 of the least attacking performances ever seen coming right upBigRedEvil said:
Time to belt out Addicks to victory before the game tonight to get everyone pumped up?.jams said:One clean sheet from three games to stay up...0 -
Just to put the Goal Difference debate to bed (hopefully), a team (us) could avoid relegation with R=1 if, at the end of the season, our Goal Difference is better than that of the other relegation candidate.
We have established that this scenario cannot occur between us and Oxford (as two Oxford wins and three defeats for us give Oxford the upper hand 'goaldifferencewise').
However, there is a scenario where three teams (us, Oxford and Blackburn) all finish on 50 points. For this to happen, Blackburn need to take a single point from their two remaining fixtures (Sheff Utd away and Leicester at home).
We currently have a three-goal advantage over Blackburn so ...
... we could survive, even with three defeats as long as they are not 'heavy'.
I think this is the only circumstance where Goal Difference could apply.
That just leaves the 'equal Goal Difference' situation to be resolved and I'll guess that will favour the team who has scored more goals. Currently we are one better than Blackburn, so we need our three narrow defeats to be goalfests while Blackburn's single point must come via a dour 0-0 or something similar.
There you go, Nathan. Free gameplan. No charge.2 -
Oxford are losing to Millwall so we are already safe.
We now need Ipswich to win at least 3 of their games, so if we lose tonight, so be it tbh.
Anyone still believing Oxford will leapfrog us is mental, IMO1 -
This isn't right, I don't think. If 1st win all 46 then surely the most 2nd can win is 44 as they'd have lost twice to the champions.bobmunro said:bobmunro said:Stig said:
I thought thought that at first, on the basis that the most points the team in 22nd could get would be if every team won and lost 23 matches. But that would still mean any team could get relegated on goal difference. So to be mathematically safe the r number would have to be 70 wouldn't it?Northern_Monkey said:69?
R =78 would be my calculation. I could be wrong though!Lord Romford is correct at 76 - 25 wins and a draw! (I mistakenly had it at 26 wins but the most 22nd could get is 25 wins).The extreme is 1st win all 46 games, 2nd win 45, 3rd 44 and so on which means 22nd win 25 games.0 -
If all the games are drawn then every team would have 46 points so 46 plus more goals scored would be the R number.
I feel that such a scenario would be unlikely.
I look forward to the point when we are mathematically safe and we (ie Dave Rudd) can calculate the point/game that safety was retrospectively earned
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Whilst I see your point that ignores the psychological impact of starting to play knowing you have an obstacle to overcome.bobmunro said:valleynick66 said:
Of course. My query was whether the authorities would / could impose it after it has zero impact. It’s then of no value beyond the modest financial implication of a position or two in the table.Henry Irving said:
West Brom wanted it next season, not this.valleynick66 said:
A points deduction after your fate is known is no competitive penalty.Henry Irving said:What about West Brom's 6 point deduction?Are we sure it can’t apply next season?
They may be changing their minds on that.As I said earlier in the thread (or another thread!) - the deduction should only be based on the breach, not the consequences. If WBA's breach deserves 2 points then whether or not that adds an additional penalty of relegation should be neither here nor there.When Leicester got their six points there was no way of knowing whether or not it would mean relegation, even though in reality it probably has.In that sense they are not punished if applied this season.Would be solved by all penalties being only applied at season start.Regardless do we know if it can be deferred to next season under the regulations?0 -
Henry Irving said:If all the games are drawn then every team would have 46 points so 46 plus more goals scored would be the R number.
I feel that such a scenario would be unlikely.
I look forward to the point when we are mathematically safe and we (ie Dave Rudd) can calculate the point/game that safety was retrospectively earned
This is a nice idea and one that I've previously thought could be applied in cricket.
Picture the scene where a team batting last is set a target to reach. They are bowled out short of that target.
This means that the game was won at some point earlier in the game (ie when there were already sufficient runs scored to win, but no-one knew at the time).
There should be a name for that.0 -
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A 1-0 defeat pushes the scum out of the automatics...1
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We now know the safety point this season could be between 45 points and 51 points which is in line with what we thought a few weeks ago. I suspect it will be 48 points.0
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Hold on. if first wins all 46 games, the most second can win is 44 because they've lost two to first. And third will have lost two games to both first and second so can only win a maximum of 42. etc, etc.bobmunro said:bobmunro said:Stig said:
I thought thought that at first, on the basis that the most points the team in 22nd could get would be if every team won and lost 23 matches. But that would still mean any team could get relegated on goal difference. So to be mathematically safe the r number would have to be 70 wouldn't it?Northern_Monkey said:69?
R =78 would be my calculation. I could be wrong though!Lord Romford is correct at 76 - 25 wins and a draw! (I mistakenly had it at 26 wins but the most 22nd could get is 25 wins).The extreme is 1st win all 46 games, 2nd win 45, 3rd 44 and so on which means 22nd win 25 games.0 -
Henry got me thinking.
When we won at Middlesbrough, that gave us 47 points from 37 matches.
We now know that, at that stage, we simply needed four points from nine matches to avoid relegation.
We have three from the first six. We may not need the fourth point, of course.1 -
I don't think anyone is thinking Oxford will go above us - but mathematically it is possible currently, just very unlikelysam3110 said:Oxford are losing to Millwall so we are already safe.
We now need Ipswich to win at least 3 of their games, so if we lose tonight, so be it tbh.
Anyone still believing Oxford will leapfrog us is mental, IMO0 -
Looking at just Oxford, if they win their 2 games, they would be on 50 points and their GD would improve by at least 2 goals from - 15 to -13 at worse if the won both games by 1 goalDave Rudd said:Just to put the Goal Difference debate to bed (hopefully), a team (us) could avoid relegation with R=1 if, at the end of the season, our Goal Difference is better than that of the other relegation candidate.
We have established that this scenario cannot occur between us and Oxford (as two Oxford wins and three defeats for us give Oxford the upper hand 'goaldifferencewise').
However, there is a scenario where three teams (us, Oxford and Blackburn) all finish on 50 points. For this to happen, Blackburn need to take a single point from their two remaining fixtures (Sheff Utd away and Leicester at home).
We currently have a three-goal advantage over Blackburn so ...
... we could survive, even with three defeats as long as they are not 'heavy'.
I think this is the only circumstance where Goal Difference could apply.
That just leaves the 'equal Goal Difference' situation to be resolved and I'll guess that will favour the team who has scored more goals. Currently we are one better than Blackburn, so we need our three narrow defeats to be goalfests while Blackburn's single point must come via a dour 0-0 or something similar.
There you go, Nathan. Free gameplan. No charge.
If we lose our 3 games, our GD would get worse by 3 goals minimum (losing each by 1 goal) from -12 to -15
Of course and fortunately this is very unlikey but mathematically possible2 -
PrincessFiona said:
Looking at just Oxford, if they win their 2 games, they would be on 50 points and their GD would improve by at least 2 goals from - 15 to -13 at worse if the won both games by 1 goalDave Rudd said:Just to put the Goal Difference debate to bed (hopefully), a team (us) could avoid relegation with R=1 if, at the end of the season, our Goal Difference is better than that of the other relegation candidate.
We have established that this scenario cannot occur between us and Oxford (as two Oxford wins and three defeats for us give Oxford the upper hand 'goaldifferencewise').
However, there is a scenario where three teams (us, Oxford and Blackburn) all finish on 50 points. For this to happen, Blackburn need to take a single point from their two remaining fixtures (Sheff Utd away and Leicester at home).
We currently have a three-goal advantage over Blackburn so ...
... we could survive, even with three defeats as long as they are not 'heavy'.
I think this is the only circumstance where Goal Difference could apply.
That just leaves the 'equal Goal Difference' situation to be resolved and I'll guess that will favour the team who has scored more goals. Currently we are one better than Blackburn, so we need our three narrow defeats to be goalfests while Blackburn's single point must come via a dour 0-0 or something similar.
There you go, Nathan. Free gameplan. No charge.
If we lose our 3 games, our GD would get worse by 3 goals minimum (losing each by 1 goal) from -12 to -15
Of course and fortunately this is very unlikey but mathematically possible
Yes, this was the point of my previous post.
If Goal Difference proves to be a factor, it means that Oxford are safe and it will be down to us and Blackburn.3 -
We'll be comfortably ahead on goal difference when Campbell scores a hat-trick tonight.
For Sheffield United against Blackburn.8 -
The tipping pointDave Rudd said:Henry Irving said:If all the games are drawn then every team would have 46 points so 46 plus more goals scored would be the R number.
I feel that such a scenario would be unlikely.
I look forward to the point when we are mathematically safe and we (ie Dave Rudd) can calculate the point/game that safety was retrospectively earned
This is a nice idea and one that I've previously thought could be applied in cricket.
Picture the scene where a team batting last is set a target to reach. They are bowled out short of that target.
This means that the game was won at some point earlier in the game (ie when there were already sufficient runs scored to win, but no-one knew at the time).
There should be a name for that.0 -
I'll take this as a crumb of comfort, should we come away with nothing tonight. But frankly I want safety signed, sealed and delivered, not just very likely. It was so nice that all the hand-wringing stopped after last night's results. I wouldn't want it starting up again, no matter what mountain Oxford have to climb.sam3110 said:Oxford are losing to Millwall so we are already safe.
We now need Ipswich to win at least 3 of their games, so if we lose tonight, so be it tbh.
Anyone still believing Oxford will leapfrog us is mental, IMO1 -
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If we lose tonight, our odds of being relegated will start to drop. If we also lose in the early kick-off on Saturday, I'm not so sure what I think will happen. Call it bedwetting if you like, but I'd rather we won 5-0 tonight.4
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Of course I want us to win tonight, by as many as possible. But because 1 point is enough for certainly, I'd be ecstatic with just a drawthai malaysia addick said:If we lose tonight, our odds of being relegated will start to drop. If we also lose in the early kick-off on Saturday, I'm not so sure what I think will happen. Call it bedwetting if you like, but I'd rather we won 5-0 tonight.4 -
I'm already looking forward to the new thread starting before the new season begins.bobmunro said:Stig said:
I thought thought that at first, on the basis that the most points the team in 22nd could get would be if every team won and lost 23 matches. But that would still mean any team could get relegated on goal difference. So to be mathematically safe the r number would have to be 70 wouldn't it?Northern_Monkey said:69?
R =78 would be my calculation. I could be wrong though!2 -
I think that's exactly what we are thinking.PrincessFiona said:
I don't think anyone is thinking Oxford will go above us - but mathematically it is possible currently, just very unlikelysam3110 said:Oxford are losing to Millwall so we are already safe.
We now need Ipswich to win at least 3 of their games, so if we lose tonight, so be it tbh.
Anyone still believing Oxford will leapfrog us is mental, IMO1 -
I’m another who just can’t believe that people would be happy to lose to Ipswich,do our job just get it done draw or beat them,stay up was our remit…n it’s withing touching distance,I’m one of the ones that couldn’t give a toss what the Scum do…if they do go up,so what we are light years behind them,we never beat them anyways,so straight away we maybe 6 points better off next season…think of our destiny,let them worry about theirs.
Cmon U Addicks ❤️🤍9 -
But the two things are connected as they play eachother on the last game of the season.NorthheathAddick said:I’m another who just can’t believe that people would be happy to lose to Ipswich,do our job just get it done draw or beat them,stay up was our remit…n it’s withing touching distance,I’m one of the ones that couldn’t give a toss what the Scum do…if they do go up,so what we are light years behind them,we never beat them anyways,so straight away we maybe 6 points better off next season…think of our destiny,let them worry about theirs.
Cmon U Addicks ❤️🤍
If Oxford won both their games and we lose all ours, they leap frog us, but it means Millwall almost certainly won't get promoted as they'll only pick up a max of 3 more points whereas Ipswich will get at least 3 and have another 3 games to get the points.
However the chances of Oxford beating Millwall are very slim, so the best, and most likely, thing to happen for both scenarios is Oxford get beaten by Millwall, so they can't catch us, but we lose to Ipswich and they catch and overtake Millwall.
If we throw it away from here and Oxford pummel Millwall and beat Sheffield Wednesday, we deserve to go down tbh, but it's so unlikely it's crazy1 -
fattmatt said:
I'm already looking forward to the new thread starting before the new season begins.bobmunro said:Stig said:
I thought thought that at first, on the basis that the most points the team in 22nd could get would be if every team won and lost 23 matches. But that would still mean any team could get relegated on goal difference. So to be mathematically safe the r number would have to be 70 wouldn't it?Northern_Monkey said:69?
R =78 would be my calculation. I could be wrong though!
F*&k me. I'm not.8 -
In all seriousness, it's actually a really novel way of looking at the situation and has no doubt improved my sleep recently.Dave Rudd said:fattmatt said:
I'm already looking forward to the new thread starting before the new season begins.bobmunro said:Stig said:
I thought thought that at first, on the basis that the most points the team in 22nd could get would be if every team won and lost 23 matches. But that would still mean any team could get relegated on goal difference. So to be mathematically safe the r number would have to be 70 wouldn't it?Northern_Monkey said:69?
R =78 would be my calculation. I could be wrong though!
F*&k me. I'm not.0 -
I’m still quite interested in the Blackburn game tonight. They’re saving grace is having Leicester at home on the final day, who I think will be there for the taking, but a loss tonight would certainly make for an unwanted period of worry in the run up to the final game, if Oxford win on Saturday.On a side note, it’s a shame Pompey and WBA (bar the points deduction) are safe. If we get the point we need, I would’ve enjoyed a last day scenario where 2 more teams could’ve gone down from 4, as opposed to it looking like it’s a done deal
I would say usually it’s good to see the race for 2nd so closely contested, but let’s hope after tonight Ipswich sort that out, which just leaves 6th place as potentially the only spot up for grabs on the last day1 -
I can’t help but find some of these comments absolutely crazy and scream at me like some of you have never watched football or more importantly, the Championship before.
Oxford are of course less likely to win at Millwall for a number of reasons. However, we know anyone can beat anyone on any given day. We also know that there would be an incredible amount of pressure on Millwall to win at home on the last day.
What is just as likely as anything else is Oxford go to Millwall on the last day already being relegated or needing a win because Blackburn lose to Sheffield United and who then play Leicester on the last day. Either way they’ll go to Millwall with pressure of needing a win to survive or already down and playing with freedom.
This is a Millwall team that lost to Portsmouth and Blackburn at home and away. They also drew at Oxford. It’s not a given they’ll win.
Surely the main thing is we get a draw tonight and not have to worry about anything else all season?
There are going to be twists and turns yet, and despite who they’re playing, I can’t see Millwall winning their last 2 games. But we must pick up at least a point and we have an opportunity to do that tonight. So that MUST be the focus. Everything else is noise and unnecessary at that.11
