Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation. I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.
Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.
The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).
So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games.
However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.
I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.
Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned. If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).
So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.
More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
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Make this a sticky
I suppose one way is to table it as:
B56 L52 W50
B53 L55 W50
B50 L55 W53
Either way we’d need either 56 or 55 points so another 10 should be the absolute max required! But for these points to be gained, other teams around us will be dropping points. Eg Hull will lose out on 6 points with these totals above as they play Luton and Wigan, meaning (if they lose against WBA today) the most they would be able to get would be another 9 points, putting them on 54 and reducing the max total we would need.
So it's not all bad news,at the moment we went be scoring many but we wont be letting many in.
All this does is to establish the mathematically certainty and it allows progress to be monitored ... curiously enough, by taking one game at a time.
First up, Boro v QPR later today. R will be unaffected ... but R' may be.
That may change, of course, and, if and when it does, Hull City will be included (at the expense of one of the existing three).
Let me know if you hear anyone else using it.
We can blame the attack but we don't want to commit to many forward.
Millwall had a couple of attacks where we had everyone behind the ball.
If our points had worked out
Hull 1
QPR 3
Cardiff 1
Millwall 1
Wed probably be happier than with the7 weve got.
The R number remains unchanged at 11 but, as Middlesbrough failed to collect any points today, the R' number (this is our target if the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) now drops to 14.
Next update is after Tuesday's games.
B53 L55 W50 (H54)
B50 L55 W53 (H54)
If Hull go beyond 54 it would have to drop Luton or Wigan by 3 points. For Luton and Wigan to get at or near their max possible haul (accounting for the fact they must play Barnsley) it will mean Hull dropping below Luton or Barnsley in the totals...
If Hull City lose to either (or both) of Luton and Wigan, their maximum total will drop to 57 or 54.
None of that affects the R numbers yet as Barnsley (56 points maximum) are currently the critical team from our perspective (as they have the highest maximum total of the three teams with the lowest maximum totals).
Let's worry about Hull City if and when they replace either Barnsley, Luton or Wigan (or Middlesbrough if Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned).
I thought this meant that 56 wasn’t a possible point total for someone in the bottom 3 but looking at it again, actually, you could still end up with 56 at the necessary point total to reach if Barnsley beat both:
B56 L49 W50 H57 or
B56 L52 W47 H57 or
B56 L49 W47 H60
In theory are draws still the best results for us in these “six pointers”?
You could generally say that the best result in any of the 'six pointers' is for the critical team (currently Barnsley) to drop points, but a Luton win on Tuesday doesn't feel great to me. But Wigan to win at Barnsley on Saturday would be the best outcome.
Note that we picked up three of the 17 points today without playing.
What are we all worried about?
At the moment, Barnsley are the critical team. So, if Luton and Barnsley draw (I think that's what you meant), R is reduced from 11 to nine. A Luton win sees R become 10.
Any other results, although they might be helpful, do not actually affect R ... apart from ours at Brentford, of course.
I'm also wary of wanting the bottom 3 to automatically lose against teams around us, as that to me feel like putting all our eggs in one basket. If one of the bottom 3 have a brilliant run and overtake us, we'll still be safe if one of the likes of Stoke, Boro and Hull are still below us
For example if Hull draw their games against Wigan and Luton, but lose their other 3 matches, they'll dent Luton and Wigan's chances AND only reach 47 points, a total we can surely overhaul.
Brentford - a point would be good but this could be our first loss against the top six.
Reading - would hope for a win.
Birmingham - draw at best.
Wigan - could see us losing that, depends if they've been paid and can field a first team or they have to send the kids out
Leeds - hopefully they'll have been on the lash since wrapping up the title and are too hungover to see straight.
I reckon four or five points for those, leaving us on 50 or 51 points.