A reminder that R currently stands at 11, while R' (the theoretical number of points required to avoid relegation if the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) sits at 14.
Seems like although we lost tonight we "gained" on the field as both Luton & Barnsley only picked up a point each and they really need to be winning games with only 4 to go.
Barnsley v Wigan will be an interesting one. A point apiece is most favourable but I would take a Wigan win just as long as we dont lose to them a week later. Might be academic by then as they could be already down (taking into account the 12 point deduction) but I feel we need another 4 or 5 points to be safe.
Seems like although we lost tonight we "gained" on the field as both Luton & Barnsley only picked up a point each and they really need to be winning games with only 4 to go.
Barnsley v Wigan will be an interesting one. A point apiece is most favourable but I would take a Wigan win just as long as we dont lose to them a week later. Might be academic by then as they could be already down (taking into account the 12 point deduction) but I feel we need another 4 or 5 points to be safe.
Definitely won’t need 4. If we went down on 49 points that would mean one of Wigan getting Luton or Barnsley either 49 or 50 respectively.
To get 49, Wigan need 11 points from 15.
To get 50, Luton need 9 from 12 and Barnsley 8.
I can’t see Luton or Barnsley getting above 47. Wigan have been playing well but still going to be very difficult, especially under these circumstances.
I think we stay up by avoiding defeat against Wigan, even if lose the other 3, probably on goal difference. Could be wrong but I’d bet my house that 49 keeps us up (on the condition Wigan get 12 deducted).
That Luton and Barnsley result was fantastic. We'd be up against it if Barnsley had won and were sitting on 44. Now I just cannot see Bansley or Luton getting above 47/48. I'd say we need three to be sure, but if you offered me two points on the condition that one was against Wigan I'd definitely take it.
Seems like although we lost tonight we "gained" on the field as both Luton & Barnsley only picked up a point each and they really need to be winning games with only 4 to go.
Barnsley v Wigan will be an interesting one. A point apiece is most favourable but I would take a Wigan win just as long as we dont lose to them a week later. Might be academic by then as they could be already down (taking into account the 12 point deduction) but I feel we need another 4 or 5 points to be safe.
Definitely won’t need 4. If we went down on 49 points that would mean one of Wigan getting Luton or Barnsley either 49 or 50 respectively.
To get 49, Wigan need 11 points from 15.
To get 50, Luton need 9 from 12 and Barnsley 8.
I can’t see Luton or Barnsley getting above 47. Wigan have been playing well but still going to be very difficult, especially under these circumstances.
I think we stay up by avoiding defeat against Wigan, even if lose the other 3, probably on goal difference. Could be wrong but I’d bet my house that 49 keeps us up (on the condition Wigan get 12 deducted).
That being the case, should we not be going out now to try to win every game rather than not losing? I'm not by any means suggesting all out attack and leaving ourselves vulnerable at the back but surely picking Doughty, Williams and two up top has to be the way forward?
After all, how much easier is it to win one game as opposed to trying to draw three?
Too early to suggest 49 is safe, Wigan/Barnsley will be a key game as if Wigan beat QPR, Barnsley and Hull (which isn't impossible) they will have an effective 47 before they play us. And their final game is against Fulham, who by that stage may be saving themselves for the playoffs
Luton still have to play Huddersfield and Hull, both winnable, have QPR which isn't that bad a fixture and finish against Blackburn who may be on the beach. Not impossible to see them reach 50
I like this thread cheers, personally think 50/51 should be enough but there are some key games. If we can win 2 of the next 3 we should be ok, or even pick up 5 points.
Seems like although we lost tonight we "gained" on the field as both Luton & Barnsley only picked up a point each and they really need to be winning games with only 4 to go.
Barnsley v Wigan will be an interesting one. A point apiece is most favourable but I would take a Wigan win just as long as we dont lose to them a week later. Might be academic by then as they could be already down (taking into account the 12 point deduction) but I feel we need another 4 or 5 points to be safe.
Definitely won’t need 4. If we went down on 49 points that would mean one of Wigan getting Luton or Barnsley either 49 or 50 respectively.
To get 49, Wigan need 11 points from 15.
To get 50, Luton need 9 from 12 and Barnsley 8.
I can’t see Luton or Barnsley getting above 47. Wigan have been playing well but still going to be very difficult, especially under these circumstances.
I think we stay up by avoiding defeat against Wigan, even if lose the other 3, probably on goal difference. Could be wrong but I’d bet my house that 49 keeps us up (on the condition Wigan get 12 deducted).
That being the case, should we not be going out now to try to win every game rather than not losing? I'm not by any means suggesting all out attack and leaving ourselves vulnerable at the back but surely picking Doughty, Williams and two up top has to be the way forward?
After all, how much easier is it to win one game as opposed to trying to draw three?
The best way to lose a game is to go out for the draw!
According to my accountant... 50 points are needed.... So win and a draw please!
He also laughingly said have a bet on Birmingham to go down...always surprise team he says!
"That will be £100 for the bookkeeping, £150 for the tax return and £50 for the relegation prediction"
How'd you know his prices! 🤣
Clearly fictitious. All accountants quote their prices in guineas ... the 'gentleman's denomination'.
Don't want to tempt fate but, if Hull City lose at Bristol tonight they replace Middlesbrough as the critical team in the R' scenario (the one where Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned) and R' drops to 12.
According to my accountant... 50 points are needed.... So win and a draw please!
He also laughingly said have a bet on Birmingham to go down...always surprise team he says!
"That will be £100 for the bookkeeping, £150 for the tax return and £50 for the relegation prediction"
How'd you know his prices! 🤣
Clearly fictitious. All accountants quote their prices in guineas ... the 'gentleman's denomination'.
Don't want to tempt fate but, if Hull City lose at Bristol tonight they replace Middlesbrough as the critical team in the R' scenario (the one where Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned) and R' drops to 12.
It’s actually better if Hull are the R’ team as they still have to play Luton (and Wigan if they’re in contention) - one getting their max point total means the others can’t (and brings another team bottom into the bottom 3 in many scenarios)
However they have scored with their only shot on target today (following suit from Luton in previous weeks). Hopefully Bristol City can keep them at bay for the next 30 mins!
Comments
A reminder that R currently stands at 11, while R' (the theoretical number of points required to avoid relegation if the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) sits at 14.
(as Barnsley’s max total becomes 53 vs Luton’s 55)
R' unaffected, but Middlesbrough might help that tomorrow night.
Relegate SW, and give them a chance.
Barnsley v Wigan will be an interesting one. A point apiece is most favourable but I would take a Wigan win just as long as we dont lose to them a week later. Might be academic by then as they could be already down (taking into account the 12 point deduction) but I feel we need another 4 or 5 points to be safe.
After all, how much easier is it to win one game as opposed to trying to draw three?
Luton still have to play Huddersfield and Hull, both winnable, have QPR which isn't that bad a fixture and finish against Blackburn who may be on the beach. Not impossible to see them reach 50
Agree 50 points should do it.
Oh joy.
He also laughingly said have a bet on Birmingham to go down...always surprise team he says!
Don't want to tempt fate but, if Hull City lose at Bristol tonight they replace Middlesbrough as the critical team in the R' scenario (the one where Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned) and R' drops to 12.
would be beaten by Middlesbrough?
now we have to get our Act together Mr Bowyer 👍
However they have scored with their only shot on target today (following suit from Luton in previous weeks). Hopefully Bristol City can keep them at bay for the next 30 mins!