Too early to suggest 49 is safe, Wigan/Barnsley will be a key game as if Wigan beat QPR, Barnsley and Hull (which isn't impossible) they will have an effective 47 before they play us. And their final game is against Fulham, who by that stage may be saving themselves for the playoffs
Luton still have to play Huddersfield and Hull, both winnable, have QPR which isn't that bad a fixture and finish against Blackburn who may be on the beach. Not impossible to see them reach 50
I can see Wigan beating Barnsley and Hull to effectively leave them on 47, we really need 4 points from the next 2 games minimum to give us 50 before we play them. Then a draw against Wigan would mean they would have to beat Fulham to go above us (not impossible though), so even 51 wouldn't be enough then
Still think we’ll need less. 2 of Wigan, Luton, Barnsley or Hull getting to 50, no chance. In fact almost impossible due to the fact they have games against each other.
Too early to suggest 49 is safe, Wigan/Barnsley will be a key game as if Wigan beat QPR, Barnsley and Hull (which isn't impossible) they will have an effective 47 before they play us. And their final game is against Fulham, who by that stage may be saving themselves for the playoffs
Luton still have to play Huddersfield and Hull, both winnable, have QPR which isn't that bad a fixture and finish against Blackburn who may be on the beach. Not impossible to see them reach 50
I can see Wigan beating Barnsley and Hull to effectively leave them on 47, we really need 4 points from the next 2 games minimum to give us 50 before we play them. Then a draw against Wigan would mean they would have to beat Fulham to go above us (not impossible though), so even 51 wouldn't be enough then
That scenario plays out another defeat for Hull though, who look shocking. We probably need 49 but I’d be astounded if 48 didn’t keep us up.
R now 11 after the Huddersfield result. Assuming Wigan get away with it they are the key team as their maximum points total is 56 following their loss to Luton.
Surely because Luton’s maximum points total is 53 while Barnsley’s is still 54, the R number would remain at 9.
If Wigan get the points deduction yes but if not then Huddersfield are the team with the lowest potential maximum (56) so R is 11.
But Hull with four games to play could get to 57 so that would put the R (R’) at 12.
I’ll wait for the authority @Dave Rudd but I don’t believe the result tonight had any effect on R or R’ (with or without Wigan points deduction). R should still be 9 and R’ should still be 12.
Surely because Luton’s maximum points total is 53 while Barnsley’s is still 54, the R number would remain at 9.
If Wigan get the points deduction yes but if not then Huddersfield are the team with the lowest potential maximum (56) so R is 11.
But Hull with four games to play could get to 57 so that would put the R (R’) at 12.
I’ll wait for the authority @Dave Rudd but I don’t believe the result tonight had any effect on R or R’ (with or without Wigan points deduction). R should still be 9 and R’ should still be 12.
but Hull are now not the key team in either calculation as they (57) can now get more than Huddersfield (56), Barnsley (54), Luton (53) and a points deducted Wigan (53)
To summarise the last few posts, and for the sake of clarity for people just dipping into the thread to check the latest number:
R = 9 with Barnsley as the critical team.
R' = 11 with Huddersfield as the critical team.
Thanks but if that answers my question, you need to explain my question...
Sorry, @KiwiValley , it wasn't intended as an answer to your question.
It's 9 points from the remaining games, not the mini season.
R is the number of points we need, as of now, from the remaining games to be mathematically certain of staying up if Wigan's 12 point deduction is applied.
R' is the number of points we need, as of now, from the remaining games to be mathematically certain of staying up if Wigan's points deduction isn't applied.
Both numbers will reduce as we gain points, but also as other teams drop points, so the actual total that we need from the remaining games to stay up will, in reality, be lower than R.
Comments
51 would better 👍
Therefore, we currently need 58 points to be mathematically certain of safety ... that's 12 more than the 46 that we currently have ... hence, R'=12.
This is all about mathematical certainty ... not the likely points total that we may need in reality (which will be less).
It's all explained (I thought) at the start of the thread.
Or indeed any?
I was factoring in our superior goal difference!
Come 5pm tomorrow that may have changed.
That's R', R is still 9.
I’ll wait for the authority @Dave Rudd but I don’t believe the result tonight had any effect on R or R’ (with or without Wigan points deduction). R should still be 9 and R’ should still be 12.