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The mathematics of relegation
Comments
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50 Points minimum to stay up
51 would better 👍2 -
Confirmation that, after Hull City's defeat at Bristol, R = 9 with Barnsley as the critical team and that R' =12 with Hull City as the critical team.1
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I can see Wigan beating Barnsley and Hull to effectively leave them on 47, we really need 4 points from the next 2 games minimum to give us 50 before we play them. Then a draw against Wigan would mean they would have to beat Fulham to go above us (not impossible though), so even 51 wouldn't be enough thenkillerandflash said:Too early to suggest 49 is safe, Wigan/Barnsley will be a key game as if Wigan beat QPR, Barnsley and Hull (which isn't impossible) they will have an effective 47 before they play us. And their final game is against Fulham, who by that stage may be saving themselves for the playoffs
Luton still have to play Huddersfield and Hull, both winnable, have QPR which isn't that bad a fixture and finish against Blackburn who may be on the beach. Not impossible to see them reach 50
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I make it R 9 R' 11
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Still think we’ll need less. 2 of Wigan, Luton, Barnsley or Hull getting to 50, no chance. In fact almost impossible due to the fact they have games against each other.1968CAFC said:50 Points minimum to stay up
51 would better 👍0 -
That scenario plays out another defeat for Hull though, who look shocking. We probably need 49 but I’d be astounded if 48 didn’t keep us up.killerandflash said:
I can see Wigan beating Barnsley and Hull to effectively leave them on 47, we really need 4 points from the next 2 games minimum to give us 50 before we play them. Then a draw against Wigan would mean they would have to beat Fulham to go above us (not impossible though), so even 51 wouldn't be enough thenkillerandflash said:Too early to suggest 49 is safe, Wigan/Barnsley will be a key game as if Wigan beat QPR, Barnsley and Hull (which isn't impossible) they will have an effective 47 before they play us. And their final game is against Fulham, who by that stage may be saving themselves for the playoffs
Luton still have to play Huddersfield and Hull, both winnable, have QPR which isn't that bad a fixture and finish against Blackburn who may be on the beach. Not impossible to see them reach 500 -
Hull City have 45 points from 42 games. Their theoretical maximum total is 45 + 12 (four wins) = 57 points.Friend Or Defoe said:I make it R 9 R' 11
Therefore, we currently need 58 points to be mathematically certain of safety ... that's 12 more than the 46 that we currently have ... hence, R'=12.3 -
So we’re fucked then?Dave Rudd said:
Hull City have 45 points from 42 games. Their theoretical maximum total is 45 + 12 (four wins) = 57 points.Friend Or Defoe said:I make it R 9 R' 11
Therefore, we currently need 58 points to be mathematically certain of safety ... that's 12 more than the 46 that we currently have ... hence, R'=12.2 -
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No ... because the R numbers are affected by the points that we may score and the points dropped by other teams (particularly the critical team).iainment said:
So we’re fucked then?Dave Rudd said:
Hull City have 45 points from 42 games. Their theoretical maximum total is 45 + 12 (four wins) = 57 points.Friend Or Defoe said:I make it R 9 R' 11
Therefore, we currently need 58 points to be mathematically certain of safety ... that's 12 more than the 46 that we currently have ... hence, R'=12.
This is all about mathematical certainty ... not the likely points total that we may need in reality (which will be less).
It's all explained (I thought) at the start of the thread.6 -
Have a look at their fixtures. Do you think that they will win all four?iainment said:
So we’re fucked then?Dave Rudd said:
Hull City have 45 points from 42 games. Their theoretical maximum total is 45 + 12 (four wins) = 57 points.Friend Or Defoe said:I make it R 9 R' 11
Therefore, we currently need 58 points to be mathematically certain of safety ... that's 12 more than the 46 that we currently have ... hence, R'=12.
Or indeed any?0 -
They play Millwall next, and after today's result...Redrobo said:
Have a look at their fixtures. Do you think that they will win all four?iainment said:
So we’re fucked then?Dave Rudd said:
Hull City have 45 points from 42 games. Their theoretical maximum total is 45 + 12 (four wins) = 57 points.Friend Or Defoe said:I make it R 9 R' 11
Therefore, we currently need 58 points to be mathematically certain of safety ... that's 12 more than the 46 that we currently have ... hence, R'=12.
Or indeed any?
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Millwall are going to rollover. Your closest business competitor can take a huge hit if you don’t win. So guess what they will do.1
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And we gift them points. What other team starts with six points.Dazzler21 said:
We're not business competitors... We don't battle for the same fan base.ct_addick said:Millwall are going to rollover. Your closest business competitor can take a huge hit if you don’t win. So guess what they will do.4 -
Us against Leeds 🙂Redrobo said:
And we gift them points. What other team starts with six points.Dazzler21 said:
We're not business competitors... We don't battle for the same fan base.ct_addick said:Millwall are going to rollover. Your closest business competitor can take a huge hit if you don’t win. So guess what they will do.4 -
Dave Rudd said:
Hull City have 45 points from 42 games. Their theoretical maximum total is 45 + 12 (four wins) = 57 points.Friend Or Defoe said:I make it R 9 R' 11
Therefore, we currently need 58 points to be mathematically certain of safety ... that's 12 more than the 46 that we currently have ... hence, R'=12.
I was factoring in our superior goal difference!
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Which is where you went wrong.Friend Or Defoe said:Dave Rudd said:
Hull City have 45 points from 42 games. Their theoretical maximum total is 45 + 12 (four wins) = 57 points.Friend Or Defoe said:I make it R 9 R' 11
Therefore, we currently need 58 points to be mathematically certain of safety ... that's 12 more than the 46 that we currently have ... hence, R'=12.
I was factoring in our superior goal difference!
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R now 11 after the Huddersfield result. Assuming Wigan get away with it they are the key team as their maximum points total is 56 following their loss to Luton.
Come 5pm tomorrow that may have changed.0 -
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Surely because Luton’s maximum points total is 53 while Barnsley’s is still 54, the R number would remain at 9.1
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If Wigan get the points deduction yes but if not then Huddersfield are the team with the lowest potential maximum (56) so R is 11.Callumcafc said:Surely because Luton’s maximum points total is 53 while Barnsley’s is still 54, the R number would remain at 9.1 -
LenGlover said:
If Wigan get the points deduction yes but if not then Huddersfield are the team with the lowest potential maximum (56) so R is 11.Callumcafc said:Surely because Luton’s maximum points total is 53 while Barnsley’s is still 54, the R number would remain at 9.
That's R', R is still 9.
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But Hull with four games to play could get to 57 so that would put the R (R’) at 12.LenGlover said:
If Wigan get the points deduction yes but if not then Huddersfield are the team with the lowest potential maximum (56) so R is 11.Callumcafc said:Surely because Luton’s maximum points total is 53 while Barnsley’s is still 54, the R number would remain at 9.
I’ll wait for the authority @Dave Rudd but I don’t believe the result tonight had any effect on R or R’ (with or without Wigan points deduction). R should still be 9 and R’ should still be 12.
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R = 9 from the remaining games or in total from the mini season? Forgive my maths.0
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but Hull are now not the key team in either calculation as they (57) can now get more than Huddersfield (56), Barnsley (54), Luton (53) and a points deducted Wigan (53)Callumcafc said:
But Hull with four games to play could get to 57 so that would put the R (R’) at 12.LenGlover said:
If Wigan get the points deduction yes but if not then Huddersfield are the team with the lowest potential maximum (56) so R is 11.Callumcafc said:Surely because Luton’s maximum points total is 53 while Barnsley’s is still 54, the R number would remain at 9.
I’ll wait for the authority @Dave Rudd but I don’t believe the result tonight had any effect on R or R’ (with or without Wigan points deduction). R should still be 9 and R’ should still be 12.4 -
To summarise the last few posts, and for the sake of clarity for people just dipping into the thread to check the latest number:R = 9 with Barnsley as the critical team.R' = 11 with Huddersfield as the critical team.5
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Thanks but if that answers my question, you need to explain my question...Gillis said:To summarise the last few posts, and for the sake of clarity for people just dipping into the thread to check the latest number:R = 9 with Barnsley as the critical team.R' = 11 with Huddersfield as the critical team.0 -
KiwiValley said:
Thanks but if that answers my question, you need to explain my question...Gillis said:To summarise the last few posts, and for the sake of clarity for people just dipping into the thread to check the latest number:R = 9 with Barnsley as the critical team.R' = 11 with Huddersfield as the critical team.Sorry, @KiwiValley , it wasn't intended as an answer to your question.It's 9 points from the remaining games, not the mini season.R is the number of points we need, as of now, from the remaining games to be mathematically certain of staying up if Wigan's 12 point deduction is applied.R' is the number of points we need, as of now, from the remaining games to be mathematically certain of staying up if Wigan's points deduction isn't applied.Both numbers will reduce as we gain points, but also as other teams drop points, so the actual total that we need from the remaining games to stay up will, in reality, be lower than R.2 -
If R is greater than 2 then we need to win a fcking game, starting today, to not have to rely upon the teams below us losing all their remaining games1
