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The mathematics of relegation
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Here's a table of all of the possible permutations in the championship. Haven't checked but I guess it's R'.
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The fact that 17th can still finish bottom of the league with 3 games remaining is astonishing. A crazy season.2
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One of the best divisions I know of. It's quite often like this.stoneroses19 said:The fact that 17th can still finish bottom of the league with 3 games remaining is astonishing. A crazy season.0 -
Wednesday (ignoring deductions) could finish in 6th...or 21st!1
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And Fulham could still be champions!!!!0
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Fanny ... can you update the list, please?swords_alive said:I love this thread. It brings calm as death approaches, much like Buddhism I expect.
Through lockdown, I have been getting a bit fatter around the middle, but I hadn't realised it was quite that bad.1 -
Blimers !Dave Rudd said:
Fanny ... can you update the list, please?swords_alive said:I love this thread. It brings calm as death approaches, much like Buddhism I expect.
Through lockdown, I have been getting a bit fatter around the middle, but I hadn't realised it was quite that bad.
It's getting longer than my online Sainsbury's order
( That wasn't meant to be personal, DR....but you DO move in mysterious ways ....)0 -
I’d take 14th.Friend Or Defoe said:Here's a table of all of the possible permutations in the championship. Haven't checked but I guess it's R'.3 -
And off we go again.
A reminder that R currently sits at 8 (Luton are the critical team) and R' at 9 (Hull City are critical).
Go, you Super Hoops (please forgive me).
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Wigan 7-0 hull. Not even half time!2
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That's the end of R'!1
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Not exactly.Friend Or Defoe said:That's the end of R'!
After the Wigan 8-0 Hull City result, R is reduced to 7 with Barnsley now the critical team, while R' becomes 8 and Luton are critical.
More news after the the Luton and Huddersfield games.1 -
Yippeeee were in the bottom 30
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4 points from the next 2 games will be enough. It'll take us to 50 points.
Barnsley would then need to win all 3 games - they won't do that.
Wigan wouldn't be able to catch us.
Hull would then need to win both games - unlikely they will do that, but even if they did, it would mean Luton couldn't catch us.
50 points will be enough, as long as we don't lose to Wigan.
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We have to start scoring before we can dream of winning3
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The Luton 1-1 QPR result means that R is now 6, with Luton, Hull City and Wigan all as the critical team.
R' (the scenario where Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned) is now 7, with Barnsley as the critical team.
Quite a night ... but bring on tomorrow!1 -
If we win tomorrow and then Hull & Luton draw on Saturday, we're safe from them, unless there's a huge goal swing in the final matches.
Then we just need Barnsley to lose one of their final three matches.0 -
R and R' are now 6.0
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What's R&R?0
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Read the first post of the thread.jimmymelrose said:What's R&R?
Tomorrow's game is massive, lose and we're in deep trouble, win and we put Birmingham in danger and give ourselves some wiggle room.
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R' is the scenario where Wigan have their 12 point penalty overturned (hence, we can exclude them from the calculations).Friend Or Defoe said:R and R' are now 6.
So, currently Hull City have 45 points from 44 games (theoretical maximum is therefore 51 points.)
Luton are the same (45 from 44 games, maximum 51).
Barnsley have 43 points from 43 games, so they can theoretically record 52 points.
To be mathematically certain of avoiding relegation, we therefore need 53 points.
We have 46.
R' is 7.0 -
Table looks really scary. Wigan now virtually safe. Udders with a 2 point gap. One thing is now clear, we don’t have enough points. We need three. One each from remaining games or one win. To my mind that means tomorrow is genuinely shit or bust. I just hope bowyer picks an attacking midfield.
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If they beat Leeds, Forest and Brentford it'd be the greatest escape in football history.Dave Rudd said:
R' is the scenario where Wigan have their 12 point penalty overturned (hence, we can exclude them from the calculations).Friend Or Defoe said:R and R' are now 6.
So, currently Hull City have 45 points from 44 games (theoretical maximum is therefore 51 points.)
Luton are the same (45 from 44 games, maximum 51).
Barnsley have 43 points from 43 games, so they can theoretically record 52 points.
To be mathematically certain of avoiding relegation, we therefore need 53 points.
We have 46.
R' is 7.4 -
Friend Or Defoe said:R and R' are now 6.
think you've missed Barnsley's game in hand which makes R' 71 -
Wigan are not safe (assuming the 12 point penalty is not overturned). They are ahead of Hull City (who are not safe) merely on Goal Difference (although admittedly by 27 goals).Sillybilly said:Table looks really scary. Wigan now virtually safe. Udders with a 2 point gap. One thing is now clear, we don’t have enough points. We need three. One each from remaining games or one win. To my mind that means tomorrow is genuinely shit or bust. I just hope bowyer picks an attacking midfield.
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The highest Hull OR Luton can get is 51 which puts the other on 48 max. They could split the profit at 49 each.Wigan’s highest point total is 51, but if we beat them we’ll finish above them.
Barnsley, having not played tonight, could still in theory make it to 52. With their rotten run in, I’m praying they’re adrift but mathematically speaking can’t discount them.
So 6 and 7’ depending on Wigan’s deduction. Hopefully dropping to 6’ tomorrow with a Barnsley loss, of which we’ll pick 3 up from a glorious 1-0 win over Brum.1 -
Almost perfect, RedRyan ... but Barnsley play on Thursday so any impression on R and R' tomorrow night is purely down to us.RedRyan said:The highest Hull OR Luton can get is 51 which puts the other on 48 max. They could split the profit at 49 each.Wigan’s highest point total is 51, but if we beat them we’ll finish above them.
Barnsley, having not played tonight, could still in theory make it to 52. With their rotten run in, I’m praying they’re adrift but mathematically speaking can’t discount them.
So 6 and 7 depending on Wigan’s deduction. Hopefully dropping to 5 tomorrow with a Barnsley loss, of which we’ll pick 3 up from a glorious 1-0 win over Brum.
And only a 1-0 win at Birmingham? Are you golfie in disguise?
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Go easy on him, rina. He's doing his best.rina said:Friend Or Defoe said:R and R' are now 6.
think you've missed Barnsley's game in hand which makes R' 7
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Dave Rudd said:
Almost perfect, RedRyan ... but Barnsley play on Thursday so any impression on R and R' tomorrow night is purely down to us.RedRyan said:The highest Hull OR Luton can get is 51 which puts the other on 48 max. They could split the profit at 49 each.Wigan’s highest point total is 51, but if we beat them we’ll finish above them.
Barnsley, having not played tonight, could still in theory make it to 52. With their rotten run in, I’m praying they’re adrift but mathematically speaking can’t discount them.
So 6 and 7 depending on Wigan’s deduction. Hopefully dropping to 5 tomorrow with a Barnsley loss, of which we’ll pick 3 up from a glorious 1-0 win over Brum.
And only a 1-0 win at Birmingham? Are you golfie in disguise?
Whoops didn’t realise Barnsley were an extra day before their match.
I’d more than happily take 1-0 from a scrappy in off the shin goalmouth scramble! (Although it would probably be flagged offside before they get given a penalty for Dillon handballing in the area)0 -
Get the win tomorrow, and the pressure is on Huddersfield, seeing that they have to play West Brom and Millwall and have a worse GD than we do. On 48 points they could easily be caught by Luton and Wigan
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