The Rule Breakers Wigan can get a total of 51 points (post 12pt deduction) - Still to face Charlton and Fulham Sheffield can only get a max of 50 points (post 12pt deduction - if it will even be applied) - Still to face Fulham and Middlesborough
The Slackers Barnsley can only get a total of 49 points - Facing Forest and Brentford Luton can only get a max of 51 - but must beat Hull to do so otherwise 49 points - facing Blackburn in the final fixture Hull can only get a max of 51 - but must beat Luton to do so otherwise 49 points - facing Cardiff in the final fixture
The Drowned Haddocks Charlton can achieve 53 points facing Wigan and Leeds.
The Yorkie Terriers Huddersfield can achieve 54 points, but have to overcome West Brom and Millwall to do so.
Meaning the perfect results are
Charlton vs Wigan - Charlton Sheffield vs Fulham - Fulham Barnsley vs Forest - Anything but a win. Luton vs Hull - Draw Huddersfield vs WestBrom - West Brom (Charlton Safe, Barnsley Relegated)
Wigan vs Fulham - Fulham Sheffield vs Middlesborough - M'Boro Barnsley vs Brentford - Anything. Luton vs Blackburn - B'Burn Hull vs Cardiff - Cardiff Charlton vs Leeds - Charlton Obvs - but in the prediction I've given it to Leeds Huddersfield vs Millwall - Millwall
In another prediction I've run I've allowed all the current relegation rivals to get max points, but where they play relegation rivals a draw is given - Wednesday lose both... Just because and Wigan pick up a win and a draw:
In another prediction I've run I've allowed all the current relegation rivals to get max points, but where they play relegation rivals a draw is given - Wednesday lose both... Just because and Wigan pick up a win and a draw:
In another prediction I've run I've allowed all the current relegation rivals to get max points, but where they play relegation rivals a draw is given - Wednesday lose both... Just because and Wigan pick up a win and a draw:
In another prediction I've run I've allowed all the current relegation rivals to get max points, but where they play relegation rivals a draw is given - Wednesday lose both... Just because and Wigan pick up a win and a draw:
The Luton win at Hull means that R is now =2 (Wigan and Barnsley are the critical teams), while R' stays at 4 (Luton are critical).
With only one game each to go now, and with our Goal Difference being so much better than all of the rivals (except Wigan), I'm prepared to take a point off R'.
Whilst Fulham will know that nothing less than a win means they're doomed to the Play-Offs
Of course they need West Brom / Brentford to lose but bet they'll feel stupid if that happens and they've taken their foot off the gas as they've not expected it
After last night's sparkling win, you can no longer (easily) get a price on us to be relegated. If you could, it would be in excess of 100/1.
However, we are not mathematically safe, of course. As it stands Gillingham could get 57 points, so the 'R' number (see original post on this thread for the explanation) is currently 15 (that's the 58 we need to be mathematically safe less the 43 points that we already have).
Note that this 'R' number will decrease as we gain points, but also as Gillingham (or whoever replaces them as the critical team) drop points.
As others have said, we may already have enough points to survive. It's a strange season.
After last night's sparkling win, you can no longer (easily) get a price on us to be relegated. If you could, it would be in excess of 100/1.
However, we are not mathematically safe, of course. As it stands Gillingham could get 57 points, so the 'R' number (see original post on this thread for the explanation) is currently 15 (that's the 58 we need to be mathematically safe less the 43 points that we already have).
Note that this 'R' number will decrease as we gain points, but also as Gillingham (or whoever replaces them as the critical team) drop points.
As others have said, we may already have enough points to survive. It's a strange season.
With 3 teams needing to achieve at least 10 points from 8 or 9 remaining fixtures, when they've not achieved 1 point per game thus far, makes Charlton's risk of relegation very small indeed. Not nil, but very small. Between them Fleetwood and Wimbledon have achieved a total of 2 points in their last 5 (each) fixtures. Even if Gillingham maintained their current rate of return and surpassed Charlton's points total, it looks most unlikely that the other 4 between us and them will all transform their form by the required factor. Which is all very meagre consolation indeed. Our likely points return (at current rates) of 53 points would rarely avoid relegation from League 1 and would almost never achieve anything as lofty as 16th. Indeed only 5 of the 8 teams below us have scored fewer goals. Rarely have so many sides scored so few points this far into a season.
After last night's sparkling win, you can no longer (easily) get a price on us to be relegated. If you could, it would be in excess of 100/1.
However, we are not mathematically safe, of course. As it stands Gillingham could get 57 points, so the 'R' number (see original post on this thread for the explanation) is currently 15 (that's the 58 we need to be mathematically safe less the 43 points that we already have).
Note that this 'R' number will decrease as we gain points, but also as Gillingham (or whoever replaces them as the critical team) drop points.
As others have said, we may already have enough points to survive. It's a strange season.
With 3 teams needing to achieve at least 10 points from 8 or 9 remaining fixtures, when they've not achieved 1 point per game thus far, makes Charlton's risk of relegation very small indeed. Not nil, but very small. Between them Fleetwood and Wimbledon have achieved a total of 2 points in their last 5 (each) fixtures. Even if Gillingham maintained their current rate of return and surpassed Charlton's points total, it looks most unlikely that the other 4 between us and them will all transform their form by the required factor. Which is all very meagre consolation indeed. Our likely points return (at current rates) of 53 points would rarely avoid relegation from League 1 and would almost never achieve anything as lofty as 16th. Indeed only 5 of the 8 teams below us have scored fewer goals. Rarely have so many sides scored so few points this far into a season.
53 points does not usually get you relegated (not once in the last 10 years, internet is too slow to go back further but it is certainly rare). 50 and you can look over your shoulder.
After last night's sparkling win, you can no longer (easily) get a price on us to be relegated. If you could, it would be in excess of 100/1.
However, we are not mathematically safe, of course. As it stands Gillingham could get 57 points, so the 'R' number (see original post on this thread for the explanation) is currently 15 (that's the 58 we need to be mathematically safe less the 43 points that we already have).
Note that this 'R' number will decrease as we gain points, but also as Gillingham (or whoever replaces them as the critical team) drop points.
As others have said, we may already have enough points to survive. It's a strange season.
With 3 teams needing to achieve at least 10 points from 8 or 9 remaining fixtures, when they've not achieved 1 point per game thus far, makes Charlton's risk of relegation very small indeed. Not nil, but very small. Between them Fleetwood and Wimbledon have achieved a total of 2 points in their last 5 (each) fixtures. Even if Gillingham maintained their current rate of return and surpassed Charlton's points total, it looks most unlikely that the other 4 between us and them will all transform their form by the required factor. Which is all very meagre consolation indeed. Our likely points return (at current rates) of 53 points would rarely avoid relegation from League 1 and would almost never achieve anything as lofty as 16th. Indeed only 5 of the 8 teams below us have scored fewer goals. Rarely have so many sides scored so few points this far into a season.
53 points does not usually get you relegated (not once in the last 10 years, internet is too slow to go back further but it is certainly rare). 50 and you can look over your shoulder.
I’ve just gone right back to 96/97 season, nobody from then (and likely before) has gone down in the 3rd tier with 53 points, Torquay and Grimsby were relegated closest in 04/05 & 03/04 with 51 & 50 respectively
Comments
The Rule Breakers
Wigan can get a total of 51 points (post 12pt deduction) - Still to face Charlton and Fulham
Sheffield can only get a max of 50 points (post 12pt deduction - if it will even be applied) - Still to face Fulham and Middlesborough
The Slackers
Barnsley can only get a total of 49 points - Facing Forest and Brentford
Luton can only get a max of 51 - but must beat Hull to do so otherwise 49 points - facing Blackburn in the final fixture
Hull can only get a max of 51 - but must beat Luton to do so otherwise 49 points - facing Cardiff in the final fixture
The Drowned Haddocks
Charlton can achieve 53 points facing Wigan and Leeds.
The Yorkie Terriers
Huddersfield can achieve 54 points, but have to overcome West Brom and Millwall to do so.
Meaning the perfect results are
Charlton vs Wigan - Charlton
Sheffield vs Fulham - Fulham
Barnsley vs Forest - Anything but a win.
Luton vs Hull - Draw
Huddersfield vs WestBrom - West Brom
(Charlton Safe, Barnsley Relegated)
Wigan vs Fulham - Fulham
Sheffield vs Middlesborough - M'Boro
Barnsley vs Brentford - Anything.
Luton vs Blackburn - B'Burn
Hull vs Cardiff - Cardiff
Charlton vs Leeds - Charlton Obvs - but in the prediction I've given it to Leeds
Huddersfield vs Millwall - Millwall
I think this ends up with
16 - Stoke - 50pts
17 - Charlton - 50pts
18 - Birmingham - 50pts
19 - Huddersfield - 48pts
20 - Hull - 46pts
21 - Luton - 46pts
22 - Wigan (R) - 45pts (57pts)
23 - Sheffield Wednesday (R) - 44pts (56pts)
24 - Barnsley (R) - 43pts
16 - Birmingham - 56pts
17 - QPR - 54pts
18 - Hudds - 54pts
19 - Charlton - 51 pts
20 - Wigan - 49pts (61pts)
21 - Barnsley - 49 pts
22 - Luton (R) - 49pts
23 - Hull (R) - 49 points
24 - Sheffield Wednesday (R) - 44pts (56pts)
Supa Dupa head burying in the sand.
The only 2 perfect results we need are, we beat Wigan and Hull/Luton draw. Then we're safe despite any results elsewhere.
That will change after the Hull City v Luton game.
With only one game each to go now, and with our Goal Difference being so much better than all of the rivals (except Wigan), I'm prepared to take a point off R'.
Wigan Vs Fulham gives me more hope than Luton Vs Blackburn
Of course they need West Brom / Brentford to lose but bet they'll feel stupid if that happens and they've taken their foot off the gas as they've not expected it
Bet thats the one that SKY will pick for coverage
However, we are not mathematically safe, of course. As it stands Gillingham could get 57 points, so the 'R' number (see original post on this thread for the explanation) is currently 15 (that's the 58 we need to be mathematically safe less the 43 points that we already have).
Note that this 'R' number will decrease as we gain points, but also as Gillingham (or whoever replaces them as the critical team) drop points.
As others have said, we may already have enough points to survive. It's a strange season.
Which is all very meagre consolation indeed. Our likely points return (at current rates) of 53 points would rarely avoid relegation from League 1 and would almost never achieve anything as lofty as 16th. Indeed only 5 of the 8 teams below us have scored fewer goals. Rarely have so many sides scored so few points this far into a season.
I'll go even more out on a limb and say that there will be a team finishing with about 45 points which isn't relegated.