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The mathematics of relegation

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  • North Lower Neil
    North Lower Neil Posts: 23,527
    Arsenetatters said:
    So if Oxford lose tonight and we win tomorrow does that make us safe?
    This is squeezing my brain
    If Oxford lose, we only need a draw from one of our 3 games.
  • Arsenetatters
    Arsenetatters Posts: 6,257
    North Lower Neil said:
    Arsenetatters said:
    So if Oxford lose tonight and we win tomorrow does that make us safe?
    This is squeezing my brain
    If Oxford lose, we only need a draw from one of our 3 games.
    Thank you
  • Crispywood
    Crispywood Posts: 1,823
    Arsenetatters said:
    So if Oxford lose tonight and we win tomorrow does that make us safe?
    This is squeezing my brain
    Oxford draw and we win tomorrow and we’re safe.
  • Alwaysneil
    Alwaysneil Posts: 14,343
    Always loved Wrexham, plucky little disney trinket that they've become. Come on do us a favour yah welsh freak show. 
  • KiwiValley
    KiwiValley Posts: 3,501
    So R = Really close to zero?
  • bromleyjohn
    bromleyjohn Posts: 6,020
    We are now safe compared to Oxford and can play with confidence tomorrow night
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 3,027
    edited April 21
    Good evening, Ladies and Gentlemen.

    First, let me extend our warmest thanks to 'Hollywood' Wrexham ... and offer a passing mention to Hull City.

    Tonight's results mean that Leicester can no longer catch us and that Oxford can only equal our magnificent 50 points tally.

    This means ...

    This means ...

    This means ...

    ... that R=1.

    Charlton Athletic ... you know what you have to do.
  • 2121
    2121 Posts: 1,525
    Draw is the best outcome tomorrow then 😂
  • PrincessFiona
    PrincessFiona Posts: 5,684
    bromleyjohn said:
    We are now safe compared to Oxford and can play with confidence tomorrow night
    No R=1 point
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 66,061
    R = 1

    Effectively the only way Charlton are now relegated is if:

    - Charlton lose to Ipswich, Hull and Swansea
    - Oxford beat Sheffield Wednesday and Millwall
    - Blackburn get one point or more from Sheffield United and Leicester

    Even then, it would come down to goal difference between the teams involved.

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  • Bedsaddick
    Bedsaddick Posts: 25,322
    Callumcafc said:
    R = 1

    Effectively the only way Charlton are now relegated is if:

    - Charlton lose to Ipswich, Hull and Swansea
    - Oxford beat Sheffield Wednesday and Millwall
    - Blackburn get one point or more from Sheffield United and Leicester

    Even then, it would come down to goal difference between the teams involved.
    If we lost our last three and Oxford won their last two , Oxford would have better goal difference than us. 
  • NomadicAddick
    NomadicAddick Posts: 2,218
    Bedsaddick said:
    Callumcafc said:
    R = 1

    Effectively the only way Charlton are now relegated is if:

    - Charlton lose to Ipswich, Hull and Swansea
    - Oxford beat Sheffield Wednesday and Millwall
    - Blackburn get one point or more from Sheffield United and Leicester

    Even then, it would come down to goal difference between the teams involved.
    If we lost our last three and Oxford won their last two , Oxford would have better goal difference than us. 
    Correct, -15 for us and -12 for them would be the minimum. If Oxford beat Wednesday and we lose to Ipswich and Hull, it will be fecking nervy. We have to get something from the Hull game.
  • PrincessFiona
    PrincessFiona Posts: 5,684
    edited April 22
    Bedsaddick said:
    Callumcafc said:
    R = 1

    Effectively the only way Charlton are now relegated is if:

    - Charlton lose to Ipswich, Hull and Swansea
    - Oxford beat Sheffield Wednesday and Millwall
    - Blackburn get one point or more from Sheffield United and Leicester

    Even then, it would come down to goal difference between the teams involved.
    If we lost our last three and Oxford won their last two , Oxford would have better goal difference than us. 
    Exactly - if Oxford won, their GD would improve by at least 2. If we lost all 3, our GD would be worse by at least 3.

    Fortunately, decreasingly likely
  • BigDiddy
    BigDiddy Posts: 1,405
    I’m not relaxing until it’s mathematically certain 
  • Ormiston_Addick
    Ormiston_Addick Posts: 8,838
    We are basically safe, it was damned ugly, but that doesn't matter.

    Its now between Oxford and Blackburn, with the former looking much more likely.

    Still, would be good to get one more point on the board to be absolutely sure! 
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 66,061
    edited April 21
    NomadicAddick said:
    Bedsaddick said:
    Callumcafc said:
    R = 1

    Effectively the only way Charlton are now relegated is if:

    - Charlton lose to Ipswich, Hull and Swansea
    - Oxford beat Sheffield Wednesday and Millwall
    - Blackburn get one point or more from Sheffield United and Leicester

    Even then, it would come down to goal difference between the teams involved.
    If we lost our last three and Oxford won their last two , Oxford would have better goal difference than us. 
    Correct, -15 for us and -12 for them would be the minimum. If Oxford beat Wednesday and we lose to Ipswich and Hull, it will be fecking nervy. We have to get something from the Hull game.
    This is all true but if Blackburn drew with Leicester and lost to Sheff Utd tomorrow, their goal difference would be -16 at best and they’d be the ones going down on GD instead of us.

    When it gets down to goal difference it just becomes messy so I’d rather we just got the point either tomorrow or on Saturday so we’re not going into the last day with a three point gap to Oxford, assuming they beat Wednesday this weekend.
  • KiwiValley
    KiwiValley Posts: 3,501
    Right it's settled. We win tomorrow and put the whole thing to bed.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 66,061
    KiwiValley said:
    Right it's settled. We do not lose tomorrow and put the whole thing to bed.


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  • J BLOCK
    J BLOCK Posts: 8,460
    KiwiValley said:
    Right it's settled. We win tomorrow and put the whole thing to bed.
    Lose tomorrow and a point v Hull. Perfect scenario. 
  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,705
    Hold on - thought we didn’t count goal difference in this methodology? Which means R = 0?!
  • SheedyCAFC
    SheedyCAFC Posts: 1,315
    Can we grind out a goalless draw to send The Valley into rapture?
  • Taxi_Lad
    Taxi_Lad Posts: 3,886
    The scenario is set. We help out the scum by losing tomorrow and they relegate us by losing to Oxford 
  • Diebythesword
    Diebythesword Posts: 737
    Yep reckon we’re safe now. Fantastic, now let’s play without fear tomorrow and Saturday to end the season at the valley on a high!
  • paulsturgess
    paulsturgess Posts: 4,283
    Ormiston_Addick said:
    We are basically safe, it was damned ugly, but that doesn't matter.

    Its now between Oxford and Blackburn, with the former looking much more likely.

    Still, would be good to get one more point on the board to be absolutely sure! 
    if blackburn
    are still in the conversation then so are we… both rely on Oxford winning x2 games and if that happens we are still in danger as we ain’t got an easy game left !
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 45,121
    Diebythesword said:
    Yep reckon we’re safe now. Fantastic, now let’s play without fear tomorrow and Saturday to end the season at the valley on a high!
    Yep, we'd score a worldy.
    But get caught on the counter 5 times.

    Which is why NJ plays attrition anti-football.
  • thenewbie
    thenewbie Posts: 11,422
    paulsturgess said:
    Ormiston_Addick said:
    We are basically safe, it was damned ugly, but that doesn't matter.

    Its now between Oxford and Blackburn, with the former looking much more likely.

    Still, would be good to get one more point on the board to be absolutely sure! 
    if blackburn
    are still in the conversation then so are we… both rely on Oxford winning x2 games and if that happens we are still in danger as we ain’t got an easy game left !
    A point tomorrow leaves it moot - two Oxford wins and nothing for Blackburn sends Blackburn down  instead of Oxford but we're safe no matter what with one point from three games.
  • Sage
    Sage Posts: 7,358
    edited April 21
    Draw tomorrow, get it done and be safe going into Saturday’s game being able to enjoy it.

    A draw mean Ipswich are 2 off 2nd with a game in hand and superior goal difference. Millwall won’t win their last 2, they’ll bottle it somewhere, meaning Ipswich need 7 from their last 4. Let’s get 1 point each tomorrow and Ipswich can win 2 of their last 3 and clinch 2nd on goal difference.

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