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The mathematics of relegation
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Interesting thread, thanks for posting it.1
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Apologies if I misinterpreted the purpose of the thread.superclive98 said:
Why 1.5 points per game?Exiled_Addick said:Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:
Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Blackburn 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.
Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.
Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts
Why not 1.4 or 1.6?
Whatever you choose, they are not all going to achieve it.
Also this thread is about absolutes.
As to why 1.5 points per game, as @MartinCAFC says, it's an estimate of a realistic maximum points total. 1.5 points per game is roughly equivalent to a couple of wins and one or two draws from everyone's (except Pompey's) remaining fixtures. I think all the teams below us would probably like to think that is doable for them between now and the end of the season, even if it will require an uptick in form.
Additionally, it's something like upper-midtable to lower-playoff type form over the course of a whole season. I think almost any team (except the outlier that is Sheff W, this season) is capable of (and has probably, at some point, achieved) that kind of form over a short burst.
Finally, it is also common for teams down the bottom to pick up a few more points than usual at the very end of the season as the effects of "something still to play for" vs. "already on the beach" start to kick in, and that needs to be factored into any estimated "safe points total".
So, based on my estimate, yes, we are probably just about there now, but not quite at a place where we wouldn't still be at risk if we were to allow complacency to set in and go on a disastrous run of straight defeats. Fortunately for us, we certainly don't have a manager, and probably not a set of players either, who would seem prone to complacency.1 -
whilst it maybe, probability in football is a bit of a lottery, else bookies would be taken to the cleaners. This is about mathematical certainty which is quite differentjimmymelrose said:
The thread shouldn't necessarily be about absolutes. Calculating probability is part of mathematics too.superclive98 said:
Why 1.5 points per game?Exiled_Addick said:Add 1.5 points per game to the totals of the teams below us (ignoring Sheff W). That is the maximum that any would realistically get between now and the end of the season. Even that is a stretch and even more so for all of them to do it, but if we do that, we get final points tallies:
Blackburn 5 games; 47 + 7 or 8 pts = 54 or 55 pts
WBA 5 games; 45 + 7 or 8 pts = 52 or 53 pts
Pompey 6 games; 42 + 9 pts = 51 pts
Leicester 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
Blackburn 5 games; 41 + 7 or 8 pts = 48 or 49 pts
So, on 49 points, we are still a touch vulnerable, but more than likely safe as, even though we are limping over the line a bit, I don't see us losing all 5 remaining matches and all those teams picking up as many points as the scenario above. One more draw or a win (which we really should get against Wednesday) and it's done.
Wild card remains Leicester's points deduction appeal still being unresolved but, if this article is accurate and they have actually breached PSR again; if anything, I would have thought and increased penalty may be more likely.
Leicester Have Breached PSR Again as Stefan Borson Analyses Club Accounts
Why not 1.4 or 1.6?
Whatever you choose, they are not all going to achieve it.
Also this thread is about absolutes.1 -
When we beat Birmingham on 7 March and hit 44 points, in the post match euphoria I thought at the time that at the end of the season it could well turn out that we’d probably then got enough points to stay up. Whilst one win for Pompey, Leicester and Oxford could still blow that prediction it’s probably easy to imagine two of those three just going into a complete meltdown for their remaining games now.0 -
R =4 now doesn't it?0
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I don't think so (unfortuantely) as both Oxford and Pompey won and we lost. Although Leicester and Pompey do have to play each otherswords_alive said:R =4 now doesn't it?1 -
I thought it was seven, but I want to hear what DR days.0
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If all results went against us between now and the end of the season, we’d need 57 points to guarantee we stay up. We are currently on 49 points.
=> R = 8
The number did not change from Easter Monday since we lost and Oxford won.3 -
Ahh yes, I only counted enough to draw level, not to be a point ahead. Thanks Callum.0
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I think it is still 8Stig said:I thought it was seven, but I want to hear what DR days.1 -
The magic number being 8 with 4 to play rather than 5 isn't great news. The silver linings are that the number to get ahead of Leicester is only 5 and that the figure for West Brom is down to 10, so there's a possibility of them getting dragged into it if Oxford disappoint us by going on a good run.
That late winner for Pompey was a bit of a sickener, though, even though it didn't change the actual R number.3 -
Just back home.
Unfortunately R stays at 8 after today's results.
The only change is that Leicester are no longer a 'critical team'. That honour falls to Oxford.
West Brom and Blackburn have been dragged a little closer to the pack ... but we still need to do what we still need to do.9 -
I think what I'm taking out of today is that while you can look mathematically and calculate the R, it's much harder to account for the "feeling" and intangible elements. It's one thing to sit down and work out safety is still quite possible and even probable, statistically speaking, it's hard not to FEEL like we are in trouble again.2
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Probably not but not as clear cut as we might have hopedthenewbie said:I think what I'm taking out of today is that while you can look mathematically and calculate the R, it's much harder to account for the "feeling" and intangible elements. It's one thing to sit down and work out safety is still quite possible and even probable, statistically speaking, it's hard not to FEEL like we are in trouble again.0 -
Just for clarity, tonight's Portsmouth 2-0 Ipswich result and Blackburn's defeat at Southampton have no direct effect on the R number (which remains at 8), but it does bring Blackburn back into the mix.
That might be important further down the line.1 -
Dave Rudd said:Just for clarity, tonight's Portsmouth 2-0 Ipswich result and Blackburn's defeat at Southampton have no direct effect on the R number (which remains at 8), but it does bring Blackburn back into the mix.
That might be important further down the line.
Every single twist and turn is amplified as the games begin to run out! For example, we beat the Wendies on Saturday and Oxford lose at Derby (both expected results based on league position - yes I know!) then R is down to 24 -
I can see Oxford winning at derbybobmunro said:Dave Rudd said:Just for clarity, tonight's Portsmouth 2-0 Ipswich result and Blackburn's defeat at Southampton have no direct effect on the R number (which remains at 8), but it does bring Blackburn back into the mix.
That might be important further down the line.
Every single twist and turn is amplified as the games begin to run out! For example, we beat the Wendies on Saturday and Oxford lose at Derby (both expected results based on league position - yes I know!) then R is down to 20 -
I can't.Bedsaddick said:
I can see Oxford winning at derbybobmunro said:Dave Rudd said:Just for clarity, tonight's Portsmouth 2-0 Ipswich result and Blackburn's defeat at Southampton have no direct effect on the R number (which remains at 8), but it does bring Blackburn back into the mix.
That might be important further down the line.
Every single twist and turn is amplified as the games begin to run out! For example, we beat the Wendies on Saturday and Oxford lose at Derby (both expected results based on league position - yes I know!) then R is down to 20 -
So I say Pompey have the hardest run in and they casually start beating all the promotion chasing teams.0
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Leicester are down in my opinion and it's either Oxford or West Brom to join them - the latter nailed on if they get a points deduction.3
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Blackburn being at a potentially title clinching Cov on Friday night is handy too. I wouldn't rule them out for the third spot. Oxford feels like a side that'll nick a result from somewhere unexpected, maybe turn over Hollywood FC at home.1
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Blackburn are at home.MarcusH26 said:Blackburn being at a potentially title clinching Cov on Friday night is handy too. I wouldn't rule them out for the third spot. Oxford feels like a side that'll nick a result from somewhere unexpected, maybe turn over Hollywood FC at home.0 -
So I believe if Blackburn fail to win tonight, the number is reduced from the current 8 down to 6 or 7 as Rovers’ maximum points tally would be fewer than Oxford’s.
Blackburn draw -> 7
Blackburn lose -> 62 -
Anybody else thinking this bloody countdown is slower than Kelmans strike rate.9
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As long as it’s not as slow as TCs strike rate. That would probably run into next seasonZulu said:Anybody else thinking this bloody countdown is slower than Kelmans strike rate.1 -
Confirmation that tonight's draw for Blackburn sees the R number drop to 7.
And Blackburn replace Oxford as the 'critical team'.
Let's be grateful for small mercies.12 -
why does it go down by only 1 point, as they drew and lost 2 potential points?Dave Rudd said:Confirmation that tonight's draw for Blackburn sees the R number drop to 7.
And Blackburn replace Oxford as the 'critical team'.
Let's be grateful for small mercies.0 -
If Blackburn won yesterday and other 2 games they would have finished on 57 max.PrincessFiona said:
why does it go down by only 1 point, as they drew and lost 2 potential points?Dave Rudd said:Confirmation that tonight's draw for Blackburn sees the R number drop to 7.
And Blackburn replace Oxford as the 'critical team'.
Let's be grateful for small mercies.
Oxford can only get 56 max if they win all 4.Blackburn since they drew yesterday can only now get to 55.Hence Oxford’s 56 max now goes to Blackburn 55 max which is why it’s 1 point3 -
You need to look at the maximum points that could be obtained by teams below us. Before the game Oxford could get 56 points and Leicester 50 hence CAFC need 57 points to be safe and R =8. After the game Blackburn became critical as their maximum is now 55. Hence CAFC need 56 points and R = 7. Hope this helpsPrincessFiona said:
why does it go down by only 1 point, as they drew and lost 2 potential points?Dave Rudd said:Confirmation that tonight's draw for Blackburn sees the R number drop to 7.
And Blackburn replace Oxford as the 'critical team'.
Let's be grateful for small mercies.0
