I thought I came out flat after having some money on Minella Times but having got on a bit late at 12/1.
I couldn’t get in my BetFred account at the time but thought I had discorama on there. Just logged in and I didn’t have discorama but did have a forgotten bet on Minella Times again at 12/1 so actually came out very healthily up in the end. Thanks @PeanutsMolloy 😁
I thought I came out flat after having some money on Minella Times but having got on a bit late at 12/1.
I couldn’t get in my BetFred account at the time but thought I had discorama on there. Just logged in and I didn’t have discorama but did have a forgotten bet on Minella Times again at 12/1 so actually came out very healthily up in the end. Thanks @PeanutsMolloy 😁
Fair run from Farclas, probably didn't see out the trip properly for all that he was 5th. Interesting that first five were 8,10,9,8,7 suggesting that younger horses are the ones to focus on.
One horse to keep in mind is Castlebawn West. Who beat Minella Times & Farclas at Christmas
Minellacelebration did in fact WIN ........... the best turned-out and his small yard had a winner yesterday. Should have pasted some glue on Ben Poste's arse.
I’m not knowledgeable on horses so grateful for insight. Jett was clearly a natural front runner but it was abundantly clear with hindsight it was travelling at an unsustainable pace.
Is that the jockey’s fault? Should they have been trying to hold it back a bit or were they right just letting it run at its natural pace even though it was unsustainable?
I’m not knowledgeable on horses so grateful for insight. Jett was clearly a natural front runner but it was abundantly clear with hindsight it was travelling at an unsustainable pace.
Is that the jockey’s fault? Should they have been trying to hold it back a bit or were they right just letting it run at its natural pace even though it was unsustainable?
I dont think the jockey could have done anything differently. At least at the front you are in control of the fences and its where the horse wanted to be. Happened last week in the Irish Grand National at 150/1 and the horse stayed there and won. Jett wasnt good enough but I think the jockey wanted to go out, make it a test and hold on for the place.
Thanks for your expertise once more @PeanutsMolloy. For various reasons myself and @Len\'s_little_girl were unable to post much if at all but we enjoyed following your analysis and finished 'up!'
I’m not knowledgeable on horses so grateful for insight. Jett was clearly a natural front runner but it was abundantly clear with hindsight it was travelling at an unsustainable pace.
Is that the jockey’s fault? Should they have been trying to hold it back a bit or were they right just letting it run at its natural pace even though it was unsustainable?
In the Irish National last week Free Wheeling Dylan led from start to finish and won at 150-1!
I’m not knowledgeable on horses so grateful for insight. Jett was clearly a natural front runner but it was abundantly clear with hindsight it was travelling at an unsustainable pace.
Is that the jockey’s fault? Should they have been trying to hold it back a bit or were they right just letting it run at its natural pace even though it was unsustainable?
It was, as it often is, the horse in charge to a large extent. His jock (Sam Waley Cohen) is an amateur but is also the winning-most jockey (6 wins) over the GN fences (rode Oscar Time to be 2nd and 4th in GNs) and addressed the question after the race:
"He's a horse you can't disappoint and in a couple of previous races he's had horses fall in front of him and he's been, 'no way, what am I doing here?'"
"So I said to Jessie I'd get him out in front and let him enjoy himself. While he was jumping like that, I thought 'keep going and enjoy yourself'. I was enjoying myself.
"I tried to give him a breather from the third-last to the second-last but he didn't just fill up again."
Can't argue with that really - never likely to last that far out in front but better than disappointing the horse.
Thanks for your expertise once more @PeanutsMolloy. For various reasons myself and @Len\'s_little_girl were unable to post much if at all but we enjoyed following your analysis and finished 'up!'
Cheers @LenGlover. You're very kind. I'm glad but not surprised that you and @Len\'s_little_girl finished up - you have an astute eye for picking out the good 'uns in these races. Many congrats and kind regards to you both. All the best.
Does anyone know what horse Rachael Blackmore will ride in the Scottish National next week and when is the declaration stage?
Doubt she'll be riding in that @RobinKeepsBobbin Hardly any Irish runners. Imagine Punchestown from 27 April is her main focus now.
You were dead right not to go with the market hype for Cloth Cap - well done. Hope you came out ahead.
I made about £30 profit thanks to Betfreds 8 places offer. I noticed Rachael has ridden Mister Fogpatches twice before. Finished 2nd and 3rd. They have moved the race to Sunday.
Does anyone know what horse Rachael Blackmore will ride in the Scottish National next week and when is the declaration stage?
Doubt she'll be riding in that @RobinKeepsBobbin Hardly any Irish runners. Imagine Punchestown from 27 April is her main focus now.
You were dead right not to go with the market hype for Cloth Cap - well done. Hope you came out ahead.
I made about £30 profit thanks to Betfreds 8 places offer. I noticed Rachael has ridden Mister Fogpatches twice before. Finished 2nd and 3rd. They have moved the race to Sunday.
well spotted - maybe she will then if he looks like he'll get in and they decide to come over. don't know the specifics but it seems to be a right palaver to take horses between Ireland and the UK at the moment. Not sure if they'll have shifted decs to Friday but it should be 2 days prior. Glad you were in profit yesterday and thanks for your very interesting thoughts on the thread. Cheers.
Scottish national if ground is good Some Chaos will be in with a great shout they have been keeping him for this race and run over hurdles on softer than ideal. He will be spot on for this and its a long way to travel for the yard but it was the biggest pot with a likely key going for the horse.
This years, i was out playing golf (not very well) i turned on my app and managed to get the final furlong, Was buzzing as i had 4 in the top 8.. turns out only one in top 5 and EW was top 5 not 8 oops also the one who won, i went to put a £10 on the nose just before but opted for another.
Great thread as ever Peanuts! love the fantastic insight and looks like you had another good year. Keep up the good work and roll on next year
Peanuts can your model be used on the Scottish National or any other race?
Afraid not @RobinKeepsBobbin Obviously there are trends for the Scot Nat but but my model takes quite a lot of specific data crunching. At the risk of sending you off for an afternoon snooze, I'll explain why I'm a one trick pony. Most trend-followers only look at winners stats and it's easy enough to put together some common characteristics of 10~20 past winners of any race. Only a handful will do the statistically correct thing of looking at the variance of performance to representation in respect of each of those stats (e.g. weight, age, experience etc) to test whether they actually might have "causation" or are simply a reflection of weight of numbers. What's "different" about my GN model is that it not only does the latter but also considers near-missers (both in previous renewals of the race and in each runner's career record). It's quite a labour of love (or derangement, if you share Mrs Molloy's view) to create a database for even just 7 GNs (analysing the race record of each of the 276 runners) and then to figure out statistically-meaningful stats. Unless you do that (and most trend-followers don't) firstly you mistake law of averages for causation and secondly you ignore the fact that a horse that near-missed as a result of misfortune (typical of a GN) has just as relevant stats to consider as the winner. So, to many trend-followers, Minella Times was an "outlier" because he'd never won a 3m+ chase and had no form at all at 26f+. But if you consider the stats of near-missers in GNs, considering his all round CV, you would not have been remotely surprised that he was capable of scoring. The whole thing takes a lot of prep, as you can imagine, but it's worth my while to do all this for a GN because the betting market for it is unique: above all it's inefficient, particularly distorted by hype, and opens early. You can be reasonably sure who's being targeted at it months in advance and so, assuming you're able to pick out the likely live contenders early, it's not unusual to be able to back eventual short-priced winners at 40/1+. For example, exactly the same thing happened in the market with Minella Times [40/1 pre-Cheltenham, rapidly shortening into 12/1 thereafter on the back of the jockey/trainer success] as happened to Dont Push It [40/1 when I backed it in Feb before the 2010 race and it drifted out to 70+ on the exchange during Cheltenham before AP picked him as his ride, his priced collapsed and he went off 10/1 jt fav]. Fortunately or unfortunately, there's simply no other race like it. But I'll probably have a dabble at Ayr - I usually do and invariably draw a total blank. Good luck. Cheers
Thanks Peanuts. The horse i mentioned Mister Fogpatches has been backed from 50/1 to 16/1 so maybe Rachael will ride it. I got on at 33/1 so i will probably lay most of off and settle for a free bet. I'm hoping Betfred offer a crazy amount of extra places again. That is probably the best offer for a long time.
This years, i was out playing golf (not very well) i turned on my app and managed to get the final furlong, Was buzzing as i had 4 in the top 8.. turns out only one in top 5 and EW was top 5 not 8 oops also the one who won, i went to put a £10 on the nose just before but opted for another.
Great thread as ever Peanuts! love the fantastic insight and looks like you had another good year. Keep up the good work and roll on next year
Cheers @johnnybev1987 You're very kind. I'm glad you enjoyed the thread. I'm sorry if I led you astray with a couple of my fancies. We'll score the tricast next year
This years, i was out playing golf (not very well) i turned on my app and managed to get the final furlong, Was buzzing as i had 4 in the top 8.. turns out only one in top 5 and EW was top 5 not 8 oops also the one who won, i went to put a £10 on the nose just before but opted for another.
Great thread as ever Peanuts! love the fantastic insight and looks like you had another good year. Keep up the good work and roll on next year
Cheers @johnnybev1987 You're very kind. I'm glad you enjoyed the thread. I'm sorry if I led you astray with a couple of my fancies. We'll score the tricast next year
I only made a slight loss as i had Farclas, but with your bets and think one of my own i was happy with 4 in top 8, just unfortunate it was the wrong bookie as only paid 5 lol
I love this thread every year, regardless of profit. There is some fantastic insight from you and other posters. keep up the good work, hope it was still profitable for you?
Thanks Peanuts. The horse i mentioned Mister Fogpatches has been backed from 50/1 to 16/1 so maybe Rachael will ride it. I got on at 33/1 so i will probably lay most of off and settle for a free bet. I'm hoping Betfred offer a crazy amount of extra places again. That is probably the best offer for a long time.
Nice one. I've just had a quick scan of his pedigree and, if it were a GN, I'd certainly take some positives from it:
X-chromosome link to Wild Risk, his 4th dam-sire is unusual (among GN runners in recent years, from memory only Saint Are had WR among his dam-sires, 5th ds in his case)
Damsire Witness Box was sire of Monbeg Dude (Welsh GN winner and GN 3rd - unlucky at that) and Scot Nat winner (and follow up near-misser) Godsmejudge
Indication of stamina in his family - related to Uncle Junior, twice winner over Punchestown's banks course at 4m. As it happens, more topically, also related to Colreevy (winner of the 20f Mares Chase at The Festival)
3 near-misses in 7 hurdles at c 24f but shaping in all of them as though he'd be better at further, so no big worry IMHO that he's still a maiden over fences having not run further than 22f yet. Best of luck
First one on my betting slip for the Scottish GN will be 9yo Cool Mix (33/1)
Staying on close 3rd in the 23.5f Rehearsal Chase in Nov (unlucky, having been badly inconvenienced by a faller), Takingrisks behind. 1lb lower mark now and nicely treated with Takingrisks (and thus Aye Right) on that run and a featherweight 10.02 to carry.
Made the frame all 5 runs since wind op a year ago but unexposed beyond 23.5f
Other than continually knocking on the door at shorter and shaping like he'd go well at an extended trip, being closely related to exceptional stayer Synchronised supports the proposition
Good jumper (100% completions in 14 chases, winning 2 and making the frame all but 3) and should love the ground (a winner at this meeting on Good)
Comments
I thought I came out flat after having some money on Minella Times but having got on a bit late at 12/1.
I couldn’t get in my BetFred account at the time but thought I had discorama on there. Just logged in and I didn’t have discorama but did have a forgotten bet on Minella Times again at 12/1 so actually came out very healthily up in the end. Thanks @PeanutsMolloy 😁
Great stuff @Alwaysneil
Many congrats.
One horse to keep in mind is Castlebawn West. Who beat Minella Times & Farclas at Christmas
The first 7yo to make the first 5 home in 34+ years.
Moral victory at least. Congrats.
Much appreciated.
Bit of tweaking to do though
and his small yard had a winner yesterday.
Should have pasted some glue on Ben Poste's arse.
Is that the jockey’s fault? Should they have been trying to hold it back a bit or were they right just letting it run at its natural pace even though it was unsustainable?
I guess the jockey has to know the horse.
I agree with @cafcfan1990and @LenGlover, @AFKABartram
It was, as it often is, the horse in charge to a large extent.
His jock (Sam Waley Cohen) is an amateur but is also the winning-most jockey (6 wins) over the GN fences (rode Oscar Time to be 2nd and 4th in GNs) and addressed the question after the race:
"He's a horse you can't disappoint and in a couple of previous races he's had horses fall in front of him and he's been, 'no way, what am I doing here?'"
"So I said to Jessie I'd get him out in front and let him enjoy himself. While he was jumping like that, I thought 'keep going and enjoy yourself'. I was enjoying myself.
"I tried to give him a breather from the third-last to the second-last but he didn't just fill up again."
Can't argue with that really - never likely to last that far out in front but better than disappointing the horse.
I'm glad but not surprised that you and @Len\'s_little_girl finished up - you have an astute eye for picking out the good 'uns in these races.
Many congrats and kind regards to you both.
All the best.
Bit early, even by my standards, to start a Grand National 2022 thread but there's your answer @Callumcafc
50/1 for both Run Wild Fred and Freewheelin Dylan with Bet365 already quoting for the race (5 place, 1/4 odds)
https://www.bet365.com/#/AC/B2/C172/D101/E59217568/F2/P10/
Bit of tweaking to do to the model before I start handing money over the Bob again.
Been a bloody long wait to prize a worthwhile wedge out this tight grip and I'm gonna savour it first
Hardly any Irish runners. Imagine Punchestown from 27 April is her main focus now.
You were dead right not to go with the market hype for Cloth Cap - well done. Hope you came out ahead.
don't know the specifics but it seems to be a right palaver to take horses between Ireland and the UK at the moment. Not sure if they'll have shifted decs to Friday but it should be 2 days prior.
Glad you were in profit yesterday and thanks for your very interesting thoughts on the thread.
Cheers.
Great thread as ever Peanuts! love the fantastic insight and looks like you had another good year. Keep up the good work and roll on next year
Afraid not @RobinKeepsBobbin
Obviously there are trends for the Scot Nat but but my model takes quite a lot of specific data crunching.
At the risk of sending you off for an afternoon snooze, I'll explain why I'm a one trick pony.
Most trend-followers only look at winners stats and it's easy enough to put together some common characteristics of 10~20 past winners of any race.
Only a handful will do the statistically correct thing of looking at the variance of performance to representation in respect of each of those stats (e.g. weight, age, experience etc) to test whether they actually might have "causation" or are simply a reflection of weight of numbers.
What's "different" about my GN model is that it not only does the latter but also considers near-missers (both in previous renewals of the race and in each runner's career record).
It's quite a labour of love (or derangement, if you share Mrs Molloy's view) to create a database for even just 7 GNs (analysing the race record of each of the 276 runners) and then to figure out statistically-meaningful stats.
Unless you do that (and most trend-followers don't) firstly you mistake law of averages for causation and secondly you ignore the fact that a horse that near-missed as a result of misfortune (typical of a GN) has just as relevant stats to consider as the winner.
So, to many trend-followers, Minella Times was an "outlier" because he'd never won a 3m+ chase and had no form at all at 26f+. But if you consider the stats of near-missers in GNs, considering his all round CV, you would not have been remotely surprised that he was capable of scoring.
The whole thing takes a lot of prep, as you can imagine, but it's worth my while to do all this for a GN because the betting market for it is unique: above all it's inefficient, particularly distorted by hype, and opens early. You can be reasonably sure who's being targeted at it months in advance and so, assuming you're able to pick out the likely live contenders early, it's not unusual to be able to back eventual short-priced winners at 40/1+.
For example, exactly the same thing happened in the market with Minella Times [40/1 pre-Cheltenham, rapidly shortening into 12/1 thereafter on the back of the jockey/trainer success] as happened to Dont Push It [40/1 when I backed it in Feb before the 2010 race and it drifted out to 70+ on the exchange during Cheltenham before AP picked him as his ride, his priced collapsed and he went off 10/1 jt fav].
Fortunately or unfortunately, there's simply no other race like it.
But I'll probably have a dabble at Ayr - I usually do and invariably draw a total blank.
Good luck.
Cheers
You're very kind. I'm glad you enjoyed the thread. I'm sorry if I led you astray with a couple of my fancies.
We'll score the tricast next year
I love this thread every year, regardless of profit. There is some fantastic insight from you and other posters. keep up the good work, hope it was still profitable for you?
Nice one.
I've just had a quick scan of his pedigree and, if it were a GN, I'd certainly take some positives from it:
- X-chromosome link to Wild Risk, his 4th dam-sire is unusual (among GN runners in recent years, from memory only Saint Are had WR among his dam-sires, 5th ds in his case)
- Damsire Witness Box was sire of Monbeg Dude (Welsh GN winner and GN 3rd - unlucky at that) and Scot Nat winner (and follow up near-misser) Godsmejudge
- Indication of stamina in his family - related to Uncle Junior, twice winner over Punchestown's banks course at 4m. As it happens, more topically, also related to Colreevy (winner of the 20f Mares Chase at The Festival)
3 near-misses in 7 hurdles at c 24f but shaping in all of them as though he'd be better at further, so no big worry IMHO that he's still a maiden over fences having not run further than 22f yet.Best of luck