A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places). Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years. Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground. First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut.
Thanks @johnnybev1987 indeed, You pays ya money, you takes ya choice. I suspect he either goes close or is nowhere. That’s nailed him on for 6th.
Havent used bet365 for a while and cant do the know your customer verification. It just says your account is verified and step 2 complete but when I try to add funds it says I need to verify my account for feck sake.
All sorted. Nothing that a little bit of live chat couldn't out. Lets win some wonga!
A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places). Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years. Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground. First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut.
33/1 6 places now available on Betfair Sportsbook.
Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?
Cheers @Boom You're very kind. Glad you've enjoyed it. You're right - as I managed to get them early at high prices, I've been able to back all 7 best-rated by my model and did add a couple of potential "black swans" (Some Neck, now refunded of course, and availing myself of Bob's kind 50%-refund, Farclas effectively at 40s) Used the money back on Some Neck to do some switching, now giving me 7 places on Minellacelebration and Alpha Des Obeaux, (5 places on all the others) so at least the possibility/dream of a clean sweep's alive. So, I'm on:
Model's top winning candidates:
Magic Of Light
Discorama
Cloth Cap
Next best:
Kimberlite Candy
Minella Times
Minellacelebration (7 pl)
Alpha Des Obeaux (7 pl)
"Black Swan": Farclas
The book doesn't aim to shoot the lights out but deliver another year of profit (has done so, while always in evolution, 12 of last 14 years) but when the model picks out 3 clear top-rated and a 100/1 and a 80/1 shot as live chances, got to have a "jackpot" play or two. So, I've also got
a few tricasts (the top-3 rated by the model and then each of the long-shots MinellaC and Alpha paired with all possible pairs from the top 3 rated)
a slug of wild prices hoovered up on the exchanges for Minellacelebration to win
Dom Perignon all round if he does ......... if I haven't had a cardiac arrest riding him home from the elbow
Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?
Yes thanks Peanuts, fantastic insight. Not sure I'm very lucky for you as I read this thread every year and haven't done particularly well on your picks that I chose to go with. Not blaming you, I just seem to pick the wrong ones.
This year I have taken your advice on Discorama, Minellallacelebration and Magic of Light (already a fan admittedly). Farclas, Definitely Red and Yala Enki (owes me nothing from the last few years) complete my line up.
A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places). Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years. Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground. First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut.
Thanks @johnnybev1987 indeed, You pays ya money, you takes ya choice. I suspect he either goes close or is nowhere. That’s nailed him on for 6th.
and so it was.... brave Sir Robin took one look at the fences and shat himself
A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places). Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years. Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground. First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut.
Thanks @johnnybev1987 indeed, You pays ya money, you takes ya choice. I suspect he either goes close or is nowhere. That’s nailed him on for 6th.
and so it was.... brave Sir Robin took one look at the fences and shat himself
i had the winner in my lucky 31 so not too dissapointed, 3/4(wins) so far so a win or place in the last would be ok
Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?
Yes thanks Peanuts, fantastic insight. Not sure I'm very lucky for you as I read this thread every year and haven't done particularly well on your picks that I chose to go with. Not blaming you, I just seem to pick the wrong ones.
This year I have taken your advice on Discorama, Minellallacelebration and Magic of Light (already a fan admittedly). Farclas, Definitely Red and Yala Enki (owes me nothing from the last few years) complete my line up.
Cheers @cafcfan1990 Really appreciate your comment and confidence. The model has struggled to adapt to the changed character of the race post 2012 (won't bore you with the whys and wherefores) - it's done OK but not as consistent as previously. Having made the leap this year to using only data from 2013 for the first time, obviously I'm really hoping it will be a bit more on the money. If I could only have 3 running for me, on this ground, it would be Discorama and Magic for the best chances (certainly at the best value) and Minellacelebration for the craic, as they say. Fingers crossed.
A wee dabble, just to have an e/w interest in the Topham today - Robin Des Foret (28/1, 5 places). Good form over 21~24f vs Any Second Now and Burrows Saint in the last 2 years. Can be inconsistent but trip perfect and should love the ground. First time over the fences - if he takes to them and is on a going-day, could be in biz at a worthwhile price.
extra place you can get for 20/1 on 365 peanut.
Thanks @johnnybev1987 indeed, You pays ya money, you takes ya choice. I suspect he either goes close or is nowhere. That’s nailed him on for 6th.
and so it was.... brave Sir Robin took one look at the fences and shat himself
i had the winner in my lucky 31 so not too dissapointed, 3/4(wins) so far so a win or place in the last would be ok
near miss 4th in the last one, ew was top 3 blaming @bobmunro as sky were doing top 4 rubbish
Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?
Yes thanks Peanuts, fantastic insight. Not sure I'm very lucky for you as I read this thread every year and haven't done particularly well on your picks that I chose to go with. Not blaming you, I just seem to pick the wrong ones.
This year I have taken your advice on Discorama, Minellallacelebration and Magic of Light (already a fan admittedly). Farclas, Definitely Red and Yala Enki (owes me nothing from the last few years) complete my line up.
Cheers @cafcfan1990 Really appreciate your comment and confidence. The model has struggled to adapt to the changed character of the race post 2012 (won't bore you with the whys and wherefores) - it's done OK but not as consistent as previously. Having made the leap this year to using only data from 2013 for the first time, obviously I'm really hoping it will be a bit more on the money. If I could only have 3 running for me, on this ground, it would be Discorama and Magic for the best chances (certainly at the best value) and Minellacelebration for the craic, as they say. Fingers crossed.
Well best of luck, I'm sure you'll get a few places and a few pints owed!
I always pick a couple at crazy odds, you swung it with Minellacelebration for me.
Stating the obvious but think Cloth Cap is perfectly handicapped and do feel it wins if it goes round. No value in picking a horse at 5/1 in the National for obvious reasons but could see it winning very comfortably.
I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration. Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places. What could possibly go wrong?
Thanks Peanuts.
I've added Cloth Cap to win in place of Some Neck.
I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration. Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places. What could possibly go wrong?
Thanks Peanuts.
I've added Cloth Cap to win in place of Some Neck.
I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration. Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places. What could possibly go wrong?
Thanks Peanuts.
I've added Cloth Cap to win in place of Some Neck.
Comments
indeed, You pays ya money, you takes ya choice.
I suspect he either goes close or is nowhere. That’s nailed him on for 6th.
Houx Gris
Chantry House
Fakir D O
Livelovelaugh
Streets of Doyen
just a punt really, i did go ew on the one peanuts recommended as i backed last week aswell, ITV7 i have Rachel Blackmore in the last not Streets of D
On the slip.
Cheers.
Not to be this year.
Cracking stuff as always Peanuts.
Out of interest, how many horses have you backed for the GN? Presumably all your picks and a couple of other cheeky punts?
bristol de mai
definately red
acapella beorgois
anniable fly
all small money ew. 6 places
You're very kind. Glad you've enjoyed it.
You're right - as I managed to get them early at high prices, I've been able to back all 7 best-rated by my model and did add a couple of potential "black swans" (Some Neck, now refunded of course, and availing myself of Bob's kind 50%-refund, Farclas effectively at 40s)
Used the money back on Some Neck to do some switching, now giving me 7 places on Minellacelebration and Alpha Des Obeaux, (5 places on all the others) so at least the possibility/dream of a clean sweep's alive.
So, I'm on:
Model's top winning candidates:
- Magic Of Light
- Discorama
- Cloth Cap
Next best:- Kimberlite Candy
- Minella Times
- Minellacelebration (7 pl)
- Alpha Des Obeaux (7 pl)
"Black Swan": FarclasThe book doesn't aim to shoot the lights out but deliver another year of profit (has done so, while always in evolution, 12 of last 14 years) but when the model picks out 3 clear top-rated and a 100/1 and a 80/1 shot as live chances, got to have a "jackpot" play or two. So, I've also got
- a few tricasts (the top-3 rated by the model and then each of the long-shots MinellaC and Alpha paired with all possible pairs from the top 3 rated)
- a slug of wild prices hoovered up on the exchanges for Minellacelebration to win
Dom Perignon all round if he does ......... if I haven't had a cardiac arrest riding him home from the elbowHope yours do well for you Boom
Best of luck.
Every winner of it to date has previously won at 4m+ and I reckon they'll call it for Scottish GN winner Takingrisks.
This year I have taken your advice on Discorama, Minellallacelebration and Magic of Light (already a fan admittedly). Farclas, Definitely Red and Yala Enki (owes me nothing from the last few years) complete my line up.
Really appreciate your comment and confidence.
The model has struggled to adapt to the changed character of the race post 2012 (won't bore you with the whys and wherefores) - it's done OK but not as consistent as previously. Having made the leap this year to using only data from 2013 for the first time, obviously I'm really hoping it will be a bit more on the money.
If I could only have 3 running for me, on this ground, it would be Discorama and Magic for the best chances (certainly at the best value) and Minellacelebration for the craic, as they say.
Fingers crossed.
I always pick a couple at crazy odds, you swung it with Minellacelebration for me.
Stating the obvious but think Cloth Cap is perfectly handicapped and do feel it wins if it goes round. No value in picking a horse at 5/1 in the National for obvious reasons but could see it winning very comfortably.