So I am better cashing out my 100/1 Minellacelebration e/w bet and placing the same amount at 80/1 then replacing all the 50% refunds on the same horse until I get down to a few pennies as overall I would get a better return I think?
So I am better cashing out my 100/1 Minellacelebration e/w bet and placing the same amount at 80/1 then replacing all the 50% refunds on the same horse until I get down to a few pennies as overall I would get a better return I think?
yeah i am guessing i might aswell do this, seems a bit silly any existing ones aren't applied the same way. Maybe its not possible, but a right ball ache, i am sure there are the reasons eg. declared runners etc
Just to emphasise one statlet that many are already aware of.
In the last 4 GNs, Irish-trained runners have represented 38% of the total fields. But, they've contributed 3 of the 4 winners of course and 65% of the horses finishing 1~5.
In the last 2 GNs, only 2 non-Irish trained runners made the first 5 home (closest being 4th).
Coming on the back of the Irish supremacy at Cheltenham, if you're weighing alternative last minute fancies, it might be worth bearing that in mind.
Just to emphasise one statlet that many are already aware of.
In the last 4 GNs, Irish-trained runners have represented 38% of the total fields. But, they've contributed 3 of the 4 winners of course and 65% of the horses finishing 1~5.
In the last 2 GNs, only 2 non-Irish trained runners made the first 5 home (closest being 4th).
Coming on the back of the Irish supremacy at Cheltenham, if you're weighing alternative last minute fancies, it might be worth bearing that in mind.
To think certain individuals think Irish horses are badly handicapped when they come over. But, more to the point, others actually listen to them and put in print the garbage spouted by them!
did I see somewhere that Betfred are offering e/W 8 places for bets placed tomorrow and Friday?
I've not seen that anywhere & it's not advertised, not that they would advertise it as no one would place any bets today. I don't recall anyone paying 8 places, usually 7 is the max.
Nobody beats the bet365 offer!!
Anyone who allows me 66p or over will!
Bet365 (if you're a mug) Bet£3.65 (if there's a chance you ever look like you might show a small profit)
I backed Canelo at 109/1 and Shattered Love at 94/1 and part layed them for no loss if they lose and a few hundred pounds if they win. My main bet is Magic of Light each way and i couldn't resist Peanuts Minellacellebration each way.
Just to emphasise one statlet that many are already aware of.
In the last 4 GNs, Irish-trained runners have represented 38% of the total fields. But, they've contributed 3 of the 4 winners of course and 65% of the horses finishing 1~5.
In the last 2 GNs, only 2 non-Irish trained runners made the first 5 home (closest being 4th).
Coming on the back of the Irish supremacy at Cheltenham, if you're weighing alternative last minute fancies, it might be worth bearing that in mind.
can we have a short summary of your picks please ?
Ratings-wise, the model's top selections are:
Top-rated (best fit with winners/near-missers since 2013):
· Magic Of Light
· Discorama
· Cloth Cap (drier the better)
Next best (identical stat-scores):
· Minellacelebration
· Kimberlite Candy (more juice in the ground the better)
· Minella Times
· Alpha Des Obeaux
I've backed all these early-ish at average odds of just over 50/1 - the average now is more like 32/1 though Bob's kind offer can mitigate the drop.
I've also added 2 potential "black swans" (i.e. stat-outliers) Some Neck (50/1 NRNB 6 places) and Farclas (effectively 40/1 with Bet365 offer). So quite a big team but the odds available when I backed them enabled that and I'm obviously aiming for a winner and a couple places among them - hoping for a clean-sweep naturally I need 2 places to breakeven.
All the individual CV summaries (all but Farclas) are over the last few pages - can be picked out fairly easily.
How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now.
@PeanutsMolloy I presume we're talking early doors Saturday for your final selections? Thanks as ever for my favourite thread of the year
The ones above are they @dmjn unless the heavens open - not forecast. Glad you've enjoyed the thread and hope your choices (and mine!) bring home the bacon.
@PeanutsMolloy I presume we're talking early doors Saturday for your final selections? Thanks as ever for my favourite thread of the year
The ones above are they @dmjn unless the heavens open - not forecast. Glad you've enjoyed the thread and hope your choices (and mine!) bring home the bacon.
Your choices are my choices for the past 5 or 6 years
How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now.
He was nowhere near the top 40. He couldn't possibly have got in with such a low weight.
How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now.
The horse shouldn't be available to back with any bookmaker.
How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now.
The horse shouldn't be available to back with any bookmaker.
It is a marketing trick. They let you bet on anything. They know they will have to refund you but most people will use the refund to bet on something else instead of withdrawing it.
How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now.
He was nowhere near the top 40. He couldn't possibly have got in with such a low weight.
How comes it was suggested Le Breuil wont run? He is still available in the betting and not really sure where that has come from when i put him the other day someone said he wasn't running, Any ideas? i assumed they are all locked in now.
The horse shouldn't be available to back with any bookmaker.
Thanks guys, i did find it odd it was still available so didn't want to strike off when i put all my bets back on due to the Bet365 offer.
I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration. Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places. What could possibly go wrong?
I'm on Minella Times, Kimberlite Candy, Discorama, Magic of Light, Forclas, Some Neck, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minellacelebration. Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places. What could possibly go wrong?
Thanks Peanuts.
Best keep the thanks in reserve till 5.25 on Saturday. Thanks for your vote of confidence - much appreciated. Fingers crossed.
Comments
Glad I'm not on it 😁
Not true - I allow a discrete amount of time after AFKA has placed his bets before hitting the button. It would be too obvious otherwise!
14.20 - Adagio 5/4
14.50 - Waiting Patiently 10/3
15.05 - Flanagans Field 15/2
15.25 - McFabulous 11/2
16.05 - Cat Tiger 13/2
16.40 - Getaway Trump 8/1
Done them as e/w doubles and an e/w acca.
In the last 4 GNs, Irish-trained runners have represented 38% of the total fields.
But, they've contributed 3 of the 4 winners of course and 65% of the horses finishing 1~5.
In the last 2 GNs, only 2 non-Irish trained runners made the first 5 home (closest being 4th).
Coming on the back of the Irish supremacy at Cheltenham, if you're weighing alternative last minute fancies, it might be worth bearing that in mind.
To think certain individuals think Irish horses are badly handicapped when they come over. But, more to the point, others actually listen to them and put in print the garbage spouted by them!
Bet£3.65 (if there's a chance you ever look like you might show a small profit)
can we have a short summary of your picks please ?
TODAY ? .. Nostalgic & hopeful ;.. Buveur D'Air & Tiger Roll e/w double
Top-rated (best fit with winners/near-missers since 2013):
· Magic Of Light
· Discorama
· Cloth Cap (drier the better)
Next best (identical stat-scores):
· Minellacelebration
· Kimberlite Candy (more juice in the ground the better)
· Minella Times
· Alpha Des Obeaux
I've backed all these early-ish at average odds of just over 50/1 - the average now is more like 32/1 though Bob's kind offer can mitigate the drop.I've also added 2 potential "black swans" (i.e. stat-outliers) Some Neck (50/1 NRNB 6 places) and Farclas (effectively 40/1 with Bet365 offer).
So quite a big team but the odds available when I backed them enabled that and I'm obviously aiming for a winner and a couple places among them - hoping for a clean-sweep naturally
I need 2 places to breakeven.
All the individual CV summaries (all but Farclas) are over the last few pages - can be picked out fairly easily.
Glad you've enjoyed the thread and hope your choices (and mine!) bring home the bacon.
13:45 - Fusil Raffles 3/1
14:20 - Adagio 11/8
14:50 - Clondaw Castle 6/1
15:25 - Silver Streak 16/1 EW
16:05 - Sametegal 13/2. Tango De Juilley 20/1 EW
17:15 - Elle Est Belle 3/1
Alwaysneil called it.
Edit its voided now....
Some bets placed weeks ago at better prices on Bet365, some placed today with Bet365's money back offer, and some on Betfred with 8 places.
What could possibly go wrong?
Thanks Peanuts.
Lake View Lad at BIG odds is a tempter .. he rarely falls and has unsung champ Brian Hughes on board .. thing is he's now 11 and as slow as a turtle .. perhaps £1 e/w
Best keep the thanks in reserve till 5.25 on Saturday. Thanks for your vote of confidence - much appreciated.
Fingers crossed.