At the Grand National Festival over the past six years ALL 84 handicap races were won by a horse that had finished first or second in at least one of there last three races
A couple of interesting points about yesterday's Irish GN, run at a lung-busting pace on quick ground with the front 2 prominent all the way.
The 1st (cp), 3rd (bl) and 4th (cp) were 3 of the 4 runners wearing first-time headgear of one form or another.
Both winner (Freewheelin Dylan) and 2nd (Run Wild Fred) not only have Wild Risk on the damsides of their pedigrees but they have a (relatively uncommon) X-chromosome (i.e. "big heart gene") link to Wild Risk or Vimy (son of Wild Risk).
I've mentioned before the very strong correlation down the years of GN winners (and near-missers) with Wild Risk in their pedigree. But there's a noticeable difference in the typical location of WR in their pedigrees in pre-2013 GNs to 2013+ GNs.
Pre-2013 the link was typically (though not exclusively) via the Sire's "top-line":
Rhyme n Reason - won 1987
Seagram - won 1991
Romany King - close 2nd 1992
Rough Quest - won 1996
Bobbyjo - won 1999
Whats Up Boys - close 2nd 2002
Montys Pass - won 2003
Supreme Glory - 2nd 2003
Amberleigh House - won 2004
Clan Royal - 2nd 2004 & 3rd 2006
Hedgehunter - won 2005 & 2nd 2006
Royal Auclair [damside] - 2nd 2005
Numbersixvalverde [sire and damsire] - won 2006
Silver Birch - won 2007
McKelvey [damsire] - close 2nd 2007
Comply Or Die - won 2008 & 2nd 2009
Dont Push It - won 2010
Black Apalachi - 2nd 2010
Sunnyhillboy - close 2nd 2011
..... all had such links to Wild Risk. But, though of course there can still be links to WR via the sire, the predominant link since the post-2012 course changes (that made the race a test of stamina at speed as opposed to jumping prowess) has been to the dam-side. This might be logical in that it's no longer simply the synergistic qualities of Wild Risk's genotype that's significant to GN success but, perhaps more so now, also the transmission of a "big heart" gene via the X Chromosome, which can only be delivered to a colt via its dam. Having such a "big heart" link to Wild Risk (or to one of his progeny that was significant in the pedigree of former GN winners/near-missers) is evident in all 7 GN winners post-2012 (and 3 near-missers):
Auroras Encore (dam-sire Rainbow Quest, recipient and conveyor the particularly powerful combination of WR and Herbager X-Chromosomes) - 2013 winner
Pineau De Re (2nd dam-sire Carmont, dam-sire of Royal Auclair)
Many Clouds (3rd dam-sire Le Bavard, dam-sire of No6valverde and McKelvey) - 2015 winner
Saint Are (5th dam-sire was Wild Risk himself) - 2nd 2015 and 3rd 2017
Rule The World (2nd dam-sire Busted, Gr-Sire of Seagram, Romany King, Rough Quest, Bobbyjo & No6valverde) - 2016 winner
One For Arthur (zig-zag via dam to Vimy, dam-sire of Rubstic) - 2017 winner
Cause Of Causes (dam-sire Rainbow Quest) - 2nd 2017
Tiger Roll (zig zag via dam to Le Fabuleux, dam-sire of Montelimar, sire of Montys Pass and Hedgehunter) - 2018 & 19 winner
Magic Of Light (dam-sire Saumarez, son of Rainbow Quest)
Bear in mind that this is nowhere near enough to automatically make a GN winner (you need to tick a lot of other boxes) and there are a number of other runners with less prominent but still potentially significant Wild Risk presence on their dam-sides. But the answer to the $64,000 question?
To cast the net as broadly as possible, there are 17 runners among the top 43 remaining with Wild Risk somewhere on the damside of their pedigrees (interestingly, at 40% that's markedly below the average 59% representation 2013~19). There are 10 (shown in bold) that has a direct zig-zag (big heart gene) link to (or is inbred to) Wild Risk or one of his progeny prominent in the pedigree of a former GN winner or 2nd. These might be considered the most powerful representations of Wild Risk in the pedigree for winning GN purposes, providing that their other stats measure up (many don't).
Ballyoptic (inbred to Camenae, daughter of Vimy)
Definitly Red (Worden, Gr-Sire of Le Bavard & Carmont)
Lake View Lad
Magic Of Light (Saumarez)
Talkischeap (Vimy)
Tout Est Permis (Le Fabuleux)
Kimberlite Candy
Shattered Love (Vimy)
Class Conti
Minellacelebration
Cloth Cap (Vimy)
Give me A Copper
Canelo
The Long Mile
Farclas (Worden)
Minella Times (Sheer Grit, dam-sire of Supreme Glory GN 2nd)
Double Shuffle (Le Bavard)
We can probably say that Ballyoptic, Definitly Red, and Double Shuffle are a tad long in the tooth and have had their chance. Same probably applies to Lake View Lad but he'll hate the ground anyway. Class Conti's half-brothers (Silviniaco Conti and Ucello Conti) didn't go well enough to suggest he'll be scoring. Tout Est Permis hasn't been in great form and nor has Talkischeap. That leaves 10, with the hot favourite Cloth Cap among them ominously in bold. But so too is Magic Of Light, Minella Times and @PolzeathNick 's irresistible fancy 7 yo Farclas.
Cross-referencing all 17 with another strong trend for post-2012 GN winners (10 of 13 winners/near-missers had a dam-sire that had also sired or dam-sired a Group 1 winner at 10f+ notching RPR120+), there are just 3 that fit both requirements:
Cloth Cap (4/1)
Magic Of Light (20/1)
Shattered Love (50/1)
Though the dam-sires of Kimberlite Candy, Farclas & Minella Times sired G1 winners at <10f or at 10f+ but <RPR120.
Hi Peanuts - what chance do you give Run Wild Fred?
Sorry to be slow getting back @801912601 Very interesting pick out is Fred. He'll be fortunate to make the cut with OR140 (not impossible but I'm estimating the cut will come among the 142s) but he’s got a very promising profile actually. Ticks a surprising number of boxes given he's only run 6 times over fences under Rules and, including an age and inexperience penalty, he only fails 3 of my Screentests. That would put him in the top 10 or thereabouts, so unlikely to figure at the business end but at 40/1 NRNB there are plenty worse e/w shouts. Thyestes 2nd was very impressive, shaping like he'd be better at further (and the winner and 5th have won since) but, as a 7 yo novice who only started chasing in October, in my (or rather my model's) view it’s a year too early for him. I know Rule The World was technically a novice when he won but he had a lot more experience and had near-missed in an Irish GN. No 7yo GN winner for 81 years now and barely a place to speak of in living memory but I do think we'll likely see a 7 yo winner (or at least near-misser) in the near future, indicated by the fact that 8 yos are doing much better in the post-2012 GNs. One to keep an eye on an maybe back early for next year.
Great summary. Knew I recognised the name. 2nd in the Irish GN at 9/1. Likely to be among the favourites for Aintree 2022?
He did tip his hand obviously with that fine run but you could still get 40s for half of those now at 10-14/1 for this year's race before Christmas (even pre-Cheltenham for Disco and Minella Times). This year is so competitive partly because you've got 2 years worth of possibilities to test as debutants in the race. If they're young enough (as highly likely) the winner and any near-missing will be the main focus of interest for next year and maybe keep prices for the likes of Fred sensible for quite a while. Might well have a few bob on him myself
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - out of interest, where do Takingrisks and Milan Native come out in your model? Thanks!
I am mulling over the former on the basis of the SGN form on Spring ground and then his recent victory over Aye Right which looks good form. He looks another who like Alpha Des Obeaux could be a big price horse on decent ground to poke at 4-5-6.
Milan Native I'm less taken with but he's still on the long list. Obviously has Kim Muir form but then narrowly beat Discorama (who is my #1 pick so despite the 2 lbs to win by a short head I would have to like Milan Native to like Discorama), ended up getting stuffed putting it up to Minella Indo and has put in 3 poor runs since. A head scratcher.
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - out of interest, where do Takingrisks and Milan Native come out in your model? Thanks!
I am mulling over the former on the basis of the SGN form on Spring ground and then his recent victory over Aye Right which looks good form. He looks another who like Alpha Des Obeaux could be a big price horse on decent ground to poke at 4-5-6.
Milan Native I'm less taken with but he's still on the long list. Obviously has Kim Muir form but then narrowly beat Discorama (who is my #1 pick so despite the 2 lbs to win by a short head I would have to like Milan Native to like Discorama), ended up getting stuffed putting it up to Minella Indo and has put in 3 poor runs since. A head scratcher.
No worries @ISawLeaburnScore They’re both interesting, even if (obviously) not quite making it onto my team. I’ll give you a summary tomorrow morning if that’s OK.
Farclas not in the Topham decs, so appears all systems go for the National now. Was set to run off 152 in the Topham but gets to run off 146 in the National, so maybe that swayed them. Fingers crossed he stays!!!
Hi @PeanutsMolloy - out of interest, where do Takingrisks and Milan Native come out in your model? Thanks!
I am mulling over the former on the basis of the SGN form on Spring ground and then his recent victory over Aye Right which looks good form. He looks another who like Alpha Des Obeaux could be a big price horse on decent ground to poke at 4-5-6.
Milan Native I'm less taken with but he's still on the long list. Obviously has Kim Muir form but then narrowly beat Discorama (who is my #1 pick so despite the 2 lbs to win by a short head I would have to like Milan Native to like Discorama), ended up getting stuffed putting it up to Minella Indo and has put in 3 poor runs since. A head scratcher.
Sorry for the delay @ISawLeaburnScore So, as I said, they're both rated OK on suitable ground stats-wise by my current model, just not quite making it to my short list.
Takingrisks
I'll try not to repeat what's already known (stamina proven, recent form excellent setting career-high 3m+ RPR155) but here are the key points as my model sees it:
Age - going appears to be more important. Though his Scot GN win was on quick ground, the fact that he's as a 12 yo suggests he'd be better served by Soft (supported by his best 2 3m+ RPRs). As they say about chasers, with age they tend to lose speed but gain stamina (though the latter's possibly a illusory by-product of the former!) and GNs increasingly seem to be bearing that out with only 2 runners >11yo making the frame in the last 6 runnings, both doing so on Soft (Vics Canvas 2016 and Bless The Wings 2018). Oscar Time did so in 2013 but the ground that year was definitely on the slow side of GS (all runners famously still standing after Bechers) to avoid the dangers that came home to haunt the race in 2012. Even treating 2013 as regular GS, the stats for 12yo+ are since 2013: on GS (8.5% of fields, 4% of 1~5), on Soft (14.3% of fields, 20% of 1~5) BUT to divide up only 7 GNs (a small enough sample in the first place) between 5 on GS and 2 on Soft makes for a very small sample with results to be taken with a large pinch.
Not worried about miles on clock with 21 chases - Auroras Encore (also with strong Scot GN form of course) won it in 2013 with 23, Cause Of Causes had 22 when he near-missed in 2017, Balthazar King 21 when 2nd in 2014 and Saint Are 21 when near-missing in 2015 (and 31 when 3rd in 2017)
Good strike rate of 50% wins/near-misses in 12 chases at 3m+ and goes well in the spring (3 wins from 5 chases Mar~Apr)
Despite a rise of 4lbs in mark to 150 again (having lost off this mark a year ago), his GNOR and weight (10.07) won't stop him IMHO - perfectly workable given his CV.
Excellent jumping record (hasn't failed to complete in over 3 years and 13 chases). No reason to think he won't handle the GN fences as a debutant but will he do so at the likely pace? One can instinctively question the value of hurdles form as a GN yardstick but a best hurdle RPR of 133+ if no form over the GN fences is a strongish stat post-2012 (26% of fields failed the stat, they contributed 6% of 1~5) - his is 129 from 11 attempts.
Pedigree is OK for frame-making but short of typical GN winners/near-missers. No Wild Risk at all, dam-sire Good Thyne also dam-sire of Our Duke but no GN connection and no G1 winner on the flat. Interestingly, via his 5th dam, Takingrisks and Potters Corner are related.
3 runs in the season (1 win) is perfect but the last 70 days prior, though within One For Arthur's 84, is tempered by his poor record when fresh (1 win & 1 place from 6 chases after 50+ days break)
My model's stat-score for him: on soft = 4 fails / on GS = 5 fails
BUT - please don't let me put you off backing him if you fancy him - it's definitely not a crystal ball. For his chase record and season's form, I agree with you 40/1 e/w is a pretty interesting proposition and think he could put in a great run.
Why are so many people still backing Secret Reprieve? He should be at least 4/1 to get a run. Unless i have made a big mistake anything not mentioned here has little to no chance of a run
8yo, 2nd season-chaser (better record in GNs post-2012) with a Kim Muir win on soft on his CV - what's not to like? Again, he's not far off stats-wise:
But a GNOR149 does look a tad high relative to his form - his best chase RPR150 was vs Discorama (as you say, he'll be 4lbs badly off at the weights with him), equalling that notched in last season's Kim Muir. But the quality of that race doesn't look great - the first 6 home notching only 2 wins from 30 subsequent runs. True that Cloth Cap was well adrift in that race but the ground was against him.
PU in the 29f Porterstown, his only run >26f and off the same OR149 as on Saturday, doesn't look great on paper but it was a quality race and he ran exactly like a horse with a wind problem (with the leaders 3 out but tank totally emptied before the last). Similarly folded tamely in the ultra-competitive PP Hdcp in December and no surprise he then had a wind op.
Only 1 run since, losing a shoe when 19L behind the nicely-weighted Vintage Clouds in the Ultima. But he didn't jump particularly well or travel early on and was never close enough to land a blow and, to me, he looks like a candidate for first-time headgear for Saturday - we'll find out at decs tomorrow.
The ground may be a concern. He's run respectably on Gd/Y at up to 20f and won on Yielding at 16f but 34f on quickish ground is another ballgame. As John Francome always says (I paraphrase), "there's nothing that saps a stayer's stamina more than having to go quicker than they want to".
Pedigree is good for a GN. Sired Milan (sire of One For Arthur and Double Seven, 6L 3rd in 2014 - both on decent ground to give some encouragement). Dam-sire Be My Native (same as Kimberlite Candy) was dam-sire to a number of top stayers (Native River and GN 2nd Black Apalachi). 3rd dam-sire (Pitpan) was dam-sire to Slim Pickings (GN close 3rd and 4th). No obvious GN connection in his maternal family and no Wild Risk anywhere in the pedigree however - no problem with frame-making but a negative for coming home in front.
5 runs in the season with a win, the last 25 days prior (not a hard-fought finish) is fine stats-wise
Stat-score by my model: on Soft 3 fails (without a positive trait = big run but no cigar); on GS = 4 fails (but the going fail is a questionable)
Hope these musings are of help but, again, please don't let me put you off backing him. He could go a lot better than recent form suggests and at 28/1 for 6 places, could easily pay off. Particularly interested to see if they try headgear.
As of Wednesday morning, the ground is good to soft, good in places on the hurdle and chase tracks on the Mildmay course, while it has been changed to good to soft on the National course, with a going stick reading of 5.4.
Going stick readings are not the most reliable indicator but for ref, that's a tad softer than the going stick reading for raceday for the 2013 GN (6.0 - officially Good to Soft but on the slow side). In 2017 (officially GS, Good places) it was 6.6).
Forecast
Some light showers are possible on Wednesday night with up to 2mm of rainfall, before a dry and cloudy Thursday with a potential brief spell of up to 2mm of rain during the night.
It is expected to be cloudy on Friday and Saturday, with some scattered sleety showers possible.
Clerk of the course says:
"We're very pleased with where the ground is, the Grand National course is good to soft all over after running an irrigation cycle through the night. It was another frosty start this morning and we did have a brief blizzard yesterday evening. We still have a wintry feel to things.
"We're watering the Mildmay course today with 3-5mm, we'd like to start on good to soft all over on that tomorrow, but we'll have to see where it's at on Thursday morning.
"It's quite possible we might need to water again on the National course in places. We're monitoring it and seeing what the weather does over the next couple of days and if we need to water overnight, it's something we can do. It's a 'watch this space' situation."
Some Neck the latest of the outsiders to catch a tailwind - generally 25s now but 33/1 for 6 places still available with BetVictor (1/5 odds), 40/1 with Bet365 5 places and 1/4 odds, both NRNB (he needs at least 2 maybe 3 above him to come out to line up). That was an overlooked good 3rd in the XC and, as noted previously, if he handles the fences (it is a big "if") he could be a big player at the business end. 4 stat-fails but his GN-related positive trait is a rare and interesting one that aligns with a select few GN winners/near-missers (Rule The World, One For Arthur, Cause Of Causes and Tiger Roll) - a full house of dam-sires (1~3) that have also sired or dam-sired G1 winners at 10f+ with RPR120+. As a reality-check, he doesn't have the strength of other stats that they had but he looks like he has the stamina and he carries a featherweight 10.01. Have to confess I talked myself into a reckless nibble at 50s for 6 places the other day..... I've always been partial to a reckless nibble
did I see somewhere that Betfred are offering e/W 8 places for bets placed tomorrow and Friday?
I've not seen that anywhere & it's not advertised, not that they would advertise it as no one would place any bets today. I don't recall anyone paying 8 places, usually 7 is the max.
I think Takingrisks had a wind op before his last run.
You're right - though it was in early Nov, before his very decent (unlucky) 4th behind Yorkhill in the Rehearsal Chase. Made a huge diff. Win at Donny was a career-best according to the RP. Good enough for the handicapper to put another 1lb on Cloth Cap at the time on collateral form via Aye Right.
did I see somewhere that Betfred are offering e/W 8 places for bets placed tomorrow and Friday?
I've not seen that anywhere & it's not advertised, not that they would advertise it as no one would place any bets today. I don't recall anyone paying 8 places, usually 7 is the max.
did I see somewhere that Betfred are offering e/W 8 places for bets placed tomorrow and Friday?
I've not seen that anywhere & it's not advertised, not that they would advertise it as no one would place any bets today. I don't recall anyone paying 8 places, usually 7 is the max.
I’m sure then I heard it advertised on the radio, would ha e been absolute radio,
did I see somewhere that Betfred are offering e/W 8 places for bets placed tomorrow and Friday?
I've not seen that anywhere & it's not advertised, not that they would advertise it as no one would place any bets today. I don't recall anyone paying 8 places, usually 7 is the max.
@PeanutsMolloy thanks very much for the expert insight into Milan Native and Takingrisks. Whilst mulling over the 40/1 on the latter he's now 33s!
I'm more inclined to side with Takingrisks of the two. 3 consecutive prior poor runs is a lot to forgive for a National horse and I actually think Milan Native has lost any genuine value at around 25-28/1 which is reflected by the fact he's 46 on Betfair.
In contrast, generally 33/1 I'd view Takingrisks as more like a 25/1 shot which I think is where he'd be if he had a more fashionable trainer and was 10 or 11 rather than 12.
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Though many of my bets were antepost, for me it's a 2nd bite of the cherry at effectively double the odds for any extra fancies. While I go with my stats, like many here I rate @PolzeathNick's opinion highly and think the form of the Paddy Power Hdcp in Dec (and subsequent Grade A at Leopardstown) looks really good (represented by both Minella Times and Farclas).
Got MT already at 40s but I've taken the opportunity to add Farclas to my slip, also effectively at 40/1, cos despite not among the best rated by my model, I think he's a good candidate to be a stat-outlier, being a 7yo and one of the 6 in the race to (more or less) tick both key boxes on the damside of his pedigree. As PolzeathNick says he may not stay but that applies to all the unexposed youngsters - at least one of them tends to go close, particularly since the course changes. 6lbs well in, he's a dangerous customer if he does stay so (like Some Neck if he handles the fences), happy to add him at a tasty price.
Comments
- The 1st (cp), 3rd (bl) and 4th (cp) were 3 of the 4 runners wearing first-time headgear of one form or another.
- Both winner (Freewheelin Dylan) and 2nd (Run Wild Fred) not only have Wild Risk on the damsides of their pedigrees but they have a (relatively uncommon) X-chromosome (i.e. "big heart gene") link to Wild Risk or Vimy (son of Wild Risk).
I've mentioned before the very strong correlation down the years of GN winners (and near-missers) with Wild Risk in their pedigree. But there's a noticeable difference in the typical location of WR in their pedigrees in pre-2013 GNs to 2013+ GNs.Pre-2013 the link was typically (though not exclusively) via the Sire's "top-line":
- Rhyme n Reason - won 1987
- Seagram - won 1991
- Romany King - close 2nd 1992
- Rough Quest - won 1996
- Bobbyjo - won 1999
- Whats Up Boys - close 2nd 2002
- Montys Pass - won 2003
- Supreme Glory - 2nd 2003
- Amberleigh House - won 2004
- Clan Royal - 2nd 2004 & 3rd 2006
- Hedgehunter - won 2005 & 2nd 2006
- Royal Auclair [damside] - 2nd 2005
- Numbersixvalverde [sire and damsire] - won 2006
- Silver Birch - won 2007
- McKelvey [damsire] - close 2nd 2007
- Comply Or Die - won 2008 & 2nd 2009
- Dont Push It - won 2010
- Black Apalachi - 2nd 2010
- Sunnyhillboy - close 2nd 2011
..... all had such links to Wild Risk.But, though of course there can still be links to WR via the sire, the predominant link since the post-2012 course changes (that made the race a test of stamina at speed as opposed to jumping prowess) has been to the dam-side.
This might be logical in that it's no longer simply the synergistic qualities of Wild Risk's genotype that's significant to GN success but, perhaps more so now, also the transmission of a "big heart" gene via the X Chromosome, which can only be delivered to a colt via its dam.
Having such a "big heart" link to Wild Risk (or to one of his progeny that was significant in the pedigree of former GN winners/near-missers) is evident in all 7 GN winners post-2012 (and 3 near-missers):
- Auroras Encore (dam-sire Rainbow Quest, recipient and conveyor the particularly powerful combination of WR and Herbager X-Chromosomes) - 2013 winner
- Pineau De Re (2nd dam-sire Carmont, dam-sire of Royal Auclair)
- Many Clouds (3rd dam-sire Le Bavard, dam-sire of No6valverde and McKelvey) - 2015 winner
- Saint Are (5th dam-sire was Wild Risk himself) - 2nd 2015 and 3rd 2017
- Rule The World (2nd dam-sire Busted, Gr-Sire of Seagram, Romany King, Rough Quest, Bobbyjo & No6valverde) - 2016 winner
- One For Arthur (zig-zag via dam to Vimy, dam-sire of Rubstic) - 2017 winner
- Cause Of Causes (dam-sire Rainbow Quest) - 2nd 2017
- Tiger Roll (zig zag via dam to Le Fabuleux, dam-sire of Montelimar, sire of Montys Pass and Hedgehunter) - 2018 & 19 winner
- Magic Of Light (dam-sire Saumarez, son of Rainbow Quest)
Bear in mind that this is nowhere near enough to automatically make a GN winner (you need to tick a lot of other boxes) and there are a number of other runners with less prominent but still potentially significant Wild Risk presence on their dam-sides. But the answer to the $64,000 question?To cast the net as broadly as possible, there are 17 runners among the top 43 remaining with Wild Risk somewhere on the damside of their pedigrees (interestingly, at 40% that's markedly below the average 59% representation 2013~19).
There are 10 (shown in bold) that has a direct zig-zag (big heart gene) link to (or is inbred to) Wild Risk or one of his progeny prominent in the pedigree of a former GN winner or 2nd. These might be considered the most powerful representations of Wild Risk in the pedigree for winning GN purposes, providing that their other stats measure up (many don't).
- Ballyoptic (inbred to Camenae, daughter of Vimy)
- Definitly Red (Worden, Gr-Sire of Le Bavard & Carmont)
- Lake View Lad
- Magic Of Light (Saumarez)
- Talkischeap (Vimy)
- Tout Est Permis (Le Fabuleux)
- Kimberlite Candy
- Shattered Love (Vimy)
- Class Conti
- Minellacelebration
- Cloth Cap (Vimy)
- Give me A Copper
- Canelo
- The Long Mile
- Farclas (Worden)
- Minella Times (Sheer Grit, dam-sire of Supreme Glory GN 2nd)
- Double Shuffle (Le Bavard)
We can probably say that Ballyoptic, Definitly Red, and Double Shuffle are a tad long in the tooth and have had their chance. Same probably applies to Lake View Lad but he'll hate the ground anyway. Class Conti's half-brothers (Silviniaco Conti and Ucello Conti) didn't go well enough to suggest he'll be scoring.Tout Est Permis hasn't been in great form and nor has Talkischeap.
That leaves 10, with the hot favourite Cloth Cap among them ominously in bold.
But so too is Magic Of Light, Minella Times and @PolzeathNick 's irresistible fancy 7 yo Farclas.
Cross-referencing all 17 with another strong trend for post-2012 GN winners (10 of 13 winners/near-missers had a dam-sire that had also sired or dam-sired a Group 1 winner at 10f+ notching RPR120+), there are just 3 that fit both requirements:
- Cloth Cap (4/1)
- Magic Of Light (20/1)
- Shattered Love (50/1)
Though the dam-sires of Kimberlite Candy, Farclas & Minella Times sired G1 winners at <10f or at 10f+ but <RPR120.Not a bad 3 or 6
He did tip his hand obviously with that fine run but you could still get 40s for half of those now at 10-14/1 for this year's race before Christmas (even pre-Cheltenham for Disco and Minella Times). This year is so competitive partly because you've got 2 years worth of possibilities to test as debutants in the race.
If they're young enough (as highly likely) the winner and any near-missing will be the main focus of interest for next year and maybe keep prices for the likes of Fred sensible for quite a while.
Might well have a few bob on him myself
I am mulling over the former on the basis of the SGN form on Spring ground and then his recent victory over Aye Right which looks good form. He looks another who like Alpha Des Obeaux could be a big price horse on decent ground to poke at 4-5-6.
Milan Native I'm less taken with but he's still on the long list. Obviously has Kim Muir form but then narrowly beat Discorama (who is my #1 pick so despite the 2 lbs to win by a short head I would have to like Milan Native to like Discorama), ended up getting stuffed putting it up to Minella Indo and has put in 3 poor runs since. A head scratcher.
No worries @ISawLeaburnScore
They’re both interesting, even if (obviously) not quite making it onto my team.
I’ll give you a summary tomorrow morning if that’s OK.
So, as I said, they're both rated OK on suitable ground stats-wise by my current model, just not quite making it to my short list.
Takingrisks
I'll try not to repeat what's already known (stamina proven, recent form excellent setting career-high 3m+ RPR155) but here are the key points as my model sees it:
- Age - going appears to be more important. Though his Scot GN win was on quick ground, the fact that he's as a 12 yo suggests he'd be better served by Soft (supported by his best 2 3m+ RPRs). As they say about chasers, with age they tend to lose speed but gain stamina (though the latter's possibly a illusory by-product of the former!) and GNs increasingly seem to be bearing that out with only 2 runners >11yo making the frame in the last 6 runnings, both doing so on Soft (Vics Canvas 2016 and Bless The Wings 2018). Oscar Time did so in 2013 but the ground that year was definitely on the slow side of GS (all runners famously still standing after Bechers) to avoid the dangers that came home to haunt the race in 2012. Even treating 2013 as regular GS, the stats for 12yo+ are since 2013: on GS (8.5% of fields, 4% of 1~5), on Soft (14.3% of fields, 20% of 1~5) BUT to divide up only 7 GNs (a small enough sample in the first place) between 5 on GS and 2 on Soft makes for a very small sample with results to be taken with a large pinch.
- Not worried about miles on clock with 21 chases - Auroras Encore (also with strong Scot GN form of course) won it in 2013 with 23, Cause Of Causes had 22 when he near-missed in 2017, Balthazar King 21 when 2nd in 2014 and Saint Are 21 when near-missing in 2015 (and 31 when 3rd in 2017)
- Good strike rate of 50% wins/near-misses in 12 chases at 3m+ and goes well in the spring (3 wins from 5 chases Mar~Apr)
- Despite a rise of 4lbs in mark to 150 again (having lost off this mark a year ago), his GNOR and weight (10.07) won't stop him IMHO - perfectly workable given his CV.
- Excellent jumping record (hasn't failed to complete in over 3 years and 13 chases). No reason to think he won't handle the GN fences as a debutant but will he do so at the likely pace? One can instinctively question the value of hurdles form as a GN yardstick but a best hurdle RPR of 133+ if no form over the GN fences is a strongish stat post-2012 (26% of fields failed the stat, they contributed 6% of 1~5) - his is 129 from 11 attempts.
- Pedigree is OK for frame-making but short of typical GN winners/near-missers. No Wild Risk at all, dam-sire Good Thyne also dam-sire of Our Duke but no GN connection and no G1 winner on the flat. Interestingly, via his 5th dam, Takingrisks and Potters Corner are related.
- 3 runs in the season (1 win) is perfect but the last 70 days prior, though within One For Arthur's 84, is tempered by his poor record when fresh (1 win & 1 place from 6 chases after 50+ days break)
My model's stat-score for him: on soft = 4 fails / on GS = 5 failsBUT - please don't let me put you off backing him if you fancy him - it's definitely not a crystal ball. For his chase record and season's form, I agree with you 40/1 e/w is a pretty interesting proposition and think he could put in a great run.
Milan Native coming shortly.
the head-scratcher, Milan Native
8yo, 2nd season-chaser (better record in GNs post-2012) with a Kim Muir win on soft on his CV - what's not to like?
Again, he's not far off stats-wise:
- But a GNOR149 does look a tad high relative to his form - his best chase RPR150 was vs Discorama (as you say, he'll be 4lbs badly off at the weights with him), equalling that notched in last season's Kim Muir. But the quality of that race doesn't look great - the first 6 home notching only 2 wins from 30 subsequent runs. True that Cloth Cap was well adrift in that race but the ground was against him.
- PU in the 29f Porterstown, his only run >26f and off the same OR149 as on Saturday, doesn't look great on paper but it was a quality race and he ran exactly like a horse with a wind problem (with the leaders 3 out but tank totally emptied before the last). Similarly folded tamely in the ultra-competitive PP Hdcp in December and no surprise he then had a wind op.
- Only 1 run since, losing a shoe when 19L behind the nicely-weighted Vintage Clouds in the Ultima. But he didn't jump particularly well or travel early on and was never close enough to land a blow and, to me, he looks like a candidate for first-time headgear for Saturday - we'll find out at decs tomorrow.
- The ground may be a concern. He's run respectably on Gd/Y at up to 20f and won on Yielding at 16f but 34f on quickish ground is another ballgame. As John Francome always says (I paraphrase), "there's nothing that saps a stayer's stamina more than having to go quicker than they want to".
- Pedigree is good for a GN. Sired Milan (sire of One For Arthur and Double Seven, 6L 3rd in 2014 - both on decent ground to give some encouragement). Dam-sire Be My Native (same as Kimberlite Candy) was dam-sire to a number of top stayers (Native River and GN 2nd Black Apalachi). 3rd dam-sire (Pitpan) was dam-sire to Slim Pickings (GN close 3rd and 4th). No obvious GN connection in his maternal family and no Wild Risk anywhere in the pedigree however - no problem with frame-making but a negative for coming home in front.
- 5 runs in the season with a win, the last 25 days prior (not a hard-fought finish) is fine stats-wise
Stat-score by my model: on Soft 3 fails (without a positive trait = big run but no cigar); on GS = 4 fails (but the going fail is a questionable)Hope these musings are of help but, again, please don't let me put you off backing him. He could go a lot better than recent form suggests and at 28/1 for 6 places, could easily pay off. Particularly interested to see if they try headgear.
As of Wednesday morning, the ground is good to soft, good in places on the hurdle and chase tracks on the Mildmay course, while it has been changed to good to soft on the National course, with a going stick reading of 5.4.
Going stick readings are not the most reliable indicator but for ref, that's a tad softer than the going stick reading for raceday for the 2013 GN (6.0 - officially Good to Soft but on the slow side). In 2017 (officially GS, Good places) it was 6.6).
Forecast
Some light showers are possible on Wednesday night with up to 2mm of rainfall, before a dry and cloudy Thursday with a potential brief spell of up to 2mm of rain during the night.
It is expected to be cloudy on Friday and Saturday, with some scattered sleety showers possible.
Clerk of the course says:
"We're very pleased with where the ground is, the Grand National course is good to soft all over after running an irrigation cycle through the night. It was another frosty start this morning and we did have a brief blizzard yesterday evening. We still have a wintry feel to things.
"We're watering the Mildmay course today with 3-5mm, we'd like to start on good to soft all over on that tomorrow, but we'll have to see where it's at on Thursday morning.
"It's quite possible we might need to water again on the National course in places. We're monitoring it and seeing what the weather does over the next couple of days and if we need to water overnight, it's something we can do. It's a 'watch this space' situation."
4 stat-fails but his GN-related positive trait is a rare and interesting one that aligns with a select few GN winners/near-missers (Rule The World, One For Arthur, Cause Of Causes and Tiger Roll) - a full house of dam-sires (1~3) that have also sired or dam-sired G1 winners at 10f+ with RPR120+.
As a reality-check, he doesn't have the strength of other stats that they had but he looks like he has the stamina and he carries a featherweight 10.01.
Have to confess I talked myself into a reckless nibble at 50s for 6 places the other day..... I've always been partial to a reckless nibble
I don't recall anyone paying 8 places, usually 7 is the max.
I'm more inclined to side with Takingrisks of the two. 3 consecutive prior poor runs is a lot to forgive for a National horse and I actually think Milan Native has lost any genuine value at around 25-28/1 which is reflected by the fact he's 46 on Betfair.
In contrast, generally 33/1 I'd view Takingrisks as more like a 25/1 shot which I think is where he'd be if he had a more fashionable trainer and was 10 or 11 rather than 12.
I think he's probably the last one on my slip!
Be rude not to.
A couple of extra interests and refund applied immediately.
Sadly not @AFKABartram
Though many of my bets were antepost, for me it's a 2nd bite of the cherry at effectively double the odds for any extra fancies.
While I go with my stats, like many here I rate @PolzeathNick's opinion highly and think the form of the Paddy Power Hdcp in Dec (and subsequent Grade A at Leopardstown) looks really good (represented by both Minella Times and Farclas).
We do the same offer every year!!