I've been marvelling at this thread constantly. So much good information, Peanuts.
However, it seems as if it's been a more difficult year to pick a couple out that stand out from the crowd. Looking generally at what you've written, would I be right in saying that there is no horse that really fits a solid winning profile this year, as there have been in most other years? So we're more likely to cop an outlier?
Cheers @PaddyP17 Sorry to be so slow getting back - been a bit tied up today. You're spot on as ever and the short answer to your question is yes. To explain why, let's summarise the back-tested results of the model (please note an obvious but important CAVEAT EMPTOR about back-testing below *). In the 7 GNs from 2013:
all 7 winners and 5 of the 6 finishing <5L of them had 0~1 fails of the 10 Screentests. All 13 had at least 1 positive trait (as described in a recent post)
31 of the 35 finishing 1st~5th had 0~2 fails. 29 of those 31 had at least 1 positive trait, importantly including all of those with 2 fails.
So, while 0~1 fails looks ideal, let's define a "Target Rating" as 0 or 1 fail or 2 fails with at least 1 positive trait (+). Each of those 7 GNs had at least 3 runners with 0 or 1 test fails or, more broadly, 5~7 runners with a Target Rating 0~2+ (40 in total = 14.5% of total runners). Of those 40, other than the 31 that finished 1~5th, another 3 finished 6th. Of the remaining 6, 3 fell (incl The Druids Nephew in 2015), 1 was 8th as a 7yo (Cause Of Causes) and 1 didn't handle the going (Saint Are 2016). So, 77.5% (31 of 40) of those with a Backable Rating finished in the frame and most of the rest ran creditably. Looks great doesn't it but, again, this is a model constructed with the benefit of 20:20 hindsight - please see CAVEAT EMPTOR below *.
To answer your question, assuming we're on Good to Soft, this year we have only 4 runners with a Target Rating and only 1 runner with the "ideal" 0~1 test fail. None with 0 fails, though that was true in 2 of the 7 previous years. Even if the model has some degree of validity, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune common to any GN, there is clearly a greater chance of an outlier winner.
So, what to do? Outside the Target Rating range, the dispersion of performance appears generally to be more random but the presence of at least 1 positive trait (+) appears to retain significance, as one might expect. For example, 11 runners 2013~19 had 2 fails but no positive trait - none made the frame. But, of the 4 "outliers" to make the frame, all had at least 1 positive trait. An interesting year to consider is one of those years without a perfect (0 fail) runner, 2015, which also had the joint fewest 5 runners with a Target Rating (and was run on GS). These 5 were:
The Druids Nephew 1++ (fell 6 out when leading)
Cause Of Causes 1++ (8th as a 7yo, ridden conservatively)
Many Clouds 1+ (won)
Monbeg Dude 1+ (3rd)
Saint Are 2++ (2nd)
But also that year:
4th was Alvarado (rating 3+)
5th was Shutthefrontdoor (4+ [4th fail borderline])
6th was Royale Knight (3+)
Portrait King (the only other 3+ in the race) fell 3 out when with the leaders though getting outpaced
In fact, there were 12 runners 2013~19 with a 3+ rating and, aside from the 3 above, another 3 ran creditably as far as they got (Long Run 2nd when falling at the 9th, Pleasant Company going well in 2017 and 2019 until meeting misfortune). So, a 3+ rating appears to be the best bet as the source of an outlier scorer and, as I was fortunate enough to get on various fancies at nice AP prices, it's not been uneconomic for me to add the 3 remaining runners that rate 3+ this year - Kimberlite Candy, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minella Times. Not least as KC's 3rd fail is a "Going" failure that may or may not be valid (will explain when I do his write up), Minella Times' 3rd fail appears potentially borderline (on paper 2lbs too much weight but franked form of December's PP Hdcp is suggesting that he may be fine with the extra) and Alpha Des Obeaux, I suspect, could do an Oscar Time when he came alive over the spruce on decent ground in 2013 and placed 4th despite a torrid season on soft.
So, that's the way I'm hoping to cover the bases.
Now to the important CAVEAT EMPTOR *
One must take all the back-tested stats above with a huge degree of caution. Back-testing is obviously a self-fulfilling
prophecy, since my 10 Screentests (and positive trait tests) are determined with
20:20 hindsight, based on the CVs of successful runners. Obviously, with the assistance of my then-model, I backed only a minority of these successful runners and my model did not pick out every winner - though I backed even fewer
That said, the reason that I have faith that there
may be some degree of validity to the exercise is that each of those tests in isolation appears to be "statistically meaningful". i.e. the sample of
those runners that failed each individual test is a decent size (at least 20% of all
276 runners) and their relative under-performance is significant (in terms of
contributing disproportionately few winners and, for all tests but one [the
Wild Risk test], disproportionately few of the 35 horses placed 1~5).
The acid test for using this version of the model as a betting
tool however is whether a simple aggregation of test fails is a valid means of
identifying future winners and placed horses (ignoring the inevitable role of misfortune).
One thing is certain, it will prove to be more
nuanced than that and the model will never precisely predict a GN result. It
will always be work in progress but, in my opinion, that doesn't prevent it still being
(hopefully) a useful tool in improving betting %s. It has done so for me thus far, over the span of many years, but this is a debut for an entirely new model. Fingers crossed.
Accuweather has it dry after showers on the prior Tuesday. On that basis, officially Good to Soft but in non-Aintree language (as they are reluctant these days to label any ground for the meeting without the word Soft somewhere) essentially Good https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/liverpool/l7-9/april-weather/330510?year=2021
EDIT - a mere 8 hours later and MetCheck now forecasts a largely dry week for the GN meeting but Accuweather has 5 hours and 12mm of rain hitting Liverpool on the opening Thursday.
Ok folks, As already mentioned, a significant trend in
post-2012 GNs relates to the winner's dam-sire (for those unfamiliar, that is its maternal grandfather), specifically in respect of the quality of their progeny at a distance on the flat. The damsire is always a key influence in a NH pedigree because it’s widely accepted that stamina tends to come from the mother's side of the pedigree.
Breeding patterns are always evolving of course
but, probably reflecting the greater emphasis in modern GNs (over less demanding fences) on stamina combined with a high cruising
speed, as opposed to jumping prowess, there has been a sharp rise in the
success of those runners with a damsire not of a traditional National Hunt
background but whose progeny achieved Group 1 success at a minimum of 10f but typically at 12f+.
Consider this: In the 8 GNs 2005~12, 2 of the 15 winners and near-missers (Don't Push It & Sunnyhillboy) had a dam sire that had also sired or dam-sired a Group 1 winner rated RPR120+. Don't Push It's damsire was Alleged (sire of St Leger winner Shantou and ds of Arc winner Suave Dancer) and Sunnyhillboy's was High Line (ds of Derby winner High-Rise). In the 7 GNs 2013~19, 10 of the 13 winners and near-missers (Pineau De Re, Saint Are and Rathvinden being the only exceptions) had a dam-sire whose progeny also include a G1 winner at 10f+ (RPR120+). In fact, 8 of these 10 had an even rarer commodity in NH pedigrees, both a dam-sire AND a 2nd and/or 3rd dam-sire that had done likewise.
We must not put the proverbial cart before the horse. It's important to note that inheriting "quality speed" from a dam-sire doesn't make up for a deficiency in a runner’s other stats and is only valuable for a runner whose profile is otherwise well suited to GN success. By the way, that's true also of the (unrelated) presence of Wild Risk in a runner's dam-side (which all 13 winners and near-missers since 2013 possessed). Notably, in both cases, excluding winners and <5L near-missers, neither factor appears to be strongly correlated with performance. So, perhaps we may hypothesise that the presence of one or, preferably, both on a runner's dam-side may make the crucial extra 2% difference at the business end of a GN but otherwise is irrelevant.
Looking for this extra 2%, the runners this year that have a dam-sire that has also sired or damsired a Group 1 winner at 10f+ (RPR120+) are, in weight order:
after each runner's name in brackets: 2 means 2nd dam-sire had done likewise 3 means 3rd dam-sire had done likewise + means also has Wild Risk present on the dam-side
The Storyteller Magic of Light (3 +) Pym Balko Des Flos (3) Shattered Love (+) The Jam Man (2) Cloth Cap (+) Ami Desbois (3) Gold Present (3) Keeper Hill (2 +) Some Neck (2&3)
Of these, as already noted, Magic Of Light and Cloth Cap are among my model's top 4 rated candidates on Good to Soft.
Ok folks, As already mentioned, a significant trend in
post-2012 GNs relates to the winner's dam-sire (for those unfamiliar, that is its maternal grandfather), specifically in respect of the quality of their progeny at a distance on the flat. The damsire is always a key influence in a NH pedigree because its widely accepted that stamina tends to come from the mother's side of the pedigree.
Breeding patterns are always evolving of course
but, probably reflecting the greater emphasis in modern GNs (over less demanding fences) on stamina combined with a high cruising
speed, as opposed to jumping prowess, there has been a sharp rise in the
success of those runners with a damsire not of a traditional National Hunt
background but whose progeny achieved Group 1 success at a minimum of 10f but typically at 12f+.
Consider this: In the 8 GNs 2005~12, 2 of the 15 winners and near-missers (Don't Push It & Sunnyhillboy) had a dam sire that had also sired or dam-sired a Group 1 winner rated RPR120+. Don't Push It's damsire was Alleged (sire of St Leger winner Shantou and ds of Arc winner Suave Dancer) and Sunnyhillboy's was High Line (ds of Derby winner High-Rise). In the 7 GNs 2013~19, 10 of the 13 winners and near-missers (Pineau De Re, Saint Are and Rathvinden being the only exceptions) had a dam-sire whose progeny also include a G1 winner at 10f+ (RPR120+). In fact, 8 of these 10 had an even rarer commodity in NH pedigrees, both a dam-sire AND a 2nd and/or 3rd dam-sire that had done likewise.
We must not put the proverbial cart before the horse. It's important to note that inheriting "quality speed" from a dam-sire doesn't make up for a deficiency in a runner’s other stats and is only valuable for a runner whose profile is otherwise well suited to GN success. By the way, that's true also of the (unrelated) presence of Wild Risk in a runner's dam-side (which all 13 winners and near-missers since 2013 possessed). Notably, in both cases, excluding winners and <5L near-missers, neither factor appears to be strongly correlated with performance. So, perhaps we may hypothesise that the presence of one or, preferably, both on a runner's dam-side may make the crucial extra 2% difference at the business end of a GN but otherwise is irrelevant.
Looking for this extra 2%, the runners this year that have a dam-sire that has also sired or damsired a Group 1 winner at 10f+ (RPR120+) are, in weight order:
after each runner's name in brackets: 2 means 2nd dam-sire had done likewise 3 means 3rd dam-sire had done likewise + means also has Wild Risk present on the dam-side
The Storyteller Magic of Light (3 +) Pym Balko Des Flos (3) Shattered Love (+) The Jam Man (2) Cloth Cap (+) Ami Desbois (3) Gold Present (3) Keeper Hill (2 +) Some Neck (2&3)
Of these, as already noted, Magic Of Light and Cloth Cap are among my model's top 4 rated candidates on Good to Soft.
Thought for today is: Best "deep value” each-way contenders:
Obviously a lot of runners have shortened up a
lot over the last few weeks.
What appeals as an each-way
candidate depends a little on your own views - in most races 20/1+ may be great
e/w value for the right horse. In a GN, it's surprisingly common for much
longer-priced runners to make the frame and even win. For example, each of
the 5 GNs 2012~16 saw a winner at an SP of 25~66/1.
More to the point, in 7 of the 8
GNs 2012~19, at least one horse made the first 5 home at an SP of 40~100/1 (x8
in total, including x2 at 100/1 - happy to say my then-model picked 3 of these,
including 100/1 Vic’s Canvas).
What’s more, of those 8 long-shots
to make the frame, 6 had prior experience of the GN fences and, notably, 4 of
them had run very creditably over them.
I strongly suspect that, outside of (dreaming)
connections, I'm the sole being in the entire cosmos to rate Minellacelebration (80/1) in their top 4 for the race on Good to Soft
ground.
If betting ante-post, it was also possible
to secure 40/1+ for Discorama (still a very appealing 33s but must be backed NRNB), who's also in my top 4, and for Minella Times (now 14s) who’s joint 5th top-rated.
But betting now, are there any
other interesting long shots that, on their stats, have a lively chance of
making the paying places and giving backers serious bang for their buck?
Assuming a decent surface, there
are 3 that I'd pick out at 50/1+. They're those odds for a reason but their
stat-profiles suggest that the market may have it badly wrong and that they have credible potential to outrun their odds, given the probable Good to Soft going:
Alpha Des Obeaux (50/1, with
Bet365 5 places ¼ odds) (3+ = joint 5th best on stats with Kimberlite Candy and Minella Times)
With form over the GN fences, Alpha
fits the typical profile of long shots that have made the frame in recent
GNs. One of those to do so that’s particularly relevant was Oscar Time, 4th in 2013 as a 12 yo at 66/1.
2 years earlier at 14/1 he’d been
2L 2nd to Ballabriggs and he ran in 2013 off the same OR145 but
went off totally unfancied because since his GN 2nd, including a
year off for injury, his form figures were 4(of 5) 4(of 6) U 6(of 6) 17(of 17).
However, all 5 of these runs were on Soft or Heavy and, though he’d
come close 2nd in an Irish GN on Heavy 3 years earlier, his season’s
runs bore all the hallmarks of a “been there, done it” racehorse no longer happy
on a testing surface.
Back on decent ground for the first time since his GN 2nd
and back over Aintree’s spruce, which has brought another 5lbs+ of performance
out of many a staying chaser down the years, he palpably loved the occasion and
ran a blinder before flagging after the last and finishing 20L 4th.
IMHO, 11 yo Alpha Des Obeaux looks a remarkably similar proposition.
Why?
Was going noticeably well (OR155) carrying 11.04, tracking
the leaders in the 2018 GN when falling at The Chair (15th and biggest
fence on the course).
Jumped The Chair and all the fences with aplomb
in the 2019 Becher Chase over 3.25m when lumping topweight of 11.12 (OR159) on
Soft to finish 10L 3rd (RPR161), staying on and matching pace after the
Elbow with the winner and 2nd Kimberlite Candy. On that run, he’ll
be 15lbs “well-in” with KC.
He’ll carry a very workable 10.09. Maybe
reflecting his runs over the course, his GN handicap mark of 152 looks a tad steep
against his current Irish OR145 but he started the season at OR158 and dropped
13lbs because a poor run of form: 5(of 8) 9(of 9) 5 (of 5) P P 4 (of 13)
However, most of these runs have been non-handicap
Grade 1~3 and, more significantly, most have been on Soft or Heavy. Notably, the
best 2 came on a sound surface:
9th but only 13L behind The Storyteller
at level weights in a 3m Grade 1 in October on Yielding – on that run he’ll be on
level terms with The Storyteller (now 20/1 but unproven over the fences)
A not-stopping 4th 22L behind the
superstar that is Tiger Roll at level weights in last week’s XC on GS.
Despite going well on testing going in former
years, he visibly relished the better ground and his first sight of the XC
course and (though on paper 15lbs wrong at the weights) finished only 4L behind
last year’s XC winner and specialist Easysland in 2nd. Very simply, if Tiger
Roll had missed the race and Easysland had won, much more attention would have
been given to Alpha’s proximity and IMHO he’d be a lot shorter for the GN than
50s.
That 30f XC is the furthest he’s tried but he also
ran creditably in the 2017 Irish GN at 29f, again on Gd/Y (a staying-on 8th,
having been very badly hampered at the back of the field at the 8th
fence).
I could be completely wrong but I suspect he
could well “do an Oscar Time” and, having lost his love of the game on testing
ground over conventional fences, come alive back over the Aintree spruce again and
on a decent surface.
I think he represents very attractive e/w value at 50s
Some Neck (50/1,
with Bet365) (4+ = c.12th best stat rating)
3rd in last week’s XC, this 10 yo was
until 2020 owned by the big-spending Riccis and trained by Willie Mullins (which
speaks to his perceived potential when purchased as a 3 yo) but he never really
strung any consistent form together as a hurdler or chaser, though as a lover
of better ground, perhaps he’s one that would have shown more if trained this
side of the water.
Again, there’s a reason this fellow’s 50/1 and
that’s because he has a poor jumping record over conventional
fences – even when not departing, lacking fluency and making costly mistakes.
He changed hands and yards last November and
was immediately aimed at X-Country, in which he’s found his mojo, setting a
career-best RPR150 when winning over Cheltenham’s XC course in November (staying
on powerfully to reel in the leader on the line), followed up by his fine 3rd
just 2L behind Easysland last week. Indeed, even allowing for Easysland not bringing
his A Game, he was only 20L behind the Tiger despite being 22lbs wrong at
the weights with him.
GN fences are different to both XC and
conventional fences (for example, Pineau de Re was not a great jumper of conventional
fences but survived a number of sticky moments to win the 2014 GN) and Some
Neck doesn’t get very high at the XC obstacles, so there has to be a meaningful
risk that he won’t handle them, though as we know from Magic Of Light’s (and
indeed Tiger Roll’s and Rathvinden’s) run in 2019, it is possible to survive going
through the top of GN fences (and even the middle of The Chair!), if your horse
has deft footwork.
We won’t know for sure in Some Neck’s case until
he faces them but if (and it’s a big “if”) he can happily survive the first
circuit, he’ll carry only 10.01, appears to have the stamina and ticks an
interesting box to be a serious player at the business end:
As noted in the preceding post, he’s the only
runner in the field to have a “full house” of dam-sires (1st, 2nd
and 3rd) that have also sired or dam-sired Group 1 winners on the
flat at 10f+ with RPR120+ (10 of 13 winners and near-missers since 2013 having
similar)
Sired by the exceptional stayer Yeats, who
brings Wild Risk to the pedigree.
Maybe one to watch and back “in running”
Give Me A
Copper (66/1) (2 = 9th best stat rating)
Perhaps the main reason he’s unfancied is that
he failed in his only attempt beyond 25f (29L 4th in the 29f Bet365
(aka Whitbread) 2 years ago). However, he was held up that day (usually ridden
more prominently) and got outpaced at Sandown (a very different track to the GN
course) but was staying on one-paced at the finish – the front 4 being strung
out at 10L intervals by a “thrown-in” winner. It would be wrong, IMHO, to
conclude from that run alone that he didn’t get the trip and definitely wouldn’t
get further. It’s an unknown and that’s why he’s 66/1 but there are reasons to
be positive for 10 April.
Aside from unhelpful tactics, his failure at
Sandown may also have been due to the fact that it was his 3rd run
in 84 days and, while that’s the norm for many chasers, he’s unusual in going appreciably
better (very well in fact) when “fresh”. His record when first time out after a
50+ day break is: 1111U412 but the UR was when he jinked and departed very early at
Kelso (a slightly odd track) but won next run 16 days later, and the 2nd
was a near-miss by 0.5L. He’ll be running on 10 April after a 70 day break (but within the 84 day precedent set by One For Arthur).
His pedigree strongly suggests a staying chaser:
By Presenting, also sire of GN winner Ballabriggs,
GN near-misser Pleasant Company and GN frame-makers Niche Market and Goonyella;
Scot GN winner Joe Farrell and Irish GN winners Rogue Angel and Thunder and Roses
Dam-sire Supreme Leader sired GN close 2nd
Whats Up Boys and Scot GN winner Joes Edge and dam-sired GN runner-up Oscar
Time.
Wild Risk present via both Sire and x2 on the
dam-side
Lightly raced for an 11yo (injury niggles)
with only 9 chases on the clock (13 races under rules in total) but as a 5yo was
very highly thought of (as a Gold Cup prospect) by his first trainer. His GN OR
is 147 (just 1lb higher than when close 2nd over 3m on his return in
December from wind surgery, for which he notched a career-high RPR155) and it’s just
possible that he’s a tad unexposed at a marathon trip.
Will carry just 10.04 for the big one but decent
ground (GS) is an absolute must. NRNB would
be wise if he takes your fancy and you don't mind cheering on a horse part-owned by Sir Alex Ferguson.
So, there we have it – in my view the best 3 on Good to Soft (other than Minellacelebration) at long prices but which could give backers a serious run for their e/w shilling.
Does anyone know when the betting exchanges will close their ante post markets on the Grand National? I have several bets i intended to trade out but the prices have not dropped enough yet. I don't want to carry them over to the main market as it will involve a liability of thousands of pounds.
Does anyone know when the betting exchanges will close their ante post markets on the Grand National? I have several bets i intended to trade out but the prices have not dropped enough yet. I don't want to carry them over to the main market as it will involve a liability of thousands of pounds.
This is only based on what they used to do (and things might have changed since they farmed their admin out to Romania) but it usually is an hour or so before the final declaration stage so I would guess at about 9.00am on Thursday 8th
Does anyone know when the betting exchanges will close their ante post markets on the Grand National? I have several bets i intended to trade out but the prices have not dropped enough yet. I don't want to carry them over to the main market as it will involve a liability of thousands of pounds.
This is only based on what they used to do (and things might have changed since they farmed their admin out to Romania) but it usually is an hour or so before the final declaration stage so I would guess at about 9.00am on Thursday 8th
I asked Smarkets and got a less than helpful reply. I don't know why they can't carry it over to the raceday market. I worked it out so i would have six horses running for me at no loss if they are beaten. But the prices are not as they should be at this stage, example Magic of Light is 20/1 with just about every bookie but the exchanges are offering 33/1. This is not right. 25/1 would be the maximum i would offer and i was hoping for no more than 21/1. If we don't see some movement soon i might have to wait a lot longer than i wanted. I was hoping to avoid having to deposit thousands of pounds by simply trading out in the ante post market.
Come to the conclusion that the fav is going to be bloody hard to beat. But at 4/1 or 5/1 that is the game that has to be played.
Was encouraged by signs of life in Alpha Des Obeaux in the cross country and intriguingly he was withdrawn from the sales. I hate how the handicapper has treated him mind but have bet him already!
I thought Any Second Now was fairly solid but maybe high enough and in the end come to the conclusion that Mister Malarky is too. May be ones for ew extra places but you don't know how the latter will ever show up. Liked him for ages and done my brains on him.
I agree with @PeanutsMolloy that Some Neck is interesting and definitely on my radar too. But I keep coming back to FARCLAS. As already noted he is something of a trends buster...7yo, stamina questions etc... But think the younger brigade are the ones to focus on and there are some pedigree comforts in answering the stamina question. He was unlucky to bump into The Shunter at Cheltenham but got outpaced in the sprint finish there and stumbled before weaving through everyone. He is 33s NRNB and may well not line up (in the Irish version and Topham). But an Elliott (cough) Gigg horse that is well in is no more than a 16s shot come the day imo
Does anyone know when the betting exchanges will close their ante post markets on the Grand National? I have several bets i intended to trade out but the prices have not dropped enough yet. I don't want to carry them over to the main market as it will involve a liability of thousands of pounds.
This is only based on what they used to do (and things might have changed since they farmed their admin out to Romania) but it usually is an hour or so before the final declaration stage so I would guess at about 9.00am on Thursday 8th
I asked Smarkets and got a less than helpful reply. I don't know why they can't carry it over to the raceday market. I worked it out so i would have six horses running for me at no loss if they are beaten. But the prices are not as they should be at this stage, example Magic of Light is 20/1 with just about every bookie but the exchanges are offering 33/1. This is not right. 25/1 would be the maximum i would offer and i was hoping for no more than 21/1. If we don't see some movement soon i might have to wait a lot longer than i wanted. I was hoping to avoid having to deposit thousands of pounds by simply trading out in the ante post market.
Because the two markets come under different sets of rules and also the technology needed to do so would make it very difficult.
You would have to ring fence the 40 declared runners but you couldn't leave those runners in the Ante Post market because Reduction Factor deductions would have to apply to the day of the race market. If you took the 40 out then that creates all sorts of issues for those that have traded the whole book i.e. it could affect their position to the extent that they would have a negative balance until such time as the day of the race market is settled.
@PeanutsMolloy - Secret Reprieve. Thoughts? That Welsh Nat win really was very taking in style.
Morning @PaddyP17 You'll recall that I strongly fancied Ramses De Teillee as a 7yo in 2019 and expressed the view then that a 7yo will be good enough to win the GN sometime soon. Clearly RDT wasn't but I still firmly believe that, post the course changes, the right 7 yo will score providing they are ridden to win the race rather than have a "sighter" (as I believe Cause Of Causes was given in 2015). I strongly suspect that a "sighter" is privately what this is all about for Secret Reprieve but, even if I'm wrong, he's not scoring well on my system and I doubt he's "the one". 14/1 is way too short IMHO. I
don't disagree with your view of the Welsh GN (Yala Enki is a reliable yardstick) but a 10lb higher mark for the GN is a lot. He had to go up that much to get a run (such has been the rise in typical OR of a GN that a same-season Welsh GN winner carrying c 10.00 typically doesn't make the cut at Aintree these days) but the form of the Welsh GN was somewhat let down in the Midlands National. As regards his stat-rating by my system, he's a 6++ on GS and 5++ on Soft, so quite a way down the list. Obviously, there's significant margin for error when considering the stats of 7 year olds given the sheer lack of races (6 chases and 2 hurdles in his case). I don't think the inexperience itself is a "no-no" for contending (Shutthefrontdoor had only 6 chases under his belt when 5th in 2015, though the Irish GN winner and Festival 4m near-misser patently didn't get the trip) but I can only go with my system and his Screentest fails are:
not prohibitive but a 7 yo is a minus, even if only over riding instructions
premium of only +2 (+5 minimum) for 3m+ chase RPR-high (146, notched in the Welsh GN Trial) vs GNOR (144)
no
run since Chepstow (91 days) and, while other runners have had
similar/longer breaks, some have a genuinely strong record when fresh (50+
days). He is 0 from 4 (excl. NHF - 0 from 5 if included). One For Arthur
pushed the boundary back with 84 days (otherwise a run after weights
published the norm) but at least he'd won >50% when fresh.
inadequate hurdle RPR 128, though admittedly 128 is hardly poor for only 2 runs (but 133+ needed - a surprisingly strong stat for modern-GNs unless previous form over the fences)
no Wild Risk anywhere in the pedigree (stats-wise, that doesn't preclude placing), otherwise a good stayer's pedigree: related to One Man and Bellshill; sire Flemensfirth (sired 3 GN
runner ups) and damsire Oscar (damsire of The Last Samuri)
on going, he has no form to speak of on better than Soft -
though again only 2 runs to date on Official GS though the time of the Welsh GN suggested effectively GS, so maybe a tad harsh to apply the extra going "fail"
On the plus side he notches ++:
2nd season chaser with a Class 1 29f+ win (so he does match up on that stat with 2nd season chasers who have gone well in modern-GNs, but they've all had only 0~2 stat fails)
75% win/near-miss strike rate (3 from 4) in 3m+ chases
So, he's not for me but, as I said, there has to be more doubt over a stat-score for such an inexperienced runner. I've no doubt that he has the potential for a terrific career as a staying chaser and could well join the Rucker's other GN stars (State Of Play, Cappa Bleu and Alvarado) as a multiple GN placer (maybe a winner) in years to come. It's just a year too early IMHO.
Hope these musings are of interest but, as always, please don't let me put you off - me and my model are frequently wrong, e.g. RDT .
Not trying take anything away from your excellent thread Peanuts,keep up the great work.I was talking to a well known punter and tipster the weekend and he said he can’t see past either Burrows Saint or Potters Corner for the National.Mentioned my 25/1 ante post Cloth Cap bet and he said lay it off now or certainly before the race if you want to pinch some extra pennies as he won’t win it! And added if he is allowed to dictate which I can’t see he won’t last out and if amongst the field his ability to not jump in a straight line will cause him all sorts of problems.
Not trying take anything away from your excellent thread Peanuts,keep up the great work.I was talking to a well known punter and tipster the weekend and he said he can’t see past either Burrows Saint or Potters Corner for the National.Mentioned my 25/1 ante post Cloth Cap bet and he said lay it off now or certainly before the race if you want to pinch some extra pennies as he won’t win it! And added if he is allowed to dictate which I can’t see he won’t last out and if amongst the field his ability to not jump in a straight line will cause him all sorts of problems.
Many thanks for that @killer kish Very valuable thoughts (you're certainly not taking anything away) and I've got a lot of sympathy with that view re CC. Tactically Scu's got a problem because he will be taken on and, aside from not having things his own way, if he wants to be prominent, one imagines he'll want to line up (if he can) on or near the inner - but that'll test him over the tallest part of Bechers of course. I'm not convinced that's a great idea with his jumping style. Personally I'm not so sure he'll jump to the right - he didn't obviously do so in the Hennessy and Kelso is a funky track that causes horses to go a bit skewiff sometimes - but I can see him not completing, even on his preferred ground, because sons of Beneficial just don't seem to like the mayhem of a GN. Certainly 4/1 is a nutso price and I wouldn't blame you for banking a nice profit laying him now. But, at the end of the day, I'm a stats-guy and having got him at 20s I'm going to stick with the "team" that has the closest fit (according to my model) with previous winners/near-missers and he's one of the top 4 for me on GS. But stats are very rigid things of course and can't take account of the whole picture. Very grateful for the heads up.
Still sharply conflicting weather forecasts for Liverpool for next week. A lot of rain there over the weekend just gone but very warm today thru Wed and dry for
the rest of this week.
For next week, Met/BBC shows sunny, dry weather all the way until maybe 2.4mm of rain on race day itself - watering
will keep it Officially GS. Accuweather's forecast for next week is bizarrely the reverse - moderate rainfall every day Mon~Fri next week,
totalling a not insignificant (though hardly deluge-scale) 24mm. Even so, a lot
would then depend on the weather on GN day itself (forecast dry and sunny)
because the course can dry out materially on race-day (to maybe genuine GS) but
any rain on the day following 5 days of similar would likely deliver Soft
ground.
All in all still very much odds-on for Good to Soft, of one variety or
another, but can't entirely rule out the possibility of something much softer.
However, time and tide (and more importantly betting markets) wait for no man
and here are the updated top 6/7 stat-ratings by my GN model (importantly, assuming no
weight-rise):
On GOOD TO SOFT (or Good):
Top 4:
Magic
Of Light (now
20/1, Bet365 [5 places 1/4 odds])
Discorama (33/1 NRNB)
Cloth
Cap (4/1)
Minellacelebration (80/1)
Joint Next Best
Kimberlite
Candy (12/1)
Minella
Times (14/1)
Alpha
Des Obeaux (50/1)
On SOFT (or Heavy):
Top 5:
Kimberlite
Candy
Discorama
Lord
Du Mesnil (33/1)
Yala
Enki (33/1)
Magic
Of Light
Next Best:
Acapella
Bourgeois (33/1)
And now the first of the summaries of selections, starting with arguably the best e/w value winning contender that's versatile as regards going and resilient to a rise in the weights:
DISCORAMA (8yo, 10.06, 33/1) - be warned, he's still got an entry for the Irish
GN next Monday (NRNB advised)
Very excited, if he lines up, about this Irish-trained 8 yo, in his 3rd season over fences. It's been the
expressed desire of his trainer (Paul Nolan) for a while to run him in an
Aintree GN but the opportunity to do so as 2nd season chaser was denied him last year, of course. With 3 Nationals cancelled a year ago, perhaps he and certain other 3rd season chasers remain a tad unexposed in handicap company at extended trips.
He also has an entry for Fairyhouse and might go
there if there's a concern that Aintree may be on the quick side.
Soft ground would likely best suit his chances but my reading of his CV gives
me confidence he's got the profile still to be very much in business on Good to
Soft.
Well-weighted.
A very winnable-with 10.06 on his back (OR149 vs his career-high RPR154, set when staying on up the hill in last season's Ultima chase at The Festival). On that run and the winner's (The Conditional) 3rd in last
November's Ladbroke Trophy, on 25~26f form he's 6lbs "well-in" with
hot favourite Cloth Cap. I'm not remotely persuaded that CC's subsequent win at Kelso, in a much less competitive affair, marked any meaningful progression on his Ladbroke win.
Stamina
proven.Close 2nd in the 4m Novice chase behind Le Breuil on atrocious ground
at the 2019 Festival. Whereas that race appears to have bottomed Le B,
Discorama has run well subsequently, notching a higher RPR 3 times.
Ticks the box for a season's form, near-missing (conceding weight to Milan Native) in his seasonal bow in
October. Hasn't run since disappointing in November's 3.5m chase at
Cheltenham but had a wind op since (been back in training for an while and shouldn't lack fitness).
146 days since a run is
his first "fail" of my Screentest. Since 1987 (at least) only One For Arthur (84 days) has won a GN without a run after the weights were set but 2 important points:
Discorama has an unusually strong record when
"fresh", notching 2 wins and 4 near-misses from 7 runs after
a 50+ day break and the only failure being a fall at the last in a novice
chase when upsides and having every chance of scoring (his only failure to complete in
18 races under rules)
a prolonged break prior to a GN does not preclude
placing and even near-missing in a GN - Mely Moss hadn't run for 345 days
before a 1L defeat to Papillon in 2000; Clan Royal for 132 days before
very unfortunately (jockey dropped whip) being reeled in at the line by
Amberleigh House in 2004; and State Of Play made the frame 3 times 2008~10
after 99, 133 and 364 day breaks.
Pedigree is interesting. Sire Saddler Maker tends to impart resolve to his progeny but there's no
Wild Risk is Disco's ancestry (2nd fail) or Group 1 producing dam-sire. However, he does have
an interesting and unusual element that might substitute for it (if
interested, see below *)
Meaningful
cut would probably suit best but he travels fine on better ground (ran
respectably on quick ground in a competitive Grade 1 over 2.5m as a 5 yo
behind Delta Work)
Runs particularly well in the spring (83% making-the-frame in 6 runs March & April compared to 42% at all other times)
Yard in good form with a winner at The Festival.
IMHO, Discorama still represents outstanding e/w value at 33/1 NRNB.
* Discorama has an interesting and unusual aspect to his pedigree, with 3
different potential sources of the "big heart" gene.
As explained in a previous post, racehorses with exceptional endurance have often been
found in post-mortem to have had an enlarged heart (sometimes significantly), which can greatly enhance oxygen absorption and, thus, physical endurance.
It's believed that there exists a
"big heart" gene conveyed to progeny of those with this
characteristic via the X chromosome. An X chromosome can only be conveyed to a male by their dam (a sire conveys a Y
chromosome to a son). So, a champion sire with a big heart in the ancestry conveys
its X chromosome only to daughters, so the gene can be passed down from it via
females alone or in a zig-zag from female to male to female etc .............
still awake?
In Discorama's case, he has 3 separate zig-zag patterns connecting him via his
dam and his 2nd and 3rd dams to exceptional Champions of the flat and/or sires, each of whose progeny include multiple 12f+ Group 1 winners.
Mill Reef (whose dam-sire Princequillo was found to
transmit the largest heart of all - to Secretariat, for example)
Tanerko (son of dual Arc winner Tantieme, with genetic attributes similar to Wild Risk)
Northern Dancer, hugely influential in many NH pedigrees and offering powerful synergies in combination with the Wild Risk (or similar) genotype.
3 different zig-zag lines potentially conveying such
potent "big heart" genes via the damline is unusual. It doesn't necessarily make Discorama a superstar (it clearly hasn't) but it
may mean that the 8 year old has the capacity to be hitting the line strongly
at the end of a 34.5f Grand National.
Which one do you think Discorama will go for Peanuts? I'm fairly confident he will go to Aintree.
Nolan would prefer
Aintree I'm sure but I am a tad worried about the forecast.
He's been very explicit in the past about needing soft enough
ground for him (I interpret that not as ruling out GS but at least being assured of genuine cut). I've no idea how much faith he'll place in Aintree to water to keep it proper GS if the forecast is dry (they've not always succeeded and it's ridden quickish in some years, and the late Off time isn't helpful).
He might just want to weigh up whether Fairyhouse is the safer bet for Disco. He does have Latest Exhibition lined up for the Irish GN of course but that might depend on Tiger running and keeping the weights down.
Would be a huge shame if Disco doesn't run at
Liverpool. Fingers crossed.
Alongside Discorama, the next selection whose winning calibre stat-rating is versatile as to going (though she wouldn't want a material rise in weights) is:
Magic Of Light (10yo, 10.13, 20/1)
She's a known-quantity, having gone so close
in 2019, but her pedigree’s worth highlighting, as it confirms why (subject to
other key variables) she's tailormade for a modern-GN and was beaten last time only
by a superstar:
Sire Flemensfirth (also sired fellow GN runners-up King Johns Castle and The Last
Samuri)
Dam-sire
is Arc winner Saumarez, also dam-sire of Derby winner Authorised (sire of
Tiger Roll). MOL's 3rd damsire also dam-sired a G1 winner at 12f (RPR129). As noted in an earlier post, only 6 other likely runners offer multiple dam-sires that have also dam-sired quality G1 winners at 10f+, yet 5 of 7 GN winners since 2013 have had this trait in their pedigree.
Wild
Risk present via Rainbow Quest - a particularly noteworthy conveyor of the
Wild Risk genotype.
Two key variables – weight and form. Can she do it again or go one better this time?
GN handicap mark and weight are winnable with - allotted OR156 (+5lbs on the 2019 GNOR but still 6lbs lower than the RPR162 she notched when close runner up to Tiger). If the weights
don’t rise, she’ll carry a manageable 10.13 (10.11 in 2019) but her
win chance, certainly on more testing ground, would suffer if weights rose >2lbs (thought unlikely).
Form this term has been decent, notching a hat-trick of wins in the same 3m
Mares chase at Newbury in December, but hasn't hit the same heights she
had prior to the 2019 GN. Last run, was outpaced but stayed on in the
Mares chase at the Festival, over an inadequate 20f on the ground (GS). Trainer reported to be very happy with the run as a prep for Aintree and for MOL to be "in rude health" afterwards. Nonetheless, season's form, while not discouraging, is her 1 Stat "Fail" on my system.
Should be noted that quieter seasons for
returning GN winners/near-missers aren't uncommon. Slim Pickings (3rd and 4th with OR+7lbs), Comply Or Die (won and 2nd with OR+15), Don't Push It (won and 3rd with OR+7) returned after very quiet campaigns to still contend strongly with still higher marks. It’s true that these all found 1 or 2 or 3 rivals too good for them but, if you have a runner who’s been there and done it and arrives in good nick, reasonably-weighted and (crucially) still ticking the right boxes, you’ve got a great chance of contending. Beyond that, anything can happen in a GN.
3 runs in the season, including a win in a Class 1 or Listed Chase, the last 22 days prior and not too hard a race, in the sweet zone.
Handles any ground but, for the GN fences and trip, probably her best
chance comes on Good to Soft, as it was in 2019.
She would be the first mare to win since Nickel Coin 70 years ago but mares have had very limited representation in GNs in recent years and, if anything in fact have punched above their weight in terms of making the frame - too small a sample to be meaningful however.
The mares starred at Cheltenham, why not in the most famous chase of them all?
Aintree’s Clerk of the Course says they’ll “probably be irrigating by the middle of this week just to keep things on the right side. We'll keep an eye on things with a view to next week when we have the usual aim of starting the meeting on good to soft."
Be warned, weather forecasts are becoming more changeable for Liverpool next week. Accuweather now forecasting 8.2mm during the day on GN Saturday itself, loads of cloud cover and some rainfall every day Sun through Thursday (totalling c 25mm) beforehand. Could go either way.
Seems that Santini won't run in the GN, leaving only Bristol De Mai on topweight. He's an intended runner but if he were to come out before declarations tomorrow week, the weights would rise at least 2lbs.
Discorama has caught a tailwind in the market over the last 48 hours and is now into top price 25s NRNB but is as short as 16s with PP. My long-shot but serious fancy, Minellacelebration, has cropped up in more than one list of fancied outsiders from pundits in the last few days and, if you're not already on but want to have him on your team, the 80s from Bet365 may or may not last. More anon.
He is a horse that's ridden held up and that does require some fortune in avoiding others' misfortune but the GN can be won from off the pace (e.g. most recently One For Arthur).
And it wouldn't put Ruby Walsh off riding him: ""If I was sitting down right now as a jockey and waiting for the phone to ring, I'd be delighted if Jonjo or my dad rang, or Willie Mullins for Burrows Saint or Paul Nolan for Discorama – I most certainly wouldn't say no."
Comments
Sorry to be so slow getting back - been a bit tied up today.
You're spot on as ever and the short answer to your question is yes.
To explain why, let's summarise the back-tested results of the model (please note an obvious but important CAVEAT EMPTOR about back-testing below *).
In the 7 GNs from 2013:
- all 7 winners and 5 of the 6 finishing <5L of them had 0~1 fails of the 10 Screentests. All 13 had at least 1 positive trait (as described in a recent post)
- 31 of the 35 finishing 1st~5th had 0~2 fails. 29 of those 31 had at least 1 positive trait, importantly including all of those with 2 fails.
So, while 0~1 fails looks ideal, let's define a "Target Rating" as 0 or 1 fail or 2 fails with at least 1 positive trait (+).Each of those 7 GNs had at least 3 runners with 0 or 1 test fails or, more broadly, 5~7 runners with a Target Rating 0~2+ (40 in total = 14.5% of total runners).
Of those 40, other than the 31 that finished 1~5th, another 3 finished 6th. Of the remaining 6, 3 fell (incl The Druids Nephew in 2015), 1 was 8th as a 7yo (Cause Of Causes) and 1 didn't handle the going (Saint Are 2016).
So, 77.5% (31 of 40) of those with a Backable Rating finished in the frame and most of the rest ran creditably. Looks great doesn't it but, again, this is a model constructed with the benefit of 20:20 hindsight - please see CAVEAT EMPTOR below *.
To answer your question, assuming we're on Good to Soft, this year we have only 4 runners with a Target Rating and only 1 runner with the "ideal" 0~1 test fail. None with 0 fails, though that was true in 2 of the 7 previous years.
Even if the model has some degree of validity, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune common to any GN, there is clearly a greater chance of an outlier winner.
So, what to do?
Outside the Target Rating range, the dispersion of performance appears generally to be more random but the presence of at least 1 positive trait (+) appears to retain significance, as one might expect.
For example, 11 runners 2013~19 had 2 fails but no positive trait - none made the frame.
But, of the 4 "outliers" to make the frame, all had at least 1 positive trait.
An interesting year to consider is one of those years without a perfect (0 fail) runner, 2015, which also had the joint fewest 5 runners with a Target Rating (and was run on GS). These 5 were:
- The Druids Nephew 1++ (fell 6 out when leading)
- Cause Of Causes 1++ (8th as a 7yo, ridden conservatively)
- Many Clouds 1+ (won)
- Monbeg Dude 1+ (3rd)
- Saint Are 2++ (2nd)
But also that year:- 4th was Alvarado (rating 3+)
- 5th was Shutthefrontdoor (4+ [4th fail borderline])
- 6th was Royale Knight (3+)
- Portrait King (the only other 3+ in the race) fell 3 out when with the leaders though getting outpaced
In fact, there were 12 runners 2013~19 with a 3+ rating and, aside from the 3 above, another 3 ran creditably as far as they got (Long Run 2nd when falling at the 9th, Pleasant Company going well in 2017 and 2019 until meeting misfortune).So, a 3+ rating appears to be the best bet as the source of an outlier scorer and, as I was fortunate enough to get on various fancies at nice AP prices, it's not been uneconomic for me to add the 3 remaining runners that rate 3+ this year - Kimberlite Candy, Alpha Des Obeaux and Minella Times. Not least as KC's 3rd fail is a "Going" failure that may or may not be valid (will explain when I do his write up), Minella Times' 3rd fail appears potentially borderline (on paper 2lbs too much weight but franked form of December's PP Hdcp is suggesting that he may be fine with the extra) and Alpha Des Obeaux, I suspect, could do an Oscar Time when he came alive over the spruce on decent ground in 2013 and placed 4th despite a torrid season on soft.
So, that's the way I'm hoping to cover the bases.
Now to the important CAVEAT EMPTOR *
One must take all the back-tested stats above with a huge degree of caution.
Back-testing is obviously a self-fulfilling prophecy, since my 10 Screentests (and positive trait tests) are determined with 20:20 hindsight, based on the CVs of successful runners.
Obviously, with the assistance of my then-model, I backed only a minority of these successful runners and my model did not pick out every winner - though I backed even fewer
That said, the reason that I have faith that there may be some degree of validity to the exercise is that each of those tests in isolation appears to be "statistically meaningful".
i.e. the sample of those runners that failed each individual test is a decent size (at least 20% of all 276 runners) and their relative under-performance is significant (in terms of contributing disproportionately few winners and, for all tests but one [the Wild Risk test], disproportionately few of the 35 horses placed 1~5).
The acid test for using this version of the model as a betting tool however is whether a simple aggregation of test fails is a valid means of identifying future winners and placed horses (ignoring the inevitable role of misfortune).
One thing is certain, it will prove to be more nuanced than that and the model will never precisely predict a GN result. It will always be work in progress but, in my opinion, that doesn't prevent it still being (hopefully) a useful tool in improving betting %s.
It has done so for me thus far, over the span of many years, but this is a debut for an entirely new model.
Fingers crossed.
Metcheck has heavy rain (11mm) forecast for the day before the GN meeting starts and showers (2mm) on GN day itself.
On that basis, maybe genuine GS (Soft places?) for the race?
https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/180days.asp?zipcode=Liverpool&locationID=57220&lat=53.4&lon=-3&Event=The+Grand+National&EventDate=10/4/2021&MonthOf=4
Accuweather has it dry after showers on the prior Tuesday.
On that basis, officially Good to Soft but in non-Aintree language (as they are reluctant these days to label any ground for the meeting without the word Soft somewhere) essentially Good
https://www.accuweather.com/en/gb/liverpool/l7-9/april-weather/330510?year=2021
EDIT - a mere 8 hours later and MetCheck now forecasts a largely dry week for the GN meeting but Accuweather has 5 hours and 12mm of rain hitting Liverpool on the opening Thursday.
Ok folks,
As already mentioned, a significant trend in post-2012 GNs relates to the winner's dam-sire (for those unfamiliar, that is its maternal grandfather), specifically in respect of the quality of their progeny at a distance on the flat. The damsire is always a key influence in a NH pedigree because it’s widely accepted that stamina tends to come from the mother's side of the pedigree.
Breeding patterns are always evolving of course but, probably reflecting the greater emphasis in modern GNs (over less demanding fences) on stamina combined with a high cruising speed, as opposed to jumping prowess, there has been a sharp rise in the success of those runners with a damsire not of a traditional National Hunt background but whose progeny achieved Group 1 success at a minimum of 10f but typically at 12f+.
Consider this:
In the 8 GNs 2005~12, 2 of the 15 winners and near-missers (Don't Push It & Sunnyhillboy) had a dam sire that had also sired or dam-sired a Group 1 winner rated RPR120+. Don't Push It's damsire was Alleged (sire of St Leger winner Shantou and ds of Arc winner Suave Dancer) and Sunnyhillboy's was High Line (ds of Derby winner High-Rise).
In the 7 GNs 2013~19, 10 of the 13 winners and near-missers (Pineau De Re, Saint Are and Rathvinden being the only exceptions) had a dam-sire whose progeny also include a G1 winner at 10f+ (RPR120+).
In fact, 8 of these 10 had an even rarer commodity in NH pedigrees, both a dam-sire AND a 2nd and/or 3rd dam-sire that had done likewise.
We must not put the proverbial cart before the horse. It's important to note that inheriting "quality speed" from a dam-sire doesn't make up for a deficiency in a runner’s other stats and is only valuable for a runner whose profile is otherwise well suited to GN success.
By the way, that's true also of the (unrelated) presence of Wild Risk in a runner's dam-side (which all 13 winners and near-missers since 2013 possessed).
Notably, in both cases, excluding winners and <5L near-missers, neither factor appears to be strongly correlated with performance.
So, perhaps we may hypothesise that the presence of one or, preferably, both on a runner's dam-side may make the crucial extra 2% difference at the business end of a GN but otherwise is irrelevant.
Looking for this extra 2%, the runners this year that have a dam-sire that has also sired or damsired a Group 1 winner at 10f+ (RPR120+) are, in weight order:
after each runner's name in brackets:
2 means 2nd dam-sire had done likewise
3 means 3rd dam-sire had done likewise
+ means also has Wild Risk present on the dam-side
The Storyteller
Magic of Light (3 +)
Pym
Balko Des Flos (3)
Shattered Love (+)
The Jam Man (2)
Cloth Cap (+)
Ami Desbois (3)
Gold Present (3)
Keeper Hill (2 +)
Some Neck (2&3)
Of these, as already noted, Magic Of Light and Cloth Cap are among my model's top 4 rated candidates on Good to Soft.
Thought for today is: Best "deep value” each-way contenders:
Obviously a lot of runners have shortened up a lot over the last few weeks.
What appeals as an each-way candidate depends a little on your own views - in most races 20/1+ may be great e/w value for the right horse. In a GN, it's surprisingly common for much longer-priced runners to make the frame and even win. For example, each of the 5 GNs 2012~16 saw a winner at an SP of 25~66/1.
More to the point, in 7 of the 8 GNs 2012~19, at least one horse made the first 5 home at an SP of 40~100/1 (x8 in total, including x2 at 100/1 - happy to say my then-model picked 3 of these, including 100/1 Vic’s Canvas).
What’s more, of those 8 long-shots to make the frame, 6 had prior experience of the GN fences and, notably, 4 of them had run very creditably over them.
I strongly suspect that, outside of (dreaming) connections, I'm the sole being in the entire cosmos to rate Minellacelebration (80/1) in their top 4 for the race on Good to Soft ground.
If betting ante-post, it was also possible to secure 40/1+ for Discorama (still a very appealing 33s but must be backed NRNB), who's also in my top 4, and for Minella Times (now 14s) who’s joint 5th top-rated.
But betting now, are there any other interesting long shots that, on their stats, have a lively chance of making the paying places and giving backers serious bang for their buck?
Assuming a decent surface, there are 3 that I'd pick out at 50/1+. They're those odds for a reason but their stat-profiles suggest that the market may have it badly wrong and that they have credible potential to outrun their odds, given the probable Good to Soft going:
Alpha Des Obeaux (50/1, with Bet365 5 places ¼ odds) (3+ = joint 5th best on stats with Kimberlite Candy and Minella Times)
With form over the GN fences, Alpha fits the typical profile of long shots that have made the frame in recent GNs. One of those to do so that’s particularly relevant was Oscar Time, 4th in 2013 as a 12 yo at 66/1.
2 years earlier at 14/1 he’d been 2L 2nd to Ballabriggs and he ran in 2013 off the same OR145 but went off totally unfancied because since his GN 2nd, including a year off for injury, his form figures were 4(of 5) 4(of 6) U 6(of 6) 17(of 17).
However, all 5 of these runs were on Soft or Heavy and, though he’d come close 2nd in an Irish GN on Heavy 3 years earlier, his season’s runs bore all the hallmarks of a “been there, done it” racehorse no longer happy on a testing surface.
Back on decent ground for the first time since his GN 2nd and back over Aintree’s spruce, which has brought another 5lbs+ of performance out of many a staying chaser down the years, he palpably loved the occasion and ran a blinder before flagging after the last and finishing 20L 4th.
IMHO, 11 yo Alpha Des Obeaux looks a remarkably similar proposition. Why?
I could be completely wrong but I suspect he could well “do an Oscar Time” and, having lost his love of the game on testing ground over conventional fences, come alive back over the Aintree spruce again and on a decent surface.
I think he represents very attractive e/w value at 50s
Some Neck (50/1, with Bet365) (4+ = c.12th best stat rating)
Give Me A Copper (66/1) (2 = 9th best stat rating)
So, there we have it – in my view the best 3 on Good to Soft (other than Minellacelebration) at long prices but which could give backers a serious run for their e/w shilling.
More anon.Was encouraged by signs of life in Alpha Des Obeaux in the cross country and intriguingly he was withdrawn from the sales. I hate how the handicapper has treated him mind but have bet him already!
I thought Any Second Now was fairly solid but maybe high enough and in the end come to the conclusion that Mister Malarky is too. May be ones for ew extra places but you don't know how the latter will ever show up. Liked him for ages and done my brains on him.
I agree with @PeanutsMolloy that Some Neck is interesting and definitely on my radar too. But I keep coming back to FARCLAS. As already noted he is something of a trends buster...7yo, stamina questions etc... But think the younger brigade are the ones to focus on and there are some pedigree comforts in answering the stamina question. He was unlucky to bump into The Shunter at Cheltenham but got outpaced in the sprint finish there and stumbled before weaving through everyone. He is 33s NRNB and may well not line up (in the Irish version and Topham). But an Elliott (cough) Gigg horse that is well in is no more than a 16s shot come the day imo
You would have to ring fence the 40 declared runners but you couldn't leave those runners in the Ante Post market because Reduction Factor deductions would have to apply to the day of the race market. If you took the 40 out then that creates all sorts of issues for those that have traded the whole book i.e. it could affect their position to the extent that they would have a negative balance until such time as the day of the race market is settled.
You'll recall that I strongly fancied Ramses De Teillee as a 7yo in 2019 and expressed the view then that a 7yo will be good enough to win the GN sometime soon. Clearly RDT wasn't but I still firmly believe that, post the course changes, the right 7 yo will score providing they are ridden to win the race rather than have a "sighter" (as I believe Cause Of Causes was given in 2015).
I strongly suspect that a "sighter" is privately what this is all about for Secret Reprieve but, even if I'm wrong, he's not scoring well on my system and I doubt he's "the one". 14/1 is way too short IMHO.
I don't disagree with your view of the Welsh GN (Yala Enki is a reliable yardstick) but a 10lb higher mark for the GN is a lot. He had to go up that much to get a run (such has been the rise in typical OR of a GN that a same-season Welsh GN winner carrying c 10.00 typically doesn't make the cut at Aintree these days) but the form of the Welsh GN was somewhat let down in the Midlands National.
As regards his stat-rating by my system, he's a 6++ on GS and 5++ on Soft, so quite a way down the list.
Obviously, there's significant margin for error when considering the stats of 7 year olds given the sheer lack of races (6 chases and 2 hurdles in his case). I don't think the inexperience itself is a "no-no" for contending (Shutthefrontdoor had only 6 chases under his belt when 5th in 2015, though the Irish GN winner and Festival 4m near-misser patently didn't get the trip) but I can only go with my system and his Screentest fails are:
- not prohibitive but a 7 yo is a minus, even if only over riding instructions
- premium of only +2 (+5 minimum) for 3m+ chase RPR-high (146, notched in the Welsh GN Trial) vs GNOR (144)
- no
run since Chepstow (91 days) and, while other runners have had
similar/longer breaks, some have a genuinely strong record when fresh (50+
days). He is 0 from 4 (excl. NHF - 0 from 5 if included). One For Arthur
pushed the boundary back with 84 days (otherwise a run after weights
published the norm) but at least he'd won >50% when fresh.
- inadequate hurdle RPR 128, though admittedly 128 is hardly poor for only 2 runs (but 133+ needed - a surprisingly strong stat for modern-GNs unless previous form over the fences)
- no Wild Risk anywhere in the pedigree (stats-wise, that doesn't preclude placing), otherwise a good stayer's pedigree: related to One Man and Bellshill; sire Flemensfirth (sired 3 GN
runner ups) and damsire Oscar (damsire of The Last Samuri)
- on going, he has no form to speak of on better than Soft -
though again only 2 runs to date on Official GS though the time of the Welsh GN suggested effectively GS, so maybe a tad harsh to apply the extra going "fail"
On the plus side he notches ++:- 2nd season chaser with a Class 1 29f+ win (so he does match up on that stat with 2nd season chasers who have gone well in modern-GNs, but they've all had only 0~2 stat fails)
- 75% win/near-miss strike rate (3 from 4) in 3m+ chases
So, he's not for me but, as I said, there has to be more doubt over a stat-score for such an inexperienced runner. I've no doubt that he has the potential for a terrific career as a staying chaser and could well join the Rucker's other GN stars (State Of Play, Cappa Bleu and Alvarado) as a multiple GN placer (maybe a winner) in years to come. It's just a year too early IMHO.Hope these musings are of interest but, as always, please don't let me put you off - me and my model are frequently wrong, e.g.
You've probably seen this already @801912601 but O'Leary's confirmed that Fairyhouse is the target for Fred.
Personally I'm not so sure he'll jump to the right - he didn't obviously do so in the Hennessy and Kelso is a funky track that causes horses to go a bit skewiff sometimes - but I can see him not completing, even on his preferred ground, because sons of Beneficial just don't seem to like the mayhem of a GN.
Certainly 4/1 is a nutso price and I wouldn't blame you for banking a nice profit laying him now. But, at the end of the day, I'm a stats-guy and having got him at 20s I'm going to stick with the "team" that has the closest fit (according to my model) with previous winners/near-missers and he's one of the top 4 for me on GS. But stats are very rigid things of course and can't take account of the whole picture.
Very grateful for the heads up.
Still sharply conflicting weather forecasts for Liverpool for next week. A lot of rain there over the weekend just gone but very warm today thru Wed and dry for the rest of this week.
For next week, Met/BBC shows sunny, dry weather all the way until maybe 2.4mm of rain on race day itself - watering will keep it Officially GS.
Accuweather's forecast for next week is bizarrely the reverse - moderate rainfall every day Mon~Fri next week, totalling a not insignificant (though hardly deluge-scale) 24mm. Even so, a lot would then depend on the weather on GN day itself (forecast dry and sunny) because the course can dry out materially on race-day (to maybe genuine GS) but any rain on the day following 5 days of similar would likely deliver Soft ground.
All in all still very much odds-on for Good to Soft, of one variety or another, but can't entirely rule out the possibility of something much softer.
However, time and tide (and more importantly betting markets) wait for no man and here are the updated top 6/7 stat-ratings by my GN model (importantly, assuming no weight-rise):
On GOOD TO SOFT (or Good):
Top 4:
Joint Next Best
On SOFT (or Heavy):
Top 5:
Next Best:
And now the first of the summaries of selections, starting with arguably the best e/w value winning contender that's versatile as regards going and resilient to a rise in the weights:
DISCORAMA (8yo, 10.06, 33/1) - be warned, he's still got an entry for the Irish GN next Monday (NRNB advised)
Very excited, if he lines up, about this Irish-trained 8 yo, in his 3rd season over fences. It's been the expressed desire of his trainer (Paul Nolan) for a while to run him in an Aintree GN but the opportunity to do so as 2nd season chaser was denied him last year, of course. With 3 Nationals cancelled a year ago, perhaps he and certain other 3rd season chasers remain a tad unexposed in handicap company at extended trips.
He also has an entry for Fairyhouse and might go there if there's a concern that Aintree may be on the quick side. Soft ground would likely best suit his chances but my reading of his CV gives me confidence he's got the profile still to be very much in business on Good to Soft.
IMHO, Discorama still represents outstanding e/w value at 33/1 NRNB.
* Discorama has an interesting and unusual aspect to his pedigree, with 3 different potential sources of the "big heart" gene.
As explained in a previous post, racehorses with exceptional endurance have often been found in post-mortem to have had an enlarged heart (sometimes significantly), which can greatly enhance oxygen absorption and, thus, physical endurance.
It's believed that there exists a "big heart" gene conveyed to progeny of those with this characteristic via the X chromosome. An X chromosome can only be conveyed to a male by their dam (a sire conveys a Y chromosome to a son). So, a champion sire with a big heart in the ancestry conveys its X chromosome only to daughters, so the gene can be passed down from it via females alone or in a zig-zag from female to male to female etc ............. still awake?
In Discorama's case, he has 3 separate zig-zag patterns connecting him via his dam and his 2nd and 3rd dams to exceptional Champions of the flat and/or sires, each of whose progeny include multiple 12f+ Group 1 winners.
- Mill Reef (whose dam-sire Princequillo was found to
transmit the largest heart of all - to Secretariat, for example)
- Tanerko (son of dual Arc winner Tantieme, with genetic attributes similar to Wild Risk)
- Northern Dancer, hugely influential in many NH pedigrees and offering powerful synergies in combination with the Wild Risk (or similar) genotype.
3 different zig-zag lines potentially conveying such potent "big heart" genes via the damline is unusual. It doesn't necessarily make Discorama a superstar (it clearly hasn't) but it may mean that the 8 year old has the capacity to be hitting the line strongly at the end of a 34.5f Grand National.Fingers crossed.
More anon.
You're too kind Bob. Cheers
He'll probably fall at the 1st
Nolan would prefer Aintree I'm sure but I am a tad worried about the forecast.
He's been very explicit in the past about needing soft enough ground for him (I interpret that not as ruling out GS but at least being assured of genuine cut). I've no idea how much faith he'll place in Aintree to water to keep it proper GS if the forecast is dry (they've not always succeeded and it's ridden quickish in some years, and the late Off time isn't helpful).
He might just want to weigh up whether Fairyhouse is the safer bet for Disco. He does have Latest Exhibition lined up for the Irish GN of course but that might depend on Tiger running and keeping the weights down.
Would be a huge shame if Disco doesn't run at Liverpool. Fingers crossed.
Magic Of Light (10yo, 10.13, 20/1)
She's a known-quantity, having gone so close in 2019, but her pedigree’s worth highlighting, as it confirms why (subject to other key variables) she's tailormade for a modern-GN and was beaten last time only by a superstar:
Two key variables – weight and form. Can she do it again or go one better this time?
- GN handicap mark and weight are winnable with - allotted OR156 (+5lbs on the 2019 GNOR but still 6lbs lower than the RPR162 she notched when close runner up to Tiger). If the weights
don’t rise, she’ll carry a manageable 10.13 (10.11 in 2019) but her
win chance, certainly on more testing ground, would suffer if weights rose >2lbs (thought unlikely).
- Form this term has been decent, notching a hat-trick of wins in the same 3m
Mares chase at Newbury in December, but hasn't hit the same heights she
had prior to the 2019 GN. Last run, was outpaced but stayed on in the
Mares chase at the Festival, over an inadequate 20f on the ground (GS). Trainer reported to be very happy with the run as a prep for Aintree and for MOL to be "in rude health" afterwards. Nonetheless, season's form, while not discouraging, is her 1 Stat "Fail" on my system.
- Should be noted that quieter seasons for
returning GN winners/near-missers aren't uncommon. Slim Pickings (3rd and 4th with OR+7lbs), Comply Or Die (won and 2nd with OR+15), Don't Push It (won and 3rd with OR+7) returned after very quiet campaigns to still contend strongly with still higher marks. It’s true that these all found 1 or 2 or 3 rivals too good for them but, if you have a runner who’s been there and done it and arrives in good nick, reasonably-weighted and (crucially) still ticking the right boxes, you’ve got a great chance of contending. Beyond that, anything can happen in a GN.
- 3 runs in the season, including a win in a Class 1 or Listed Chase, the last 22 days prior and not too hard a race, in the sweet zone.
- Handles any ground but, for the GN fences and trip, probably her best
chance comes on Good to Soft, as it was in 2019.
- She would be the first mare to win since Nickel Coin 70 years ago but mares have had very limited representation in GNs in recent years and, if anything in fact have punched above their weight in terms of making the frame - too small a sample to be meaningful however.
The mares starred at Cheltenham, why not in the most famous chase of them all?Accuweather now forecasting 8.2mm during the day on GN Saturday itself, loads of cloud cover and some rainfall every day Sun through Thursday (totalling c 25mm) beforehand.
Could go either way.
He's an intended runner but if he were to come out before declarations tomorrow week, the weights would rise at least 2lbs.
My long-shot but serious fancy, Minellacelebration, has cropped up in more than one list of fancied outsiders from pundits in the last few days and, if you're not already on but want to have him on your team, the 80s from Bet365 may or may not last.
More anon.
https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/discorama-out-to-realise-nolans-dream/190588
He is a horse that's ridden held up and that does require some fortune in avoiding others' misfortune but the GN can be won from off the pace (e.g. most recently One For Arthur).
And it wouldn't put Ruby Walsh off riding him: ""If I was sitting down right now as a jockey and waiting for the phone to ring, I'd be delighted if Jonjo or my dad rang, or Willie Mullins for Burrows Saint or Paul Nolan for Discorama – I most certainly wouldn't say no."