Receding threat of meaningful rainfall next week and a sunny
race day now forecast; official “Good to Soft” looking nailed on for the GN and,
given the later Off time these days, it may once again ride as effectively GS/Good.
Covering the variety of GS (quicker or softer) and based on
final stats as they now stand, the top-rated candidates are:
Top-rated (1~2+):
·
Magic Of Light
·
Discorama (the more juice in the ground the
better)
·
Cloth Cap (the quicker the ground the
better)
Next best (3+):
·
Minellacelebration (recent downgrade to his RPR-high
relegates him from winning-calibre)
·
Kimberlite Candy (more juice the better)
·
Minella Times
·
Alpha Des Obeaux
Most Potential to Gate-Crash:
· Acapella Bourgeois
· Give Me A Copper
· If he’s in touch after The Chair (15th), Some Neck will be a big danger
With only 3 winning-calibre contenders (there have been 5~7 each time when back-testing the 2013~19 GNs), if fortune looks kindly on them, there's every chance of one of the 3+ brigade scoring.
I’ve set out the CV summaries for MOL, Disco and Alpha Des
Obeaux recently. Here are the others:
CLOTH CAP (9 yo, 10.05, 4/1 fav)
Little of this will be new but:
·
Just 10.05 to carry, his GNOR of 148 is 14lbs
“well-in” relative to his new handicap mark, having won at Kelso after the GN
weights were set. Would have 11.05 if the weights were set now.
·
Accorded an RPR165 for that Kelso win, he has
the highest premium (17lbs) of season-high 3m+ chase RPR to GNOR of any GN
runner since (at least) 2013
·
Stamina proven when a staying-on close 3rd (4L)
in the 2019 Scottish GN
·
Proven in a large field both at Ayr (23) and
when romping home with first-time cheek pieces (making all and hitting the line
strongly) in last November’s Ladbroke Trophy (18) at Newbury (had a 10lb lower
OR than any Hennessy winner for 15 years).
·
Healthy 56% strike rate at 3m+ over fences (5
wins or near-misses from 9), making the frame in all 5 on Gd or GS (won 3)
·
Dam-side pedigree is a strong +. From the family
of GN winner Amberleigh House and GN 4th Niche Market, his dam-sire
is Old Vic (sired GN winners Don’t Push It and Comply Or Die and damsire of
Scottish GN winner Joe Farrell and a G1 winner at 12f) who also brings Wild
Risk to the party.
·
3 runs in the season (2 wins), the last 35 days
prior is on the money for GN success
·
All in all a very worthy favourite but in the
context of being 4/1 ……..
....
some words of caution:
·
He doesn’t have a flawless stat-profile - one of
his 2 stat fails is a poor hurdles RPR123 from 6 runs (133+ is a surprisingly
strong stat post-2012 for those with no course form)
·
He might still place but is vulnerable if rain
does come and the ground rides appreciably softer than GS. His 4 chases at 3m+
on official Soft have yielded a best RPR142 (23lbs below that on GS)
·
Race tactics. He made every yard in the Ladbroke
and at Kelso under Tom Scu and we can expect him to be ridden prominently again
(not least for CC to have a clear sight of the fences) but also to line up (if
possible) hard on the inner. Notably in the Scottish GN (first time beyond
25f), he didn’t front-run but still raced handy, on the rail. In fact, in all 3
of his big field chases, he’s raced (under different pilots) hard on the inner and
avoided traffic. Two possible problems:
(a)
If he gets his way and the inside pozzy, he’ll
be facing Bechers (6th) at or near the point of its steepest drop
(an extra 5” on the inner and 10” lower than take-off). He may take it with
aplomb but it might find him out, as it has others.
(b)
If he doesn’t, unless he holds front-rank (and
there will be competition), there’s a greater chance of CC being exposed to the
mayhem of a typical GN. He may cope fine but sons of Beneficial, even with
excellent staying credentials, have a poor record in GNs (5 having run 7 times
in total, twice as 16/1 shots: x2 F, x3 PU and a best-placed 11th
33L).
·
Finally, he is indeed on paper very “well-in” at the
weights and has the highest premium of 3m+ RPR to GNOR (17lbs) since at least the course changes. But the next highest included:
15 - Definitly Red (2017), SP 10/1 (PU after 7 -
badly hampered)
13 - Soll (2015), 9/1 (9th - bled)
12 - The Druids Nephew (2015), 10/1 (fell 5 out
when leading)
12 - Holywell (2016), 11/1 (fell 2nd)
12 - Vicente (2017), 16/1 (fell 1st)
12 - Tiger Roll (2019), 4/1 (nuff said)
In other words, he may romp home but shit happens, even to
apparent good things.
To
bet or not to bet, ………that is the question.
My model is not concerned with market odds or opinions or “value”.
It assesses only the objective stats of a runner’s race record and it’s
breeding, with the simple aim of identifying those runners whose CVs have,
according to its parameters, the best fits with those of recent GN winners and
near-missers. What I do with its output is another matter.
I’m
fortunate to have backed CC (albeit belatedly) at 20/1 and, though
@Killier_Kish has made great points as to why it might make sense to lay an
early bet off now, he’s an integral part of my each-way book and I’ll only do
so if it looks like being rain-softened ground.
However,
given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune that typify a GN, 4/1 is “crackers”, to quote his trainer.
Why backing him e/w is not at all ridiculous IMHO:
I’m firmly of the view that if this fella was at a bigger
yard, he’d be 40/1 tops. Indeed, SkyBet have made him 40s for a while so, if he
takes your fancy, I’d move to snaffle the 80s offered only by Bet365 pronto.
Stayed on strongly under 11.07 to win a
strongly-run (Listed) Summer Cup over 26f at Uttoxeter on Good ground last
July.
Never tried beyond 26.5f but closely-related to
classy stayer Ad Hoc - twice the strong-finishing winner of 29f Whitbread,
a near-misser in a Scottish GN and who was “travelling well on heels of leaders, tanking along " [RP] when BD 4 out in the 2002 GN. Also in the family, Ryalux, strong-finishing winner of
the 33f Scottish GN on his first try beyond 25f. Has Wild Risk on his damside.
Sired by Kings Theatre (sire of GN near-misser Balthazar
King and The Druids Nephew, unlucky faller 5 out when leading and travelling strongly)
A “spring/summer horse”, with 63% win and 75% frame-making
rate in 8 chases April~July, compared to 22% wins and 33% frame-making in other
months.
Has won on Good and Heavy but form and all his
breeding suggests that a sound surface is likely to bring out his best over an extended trip.
Loves flat, left-handed tracks, especially
Aintree - form reads 1211 over the Mildmay course. Two runs over the GN course
in Becher chases: was unlucky to unseat on the flat last December (a tack
issue) but had travelled and jumped well for a long way on soft ground a year
earlier (in contention until 2 out). Notably, had a wind op immediately afterwards,
since when he’s clocked his Listed 26f win and, back on the Mildmay, a career-best
[+6lbs] chase RPR151
That came in a “high quality and tremendously
competitive” [RP] veterans’ 25f chase in October on Soft. 4 of the next 7
home won or near-missed next time out (including 5th place Vieux
Lion Rouge who romped home in the Becher Chase) and another, Vintage Clouds,
just notched a fine win at The Festival albeit off 6lbs lower mark.
2 wins from 5 runs this season in the sweet spot.
2 URs can be ignored (Becher misfortune and badly hampered in next).
Allotted GNOR148, though now only 3lbs below his
revised high RPR (originally 154) he’ll carry a very workable 10.05.
91 days since his last run is outside One For
Arthur’s stat-breaking 84 but, especially as he’s got older, his record going
fresh is excellent - winning 4 of the last 5 after 50+ day breaks.
A
touch of the Saint Are’s about this fella – he always
raised his game at Aintree and came a fine 8L 3rd as an 11yo in the 2017 GN on decent ground after misfortune in the Becher and best season's form coming in veterans company (also with just a 3lb premium of season-high RPR to GNOR147).
Fingers crossed he avoids misfortune - he could seriously outrun his odds.
WTF ?? Someone's got to be having a belated April fool's prank here on MetCheck surely. 12mm of Snow on GN day?? Was showing sunshine and no precipitation this morning. Even now, forecast for 10 April in Liverpool is 13 degrees and sunshine on Accuweather / 9 degrees and sunshine on BBC Weather.
Ok, famous last words but I always go by the BBC forecast, which is rarely incorrect. I gave up on Metcheck and others years ago, because they were regularly wrong. BBC has said all along not much rain leading up to the 10th.
OK, the CV summary for one of the remaining 2 of the top 7 contenders
on Good-to-Soft - Kimberlite Candy and Minella Times – both flagged
up when 40/1 but now much shorter.
KIMBERLITE CANDY (9yo, 10.10, 12/1)
Joint #4th rated “Next best” on Good to Soft
Joint top-rated “Winning calibre” on Soft
· Burst into GN reckoning last season with an
eye-catching, fence-gobbling close 2nd in the 2019 Becher Chase and ran well
again in the 2020 renewal when 2nd to a “thrown in” winner. Absolutely
loves the fences, though both Becher runs on Soft.
· Stamina looks assured, having stormed home under
11.04 in January 2020’s 29f Warwick National (RPR160 - a 7lb premium to his GNOR153), also on Soft. At that
time, KC was following a near-identical prep to One For Arthur prior to his 2017
GN win - fate intervened of course.
· So, a slight surprise he’s had just the 1 run this
season (in the Becher, 126 days prior) but seemingly down to Tom Lacey’s
preference than any training hold ups. To win he’d smash 2 stats that have
stood for at least 34 years (One For Arthur pushed the boundary out to 84 days for
remotest prior run in 2017 [his 3rd run of the season] and Rathvinden
had only 1 run [42 days] prior to his 5L 3rd in 2019) but there is
an interesting precedent from 2004, when another JP-owned lover of the GN
fences, Clan Royal, had an identical prep to KC and would have won but for poor
piloting. And in 2000, Mely Moss hadn’t run for 345 days when unluckily (twice
hampered) losing by 1L to Papillon. So it’s a stat-fail but not a red-line job.
· Importantly, he does go well when fresh (50%
wins and 75% first 2 home after 50+ days break)
· Pedigree ticks a key box with Wild Risk present on
damside:
Sire Flemensfirth has 3 GN runners-up (King
Johns Castle, The Last Samuri and Magic of Light) among his progeny.
Be My Native is his damsire (also to many
outstanding stayers, including Native River, GN runner up Black Apalachi and GN
4th Gilgamboa)
3rd damsire Menelek (sired GN winners Rag Trade and Hallo Dandy) crops up in the cast of dam-sires of several contenders this year (incl. also The Storyteller, Any Second Now, Potters Corner and Secret Reprieve)
Half-brother Hawkes Point (sired by Kayf Tara, whose
progeny have a poorer record in GNs) certainly needed soft ground - close 2nd
in heavy-ground 2013 Welsh GN but outpaced in same-season GN on GS. But another
close relative, high class stayer, Beau was more versatile and twice UR’d when going
well in GNs, once on Good ground.
· 10.10 a very winnable with burden, while KC’s best chance of doing so would certainly
be on soft ground, if one re-watches the race, his 15L 5th as a relatively backward
7yo in a fast-paced (3 secs slow of std), decent-quality Eider Chase over 4m in 2019 was not unpromising
for him handling the pace of a GN on genuine GS a good deal better than his half-brother.
Still the more, late rain and more give in the ground the better.
And last but certainly not least among the top 7 rated ……..
MINELLA TIMES (8yo, 10.03, 14/1)
Joint #4th rated “Next best” on Good to Soft
While he's had some fancied failures, JP McManus has had
more than a sprinkling of success with progressive, unexposed types in GNs down
the years – King John's Castle (2nd in 2008), Double Seven (3rd
2014) and Gilgamboa (4th 2016), all untested beyond 25f and, since the
course changes, 8 yos in their 2nd season over fences.
Indeed, though he placed in the Gold Cup in between, Anibale
Fly was likewise at the time the GN weights were framed and came home 4th
in the 2018 GN.
Minella Times is another one off the production-line bearing
the green and gold – an 8 yo in his 2nd season chasing, unexposed
beyond 24f but with the stat-profile to follow in their hoof-steps in his GN
debut:
· 2 near-misses in his only attempts at 3m,
including a not-stopping 4.5L 2nd in the Paddy Power Handicap in December - a
race that's typically a good, big-field (22) proxy for the hurly-burly of a GN
and which Anibale Fly won and in which Gilgamboa placed 4 months prior to making
the frame in the GN.
The form of this year’s PP Hdcp looks rock solid with the first 6 home between
them contributing 6 wins or near-misses from 9 subsequent runs; most recently
Farclas, an unlucky near-misser at The Festival.
· Pedigree supports the view that he should have
the temperament and gas in the tank for a GN:
Sired by Oscar (whose progeny include GN frame-makers
Oscar Time (x2) and Teaforthree)
From the family of Rambling Minster (won at 4
miles) and Just A Par (29f Whitbread winner)
Dam-sire Anshan (sire of GN near-misser McKelvey
and a G1 winner at 10f+ on the flat) and his 2nd and 3rd
dam-sires between them dam-sired a GN 2nd, GN 3rd and a
Scottish GN winner
Also present on the dam-side is Wild Risk and an
X-chromosome link to one of the most influential broodmares of the 20th
century and conveyor of a “big heart gene”, Mumtaz Mahal. It's not rare for a thoroughbred to have a conveyable, known source of the big heart gene within 7 generations but it's far from universal. Yet each of Double Seven, Gilgamboa and Anibale Fly happened to possess one. Of the 4 of them, however, only Minella Times also has the Wild Risk component that's common to all 13 GN winners and near-missers post-2012.
· 3 runs in the season (1 win and 2 near-misses)
perfect for a GN stats-wise; the last 62 days prior was pre-weights so beyond
the “norm” for winners but within One For Arthur’s 84 days. He is another with
a good record when fresh, winning or near-missing each of his last 4 starts
after a 50+ day break.
· A featherweight 10.03 to carry, he handles any ground but best chance at the trip would probably be on GS.
· Originally flagged up when 40/1 but being
trained by the current King of Cheltenham, Henry De Bromhead, and almost
certainly piloted by the Queen, Rachel Blackmore, unsurprisingly he’s been
backed into top-priced 14/1. She has a great record riding him (100% wins or near-misses
in 4 chases) but makes no diff to my model's stat-rating.
Confirmation Stage tomorrow.
We already know that Santini, Pym and Beware The Bear will be scratched, meaning that Minella Times is guaranteed to make the cut, along with all others on OR146 (Farclas, Sub Lieutenant and Hogan's Height).
Ok, famous last words but I always go by the BBC forecast, which is rarely incorrect. I gave up on Metcheck and others years ago, because they were regularly wrong. BBC has said all along not much rain leading up to the 10th.
We already know that Santini, Pym and Beware The Bear will be scratched, meaning that Minella Times is guaranteed to make the cut, along with all others on OR146 (Farclas, Sub Lieutenant and Hogan's Height).
We already know that Santini, Pym and Beware The Bear will be scratched, meaning that Minella Times is guaranteed to make the cut, along with all others on OR146 (Farclas, Sub Lieutenant and Hogan's Height).
Do you think Secret Reprieve will make it?
Looking touch and go tbh but if he doesn't make it it will mean the joint highest OR for the cut in recent times (145, as it was in 2016). In addition to the 3 Henderson horses mentioned, he needs at least 3 more to be scratched by Thursday's declarations (4 if he doesn't get pref over Some Neck, also on OR144) to make the cut, though he's sure to be a reserve at least. Looking down the list, most of them seem to me to be intended runners and (other than the ones that we know have been laid out for it) appear to be fit as they've had a prep, though you usually lose one or two with a niggle. May boil down to whether quick ground prompts one or both of Lord Du Mesnil and Yala Enki to defect. Farclas has an entry in the Topham but maybe quick ground will incline them to the GN. Wouldn't be the first time a strong market fancy has failed to make the cut.
Magic of Light 20/1 Alpha Des Obeaux 66/1 Minellacelebration 66/1
Thanks for the heads up. I think that 66/1 for Alpha Des Obeaux 6 places is a good bet. Has the perfect profile for a lower placer and Peanuts' write ups are very convincing!
Hi Peanuts - what chance do you give Run Wild Fred?
Sorry to be slow getting back @801912601 Very interesting pick out is Fred. He'll be fortunate to make the cut with OR140 (not impossible but I'm estimating the cut will come among the 142s) but he’s got a very promising profile actually. Ticks a surprising number of boxes given he's only run 6 times over fences under Rules and, including an age and inexperience penalty, he only fails 3 of my Screentests. That would put him in the top 10 or thereabouts, so unlikely to figure at the business end but at 40/1 NRNB there are plenty worse e/w shouts. Thyestes 2nd was very impressive, shaping like he'd be better at further (and the winner and 5th have won since) but, as a 7 yo novice who only started chasing in October, in my (or rather my model's) view it’s a year too early for him. I know Rule The World was technically a novice when he won but he had a lot more experience and had near-missed in an Irish GN. No 7yo GN winner for 81 years now and barely a place to speak of in living memory but I do think we'll likely see a 7 yo winner (or at least near-misser) in the near future, indicated by the fact that 8 yos are doing much better in the post-2012 GNs. One to keep an eye on an maybe back early for next year.
Great summary. Knew I recognised the name. 2nd in the Irish GN at 9/1. Likely to be among the favourites for Aintree 2022?
Seems that Farclas is a runner and with Jack Kennedy riding. Averaged over 100 on Betfair and 33s NRNB is still left with PP/Betfair. Goes off less than half that imo.
If he stays he must go close, officially 6lbs well in. But I accept that is a big IF
Comments
He'll have to fall out the back of the telly to get his mark down in a G1. Presumably a last trip?
Great 3 points lads. COYR!!!!
Receding threat of meaningful rainfall next week and a sunny race day now forecast; official “Good to Soft” looking nailed on for the GN and, given the later Off time these days, it may once again ride as effectively GS/Good.
Covering the variety of GS (quicker or softer) and based on final stats as they now stand, the top-rated candidates are:
Top-rated (1~2+):
· Magic Of Light
· Discorama (the more juice in the ground the better)
· Cloth Cap (the quicker the ground the better)
Next best (3+):
· Minellacelebration (recent downgrade to his RPR-high relegates him from winning-calibre)
· Kimberlite Candy (more juice the better)
· Minella Times
· Alpha Des Obeaux
Most Potential to Gate-Crash:
· Acapella Bourgeois
· Give Me A Copper
· If he’s in touch after The Chair (15th), Some Neck will be a big danger
With only 3 winning-calibre contenders (there have been 5~7 each time when back-testing the 2013~19 GNs), if fortune looks kindly on them, there's every chance of one of the 3+ brigade scoring.
I’ve set out the CV summaries for MOL, Disco and Alpha Des Obeaux recently. Here are the others:
CLOTH CAP (9 yo, 10.05, 4/1 fav)
Little of this will be new but:
· Just 10.05 to carry, his GNOR of 148 is 14lbs “well-in” relative to his new handicap mark, having won at Kelso after the GN weights were set. Would have 11.05 if the weights were set now.
· Accorded an RPR165 for that Kelso win, he has the highest premium (17lbs) of season-high 3m+ chase RPR to GNOR of any GN runner since (at least) 2013
· Stamina proven when a staying-on close 3rd (4L) in the 2019 Scottish GN
· Proven in a large field both at Ayr (23) and when romping home with first-time cheek pieces (making all and hitting the line strongly) in last November’s Ladbroke Trophy (18) at Newbury (had a 10lb lower OR than any Hennessy winner for 15 years).
· Healthy 56% strike rate at 3m+ over fences (5 wins or near-misses from 9), making the frame in all 5 on Gd or GS (won 3)
· Dam-side pedigree is a strong +. From the family of GN winner Amberleigh House and GN 4th Niche Market, his dam-sire is Old Vic (sired GN winners Don’t Push It and Comply Or Die and damsire of Scottish GN winner Joe Farrell and a G1 winner at 12f) who also brings Wild Risk to the party.
· 3 runs in the season (2 wins), the last 35 days prior is on the money for GN success
· All in all a very worthy favourite but in the context of being 4/1 ……..
.... some words of caution:
· He doesn’t have a flawless stat-profile - one of his 2 stat fails is a poor hurdles RPR123 from 6 runs (133+ is a surprisingly strong stat post-2012 for those with no course form)
· He might still place but is vulnerable if rain does come and the ground rides appreciably softer than GS. His 4 chases at 3m+ on official Soft have yielded a best RPR142 (23lbs below that on GS)
· Race tactics. He made every yard in the Ladbroke and at Kelso under Tom Scu and we can expect him to be ridden prominently again (not least for CC to have a clear sight of the fences) but also to line up (if possible) hard on the inner. Notably in the Scottish GN (first time beyond 25f), he didn’t front-run but still raced handy, on the rail. In fact, in all 3 of his big field chases, he’s raced (under different pilots) hard on the inner and avoided traffic. Two possible problems:
(a) If he gets his way and the inside pozzy, he’ll be facing Bechers (6th) at or near the point of its steepest drop (an extra 5” on the inner and 10” lower than take-off). He may take it with aplomb but it might find him out, as it has others.
(b) If he doesn’t, unless he holds front-rank (and there will be competition), there’s a greater chance of CC being exposed to the mayhem of a typical GN. He may cope fine but sons of Beneficial, even with excellent staying credentials, have a poor record in GNs (5 having run 7 times in total, twice as 16/1 shots: x2 F, x3 PU and a best-placed 11th 33L).
· Finally, he is indeed on paper very “well-in” at the weights and has the highest premium of 3m+ RPR to GNOR (17lbs) since at least the course changes. But the next highest included:
In other words, he may romp home but shit happens, even to apparent good things.
To bet or not to bet, ………that is the question.
My model is not concerned with market odds or opinions or “value”. It assesses only the objective stats of a runner’s race record and it’s breeding, with the simple aim of identifying those runners whose CVs have, according to its parameters, the best fits with those of recent GN winners and near-missers. What I do with its output is another matter.
I’m fortunate to have backed CC (albeit belatedly) at 20/1 and, though @Killier_Kish has made great points as to why it might make sense to lay an early bet off now, he’s an integral part of my each-way book and I’ll only do so if it looks like being rain-softened ground.
However, given the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune that typify a GN, 4/1 is “crackers”, to quote his trainer.
Others coming shortly ……
Next up: From the sublime to the ridiculous?
MINELLACELEBRATION (11yo, 10.05, 80/1)
Why backing him e/w is not at all ridiculous IMHO:
I’m firmly of the view that if this fella was at a bigger yard, he’d be 40/1 tops. Indeed, SkyBet have made him 40s for a while so, if he takes your fancy, I’d move to snaffle the 80s offered only by Bet365 pronto.
A touch of the Saint Are’s about this fella – he always raised his game at Aintree and came a fine 8L 3rd as an 11yo in the 2017 GN on decent ground after misfortune in the Becher and best season's form coming in veterans company (also with just a 3lb premium of season-high RPR to GNOR147).
Fingers crossed he avoids misfortune - he could seriously outrun his odds.
Someone's got to be having a belated April fool's prank here on MetCheck surely.
12mm of Snow on GN day?? Was showing sunshine and no precipitation this morning.
Even now, forecast for 10 April in Liverpool is 13 degrees and sunshine on Accuweather / 9 degrees and sunshine on BBC Weather.
I gave up on Metcheck and others years ago, because they were regularly wrong.
BBC has said all along not much rain leading up to the 10th.
"Snow possible as 'changeable forecast' proves challenging for Aintree team"
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/snow-possible-as-changeable-forecast-proves-challenging-for-aintree-team/482372
OK, the CV summary for one of the remaining 2 of the top 7 contenders on Good-to-Soft - Kimberlite Candy and Minella Times – both flagged up when 40/1 but now much shorter.
KIMBERLITE CANDY (9yo, 10.10, 12/1)
Joint #4th rated “Next best” on Good to Soft
Joint top-rated “Winning calibre” on Soft
· Burst into GN reckoning last season with an eye-catching, fence-gobbling close 2nd in the 2019 Becher Chase and ran well again in the 2020 renewal when 2nd to a “thrown in” winner. Absolutely loves the fences, though both Becher runs on Soft.
· Stamina looks assured, having stormed home under 11.04 in January 2020’s 29f Warwick National (RPR160 - a 7lb premium to his GNOR153), also on Soft. At that time, KC was following a near-identical prep to One For Arthur prior to his 2017 GN win - fate intervened of course.
· So, a slight surprise he’s had just the 1 run this season (in the Becher, 126 days prior) but seemingly down to Tom Lacey’s preference than any training hold ups. To win he’d smash 2 stats that have stood for at least 34 years (One For Arthur pushed the boundary out to 84 days for remotest prior run in 2017 [his 3rd run of the season] and Rathvinden had only 1 run [42 days] prior to his 5L 3rd in 2019) but there is an interesting precedent from 2004, when another JP-owned lover of the GN fences, Clan Royal, had an identical prep to KC and would have won but for poor piloting. And in 2000, Mely Moss hadn’t run for 345 days when unluckily (twice hampered) losing by 1L to Papillon. So it’s a stat-fail but not a red-line job.
· Importantly, he does go well when fresh (50% wins and 75% first 2 home after 50+ days break)
· Pedigree ticks a key box with Wild Risk present on damside:
· 10.10 a very winnable with burden, while KC’s best chance of doing so would certainly be on soft ground, if one re-watches the race, his 15L 5th as a relatively backward 7yo in a fast-paced (3 secs slow of std), decent-quality Eider Chase over 4m in 2019 was not unpromising for him handling the pace of a GN on genuine GS a good deal better than his half-brother. Still the more, late rain and more give in the ground the better.
And last but certainly not least among the top 7 rated ……..
MINELLA TIMES (8yo, 10.03, 14/1)
Joint #4th rated “Next best” on Good to Soft
While he's had some fancied failures, JP McManus has had more than a sprinkling of success with progressive, unexposed types in GNs down the years – King John's Castle (2nd in 2008), Double Seven (3rd 2014) and Gilgamboa (4th 2016), all untested beyond 25f and, since the course changes, 8 yos in their 2nd season over fences.
Indeed, though he placed in the Gold Cup in between, Anibale Fly was likewise at the time the GN weights were framed and came home 4th in the 2018 GN.
Minella Times is another one off the production-line bearing the green and gold – an 8 yo in his 2nd season chasing, unexposed beyond 24f but with the stat-profile to follow in their hoof-steps in his GN debut:
· 2 near-misses in his only attempts at 3m, including a not-stopping 4.5L 2nd in the Paddy Power Handicap in December - a race that's typically a good, big-field (22) proxy for the hurly-burly of a GN and which Anibale Fly won and in which Gilgamboa placed 4 months prior to making the frame in the GN.
The form of this year’s PP Hdcp looks rock solid with the first 6 home between them contributing 6 wins or near-misses from 9 subsequent runs; most recently Farclas, an unlucky near-misser at The Festival.
· Pedigree supports the view that he should have the temperament and gas in the tank for a GN:
· 3 runs in the season (1 win and 2 near-misses) perfect for a GN stats-wise; the last 62 days prior was pre-weights so beyond the “norm” for winners but within One For Arthur’s 84 days. He is another with a good record when fresh, winning or near-missing each of his last 4 starts after a 50+ day break.
· A featherweight 10.03 to carry, he handles any ground but best chance at the trip would probably be on GS.
· Originally flagged up when 40/1 but being trained by the current King of Cheltenham, Henry De Bromhead, and almost certainly piloted by the Queen, Rachel Blackmore, unsurprisingly he’s been backed into top-priced 14/1. She has a great record riding him (100% wins or near-misses in 4 chases) but makes no diff to my model's stat-rating.
Confirmation Stage tomorrow.
We already know that Santini, Pym and Beware The Bear will be scratched, meaning that Minella Times is guaranteed to make the cut, along with all others on OR146 (Farclas, Sub Lieutenant and Hogan's Height).
Watering restarts tomorrow.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/watering-to-begin-again-on-monday-as-dry-forecast-poses-challenges/482495
Looking touch and go tbh but if he doesn't make it it will mean the joint highest OR for the cut in recent times (145, as it was in 2016).
In addition to the 3 Henderson horses mentioned, he needs at least 3 more to be scratched by Thursday's declarations (4 if he doesn't get pref over Some Neck, also on OR144) to make the cut, though he's sure to be a reserve at least.
Looking down the list, most of them seem to me to be intended runners and (other than the ones that we know have been laid out for it) appear to be fit as they've had a prep, though you usually lose one or two with a niggle.
May boil down to whether quick ground prompts one or both of Lord Du Mesnil and Yala Enki to defect.
Farclas has an entry in the Topham but maybe quick ground will incline them to the GN.
Wouldn't be the first time a strong market fancy has failed to make the cut.
That means currently the 4 reserves are:
Blaklion
Secret Reprieve
Magic of Light 20/1
Alpha Des Obeaux 66/1
Minellacelebration 66/1
Ben Linfoot’s horse by horse review, should it be of interest.
If he stays he must go close, officially 6lbs well in. But I accept that is a big IF
Or or if you prefer, Racing TV’s rundown.
Farclas
Minellaceleberation
Discorama
Le Breuil
no doubt i will end up adding another few on the day.