I'm not saying that Newcastle will do a "Leicester" (although there are certain similarities) and will win the PL because, unless Liverpool have a really bad run, they are too far behind but the 19/1 available on the Betfair Sportsbook *** to finish in the top two looks a bit of a value - finding big price value potential winners is far more important than throwing money at every odds on shot, such as Arsenal at 1/3, will end up, in the long run, in the poor house!
The reasons for suggesting this are based on the following:
9 wins on the trot in all comps, including 6 PL wins, scoring 26 and conceding 3
having one of the best managers in the PL who has a squad that are used to playing together and have a settled unit- Kelly is the only one to start a game in the PL having not been with them last season
Isak is, on current form, the best all round CF in the country (but does need to stay fit for the duration of course) and Wilson is due to be ft in a couple of weeks to come off the bench
their midfield powerhouse three of Tonali, Guimares and Joelinton has to be about the most balanced and consistent in the PL
two young, energetic and skillful full backs in Hall and Livramento with Trippier as back up
perm any two from three solid CBs in Burn, Botman and Schar
wide they have the all action influences of Gordon and Murphy, with both currently playing out of their skin, with Barnes, when fit again, to come on as an impact sub
Dubravka has stepped up in the absence of Pope, so much so that the latter isn't guaranteed to get his place back when fit
Arsenal are still lacking a CF and are not the same side when they have Saka and Odegaard missing or out of form. Saka isn't likely to be back for weeks and Odegaard hasn't been firing this season especially following his recent injury - just one goal and three assists in total
Pep knows that City can't win the PL, given their total lack of consistency and inability to keep clean sheets (one in their last 11 PL matches) and will focus on the CL
as brilliantly well as Forest have done, I'm not so sure that they have the all round squad to be able to sustain their run - they have become reliant on Wood for their goals but their success can as much be attributed to their keeper, Sels, who has been outstanding and the defence containing Murillo, Aina and Milenkovic. I'm not certain that they have the resource to chase a game should they need to and man-for-man they aren't as good as Newcastle
Chelsea are now blowing "hot and cold" and have picked up just 3 points in their last 5 matches
Newcastle have to go to Arsenal, City and Liverpool but, in a perverse way, playing those sides away might actually suit them better with the onus on the home side to take the game to them - this season, in all comps, they've already won at Wolves, Forest, Ipswich, United, Arsenal and Spurs
the single biggest factor though and similarity with Leicester is Newcastle not being in Europe. Yes they have, potentially, two games in the Carabao Cup and are still in the FA Cup too but there aren't, unlike in 2015-16, any replays to worry about and there isn't the travelling that those clubs in Europe have to handle. That season, Leicester played just 43 matches, Arsenal had 54, Spurs had 53, City had 59 and Liverpool a massive 63 and 20 more games than Leicester had to play. In the final 14 weeks of the season, Leicester had just one week when they had to play more than one game - this and minimal injuries was the reason why 10 of their players started 30 or more matches with their two main men, Vardy and Mahrez missing just three games between them which is why Isak's fitness will be so important to Newcastle's success
*** just checked and cut to 16/1 since I placed my bet though I suspect not because of it!!!
You certainly list a lot of valid reasons why they have a chance of top 2. Those odds will surely shorten in the coming fortnight as well because their next 3 games are Bournemouth H, Southampton A, Fulham H.
That said, i think if Arsenal sign a striker in this window (and surely they have to), then they will probably have enough to get top 2.
Isak has been the best striker in the Premier League for me for about a year, he's just a proper proper player, scores, link up play is as good as anyone, and must be a right fucking pain for defenders to deal with.
If I was Arsenal, I would empty the bank in the summer and get him if Newcastle have to sell for PSR reasons
I wouldn't be surprised if Newcastle have to sell one of Isak and Bruno in the summer. Think City would be all over signing Bruno given their midfield issues and he'd be easier to replace than Isak.
Isak has been the best striker in the Premier League for me for about a year, he's just a proper proper player, scores, link up play is as good as anyone, and must be a right fucking pain for defenders to deal with.
If I was Arsenal, I would empty the bank in the summer and get him if Newcastle have to sell for PSR reasons
I think Arsenal have missed the boat, last summer was realistically the time to get him if they were going to. Might have got him then for about 90-100m.
He's 25, under contract until 2028 and there's a strong possibility they'll be playing CL football next year. Unless he puts in a transfer request and downs tools i don't see why they'd accept anything under 150m.
They're also clear of PSR issues for now. The PL announced no clubs are going to be sanctioned for the last year which means we move into another year, and the £73m Newcastle lost in 21/22 drops out of the 3-year PSR cycle.
The one thing that makes the PL good for a neutral, is that Champions League places are so hard to achieve for the Big 6 clubs. Teams like City and Chelsea will really have to fight to get top 4, while United and Spurs are way off.
I'm not saying that Newcastle will do a "Leicester" (although there are certain similarities) and will win the PL because, unless Liverpool have a really bad run, they are too far behind but the 19/1 available on the Betfair Sportsbook *** to finish in the top two looks a bit of a value - finding big price value potential winners is far more important than throwing money at every odds on shot, such as Arsenal at 1/3, will end up, in the long run, in the poor house!
The reasons for suggesting this are based on the following:
9 wins on the trot in all comps, including 6 PL wins, scoring 26 and conceding 3
having one of the best managers in the PL who has a squad that are used to playing together and have a settled unit- Kelly is the only one to start a game in the PL having not been with them last season
Isak is, on current form, the best all round CF in the country (but does need to stay fit for the duration of course) and Wilson is due to be ft in a couple of weeks to come off the bench
their midfield powerhouse three of Tonali, Guimares and Joelinton has to be about the most balanced and consistent in the PL
two young, energetic and skillful full backs in Hall and Livramento with Trippier as back up
perm any two from three solid CBs in Burn, Botman and Schar
wide they have the all action influences of Gordon and Murphy, with both currently playing out of their skin, with Barnes, when fit again, to come on as an impact sub
Dubravka has stepped up in the absence of Pope, so much so that the latter isn't guaranteed to get his place back when fit
Arsenal are still lacking a CF and are not the same side when they have Saka and Odegaard missing or out of form. Saka isn't likely to be back for weeks and Odegaard hasn't been firing this season especially following his recent injury - just one goal and three assists in total
Pep knows that City can't win the PL, given their total lack of consistency and inability to keep clean sheets (one in their last 11 PL matches) and will focus on the CL
as brilliantly well as Forest have done, I'm not so sure that they have the all round squad to be able to sustain their run - they have become reliant on Wood for their goals but their success can as much be attributed to their keeper, Sels, who has been outstanding and the defence containing Murillo, Aina and Milenkovic. I'm not certain that they have the resource to chase a game should they need to and man-for-man they aren't as good as Newcastle
Chelsea are now blowing "hot and cold" and have picked up just 3 points in their last 5 matches
Newcastle have to go to Arsenal, City and Liverpool but, in a perverse way, playing those sides away might actually suit them better with the onus on the home side to take the game to them - this season, in all comps, they've already won at Wolves, Forest, Ipswich, United, Arsenal and Spurs
the single biggest factor though and similarity with Leicester is Newcastle not being in Europe. Yes they have, potentially, two games in the Carabao Cup and are still in the FA Cup too but there aren't, unlike in 2015-16, any replays to worry about and there isn't the travelling that those clubs in Europe have to handle. That season, Leicester played just 43 matches, Arsenal had 54, Spurs had 53, City had 59 and Liverpool a massive 63 and 20 more games than Leicester had to play. In the final 14 weeks of the season, Leicester had just one week when they had to play more than one game - this and minimal injuries was the reason why 10 of their players started 30 or more matches with their two main men, Vardy and Mahrez missing just three games between them which is why Isak's fitness will be so important to Newcastle's success
*** just checked and cut to 16/1 since I placed my bet though I suspect not because of it!!!
Will lump on my winnings from your Bournemouth to go down recommendation a while back - let me look up the cash out value.
Anyone else think that Bournemouth to be relegated at 12/1 (16.5 on Betfair) might be a bit of value? Yes I am fully aware that Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich are nailed on to be in the dogfight and that the likes of Wolves, Palace and Everton could be in the melting pot too but Bournemouth did lose 19 goal Solanke and the 8 points they secured were at home to Southampton (3) and Newcastle (1) and away to Everton (3) and Forest (1). The draw at Forest was as a result of an 87th minute equaliser and the win at Everton was that bizarre game in which the home side capitulated to the extent that they conceded three goals in the final five minutes or so. Bournemouth lost at home to Chelsea and away to Liverpool and Leicester.
Bournemouth's next three matches are Arsenal (H), Villa (A) and City (H). They will be expected to probably lose all three matches and any points gained will be a plus.
Found it, for anyone wanting a fascinating read into how badly you can get it wrong sometimes
I'm not saying that Newcastle will do a "Leicester" (although there are certain similarities) and will win the PL because, unless Liverpool have a really bad run, they are too far behind but the 19/1 available on the Betfair Sportsbook *** to finish in the top two looks a bit of a value - finding big price value potential winners is far more important than throwing money at every odds on shot, such as Arsenal at 1/3, will end up, in the long run, in the poor house!
The reasons for suggesting this are based on the following:
9 wins on the trot in all comps, including 6 PL wins, scoring 26 and conceding 3
having one of the best managers in the PL who has a squad that are used to playing together and have a settled unit- Kelly is the only one to start a game in the PL having not been with them last season
Isak is, on current form, the best all round CF in the country (but does need to stay fit for the duration of course) and Wilson is due to be ft in a couple of weeks to come off the bench
their midfield powerhouse three of Tonali, Guimares and Joelinton has to be about the most balanced and consistent in the PL
two young, energetic and skillful full backs in Hall and Livramento with Trippier as back up
perm any two from three solid CBs in Burn, Botman and Schar
wide they have the all action influences of Gordon and Murphy, with both currently playing out of their skin, with Barnes, when fit again, to come on as an impact sub
Dubravka has stepped up in the absence of Pope, so much so that the latter isn't guaranteed to get his place back when fit
Arsenal are still lacking a CF and are not the same side when they have Saka and Odegaard missing or out of form. Saka isn't likely to be back for weeks and Odegaard hasn't been firing this season especially following his recent injury - just one goal and three assists in total
Pep knows that City can't win the PL, given their total lack of consistency and inability to keep clean sheets (one in their last 11 PL matches) and will focus on the CL
as brilliantly well as Forest have done, I'm not so sure that they have the all round squad to be able to sustain their run - they have become reliant on Wood for their goals but their success can as much be attributed to their keeper, Sels, who has been outstanding and the defence containing Murillo, Aina and Milenkovic. I'm not certain that they have the resource to chase a game should they need to and man-for-man they aren't as good as Newcastle
Chelsea are now blowing "hot and cold" and have picked up just 3 points in their last 5 matches
Newcastle have to go to Arsenal, City and Liverpool but, in a perverse way, playing those sides away might actually suit them better with the onus on the home side to take the game to them - this season, in all comps, they've already won at Wolves, Forest, Ipswich, United, Arsenal and Spurs
the single biggest factor though and similarity with Leicester is Newcastle not being in Europe. Yes they have, potentially, two games in the Carabao Cup and are still in the FA Cup too but there aren't, unlike in 2015-16, any replays to worry about and there isn't the travelling that those clubs in Europe have to handle. That season, Leicester played just 43 matches, Arsenal had 54, Spurs had 53, City had 59 and Liverpool a massive 63 and 20 more games than Leicester had to play. In the final 14 weeks of the season, Leicester had just one week when they had to play more than one game - this and minimal injuries was the reason why 10 of their players started 30 or more matches with their two main men, Vardy and Mahrez missing just three games between them which is why Isak's fitness will be so important to Newcastle's success
*** just checked and cut to 16/1 since I placed my bet though I suspect not because of it!!!
Will lump on my winnings from your Bournemouth to go down recommendation a while back - let me look up the cash out value.
Anyone else think that Bournemouth to be relegated at 12/1 (16.5 on Betfair) might be a bit of value? Yes I am fully aware that Southampton, Leicester and Ipswich are nailed on to be in the dogfight and that the likes of Wolves, Palace and Everton could be in the melting pot too but Bournemouth did lose 19 goal Solanke and the 8 points they secured were at home to Southampton (3) and Newcastle (1) and away to Everton (3) and Forest (1). The draw at Forest was as a result of an 87th minute equaliser and the win at Everton was that bizarre game in which the home side capitulated to the extent that they conceded three goals in the final five minutes or so. Bournemouth lost at home to Chelsea and away to Liverpool and Leicester.
Bournemouth's next three matches are Arsenal (H), Villa (A) and City (H). They will be expected to probably lose all three matches and any points gained will be a plus.
Found it, for anyone wanting a fascinating read into how badly you can get it wrong sometimes
LOL Good luck with finding a cash out on that one. You can get 1000 on Betfair right now. I couldn't have got that more wrong.
That's what happens when you're looking for value because you're looking for things that might be overpriced. An odds on shot might be overpriced but it is rare for it to be so because all the factors are available to the traders offering the price especially form and their own exposure on the book. Unless, that is, there is inside info such as a non league side has gone down with Covid or something untoward like "fixing" or a gentleman's agreement in place e.g. a team that needs a draw to stay up in the final game of a Serie A will be odds on when the true price should be in the 9/4 to 3/1 range and that game will, more often than not, uncannily, end up as a draw.
This morning Newcastle were 19/1 to finish second. Now they are a best priced 14/1 with the bookies (and just one bookie at that - you can back them at 15/1, less commission, on the Betfair Exchange). Either I've moved the market single handedly with my "fiver" or others think the same way and have backed them too. I might even arb that "fiver"!!! There comes a point, though, when that bet ceases to be value either because the punter has totally got it wrong (as in the case of Bournemouth) or because the bookies have got too big a liability and have artificially shortened the odds i.e. I wouldn't take anything less than say 12/1 right now on Newcastle finishing second.
Leicester were 5,000/1 to win the PL in 2015/16 and bookies were reluctant to shorten them for a long time because of their overall book on people backing those sides at the front of the market. 75 people put bets on Leicester, on Skybet alone, at that price. Imagine how much ridicule someone someone putting them up on here at the beginning or even half way through the season when they had 40 points from 19 games would have received. I mean, the likes of Leicester don't win the PL do they? Or that's what the traders at Skybet et al thought.
A casual look at the "Beat The Bookie" table sees the same person at the top that I believe won the competition the season before last. It appears that they don't back too many odds on shots. That's probably got nothing to do with value but just pure luck although I am reminded of that saying of Gary Player's - "the more value bets I find, the luckier I get". Or was it "the harder I practice the luckier I get"?
Southampton should've been 3 up after 75 minutes but there's a reason why they could finish with less points than Derby's record low points in Premier. They let in too many goals and miss too many chances. They played some lovely football at United but you live or die by the performance in both boxes.
I know it's how the game has developed but I hate seeing goals conceded by defender's piddling around with the ball in dangerous positions. I'd much rather see them kick it out to a safe position. Especially when played at a lower level where the standard of football is not so good.
We witness it all the time, when we beat Birmingham 1-0 at ours and they couldn't handle the high press from us when they took short goal kicks, did they change it up? No, they continued to pass it short to their centre backs, who then made mistakes under intense pressure. Is it a blind faith thing in their own abilities and tactics? Is it just pure stupidity? Or is there a different reason?
Palace sign Esse from Millwall. A typical Palace signing that, they've been very good at signing talented Championship players (Eze, Olise, Wharton) who've then stepped up, rather than flopped, and I suspect Esse will thrive also.
Palace sign Esse from Millwall. A typical Palace signing that, they've been very good at signing talented Championship players (Eze, Olise, Wharton) who've then stepped up, rather than flopped, and I suspect Esse will thrive also.
Nice bit of income for Millwall as well, we can only dream of selling players for £10m plus
Bournemouth thoroughly deserve their win. A stunning hat trick from Justin Kluivert who has now scored more goals at St James' Park than his old man did when playing for Newcastle.
Comments
The reasons for suggesting this are based on the following:
- 9 wins on the trot in all comps, including 6 PL wins, scoring 26 and conceding 3
- having one of the best managers in the PL who has a squad that are used to playing together and have a settled unit- Kelly is the only one to start a game in the PL having not been with them last season
- Isak is, on current form, the best all round CF in the country (but does need to stay fit for the duration of course) and Wilson is due to be ft in a couple of weeks to come off the bench
- their midfield powerhouse three of Tonali, Guimares and Joelinton has to be about the most balanced and consistent in the PL
- two young, energetic and skillful full backs in Hall and Livramento with Trippier as back up
- perm any two from three solid CBs in Burn, Botman and Schar
- wide they have the all action influences of Gordon and Murphy, with both currently playing out of their skin, with Barnes, when fit again, to come on as an impact sub
- Dubravka has stepped up in the absence of Pope, so much so that the latter isn't guaranteed to get his place back when fit
- Arsenal are still lacking a CF and are not the same side when they have Saka and Odegaard missing or out of form. Saka isn't likely to be back for weeks and Odegaard hasn't been firing this season especially following his recent injury - just one goal and three assists in total
- Pep knows that City can't win the PL, given their total lack of consistency and inability to keep clean sheets (one in their last 11 PL matches) and will focus on the CL
- as brilliantly well as Forest have done, I'm not so sure that they have the all round squad to be able to sustain their run - they have become reliant on Wood for their goals but their success can as much be attributed to their keeper, Sels, who has been outstanding and the defence containing Murillo, Aina and Milenkovic. I'm not certain that they have the resource to chase a game should they need to and man-for-man they aren't as good as Newcastle
- Chelsea are now blowing "hot and cold" and have picked up just 3 points in their last 5 matches
- Newcastle have to go to Arsenal, City and Liverpool but, in a perverse way, playing those sides away might actually suit them better with the onus on the home side to take the game to them - this season, in all comps, they've already won at Wolves, Forest, Ipswich, United, Arsenal and Spurs
- the single biggest factor though and similarity with Leicester is Newcastle not being in Europe. Yes they have, potentially, two games in the Carabao Cup and are still in the FA Cup too but there aren't, unlike in 2015-16, any replays to worry about and there isn't the travelling that those clubs in Europe have to handle. That season, Leicester played just 43 matches, Arsenal had 54, Spurs had 53, City had 59 and Liverpool a massive 63 and 20 more games than Leicester had to play. In the final 14 weeks of the season, Leicester had just one week when they had to play more than one game - this and minimal injuries was the reason why 10 of their players started 30 or more matches with their two main men, Vardy and Mahrez missing just three games between them which is why Isak's fitness will be so important to Newcastle's success
*** just checked and cut to 16/1 since I placed my bet though I suspect not because of it!!!That said, i think if Arsenal sign a striker in this window (and surely they have to), then they will probably have enough to get top 2.
If I was Arsenal, I would empty the bank in the summer and get him if Newcastle have to sell for PSR reasons
He's 25, under contract until 2028 and there's a strong possibility they'll be playing CL football next year. Unless he puts in a transfer request and downs tools i don't see why they'd accept anything under 150m.
They're also clear of PSR issues for now. The PL announced no clubs are going to be sanctioned for the last year which means we move into another year, and the £73m Newcastle lost in 21/22 drops out of the 3-year PSR cycle.
That's what happens when you're looking for value because you're looking for things that might be overpriced. An odds on shot might be overpriced but it is rare for it to be so because all the factors are available to the traders offering the price especially form and their own exposure on the book. Unless, that is, there is inside info such as a non league side has gone down with Covid or something untoward like "fixing" or a gentleman's agreement in place e.g. a team that needs a draw to stay up in the final game of a Serie A will be odds on when the true price should be in the 9/4 to 3/1 range and that game will, more often than not, uncannily, end up as a draw.
This morning Newcastle were 19/1 to finish second. Now they are a best priced 14/1 with the bookies (and just one bookie at that - you can back them at 15/1, less commission, on the Betfair Exchange). Either I've moved the market single handedly with my "fiver" or others think the same way and have backed them too. I might even arb that "fiver"!!! There comes a point, though, when that bet ceases to be value either because the punter has totally got it wrong (as in the case of Bournemouth) or because the bookies have got too big a liability and have artificially shortened the odds i.e. I wouldn't take anything less than say 12/1 right now on Newcastle finishing second.
Leicester were 5,000/1 to win the PL in 2015/16 and bookies were reluctant to shorten them for a long time because of their overall book on people backing those sides at the front of the market. 75 people put bets on Leicester, on Skybet alone, at that price. Imagine how much ridicule someone someone putting them up on here at the beginning or even half way through the season when they had 40 points from 19 games would have received. I mean, the likes of Leicester don't win the PL do they? Or that's what the traders at Skybet et al thought.
A casual look at the "Beat The Bookie" table sees the same person at the top that I believe won the competition the season before last. It appears that they don't back too many odds on shots. That's probably got nothing to do with value but just pure luck although I am reminded of that saying of Gary Player's - "the more value bets I find, the luckier I get". Or was it "the harder I practice the luckier I get"?
Pathetic that their players can perform when it comes to Liverpool and Arsenal then can't do the same v so many other teams.
I'd much rather see them kick it out to a safe position.
Especially when played at a lower level where the standard of football is not so good.
Palace sign Esse from Millwall. A typical Palace signing that, they've been very good at signing talented Championship players (Eze, Olise, Wharton) who've then stepped up, rather than flopped, and I suspect Esse will thrive also.
Is Peter Couch still growing?