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General Election 2015 official thread

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  • Fiiish
    Fiiish Posts: 7,998
    So will this thread be shut at 10pm? Or are we waiting for all the results to come in? Or wait until a new government is formed?

    Whatever happens, it's been pretty enjoyable and enlightening and always refreshing to hear other people's perspectives and situations. I might not seem particularly open-minded at times but to be honest I just enjoy a good discussion and a lot of the time I just play Devil's advocate. Most people on here are decent people with convictions and they're the kind of voters we need in this country. No hard feelings to those who I've butted heads with, even if things did sometimes get heated, but after tomorrow I won't even care if this thread happened or not, at the end of the day we're all Charlton and that's the important thing :)
  • Chizz
    Chizz Posts: 28,341
    Well! Bloody cheek. I, for one, am not going to allow *him* to have the last word...
  • sadiejane1981
    sadiejane1981 Posts: 9,012
    It's quite refreshing to have had a good political debate on here that hasn't gotten too heated, proves we are not all complete morons :wink:
  • stonemuse
    stonemuse Posts: 34,013
    Grapevine for PM ...not that he'd want it :wink:
  • stonemuse
    stonemuse Posts: 34,013

    It's quite refreshing to have had a good political debate on here that hasn't gotten too heated, proves we are not all complete morons :wink:

    Agreed Sadie, 109 pages for a political thread that wasn't blocked ...it's been very well worth reading, and GV's post capped it all.
  • Voted Conservative, Will be close but think Tories will edge it.
  • Chizz
    Chizz Posts: 28,341

    Voted Conservative, Will be close but think Tories will edge it.

    Do you mean you think the Tories will win a majority of the seats? Or will form part of a coalition (if so, with whom?)? Or will form a minority government?

  • InSollyWeTrust
    InSollyWeTrust Posts: 592
    edited May 2015
    Chizz said:

    Voted Conservative, Will be close but think Tories will edge it.

    Do you mean you think the Tories will win a majority of the seats? Or will form part of a coalition (if so, with whom?)? Or will form a minority government?


    I was talking simply in terms of votes ( seats obtained ), whether they can form a government however is a different matter.
  • sadiejane1981
    sadiejane1981 Posts: 9,012
    How many seats does a party need to form a minority government? And how do they get approved?
  • cabbles
    cabbles Posts: 15,256

    How many seats does a party need to form a minority government? And how do they get approved?

    The number for majority is 323, so I would guess however many they fall short of that????

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  • Fiiish
    Fiiish Posts: 7,998
    edited May 2015
    I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government. Analysts predict that in the likely event of a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively, voters will take it out on the smaller parties to ensure there is a clear winner second time round. Whether this will happen or not remains to be seen. I imagine Tories will attempt to go for a coalition with Lib Dems and DUP, otherwise unless Labour can tie up an agreement with the SNP as a minority government then it will be in the Tories interests to attempt to govern alone and gamble on getting more seats at the next election.
  • Red_in_SE8
    Red_in_SE8 Posts: 5,961
    Technically speaking if all seats were distributed evenly between 6 main parties you could form a minority government with little over 100 seats. Or am I talking nonsense?
  • AFKABartram
    AFKABartram Posts: 57,830
    edited May 2015
    Have stickies an anon voting intention poll at the top of the forum.
  • ValleyGary
    ValleyGary Posts: 37,987
    @AFKABartram I dunno if its my eyes but the lab/con colours are the wrong way round. That'll piss a few of the freaks on here right off.
  • Red_in_SE8
    Red_in_SE8 Posts: 5,961
    edited May 2015
    Fiiish said:

    I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government. Analysts predict that in the likely event of a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively, voters will take it out on the smaller parties to ensure there is a clear winner second time round. Whether this will happen or not remains to be seen. I imagine Tories will attempt to go for a coalition with Lib Dems and DUP, otherwise unless Labour can tie up an agreement with the SNP as a minority government then it will be in the Tories interests to attempt to govern alone and gamble on getting more seats at the next election.

    I thought by definition a minority government is where the the party that does not have the largest number of seats forms the government.

    ######UPDATE

    Just googled it. I am talking rubbish.

    ######
  • AFKABartram
    AFKABartram Posts: 57,830

    @AFKABartram I dunno if its my eyes but the lab/con colours are the wrong way round. That'll piss a few of the freaks on here right off.

    Just saw, a nice irony. Would have reordered if I knew the colours were done that way
  • Jints
    Jints Posts: 3,495
    Fiiish said:

    I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government. Analysts predict that in the likely event of a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively, voters will take it out on the smaller parties to ensure there is a clear winner second time round.

    A government can no longer call a snap election due to the awful fixed term Parliament Act that the coalition passed. A two thirds majority is required to dissolve Parliament unless a motion of no confidence is passed AND after a 14 day cooling off period nobody else can form a government. Hopefully, it will be repealed a soon as possible in the next Parliament. Two thirds majorities are so unBritish.



  • Fiiish
    Fiiish Posts: 7,998
    Jints said:

    Fiiish said:

    I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government. Analysts predict that in the likely event of a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively, voters will take it out on the smaller parties to ensure there is a clear winner second time round.

    A government can no longer call a snap election due to the awful fixed term Parliament Act that the coalition passed. A two thirds majority is required to dissolve Parliament unless a motion of no confidence is passed AND after a 14 day cooling off period nobody else can form a government. Hopefully, it will be repealed a soon as possible in the next Parliament. Two thirds majorities are so unBritish.



    Well that too, but if a minority Tory government holds its hands up and says it isn't going to govern any longer, what parties are going to vote against the motion to dissolve Parliament?
  • Red_in_SE8
    Red_in_SE8 Posts: 5,961
    edited May 2015
    My prediction. I think the Tory/Lib Dem coalition will scrape through. I think a lot the seats that pollsters are predicting the Lib Dems will lose will in fact stay Lib Dem because of massive tactical voting by traditional conservative voters.

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  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 20,851

    My prediction. I think the Tory/Lib Lab coalition will scrape through. I think a lot the seats that pollsters are predicting the Lib Dems will lose will in fact stay Lib Dem because of massive tactical voting by traditional conservative voters.

    I think a Tory/Lib Lab has every chance of scraping through! I assume you meant Tory/Lib Dem.
  • Red_in_SE8
    Red_in_SE8 Posts: 5,961
    bobmunro said:

    My prediction. I think the Tory/Lib Lab coalition will scrape through. I think a lot the seats that pollsters are predicting the Lib Dems will lose will in fact stay Lib Dem because of massive tactical voting by traditional conservative voters.

    I think a Tory/Lib Lab has every chance of scraping through! I assume you meant Tory/Lib Dem.
    Yes!
  • Jints
    Jints Posts: 3,495
    Fiiish said:

    Jints said:

    Fiiish said:

    I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government. Analysts predict that in the likely event of a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively, voters will take it out on the smaller parties to ensure there is a clear winner second time round.

    A government can no longer call a snap election due to the awful fixed term Parliament Act that the coalition passed. A two thirds majority is required to dissolve Parliament unless a motion of no confidence is passed AND after a 14 day cooling off period nobody else can form a government. Hopefully, it will be repealed a soon as possible in the next Parliament. Two thirds majorities are so unBritish.



    Well that too, but if a minority Tory government holds its hands up and says it isn't going to govern any longer, what parties are going to vote against the motion to dissolve Parliament?
    Any party behind in the polls would be my guess.

  • Jints
    Jints Posts: 3,495
    UKIP's support has dipped a bit but is solid enough to ensure that there won't be a Tory government.

    I predict Labour as the largest party (but only just) in a minority coalition with the LibDems. Whether it survives or not really depends on the SNP. EM will not do a deal with the SNP, would be political suicide a la Clegg and tuition fees. However, he can't stop them voting for a Labour Queen Speech and budget.
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,627

    It's quite refreshing to have had a good political debate on here that hasn't gotten too heated, proves we are not all complete morons :wink:

    I reserve the right to be a complete moron.

  • pettgra
    pettgra Posts: 1,572
    It will all be over soon and then we can all look forward to the Eurovision song contest!
  • Chizz
    Chizz Posts: 28,341
    Fiiish said:

    I think feasibly speaking unless some kind of supply & confidence agreement is obtained in advance, only the largest party can realistically form a minority government.

    I don't agree with this bit. It's perfectly possibly for the second-largest party to form a minority government. This is, in fact, one of the (less likely) options that Gordon Brown considered after the last election. The supporters of the larger party would, of course, bleat that it's unconstitutional. But, the last (current) coalition could be described in the same way, as it ignores the second-largest party, but includes the third-largest. So, "feasibly speaking", it is perfectly within the bounds of possibility for a party other than the largest party to form a minority government.
    Fiiish said:

    ... a minority government calling a snap election because it has lost the ability to govern effectively...

    This can't happen any more as the Royal Prerogative (which is what this type of snap election was based on) is no longer constitutional for the dissolution of a Parliament. This is the first election that is impacted by the Fixed Term Parliament Act and it's already causing constitutional questions. And it's not due to have any kind of review until after the *next* election, due on 7 May 2020.


  • Chizz
    Chizz Posts: 28,341
    Jints said:

    UKIP's support has dipped a bit but is solid enough to ensure that there won't be a Tory government.

    I predict Labour as the largest party (but only just) in a minority coalition with the LibDems. Whether it survives or not really depends on the SNP. EM will not do a deal with the SNP, would be political suicide a la Clegg and tuition fees. However, he can't stop them voting for a Labour Queen Speech and budget.

    What? Are you saying that Ukip will take tens of seats from the Tories?

  • kentaddick
    kentaddick Posts: 18,729
    i'd honestly be gobsmacked if ukip even maintain the number of seats that they currently have. 2.
  • Bedsaddick
    Bedsaddick Posts: 24,757
    Chizz said:

    Jints said:

    UKIP's support has dipped a bit but is solid enough to ensure that there won't be a Tory government.

    I predict Labour as the largest party (but only just) in a minority coalition with the LibDems. Whether it survives or not really depends on the SNP. EM will not do a deal with the SNP, would be political suicide a la Clegg and tuition fees. However, he can't stop them voting for a Labour Queen Speech and budget.

    What? Are you saying that Ukip will take tens of seats from the Tories?

    They won't take many , if any but they will take Conservative votes away possible letting Labour in , in marginal seats.