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Can We Make The Playoffs?

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  • stonemuse
    stonemuse Posts: 34,067
    Interesting looking at the tables, only two clubs lost less than us, only two clubs conceded less than us, and a goal difference that belongs in the top six.
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,773
    Rob7Lee said:

    If we need roughly a points tally of 75 and we are 36 points short with 19 games to go (think that's right) then to push into the play off's needs roughly 2 points a game which is automatic promotion form.

    Chances of that are almost zero in my view. It relies on being better than 6 or 7 teams above us or around us, looking at the fixtures my predictions are with points;

    Fleetwood 3
    AFC W 1
    Oldham 3
    Oxford 0
    Rochdale 0
    Bury 1
    Shrewsbury 1
    Northampton 3
    Scunthorpe 0
    Wallsall 1
    Bradford 1
    Sheff U 0
    MKD 1
    Peterborough 0
    Southend 3
    Coventry 3
    Gillingham 1
    Chesterfield 3
    Swindon 1

    26 points plus 39 = 65 - 10+ short of the play off's, maybe 9th or 10th.

    Of course mathematically it's possible, but then for ages last season it was mathematically possible not to get relegated but we never believed it from about Feb onwards.

    More of a worry for me is the summer, if we carry on the same path with signings, managers etc then next season is likely to be a relegation battle.

    So if we manage to beat Oxford, Bury, MKD and Walsall at home and Shrewsbury away - not massive asks - we would have an aditional 11 points!
  • PopIcon
    PopIcon Posts: 5,970
    Fleetwood 1
    AFC W 3
    Oldham 3
    Oxford 3
    Rochdale 1
    Bury 3
    Shrewsbury 3
    Northampton 3
    Scunthorpe 0
    Wallsall 3
    Bradford 0
    Sheff U 0
    MKD 1
    Peterborough 0
    Southend 3
    Coventry 3
    Gillingham 3
    Chesterfield 3
    Swindon 3

    I've got us picking up bang on 39, which should see us scrape in to the play offs. Realistically this is very unlikely.
  • sadiejane1981
    sadiejane1981 Posts: 9,012
    No
  • charltonkeston
    charltonkeston Posts: 7,376
    Scoham said:

    MartinCAFC said:

    Alwaysneil said:

    Whose kool aid is everyone drinking here and why didn't I get any?

    Despite the media frenzy supporting the decisions made (see Robinsons repeat perfoamace of frustraion) this window has been shit.

    We have again a super thin squad and although some are coming back from the table soon more will join.

    We have lost talent and have improved the balance of the team but for how long?

    I expect that we will find out later that Robinson has been instructed to make sure we are mid table in league 1.

    That right. Mid table in league 1, welcome to the regime. 3rd division mediocrity is the new success metric.

    Is it really a super thin squad though? Have a look at the squad thread, we have 23 players available who have played this season and will be 24 once the new Arsenal lad plays.

    Jose Mourinho likes to have 23 outfield players. If 23 outfield players is good enough for Jose Mourinho it should be good enough for anyone. Granted I accept there's room for another player like Reeves so we're probably a player light but I disagree we have a super thin squad. Edit - Premier League squad sizes are 25, so how many more players do we need?

    It'd actually be interesting to see how our squad of 24 compares to the rest of the league. All I know is it's improved significantly since Bury away back in August.
    No we don't.

    Two goalkeepers that have both done well this season. You can bring in GK on an emergency loan if needed so that's not an issue.

    Three full backs with Konsa covering Solly. Should have one more but we had the same when we won League One with Hughes or the left backs covering Solly.

    Centre backs we are well covered.

    Wingers we now have four depending how you see Dasilva.

    Six CMs, though we're missing an attacking midfielder/number 10 which we know KR wanted.

    Four strikers but KR only starts one at a time.

    That's 24 players, just over 2 for each position. If anyone thinks we're going to have a squad of 30 senior they're never going to think we have enough.

    The question is whether the squad is good enough not whether it's big enough. You could argue there aren't enough experienced, proven players there. Is that what some mean when they say the squad is too small?
    I would say super thin on quality to be able to make a push for promotion.
    Its one thing not losing games, (as in drawing them), but its a lot more difficult to set out to win week in week out.
    When we miss out on the play-offs but have fewer defeats than those teams above I fully expect a positive spin put the failure of this season by Katy and Robo.
    And more of the same mediocrity next season.
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,773
    If we don't make the play offs there would be no other conclusion than failure. I think we do have the qulaity to go on a run - and that is a run of victories. But having the qulaity and doing it are too seperate things. It's a shame as despite having qulaity (for this crap league), a couple more signings would have made this more likely.
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 44,962

    Everybody is counting on their fingers exactly how many points we'll need.

    In reality, all we need is one point (or better GD) than the team which otherwise will finish the season in 6th place.
    As it stands that team is Rochdale, who we play in a fortnight.

    If results in the next few weeks are fairly favourable, there's no reason why we can't be in touching distance of them by the time that game is played.
    We know what we have to do that day.

    We also have a game in hand on all the other teams between us and Rochdale.

    Meanwhile, this weekend:
    Charlton v Fleetwood
    Rochdale v Bristol Rovers
    Southend v Scunthorpe
    Plus some tricky fixtures for other top half teams.

    The week after:
    AFC Wimbledon v Charlton
    Bristol Rovers v Bradford
    Fleetwood v Rochdale
    Millwall v Southend
    Posh v Sheff Utd

    See what I mean? There has to be dropped points by the teams above us.
    But of course none of it matters if Charlton don't pick up points.



  • Rufus_Ambition
    Rufus_Ambition Posts: 604
    I think we'll give it a go but fall short.

    BUT if we do make the play-offs this season, I think we'll get to the final and probably win it.
  • MuttleyCAFC
    MuttleyCAFC Posts: 47,773
    We are at a stage where things have to start happening - i.e. we get wins not draws or defeats - it is amazing when you put a few wins together how different things look - even if it is just three wins!
  • iainambler
    iainambler Posts: 964
    Whilst it's mathematically (and technically) possible to get into the playoffs, it requires a remarkable turn-around in form. To reach the top end of the table, there needs to be consistent performance at a level that's better than the average. And consistent means from the very start of the season, not half way through.

    To contemplate a playoff place at this stage of the season will require top-end performances in *every* game going forward. That's a huge ask and is probably beyond what is reasonably expected. If we had a team that had a high proportion of Championship standard players then we would probably be able to punch above our weight.

    I think we will end up at or slightly above mid-table at the end of the season.

    If we want to get back to the Championship, we need to have a squad with a lot of Championship quality to do it. That means spending money wisely. With Roland's tight purse strings, that's not bloody likely.

    ROLAND OUT!!!!

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  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,303
    our last 5 results are play off form, out of 5 drawn 2 won 3.

    19 matches to play i would guess we need 12 wins minimum and 2 or 3 draws
  • Dansk_Red
    Dansk_Red Posts: 5,730
    edited February 2017
    Millwall helped the cause by playing out a 0-0 draw at home to Walsall last night.
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,065
    Rufus_Ambition said:

    I think we'll give it a go but fall short.

    BUT if we do make the play-offs this season, I think we'll get to the final and probably win it.

    Agreed, unless we're against Millwall, in which case we won't.
  • ForeverAddickted
    ForeverAddickted Posts: 94,738
    Covered End said:

    Rufus_Ambition said:

    I think we'll give it a go but fall short.

    BUT if we do make the play-offs this season, I think we'll get to the final and probably win it.

    Agreed, unless we're against Millwall, in which case we won't.
    What a way to finally beat them though
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,065
    ForeverAddickted said:

    Covered End said:

    Rufus_Ambition said:

    I think we'll give it a go but fall short.

    BUT if we do make the play-offs this season, I think we'll get to the final and probably win it.

    Agreed, unless we're against Millwall, in which case we won't.
    What a way to finally beat them though
    Wake up man :wink:
  • Henry Irving
    Henry Irving Posts: 85,290
    A lot depends on the new signings all working.

    We need a lot of things to go right for but the gap isn't huge and this league ain't great.

    Play-offs here we come.
  • Wheresmeticket
    Wheresmeticket Posts: 17,304
    edited February 2017
    Having read this thread all the way through and with all due consideration I feel it incumbent on me to say.

    ARE YOU FUCKING JOKING?

    There's something dogged about a Charlton fan. From the Bovril and blankets to the yearly recurrence of optimism. It would be sweet if it wasn't like a loved but aged dog trying to stagger to its feet one last time.

    I'm out.
  • JonnyK
    JonnyK Posts: 830
    Remember Barnsley - so it's a possibility and players coming back from injury too!
  • SOTF
    SOTF Posts: 1,149
    I'm not so sure about whether we'll make it or not, being a Charlton fan for so long I tend to find optimism is a difficult to muster.

    However, I know for a fact that there's not a single Charlton player that doesn't believe we can get promoted. The mood within the squad is that we have a top 3 team and that every match we should be looking to take 3 points from.

    Despite finding him difficult to warm to, Karl Robinson deserves a lot of credit for installing that mentality.
  • superdulvertonred
    superdulvertonred Posts: 1,147
    Beating Millwall at Wembley think it could happen what a season it would have been them despite the best efforts of RD to mess it all up!..... well we all have to dream.

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  • jonseventyfive
    jonseventyfive Posts: 3,363
    JonnyK said:

    Remember Barnsley - so it's a possibility and players coming back from injury too!

    This is what I've thought for some time, but then I shouldn't be surprised as I'm also called Jon k.
  • palarsehater
    palarsehater Posts: 12,303
    palarsehater said:

    very hard to predict now, our next 6 are

    Fleetwood
    AFC W
    Oldham
    Oxford
    Rochdale
    Bury

    12 points out of them then were well on the road anything less, will be a mid table and august we go again.

    there we go just win 3 out of the remaining 4 and draw one and well be still for them i think.
  • SDAddick
    SDAddick Posts: 14,477
    edited February 2017
    We're six points off playoffs. We have a game in hand on many teams. I would argue we have a better 18 than any of the clubs we're chasing. That's not to say we will make the playoffs, but it is to say that we certainly still can.
  • Rob7Lee
    Rob7Lee Posts: 9,617
    The problem lies not just in games to play or the points gap. A bigger issue is the number of teams above us. They cannot lose every game as often play each other. For instance tomorrow: Oxford v Southend. Over the next few weeks, Millwall v Peterborough, Oxford v Bristol, Peterborough v Rochdale and so on.

    We have a couple of important games then the majority after are teams already below us so very few '6 pointers' as they say. Although towards the end we could be playing teams fighting to stay in the division.

    Therefore not only do we need to start winning but also those 7/8 teams above us results need to go our way.

    The last day could prove interesting as a number in or around the play offs play each other. Let's hope Swindon are down by then!

    It's going to be tuff!! Hence why on balance I think we'll come up short.
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,658
    I think it's gone now. Those two late goals have done for us.
  • Covered End
    Covered End Posts: 52,065
    We're in the same position we were 2 games ago. Still 6 behind Rochdale, but 2 less games left.

    If we start winning instead of drawing, we'll definitely be up there.

    But will we start winning ?
  • Airman Brown
    Airman Brown Posts: 15,754
    edited February 2017
    Rob7Lee said:

    The problem lies not just in games to play or the points gap. A bigger issue is the number of teams above us. They cannot lose every game as often play each other. For instance tomorrow: Oxford v Southend. Over the next few weeks, Millwall v Peterborough, Oxford v Bristol, Peterborough v Rochdale and so on.

    We have a couple of important games then the majority after are teams already below us so very few '6 pointers' as they say. Although towards the end we could be playing teams fighting to stay in the division.

    Therefore not only do we need to start winning but also those 7/8 teams above us results need to go our way.

    The last day could prove interesting as a number in or around the play offs play each other. Let's hope Swindon are down by then!

    It's going to be tuff!! Hence why on balance I think we'll come up short.

    I don't think this matters, from a maths point of view. They can't all win them either and we don't need them to lose. Draws are good.
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,658
    The bottom line is that the club failed to land a proven Goalscorer last month. We've struggled all season to score goals and Big Mac is not prolific. We are starting to get into positions where winning is possible but we can't land the killer second blow. Playoffs are now well out of reach.
  • Rob7Lee
    Rob7Lee Posts: 9,617
    edited February 2017
    Airman Brown said:

    Rob7Lee said:

    The problem lies not just in games to play or the points gap. A bigger issue is the number of teams above us. They cannot lose every game as often play each other. For instance tomorrow: Oxford v Southend. Over the next few weeks, Millwall v Peterborough, Oxford v Bristol, Peterborough v Rochdale and so on.

    We have a couple of important games then the majority after are teams already below us so very few '6 pointers' as they say. Although towards the end we could be playing teams fighting to stay in the division.

    Therefore not only do we need to start winning but also those 7/8 teams above us results need to go our way.

    The last day could prove interesting as a number in or around the play offs play each other. Let's hope Swindon are down by then!

    It's going to be tuff!! Hence why on balance I think we'll come up short.

    I don't think this matters, from a maths point of view. They can't all win them either and we don't need them to lose. Draws are good.
    Indeed hence results needing to go our way.
  • Horsfield9
    Horsfield9 Posts: 3,082
    While it's obviously still possible, it still requires us to go on a winning run of 3or 4 consecutive wins, which we've failed to do all season.

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