The General Election - June 8th 2017
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I posted this earlier - I have been researching the polling companies and their methodologies a bit.MuttleyCAFC said:I have been saying all day that I am sure Labour will lose - and I still think they will - but I do think there is a possibility they are going to do some damage and there could even be a hung parliament. Whilst I am unimportant, it doesn't do to promote the need to vote in people who want to vote differently to you.
What I base this on could be total nonsense and I am not sure it isn't, but the company Survation claimed that they had actually predicted the last election in a poll with a different methodology than the others and their own, but that the results were so out of step with all the other polls that they decided not to publish. Now that sounds a bit convenient, and we have to be suspicious.
The modelling for this poll they never published is the same as what they have used for their published polls in this election - or so they claim. These are the polls showing the greatest closing of the gap which ended at only 1% yesterday. There is a suggestion with some factors they think are relevant, that this could even be a small Labour lead as they think they may have understated the student vote slightly. The problem with polls is once you start the methodology, you can't change it because it doesn't look right.
We shall see - it woud be a shock but will be interesting. Are Survation the new polling kings or a load of bullsh*tters? probably the latter
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Amber Rudd apparently in serious trouble in Hastings.5
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The Scottish referendum turn out was an interesting development in modern politics. I am interested to see the turn out this time.
Will there be a 'Brenda' factor?0 -
Theresa, playing with politics.0
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Humor me here:
Lab/SNP/Lib Dem coalition gets you to 314 IF Exit Polls hold true (and I can't imagine there won't be at least a 5 seat margin of error). Add Green seat and you get 315. Is there a way for them to form a Government with the 22 others? Apologies for my nativity.0 -
Doubt it.SDAddick said:Humor me here:
Lab/SNP/Lib Dem coalition gets you to 314 IF Exit Polls hold true (and I can't imagine there won't be at least a 5 seat margin of error). Add Green seat and you get 315. Is there a way for them to form a Government with the 22 others? Apologies for my nativity.1 -
Tories could be on less and SNP on more....1
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Plyd Cymru predicted 3 to add to that - but their are 18 others - basically Northern Ireland who are more conservative so on exit poll Tories could scrape into power with a wafer thin coalition. I can't seeing it lasting more than a year if so. But still early days.1
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Bet she don't lob a bench through a pub window like we did....carly burn said:Amber Rudd apparently in serious trouble in Hastings.
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You could see members of the SNP really didn't want this election.
Just got their noses in the trough of the Westminster gravy train and the rug's already been pulled from under them!
Ha.0 - Sponsored links:
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Labour activists saying that the Exit Poll is unbelievable (literally)
I still think a Tory majority0 -
Theresa May said brexit negotiations start in 11 days. She said it repeatedly.
We want to get our democracy and sovereignty back and the EU has bloody sabotaged Theresa election. This result is Merkels fault clearly.2 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40209087SDAddick said:Humor me here:
Lab/SNP/Lib Dem coalition gets you to 314 IF Exit Polls hold true (and I can't imagine there won't be at least a 5 seat margin of error). Add Green seat and you get 315. Is there a way for them to form a Government with the 22 others? Apologies for my nativity.1 -
No idea @SDAddick but with baby Jesus in the cradle, who knows!!!SDAddick said:Humor me here:
Lab/SNP/Lib Dem coalition gets you to 314 IF Exit Polls hold true (and I can't imagine there won't be at least a 5 seat margin of error). Add Green seat and you get 315. Is there a way for them to form a Government with the 22 others? Apologies for my nativity.
Hmmm...hang on...JC initials looking good here!!
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Has the UKIP vote gone to Labour?0
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Much appreciated.Scoham said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40209087SDAddick said:Humor me here:
Lab/SNP/Lib Dem coalition gets you to 314 IF Exit Polls hold true (and I can't imagine there won't be at least a 5 seat margin of error). Add Green seat and you get 315. Is there a way for them to form a Government with the 22 others? Apologies for my nativity.
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Why are the BBC chatting with graphics?
I want to watch Northerners running around frantically carrying boxes.6 -
If the exit polls are to be believed we have gone from someone who was pro remain pretending to be pro brexit to a hung parliament with the opposition party leader being pro brexit pretending to be pro remain.MuttleyCAFC said:
It will stabilise as the markets are scared of a hard Brexit - this makes it less likely!Huskaris said:Pound down 2% already.
Then again I guess Labour now have the right to regurgitate the Leave campaign's responses to the currency crash after Brexit.1 -
cha·ris·macarly burn said:
I don't think Corbyn has had to do much at all. If Labour could have found a charasmatic leading candidate they would have strolled thisblackpool72 said:May thought Corbyn was so unelectable that she called an election.
So did I to be fair.
Over the last few weeks Corbyn has absolutely proved her wrong.
She is history
kəˈrizmə/
noun
noun: charisma; plural noun: charismata
1.
compelling attractiveness or charm that can inspire devotion in others.
Just because you don't get it doesn't mean he doesn't have Charisma. The Labour Party membership voted overwhlemingly for him... twice... and now, despite all the smears, despite almost no support from withing his party, and despite being written off as a beardy political no-mark, he's won large numbers of people over in the last few weeks
This surge in support isn't despite him, it because of him and the vision of the country he is selling.15 -
If the Tories fail to get the 326 majority, the 27 EU member states will be pissing themselves with laughter.....and it will serve May, Davis and especially that massive C Rees Mogg right7
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No more smug DUP people please!!
Northerners running and carrying boxes.2 -
Best post of this whole thread @Exiled_Addick0
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UK: The Ipsos exit poll has 76 seats too close to call. CON (ECR) majority possible. #GE2017
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) June 8, 20171 -
They need to roll out the Benny Hill theme when they're running around like mad like that.2
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Sunderland should have this in the bag0
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C_A_F_C said:
UK: The Ipsos exit poll has 76 seats too close to call. CON (ECR) majority possible. #GE2017
— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) June 8, 2017
IPSOS need to get back a bit of credibility0 -
Armed police!0
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Newcastle win!3
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If you look at the average of the polls and how they have progressed over time. The initial increase in support from Labour seems to have largely come at the expense of UKIP and Lib Dems, while Cons support stayed steady. It only in more recrnt weeks that people seem to have been switching allegiance from Conservative to Labour, so I think Labour may have taken votes from everyone.Red_in_SE8 said:Has the UKIP vote gone to Labour?
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