The General Election - June 8th 2017
Comments
-
It's actually surprising how few people you need to ask for a statistically accurate prediction.Karim_myBagheri said:Only 30,000 gets asked for that exit poll? It leaves a huge scope for error
5 -
Gonna stick my neck out and comment on something I probably shouldn't here. From years of watching US elections, don't just watch the early margins, look at the turnout (and I know I'm preaching to the choir here). Turnout in early reporting precincts can be a better indicator given that neither of these were considered up for grabs.Callumcafc said:Labour vote share to 65%. Up 10%.
Worse for Labour than exit poll said.
Exit poll predicted 75/15, result was 65/25.
Just my two cents.4 -
FFS not another one. What is hard to grasp about the exit poll?Karim_myBagheri said:Only 30,000 gets asked for that exit poll? It leaves a huge scope for error
0 -
Swing to Labour in Remain voting Newcastle Central
Swing to Conservatives in Leave voting Houghton & Sunderland South2 -
Given the 70 odd seats that are being listed as too close to call (some of which really don't look that close at all), I think a hung Parliament is highly unlikely. The question is whether the shy tory effect is going to be big enough to make a significant difference to the Tory majority.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373
I'm just going to enjoy the pundits trying to work out WTF is going on for the next few hours.3 -
Neil Hamilton is a bellend4
-
Exit poll might be wrong or possibly right....0
-
The assumption that UKIP voters go to the Tories I think is flawed. They took plenty of votes of labour last time round. It's possible those people are going back to Labour.6
-
Before we go any further, can we just check that everyone took their own Sharpie pen into the ballot box with them? Can't trust those at the count with just pencil marks you know...2
-
The exit poll is just on the 100 or so most marginal seats and extrapolated across the rest.0
- Sponsored links:
-
I'm watching itv because bless, they have a man just roaming around a set full of people sat at desks. It's such an odd combination of old school and new school. The coverage isn't great but I just enjoy this Mr. Rogers-esque journey.0
-
Do Labour have Russell Slade as manager?newyorkaddick said:Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
5 -
Would people who voted for such a pro Brexit party go back to such a soft (comparatively) Brexit option in Labour?cantersaddick said:The assumption that UKIP voters go to the Tories I think is flawed. They took plenty of votes of labour last time round. It's possible those people are going back to Labour.
Just all goes to show Brexit is a fucking farce.2 -
Also the exit poll doesn't include postal votes.
Not sure if this is a real quote from Dimbleby, but made me laugh anyway.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DB1HLS9XoAANoHl.jpg1 -
Didn't Abbott resign today?AFKABartram said:Absolutely no way of dismissing the popularity on the ground for Corbyn (nor the ineffectiveness of May / Tory campaign).
Do generally wonder if a lot of those people voting for Corbyn don't really have a clue what they are actually voting for because a socialist labour government (with a top table governance of Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott) doesn't feel very 2017 to me.
And a hung parliament is a disaster for everyone imo0 -
The numbers are now becoming complex.
Still can't see the Tory majority that justifies this election.0 -
Lots of new moving parts which past trends can't allow for - could work both ways though.Callumcafc said:
It's actually surprising how few people you need to ask for a statistically accurate prediction.Karim_myBagheri said:Only 30,000 gets asked for that exit poll? It leaves a huge scope for error
0 -
You've got to remember your talking to a Tory, I can think of worse things than nabbing the UKIP vote..SELR_addicks said:
If the 'UKIP vote going to the Conservatives' holds up, it's going to be a very bad night.LuckyReds said:
I'd take that to be quite honest.SELR_addicks said:Exit poll is wrong but it won't be enough to save Theresa May.
Conservative majority but smaller than it was.
Who the fuck puts fox hunting in the manifesto in 2017? Someone with their head up their ass, and expecting a stroll in the park - that's who.
Hopefully the country is more like Newcastle than Sunderland.
Jokes aside, I have no faith in May as a leader; a reduction in the Tory majority will finally get her bundled in a taxi and out of the picture. I think she wants to see herself as a Thatcher figure, something that she's neither capable of, nor does the country want.
I'd gladly see the Tories scrape through, with a thorough embarrassment for May.0 -
Yes. For many people UKIP was don't an anti establishment option that showed their disaffection with the system. Those people come from all party alliegences.DamoNorthStand said:
Would people who voted for such a pro Brexit party go back to such a soft (comparatively) Brexit option in Labour?cantersaddick said:The assumption that UKIP voters go to the Tories I think is flawed. They took plenty of votes of labour last time round. It's possible those people are going back to Labour.
Just all goes to show Brexit is a fucking farce.1 - Sponsored links:
-
None of the pundits really have a clue - no change there then.
Theresa probably not feeling too confident....
How have the foxes voted?2 -
Replaced by Lyn Brown as shadow Home Secretary.EastTerrace said:
Didn't Abbott resign today?AFKABartram said:Absolutely no way of dismissing the popularity on the ground for Corbyn (nor the ineffectiveness of May / Tory campaign).
Do generally wonder if a lot of those people voting for Corbyn don't really have a clue what they are actually voting for because a socialist labour government (with a top table governance of Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott) doesn't feel very 2017 to me.
And a hung parliament is a disaster for everyone imo0 -
-
7 -
Needs to move her feet. Get to the pitch of the ball. Playing with her bat too far from her body.Friend Or Defoe said:3 -
Where is Michael Gove when you need him?4
-
You never need him!seth plum said:Where is Michael Gove when you need him?
11 -
BoJo gone from 25/1 to 5/1 to be next PM1
-
Agree. But I think it is also the case a lot of people voted for Brexit who did not have a clue what they were voting for.AFKABartram said:Absolutely no way of dismissing the popularity on the ground for Corbyn (nor the ineffectiveness of May / Tory campaign).
Do generally wonder if a lot of those people voting for Corbyn don't really have a clue what they are actually voting for because a socialist labour government (with a top table governance of Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott) doesn't feel very 2017 to me.
And a hung parliament is a disaster for everyone imo
2 -
newyorkaddick said:
Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
0
