The General Election - June 8th 2017
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C'mon ref just blow the fecking whistle now!3
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Can we talk about how much I love The Bugle? So, so much it should be illegal.Callumcafc said:0 -
100%. This entire campaign has been a successively more powerful slaps on my own forehead as a Conservative voter.LuckyReds said:
I'd take that to be quite honest.SELR_addicks said:Exit poll is wrong but it won't be enough to save Theresa May.
Conservative majority but smaller than it was.
Who the fuck puts fox hunting in the manifesto in 2017? Someone with their head up their ass, and expecting a stroll in the park - that's who.3 -
I think that's a fair point there, mate.Red_in_SE8 said:
Agree. But I think it is also the case a lot of people voted for Brexit who did not have a clue what they were voting for.AFKABartram said:Absolutely no way of dismissing the popularity on the ground for Corbyn (nor the ineffectiveness of May / Tory campaign).
Do generally wonder if a lot of those people voting for Corbyn don't really have a clue what they are actually voting for because a socialist labour government (with a top table governance of Corbyn, McDonnell and Abbott) doesn't feel very 2017 to me.
And a hung parliament is a disaster for everyone imo
It clearly would work both ways.0 -
John Curtice is a legend it must be said.2
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Taken her eye off the ball too.cantersaddick said:
Needs to move her feet. Get to the pitch of the ball. Playing with her bat too far from her body.Friend Or Defoe said:
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Rob7Lee said:newyorkaddick said:
Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?6 -
Nick Clegg just spent 10 minutes monologueing on itv. What did we ever see in him?1
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Would lurve Alex Salmond to lose his seat1
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Good questions.NapaAddick said:Can I ask a question?
In the early 90s it seemed (at least from here in the USA) that the purpose of the EU was simply centered around four things...
1. Ease of movement for citizens across borders
2. Single currency in order to make investments and money movement more efficient
3. Unify Europe fiscally so peace was more attractive than war, in the future
4. Set budget deficit limits so everyone played fair.
Now.... it seems from what we see here in the news the last several years, like the EU is trying to control everything socially as well, that they want to dominate the financial direction of each country and essentially supplant local government authority in almost every minor matter... and on top of all that... are NOT enforcing the fiscal limits they said they would.
Is this summary accurate? Partially accurate? Way off base?
Thanks.
I can understand why you might think that from afar. But living in the literal heart of Europe, I don't recognize your description.
It's always an interesting test to ask in both the U.K. and CZ, what somebody thinks are the three most pressing issues in their personal lives that could be improved by political action. The answers are invariably things that remain entirely in the gift of national politicians to fix.
It is definitely a live issue, the balance between national determinism and collective European solidarity. But if you imagine that there is some kind of authoritarian EU body that dictates how we all live, I have a question for you:
What nationality do you imagine these apparatchiks to be ?
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No. This is Charlton Life. Save your love for trains.SDAddick said:
Can we talk about how much I love The Bugle? So, so much it should be illegal.Callumcafc said:3 -
Would be glad with the projected SNP results; quite a thorough rejection IMO.0
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Bugle is illegal mate.SDAddick said:
Can we talk about how much I love The Bugle? So, so much it should be illegal.Callumcafc said:2 -
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.colthe3rd said:Rob7Lee said:newyorkaddick said:Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?0 -
Blimey. The 2001 - 2010 ones are ridiculous.colthe3rd said:Rob7Lee said:newyorkaddick said:Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?0 -
So judging by 2015 when they underestimated the Tory seats, the Torys may still come away with a majority or at least work with the DUP.colthe3rd said:Rob7Lee said:newyorkaddick said:Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?0 -
Way off? Hi Diane!cantersaddick said:
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.colthe3rd said:Rob7Lee said:newyorkaddick said:Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?4 -
We are waiting to see if the Shy Tory factor is in play.
And as we confirmed earlier, shy Tories are apparently grown men who get upset when strangers on the internet quote food bank statistics.
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It is surprising and interesting that over recent years they have been fairly accurate. Still something I don't quite understand and I guess maths is involved which is something I've really never been very good at.Callumcafc said:
It's actually surprising how few people you need to ask for a statistically accurate prediction.Karim_myBagheri said:Only 30,000 gets asked for that exit poll? It leaves a huge scope for error
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Well a 14 seat difference is pretty large. More than enough to make a difference last time and again this time... could easily be significant. The exit poll people themselves have said on the BBC tonight that the seats figures could be 20 out either way for both Labour and con.colthe3rd said:
Way off? Hi Diane!cantersaddick said:
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.colthe3rd said:Rob7Lee said:newyorkaddick said:Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
I'm actually a data analyst so the Diane comment is more of an insult than you Think!
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Exit Poll predicts 2% swing to Labour nationally apparently
Which would give Tories 3% lead nationally.0 -
I was joking and yes of course it does make a difference in terms of overall majority. However it's still a pretty damn good estimate and if it's within that sort of range this time then it's a massive cock up from May and the Tories.cantersaddick said:
Well a 14 seat difference is pretty large. More than enough to make a difference last time and again this time... could easily be significant. The exit poll people themselves have said on the BBC tonight that the seats figures could be 20 out either way for both Labour and con.colthe3rd said:
Way off? Hi Diane!cantersaddick said:
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.colthe3rd said:Rob7Lee said:newyorkaddick said:Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?2 -
Cons to get these Welsh seats? Really?0
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What where the Brexit exit poll results?0
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Nerd*cantersaddick said:
Well a 14 seat difference is pretty large. More than enough to make a difference last time and again this time... could easily be significant. The exit poll people themselves have said on the BBC tonight that the seats figures could be 20 out either way for both Labour and con.colthe3rd said:
Way off? Hi Diane!cantersaddick said:
They are nearly always bang on in terms of the total % vote. But often way off when it comes to the number of seats. Last time round predicted 316 con and they got 330.colthe3rd said:Rob7Lee said:newyorkaddick said:Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
I'm actually a data analyst so the Diane comment is more of an insult than you Think!
*He says jealous because he's not good enough at maths to be a statistician.3 -
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We'll see but take your point, 1992 was way out, 2015 was out, I'd assume 25% postal vote is high compared to previous years, 2015 was around 16% and I guess earlier years considerably less than that. A very high proportion of postal voters return their paper (over 85%) whereas registered to vote at the polls is considerably lower.colthe3rd said:Rob7Lee said:newyorkaddick said:Can't see Labour throwing away a 2-0 lead
I don't believe the exit poll yet no, 30k people it's based on isn't it? A quarter of the votes are postal.....colthe3rd said:
You're desperate to not believe the exit poll. Did you put your fingers in your ears when they explained the reason behind the Newcastle forecast?Rob7Lee said:First result in, exit poll was way out........ not such a large Labour majority as they expected.
Yeah sod those mathematicians, 30k is too few, what the hell do they know?
I'll have a wager with you that the poll is wrong, it's just the amount and which way that we'll see.
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Canters, I missed your edit. I was a Data Analyst previously but moved into something where I could be a bit more accurate with numbers. ;-)1
