The Takeover Thread - Duchatelet Finally Sells (Jan 2020)
Comments
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This "haircut" laugh is doing me head in....:(NapaAddick said:I have an idea....
If RD sells for less than £55.6M, I will PayPal someone here who knows Henry and Harry (or one of them) £25. That should pay (hopefully) for a couple of beers at some CAFC match.
If...
1. He does not sell by season's end because he is unwilling to take a haircut, or
2. If he sells for £55.6M or more, or
3. He only sells part of the club and keeps the debt or an asset because he won't take a haircut
Then I win and they can PayPal me £25.
This makes a game of it and not something which seems to be frustrating me, them and everyone else. And we can stop going over it and wait til the fat Meire sings.3 -
I don’t think the club will sell for much more than £30m-£35m at an absolute maximum. You’re ultimately buying little more than potential and location at this point, whatever he values the valley at and sparrows obviously added too.
You can hold on to your money as I won’t take the bet, anyone else who wants to is more than welcome. Free £25
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He's a yank. Don't forget they voted for Trump & think that owning a machine gun keeps you safer than owning a handgun.cafc_harry said:Unless the £35m he invested has made the club £35m more valuable then no it’s not worth even close to that. Don’t get how you’re still struggling with this.
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Tired and just catching up. Are we buying Messi for £100m? That's an absolute steal tbf10
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You assume I voted for Trump.golfaddick said:
He's a yank. Don't forget they voted for Trump & think that owning a machine gun keeps you safer than owning a handgun.cafc_harry said:Unless the £35m he invested has made the club £35m more valuable then no it’s not worth even close to that. Don’t get how you’re still struggling with this.
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I find it best not to assume anything.NapaAddick said:
You assume I voted for Trump.golfaddick said:
He's a yank. Don't forget they voted for Trump & think that owning a machine gun keeps you safer than owning a handgun.cafc_harry said:Unless the £35m he invested has made the club £35m more valuable then no it’s not worth even close to that. Don’t get how you’re still struggling with this.
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Good, cuz someone will have to putt up the money to get us away from Rolland. I am sure we can iron out the differences and find out from some birdie what the price is... oh wait, sorry, was doing the pun thing again....golfaddick said:
I find it best not to assume anything.NapaAddick said:
You assume I voted for Trump.golfaddick said:
He's a yank. Don't forget they voted for Trump & think that owning a machine gun keeps you safer than owning a handgun.cafc_harry said:Unless the £35m he invested has made the club £35m more valuable then no it’s not worth even close to that. Don’t get how you’re still struggling with this.
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we on then @NapaAddick ?0
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Yeah, sure. £25 via PayPal.Rob7Lee said:we on then @NapaAddick ?
Agree with your counteroffer on #3. We agree already on #2. Can agree that #1 is hard to nail down, so that would be a draw if it happens.
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He’s going to have to eat that figure if he wants outNapaAddick said:
Hate to break it to you Henry, but even if he walks away with the £55.6M, he still sells the club for more than 3x the purchase price of 2014, despite relegation. Same is true at £50M.Henry Irving said:The whole "enterprise value" is a red herring.
It has been explained numerous times to you in different ways by various people what he has spent yet you continue to double and sometimes triple count it.
You have convinced yourself the club is 1 worth £77m and 2 that he won't take less than that.
No evidence to the contrary will impact on your fixation on those concocted numbers so people makes jokes about it.
It's not meant to be nasty, maybe it is British thing but having tried logic and maths humour was all that was left.
A lot of your complaint against my idea is that he cannot and will not sell for more than what he bought the club for after relegating us, as if morally the gods won't allow it. Even if I was counting the equity twice, he still does that, in any scenario over £21.6M.
To believe that he will sell it for £20M (less than he bought it for, which by one account is 21.6M and another source shows 18.6M) and eat all that debt, clearing the books for the new owners, makes no sense. He will not eat £35.6M-38.6M of debt. No freaking way.2 - Sponsored links:
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You offered this silly bet before.NapaAddick said:I have an idea....
If RD sells for less than £55.6M, I will PayPal someone here who knows Henry and Harry (or one of them) £25. That should pay (hopefully) for a couple of beers at some CAFC match.
If...
1. He does not sell by season's end because he is unwilling to take a haircut, or
2. If he sells for £55.6M or more, or
3. He only sells part of the club and keeps the debt or an asset because he won't take a haircut
Then I win and they can PayPal me £25.
This makes a game of it and not something which seems to be frustrating me, them and everyone else. And we can stop going over it and wait til the fat Meire sings.
Then as now I said no.
You can't prove the sale price, it will be undisclosed.
But you'll then claim it was £77m anyway using your weird maths.
It's not a game, it's the future of the club.0 -
How did inkman get in the directors box?ricky_otto said:Looks like Jim Davidson has had a heavy Christmas.
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This is a better way to do the math. At some point, RD is going to see we are increasingly looking like league 1 fodder next season, with all the debt that implies. Without Katriens razor sharp negotiating skills, that means the debt is growing all the time he stays. Unless the buyer is a Charlton fan, there is no overriding need to 'buy Charlton', and no need to rush unless a rival bid arrives. So the onus is on RD. He is going to take a haircut, tye onlybquestion is how big.Callumcafc said:So RD won't eat £35m but no-one is going to pay him £55m.
Who will break first? Will it be the man who is losing more money the longer he waits or will it be the buyers who aren't?
See? No complicated numbers. No higher accountancy skills (of which I have none). Just a square look at the facts.6 -
Whatever. This whole convo would not have happened if you did not bring the £77.5M thing all back up the other day on this very thread... completely on your own. You have done that a couple of times now and then complain when I counter it. So hint... if you don't want to hear any more about it... stop bringing it up. The ball is in your court and has been for a while.Henry Irving said:
You offered this silly bet before.
Then as now I said no.
You can't prove the sale price, it will be undisclosed.
But you'll then claim it was £77m anyway using your weird maths.
It's not a game, it's the future of the club.1 -
Bloody hell, woke up and saw 41 new posts and I thought, wrongly, something must have happened!! Only to read that we are arguing about how much RD will sell the club for. It doesn't matter, it will be undisclosed, and RD will sell the club for somewhere between what he wants for it and how much any consortium is prepared to offer. The price will be negotiated and we will never know until the accounts for 17/18 or even 18/19 are published and even then we may not know the whole story. Can we just be happy he is looking to get out and see what transpires, arguing among ourselves is futile because we just don't know.....its the same as trying to answer "how long is a piece of string"......rant over.26
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In the end, you are likely right on every point.Redmidland said:Bloody hell, woke up and saw 41 new posts and I thought, wrongly, something must have happened!! Only to read that we are arguing about how much RD will sell the club for. It doesn't matter, it will be undisclosed, and RD will sell the club for somewhere between what he wants for it and how much any consortium is prepared to offer. The price will be negotiated and we will never know until the accounts for 17/18 or even 18/19 are published and even then we may not know the whole story. Can we just be happy he is looking to get out and see what transpires, arguing among ourselves is futile because we just don't know.....its the same as trying to answer "how long is a piece of string"......rant over.
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Oh fucking bore off with the break downs shite.6
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Stop being such a Meire. You need no encouragement from me to trot yet another set of made up figures and bizarre sums to "prove" he will sell for £77m.NapaAddick said:
Whatever. This whole convo would not have happened if you did not bring the £77.5M thing all back up the other day on this very thread... completely on your own. You have done that a couple of times now and then complain when I counter it. So hint... if you don't want to hear any more about it... stop bringing it up. The ball is in your court and has been for a while.Henry Irving said:
You offered this silly bet before.
Then as now I said no.
You can't prove the sale price, it will be undisclosed.
But you'll then claim it was £77m anyway using your weird maths.
It's not a game, it's the future of the club.
You get your leg pulled because you are so fixated on such a ridiculous number and back it up with such nonsense logic.
It's not £77m and never was although give it another season or two under RD and it will be.1 -
I agree wholeheartedly with this. Your last sentence though screams why those charges may continue to be in the club's best interests.Davidsmith said:What is best for Club is for everyone who supported Roland to go, having Murray dictate who the buyer is will potentially be a disaster .
It is time we had a clean sweep, all Loans removed and a fresh bunch of people given a clear run at turning Club's fortunes round.
The last 7 years have been a disaster and there is one common denominator, and who was advising Katrein and Roland anyway?
If one,two or even 6 other Directors are being difficult over charges in hope of getting right people then good on them.
Despite the schism between Murray and the rest, these are all to a man characters who have put their money where their mouth is in terms of loving the club.
I wouldn't be unhappy if they remained.9 -
Did an American run off with your missus or something?golfaddick said:
He's a yank. Don't forget they voted for Trump & think that owning a machine gun keeps you safer than owning a handgun.cafc_harry said:Unless the £35m he invested has made the club £35m more valuable then no it’s not worth even close to that. Don’t get how you’re still struggling with this.
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The purchasers will likely buy the club for around 30m, this will be quoted in the press as "Blah blah have bought Charlton for a fee of £30m". However this will just be the purchasers agreeing to take on 30m of the c.55m debt, so RD will infact lose c.25m. He will be able to say "I bought the club for 20m and sold it for 30m aren't I a great businessman". When infact he has made a loss of 25m.18
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Love the opening paragraph. Wish you'd said it a few pages back, might have saved Napa a few head scratching posts and the rest of us the sore foreheads from the repeated facepalms...Rob7Lee said:
You're not avoiding the point are you? We've just run up another £100m of debt due to poor transfer dealing - but heh - clubs worth another £100m more right by your calcs? Enterprise Value yer?NapaAddick said:So I am curious, what do YOU henry and harry, think this club will be sold for, including all debt? Pick a number you think will be more accurate than mine.
£20M? 30M?
Seriously, if you are back on planet earth now, football clubs (outside of the top 6) are notoriously difficult to value. Yes you have the 'asset' as in players, training ground, stadium etc. But despite the values in the accounts players often decrease in value as they age or run down their contracts, stadiums are just concrete and difficult to do much else with, training grounds often have other restrictions and most clubs lose money each month/year.
My gut feel, if the club is still losing somewhere north of £500k a month, probably still near £1m i'd personally pay him £15m if he writes of all the debt. But I suspect someone will pay north of £20m, maybe as much as 25m, but i'd play hard ball with him if I was the buyer - anyone who wants to sell, regardless of how rich they are, and continue to lose more and more each month will get desperate. In fact i'd offer him £1 and he can keep the debt hold, interest free, until we reach the premier league at which point it begins to be repaid at £5m a year. 3 -
@NapaAddick and @Henry Irving Are both right.
The current debts on the club are seen as assets as they are notionally making 3% interest, even though this is being added to the debt. This is how you arrive at an "enterprise value" of c. £77m. FYI it seems Napa is valuing the holding company to whom the debt is owed (and is therefore an asset) and Henry/most others are valuing the underlying club.
The true value of the club is much less once you come to sell as there's no prospect of turning that debt into capital repayment, hence it becomes a bad debt and a liability / loss again. This is where RD ends up having to wipe some of the debt in order to achieve a sale as the notional £77m is a grossly inflated actual value due to his poor management. If RD sells whilst we're not in the premiership he will likely make an actual loss as he will have to wipe some of that debt and transfer the rest to the new owner. He may try to sell off part of the club and retain some (ground, training ground etc.) for a long term income stream to compensate for his immediate losses on sale but this should also drastically reduce the purchase price.
Whether the loss is accounted for in the holding company or in the club accounts is semantics, RD will have to accept a loss, keep funding the debt, or wait and sell to a complete idiot and recover his full enterprise value. My money is on suffering a loss as he wants out and most people aren't willing to throw £20m + away on a purchase. RD will accept the loss on sale as he faces those losses being substantially higher if he waits another 12-24 months gambling on promotions that his track record proves he can't deliver.11 -
This is what I think too though. The price will be influenced by RD's reluctance to lose more than his ego will take, and the sense of future value (also ego) that will allow for some inflation in the mind of the buyer.cafc_harry said:I don’t think the club will sell for much more than £30m-£35m at an absolute maximum. You’re ultimately buying little more than potential and location at this point, whatever he values the valley at and sparrows obviously added too.
You can hold on to your money as I won’t take the bet, anyone else who wants to is more than welcome. Free £25
The sticking point will be who pays the charges held by Murray et al. Unless the ex-directors are desperate to be paid, and given that they're genuinely club-friendly (although not necessarily owner-friendly, who knows, the buyers may be willing to accept the charges now and negotiate later just to get the sale through.1 -
You nearly got, ahem, a flag for that...NapaAddick said:
Good, cuz someone will have to putt up the money to get us away from Rolland. I am sure we can iron out the differences and find out from some birdie what the price is... oh wait, sorry, was doing the pun thing again....golfaddick said:
I find it best not to assume anything.NapaAddick said:
You assume I voted for Trump.golfaddick said:
He's a yank. Don't forget they voted for Trump & think that owning a machine gun keeps you safer than owning a handgun.cafc_harry said:Unless the £35m he invested has made the club £35m more valuable then no it’s not worth even close to that. Don’t get how you’re still struggling with this.
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"Goodwill"Rob7Lee said:
You're not avoiding the point are you? We've just run up another £100m of debt due to poor transfer dealing - but heh - clubs worth another £100m more right by your calcs? Enterprise Value yer?NapaAddick said:So I am curious, what do YOU henry and harry, think this club will be sold for, including all debt? Pick a number you think will be more accurate than mine.
£20M? 30M?
Seriously, if you are back on planet earth now, football clubs (outside of the top 6) are notoriously difficult to value. Yes you have the 'asset' as in players, training ground, stadium etc. But despite the values in the accounts players often decrease in value as they age or run down their contracts, stadiums are just concrete and difficult to do much else with, training grounds often have other restrictions and most clubs lose money each month/year.
My gut feel, if the club is still losing somewhere north of £500k a month, probably still near £1m i'd personally pay him £15m if he writes of all the debt. But I suspect someone will pay north of £20m, maybe as much as 25m, but i'd play hard ball with him if I was the buyer - anyone who wants to sell, regardless of how rich they are, and continue to lose more and more each month will get desperate. In fact i'd offer him £1 and he can keep the debt hold, interest free, until we reach the premier league at which point it begins to be repaid at £5m a year.
; )2 -
Of course, forgot that - add on 50p theni_b_b_o_r_g said:
"Goodwill"Rob7Lee said:
You're not avoiding the point are you? We've just run up another £100m of debt due to poor transfer dealing - but heh - clubs worth another £100m more right by your calcs? Enterprise Value yer?NapaAddick said:So I am curious, what do YOU henry and harry, think this club will be sold for, including all debt? Pick a number you think will be more accurate than mine.
£20M? 30M?
Seriously, if you are back on planet earth now, football clubs (outside of the top 6) are notoriously difficult to value. Yes you have the 'asset' as in players, training ground, stadium etc. But despite the values in the accounts players often decrease in value as they age or run down their contracts, stadiums are just concrete and difficult to do much else with, training grounds often have other restrictions and most clubs lose money each month/year.
My gut feel, if the club is still losing somewhere north of £500k a month, probably still near £1m i'd personally pay him £15m if he writes of all the debt. But I suspect someone will pay north of £20m, maybe as much as 25m, but i'd play hard ball with him if I was the buyer - anyone who wants to sell, regardless of how rich they are, and continue to lose more and more each month will get desperate. In fact i'd offer him £1 and he can keep the debt hold, interest free, until we reach the premier league at which point it begins to be repaid at £5m a year.
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Henry, i’m Just going to leave these here for you..Henry Irving said:
You offered this silly bet before.NapaAddick said:I have an idea....
If RD sells for less than £55.6M, I will PayPal someone here who knows Henry and Harry (or one of them) £25. That should pay (hopefully) for a couple of beers at some CAFC match.
If...
1. He does not sell by season's end because he is unwilling to take a haircut, or
2. If he sells for £55.6M or more, or
3. He only sells part of the club and keeps the debt or an asset because he won't take a haircut
Then I win and they can PayPal me £25.
This makes a game of it and not something which seems to be frustrating me, them and everyone else. And we can stop going over it and wait til the fat Meire sings.
Then as now I said no.
You can't prove the sale price, it will be undisclosed.
But you'll then claim it was £77m anyway using your weird maths.
It's not a game, it's the future of the club.3 -
2 questions if I may -
If RD sold for £20m and that included the ground and training ground, but the new owners still had to pay him an agreed amount to cover his entire investmed, would that be a good deal from the club's perspective?
If RD "cleared all debts" when he bought the Club, why do 7 other people (incl. Murray) still have money owed to them?0
