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The mathematics of relegation

Dave Rudd
Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
in General Charlton
Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
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Comments

  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
  • Henry Irving
    Henry Irving Posts: 85,222
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    "Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals"


  • Henry Irving
    Henry Irving Posts: 85,222
    Like

    Make this a sticky
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    Henry Irving said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    "Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals"


    I know, was a joke. Either way, whilst I appreciate what Dave is doing, we just need to take it one game at a time. I hate examining exactly how many points we need as the league is so unpredictable. We’re in deep trouble because we don’t have anyone likely to score goals, should be saved from Wigan. 
  • RedRyan
    RedRyan Posts: 911
    edited July 2020
    I love this and was trying to figure out how teams playing each other affected maximum totals for all the teams around us (but realised there were so many permutations it became a mess to figure out)

    I suppose one way is to table it as:

    B56 L52 W50
    B53 L55 W50
    B50 L55 W53

    Either way we’d need either 56 or 55 points so another 10 should be the absolute max required! But for these points to be gained, other teams around us will be dropping points. Eg Hull will lose out on 6 points with these totals above as they play Luton and Wigan, meaning (if they lose against WBA today) the most they would be able to get would be another 9 points, putting them on 54 and reducing the max total we would need.

    Might be worth adding Hull in to the calculations!
  • clb74
    clb74 Posts: 10,824
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Henry Irving said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    "Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals"


    I know, was a joke. Either way, whilst I appreciate what Dave is doing, we just need to take it one game at a time. I hate examining exactly how many points we need as the league is so unpredictable. We’re in deep trouble because we don’t have anyone likely to score goals, should be saved from Wigan. 
    And the last four games we've only let in 1 goal.
    So it's not all bad news,at the moment we went be scoring many but we wont be letting many in.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
    Some people like this kind of thing, some don't.

    All this does is to establish the mathematically certainty and it allows progress to be monitored ... curiously enough, by taking one game at a time.

    First up, Boro v QPR later today.  R will be unaffected ... but R' may be.
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some people like this kind of thing, some don't.

    All this does is to establish the mathematically certainty and it allows progress to be monitored ... curiously enough, by taking one game at a time.

    First up, Boro v QPR later today.  R will be unaffected ... but R' may be.
    Yeah it was nothing personal mate and I’m sure many will enjoy this. Let’s just hope QPR can get a point at least today. 
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    clb74 said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Henry Irving said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    "Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals"


    I know, was a joke. Either way, whilst I appreciate what Dave is doing, we just need to take it one game at a time. I hate examining exactly how many points we need as the league is so unpredictable. We’re in deep trouble because we don’t have anyone likely to score goals, should be saved from Wigan. 
    And the last four games we've only let in 1 goal.
    So it's not all bad news,at the moment we went be scoring many but we wont be letting many in.
    No that’s a fair point. Our lack of goals does put a lot of pressure on the back 5 though. Its difficult because you almost know that we can’t win if we concede. 
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
    RedRyan said:
    I love this and was trying to figure out how teams playing each other affected maximum totals for all the teams around us (but realised there were so many permutations it became a mess to figure out)

    I suppose one way is to table it as:

    B56 L52 W50
    B53 L55 W50
    B50 L55 W53

    Either way we’d need either 56 or 55 points so another 10 should be the absolute max required! But for these points to be gained, other teams around us will be dropping points. Eg Hull will lose out on 6 points with these totals above as they play Luton and Wigan, meaning (if they lose against WBA today) the most they would be able to get would be another 9 points, putting them on 54 and reducing the max total we would need.

    Might be worth adding Hull in to the calculations!
    Hull City are not currently one of the three teams with the lowest maximum points totals (with or without Wigan) so, at the moment, nothing that they do will affect R or R'.

    That may change, of course, and, if and when it does, Hull City will be included (at the expense of one of the existing three).
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  • charltonkeston
    charltonkeston Posts: 7,362

    Dave Rudd said:
    Some people like this kind of thing, some don't.

    All this does is to establish the mathematically certainty and it allows progress to be monitored ... curiously enough, by taking one game at a time.

    First up, Boro v QPR later today.  R will be unaffected ... but R' may be.
    I do like an R number 
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
    charltonkeston said:

    Dave Rudd said:
    Some people like this kind of thing, some don't.

    All this does is to establish the mathematically certainty and it allows progress to be monitored ... curiously enough, by taking one game at a time.

    First up, Boro v QPR later today.  R will be unaffected ... but R' may be.
    I do like an R number 
    I'm claiming it as an original (R for 'relegation').

    Let me know if you hear anyone else using it.
  • clb74
    clb74 Posts: 10,824
    cafcfan1990 said:
    clb74 said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Henry Irving said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    "Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals"


    I know, was a joke. Either way, whilst I appreciate what Dave is doing, we just need to take it one game at a time. I hate examining exactly how many points we need as the league is so unpredictable. We’re in deep trouble because we don’t have anyone likely to score goals, should be saved from Wigan. 
    And the last four games we've only let in 1 goal.
    So it's not all bad news,at the moment we went be scoring many but we wont be letting many in.
    No that’s a fair point. Our lack of goals does put a lot of pressure on the back 5 though. Its difficult because you almost know that we can’t win if we concede. 
    Bowyers setting us up though that we wont concede many.
    We can blame the attack but we don't want to commit to many forward.
    Millwall had a couple of attacks where we had everyone behind the ball.
    If our points had worked out
    Hull 1
    QPR 3
    Cardiff 1
    Millwall 1 
    Wed probably be happier than with the7 weve got.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
    Middlesbrough 0-1 QPR

    The R number remains unchanged at 11 but, as Middlesbrough failed to collect any points today, the R' number (this is our target if the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) now drops to 14.

    Next update is after Tuesday's games.
  • Redrobo
    Redrobo Posts: 11,330
    WB won.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
    Redrobo said:
    WB won.
    No effect on the R numbers as Hull City are not currently one of the three teams with the lowest maximum points totals .
  • RedRyan
    RedRyan Posts: 911
    edited July 2020
    B56 L52 W50 (H54)
    B53 L55 W50 (H54)
    B50 L55 W53 (H54)

    If Hull go beyond 54 it would have to drop Luton or Wigan by 3 points. For Luton and Wigan to get at or near their max possible haul (accounting for the fact they must play Barnsley) it will mean Hull dropping below Luton or Barnsley in the totals...
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
    RedRyan said:
    B56 L52 W50 (H54)
    B53 L55 W50 (H54)
    B50 L55 W53 (H54)

    If Hull go beyond 54 it would have to drop Luton or Wigan by 3 points. For Luton and Wigan to get at or near their max possible haul (accounting for the fact they must play Barnsley) it will mean Hull dropping below Luton or Barnsley in the totals...
    At present, Hull City can record a maximum of 60 points (45 + five more wins).  In that event, both Luton and Wigan will have been defeated, so their maximum totals will drop to 52 and 50 respectively.

    If Hull City lose to either (or both) of Luton and Wigan, their maximum total will drop to 57 or 54.

    None of that affects the R numbers yet as Barnsley (56 points maximum) are currently the critical team from our perspective (as they have the highest maximum total of the three teams with the lowest maximum totals).

    Let's worry about Hull City if and when they replace either Barnsley, Luton or Wigan (or Middlesbrough if Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned).
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,168
    edited July 2020
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    Love it when the first reply misses the entire point of a thread. 
  • RedRyan
    RedRyan Posts: 911
    Dave Rudd said:
    RedRyan said:
    B56 L52 W50 (H54)
    B53 L55 W50 (H54)
    B50 L55 W53 (H54)

    If Hull go beyond 54 it would have to drop Luton or Wigan by 3 points. For Luton and Wigan to get at or near their max possible haul (accounting for the fact they must play Barnsley) it will mean Hull dropping below Luton or Barnsley in the totals...
    At present, Hull City can record a maximum of 60 points (45 + five more wins).  In that event, both Luton and Wigan will have been defeated, so their maximum totals will drop to 52 and 50 respectively.

    If Hull City lose to either (or both) of Luton and Wigan, their maximum total will drop to 57 or 54.

    None of that affects the R numbers yet as Barnsley (56 points maximum) are currently the critical team from our perspective (as they have the highest maximum total of the three teams with the lowest maximum totals).

    Let's worry about Hull City if and when they replace either Barnsley, Luton or Wigan (or Middlesbrough if Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned).
    But in this case, for Luton and Wigan to have max totals of 52 and 50, that would mean they’d both beaten Barnsley, dropping their max point total to 50, right?

    I thought this meant that 56 wasn’t a possible point total for someone in the bottom 3 but looking at it again, actually, you could still end up with 56 at the necessary point total to reach if Barnsley beat both:

    B56 L49 W50 H57 or
    B56 L52 W47 H57 or
    B56 L49 W47 H60

    Argh! This is annoying ha.

    In theory are draws still the best results for us in these “six pointers”?
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  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
    RedRyan said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    RedRyan said:
    B56 L52 W50 (H54)
    B53 L55 W50 (H54)
    B50 L55 W53 (H54)

    If Hull go beyond 54 it would have to drop Luton or Wigan by 3 points. For Luton and Wigan to get at or near their max possible haul (accounting for the fact they must play Barnsley) it will mean Hull dropping below Luton or Barnsley in the totals...
    At present, Hull City can record a maximum of 60 points (45 + five more wins).  In that event, both Luton and Wigan will have been defeated, so their maximum totals will drop to 52 and 50 respectively.

    If Hull City lose to either (or both) of Luton and Wigan, their maximum total will drop to 57 or 54.

    None of that affects the R numbers yet as Barnsley (56 points maximum) are currently the critical team from our perspective (as they have the highest maximum total of the three teams with the lowest maximum totals).

    Let's worry about Hull City if and when they replace either Barnsley, Luton or Wigan (or Middlesbrough if Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned).
    But in this case, for Luton and Wigan to have max totals of 52 and 50, that would mean they’d both beaten Barnsley, dropping their max point total to 50, right?

    I thought this meant that 56 wasn’t a possible point total for someone in the bottom 3 but looking at it again, actually, you could still end up with 56 at the necessary point total to reach if Barnsley beat both:

    B56 L49 W50 H57 or
    B56 L52 W47 H57 or
    B56 L49 W47 H60

    Argh! This is annoying ha.

    In theory are draws still the best results for us in these “six pointers”?
    Yes, I think draws are preferred at the moment as there's not much between the three relevant teams ... hence better that they all drop points.

    You could generally say that the best result in any of the 'six pointers' is for the critical team (currently Barnsley) to drop points, but a Luton win on Tuesday doesn't feel great to me.  But Wigan to win at Barnsley on Saturday would be the best outcome. 




  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    Exiled_Addick said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    Love it when the first reply misses the entire point of a thread. 
    No as I stated after, it was a joke. Probably a bad one mind 
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    Dave Rudd said:
    RedRyan said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    RedRyan said:
    B56 L52 W50 (H54)
    B53 L55 W50 (H54)
    B50 L55 W53 (H54)

    If Hull go beyond 54 it would have to drop Luton or Wigan by 3 points. For Luton and Wigan to get at or near their max possible haul (accounting for the fact they must play Barnsley) it will mean Hull dropping below Luton or Barnsley in the totals...
    At present, Hull City can record a maximum of 60 points (45 + five more wins).  In that event, both Luton and Wigan will have been defeated, so their maximum totals will drop to 52 and 50 respectively.

    If Hull City lose to either (or both) of Luton and Wigan, their maximum total will drop to 57 or 54.

    None of that affects the R numbers yet as Barnsley (56 points maximum) are currently the critical team from our perspective (as they have the highest maximum total of the three teams with the lowest maximum totals).

    Let's worry about Hull City if and when they replace either Barnsley, Luton or Wigan (or Middlesbrough if Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned).
    But in this case, for Luton and Wigan to have max totals of 52 and 50, that would mean they’d both beaten Barnsley, dropping their max point total to 50, right?

    I thought this meant that 56 wasn’t a possible point total for someone in the bottom 3 but looking at it again, actually, you could still end up with 56 at the necessary point total to reach if Barnsley beat both:

    B56 L49 W50 H57 or
    B56 L52 W47 H57 or
    B56 L49 W47 H60

    Argh! This is annoying ha.

    In theory are draws still the best results for us in these “six pointers”?
    Yes, I think draws are preferred at the moment as there's not much between the three relevant teams ... hence better that they all drop points.

    You could generally say that the best result in any of the 'six pointers' is for the critical team (currently Barnsley) to drop points, but a Luton win on Tuesday doesn't feel great to me.  But Wigan to win at Barnsley on Saturday would be the best outcome. 




    Agreed, we want a draw but always want the team with less points to win. Barnsley don’t win at least one of these next two and they’re down. 
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Exiled_Addick said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    Love it when the first reply misses the entire point of a thread. 
    No as I stated after, it was a joke. Probably a bad one mind 
    I enjoyed it anyway.

    Note that we picked up three of the 17 points today without playing.

    What are we all worried about?
  • cafcfan1990
    cafcfan1990 Posts: 12,811
    Dave Rudd said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Exiled_Addick said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    Love it when the first reply misses the entire point of a thread. 
    No as I stated after, it was a joke. Probably a bad one mind 
    I enjoyed it anyway.

    Note that we picked up three of the 17 points today without playing.

    What are we all worried about?
    Other than Huddersfield not losing it’s been a great weekend. 

    I thought Warnock was going to come in and get Boro playing but now I’m not even convinced they will stay up. Wigan’s deduction will probably save them. 
  • CH4RLTON
    CH4RLTON Posts: 2,618
    Love it so am I right in saying that of Wigan and Luton draw in midweek and Wigan lose regardless of any other results the R will will be 8 ( the R includong the point deduction that is) 
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,865
    CH4RLTON said:
    Love it so am I right in saying that of Wigan and Luton draw in midweek and Wigan lose regardless of any other results the R will will be 8 ( the R includong the point deduction that is) 
    Not quite.

    At the moment, Barnsley are the critical team.  So, if Luton and Barnsley draw (I think that's what you meant), R is reduced from 11 to nine.  A Luton win sees R become 10.

    Any other results, although they might be helpful, do not actually affect R ... apart from ours at Brentford, of course. 
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,168
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Exiled_Addick said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Some of you will have seen the posts in the 'League table talk' thread where I indicate that we currently need 11 points to be mathematically certain of safety from relegation.  I stress 'mathematically certain' ... in reality we are likely to need significantly fewer points.

    Before you get too worried, those points can come from our games or those of the three clubs with the lowest maximum points totals.

    The 11 point target is based on the fact that Luton's maximum points total is now 55 (40 + five more wins), Barnsley can theoretically amass 56 (41 + five more wins), while Wigan could get to 53 (50 + five more wins - 12 point deduction).

    So, we need 57 points to be mathematically safe ... and that target reduces as Barnsley, Luton and Wigan (currently in that order) fail to win any of their games. 

    However, Barnsley play both Luton and Wigan (not at the same time) in the run-in, so those three maximum totals will not all be achievable.


    I thought we could use this thread to indicate progress against the 11 point target (which we've decided to call the 'R number') as the relevant games take place.

    Note that the 11 point target assumes that Wigan's 12 point deduction will not be overturned.  If it is, then Wigan are replaced by Middlesbrough and our new target becomes 17 points (as Middlesbrough can theoretically achieve 62 points at the moment).

    So, two numbers ... R currently stands at 11 ... and R' (where the Wigan 12 point deduction is overturned) is 17.


    More news later ... once I've double-checked the sums with my good friend, Rachel.
    Doubt we’re going to get 17 points from 5 games!!!
    Love it when the first reply misses the entire point of a thread. 
    No as I stated after, it was a joke. Probably a bad one mind 
    I enjoyed it anyway.

    Note that we picked up three of the 17 points today without playing.

    What are we all worried about?
    Other than Huddersfield not losing it’s been a great weekend. 
    And the small matter of us losing to that lot. 
  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 69,846
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    RedRyan said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    RedRyan said:
    B56 L52 W50 (H54)
    B53 L55 W50 (H54)
    B50 L55 W53 (H54)

    If Hull go beyond 54 it would have to drop Luton or Wigan by 3 points. For Luton and Wigan to get at or near their max possible haul (accounting for the fact they must play Barnsley) it will mean Hull dropping below Luton or Barnsley in the totals...
    At present, Hull City can record a maximum of 60 points (45 + five more wins).  In that event, both Luton and Wigan will have been defeated, so their maximum totals will drop to 52 and 50 respectively.

    If Hull City lose to either (or both) of Luton and Wigan, their maximum total will drop to 57 or 54.

    None of that affects the R numbers yet as Barnsley (56 points maximum) are currently the critical team from our perspective (as they have the highest maximum total of the three teams with the lowest maximum totals).

    Let's worry about Hull City if and when they replace either Barnsley, Luton or Wigan (or Middlesbrough if Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned).
    But in this case, for Luton and Wigan to have max totals of 52 and 50, that would mean they’d both beaten Barnsley, dropping their max point total to 50, right?

    I thought this meant that 56 wasn’t a possible point total for someone in the bottom 3 but looking at it again, actually, you could still end up with 56 at the necessary point total to reach if Barnsley beat both:

    B56 L49 W50 H57 or
    B56 L52 W47 H57 or
    B56 L49 W47 H60

    Argh! This is annoying ha.

    In theory are draws still the best results for us in these “six pointers”?
    Yes, I think draws are preferred at the moment as there's not much between the three relevant teams ... hence better that they all drop points.

    You could generally say that the best result in any of the 'six pointers' is for the critical team (currently Barnsley) to drop points, but a Luton win on Tuesday doesn't feel great to me.  But Wigan to win at Barnsley on Saturday would be the best outcome. 




    Agreed, we want a draw but always want the team with less points to win. Barnsley don’t win at least one of these next two and they’re down. 
    The other advantage of draws of course is that fewer points get earned by both teams combined (2) than if one team wins (3). 

    I'm also wary of wanting the bottom 3 to automatically lose against teams around us, as that to me feel like putting all our eggs in one basket. If one of the bottom 3 have a brilliant run and overtake us, we'll still be safe if one of the likes of Stoke, Boro and Hull are still below us

    For example if Hull draw their games against Wigan and Luton, but lose their other 3 matches, they'll dent Luton and Wigan's chances AND only reach 47 points, a total we can surely overhaul. 
  • AddicksAddict
    AddicksAddict Posts: 15,791
    killerandflash said:
    cafcfan1990 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    RedRyan said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    RedRyan said:
    B56 L52 W50 (H54)
    B53 L55 W50 (H54)
    B50 L55 W53 (H54)

    If Hull go beyond 54 it would have to drop Luton or Wigan by 3 points. For Luton and Wigan to get at or near their max possible haul (accounting for the fact they must play Barnsley) it will mean Hull dropping below Luton or Barnsley in the totals...
    At present, Hull City can record a maximum of 60 points (45 + five more wins).  In that event, both Luton and Wigan will have been defeated, so their maximum totals will drop to 52 and 50 respectively.

    If Hull City lose to either (or both) of Luton and Wigan, their maximum total will drop to 57 or 54.

    None of that affects the R numbers yet as Barnsley (56 points maximum) are currently the critical team from our perspective (as they have the highest maximum total of the three teams with the lowest maximum totals).

    Let's worry about Hull City if and when they replace either Barnsley, Luton or Wigan (or Middlesbrough if Wigan's 12 point deduction is overturned).
    But in this case, for Luton and Wigan to have max totals of 52 and 50, that would mean they’d both beaten Barnsley, dropping their max point total to 50, right?

    I thought this meant that 56 wasn’t a possible point total for someone in the bottom 3 but looking at it again, actually, you could still end up with 56 at the necessary point total to reach if Barnsley beat both:

    B56 L49 W50 H57 or
    B56 L52 W47 H57 or
    B56 L49 W47 H60

    Argh! This is annoying ha.

    In theory are draws still the best results for us in these “six pointers”?
    Yes, I think draws are preferred at the moment as there's not much between the three relevant teams ... hence better that they all drop points.

    You could generally say that the best result in any of the 'six pointers' is for the critical team (currently Barnsley) to drop points, but a Luton win on Tuesday doesn't feel great to me.  But Wigan to win at Barnsley on Saturday would be the best outcome. 




    Agreed, we want a draw but always want the team with less points to win. Barnsley don’t win at least one of these next two and they’re down. 
    The other advantage of draws of course is that fewer points get earned by both teams combined (2) than if one team wins (3). 

    I'm also wary of wanting the bottom 3 to automatically lose against teams around us, as that to me feel like putting all our eggs in one basket. If one of the bottom 3 have a brilliant run and overtake us, we'll still be safe if one of the likes of Stoke, Boro and Hull are still below us

    For example if Hull draw their games against Wigan and Luton, but lose their other 3 matches, they'll dent Luton and Wigan's chances AND only reach 47 points, a total we can surely overhaul. 
    I must admit, I'm not sure we'll get many more than 47.  Five games to go:

    Brentford - a point would be good but this could be our first loss against the top six.
    Reading - would hope for a win.
    Birmingham - draw at best.
    Wigan - could see us losing that, depends if they've been paid and can field a first team or they have to send the kids out
    Leeds - hopefully they'll have been on the lash since wrapping up the title and are too hungover to see straight.

    I reckon four or five points for those, leaving us on 50 or 51 points.

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