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The mathematics of relegation
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Got it. Thanks.Gillis said:KiwiValley said:
Thanks but if that answers my question, you need to explain my question...Gillis said:To summarise the last few posts, and for the sake of clarity for people just dipping into the thread to check the latest number:R = 9 with Barnsley as the critical team.R' = 11 with Huddersfield as the critical team.Sorry, @KiwiValley , it wasn't intended as an answer to your question.It's 9 points from the remaining games, not the mini season.R is the number of points we need, as of now, from the remaining games to be mathematically certain of staying up if Wigan's 12 point deduction is applied.R' is the number of points we need, as of now, from the remaining games to be mathematically certain of staying up if Wigan's points deduction isn't applied.Both numbers will reduce as we gain points, but also as other teams drop points, so the actual total that we need from the remaining games to stay up will, in reality, be lower than R.1 -
All I know is if we get relegated, in Maths terms there will be no money to put under the doorstep and brought forward to the next column.
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It would certainly be a huge help, but in terms of the mathematical probablilities this thread is concentrating on, we do not (at this moment in time) 'need' a win. The only time you could say with certainty that we'd 'need' a win would be when we are in the bottom three.letthegoodtimesroll said:If R is greater than 2 then we need to win a fcking game, starting today, to not have to rely upon the teams below us losing all their remaining games0 -
Whether we retain our place, get relegated or are held-up in the limbo-land of relegation legalities, the one thing we can be certain of is that no-one will be putting money under the doorstep. A gang of crooks have the keys to the house, a Range Rover is parked around the corner and are just waiting for the moment to spirit away any white goods and soft furnishings that are still functional after the mad old owner abandoned and left the place to go to ruin.soapboxsam said:All I know is if we get relegated, in Maths terms there will be no money to put under the doorstep and brought forward to the next column.1 -
*puts on best authoritative voice*Callumcafc said:
But Hull with four games to play could get to 57 so that would put the R (R’) at 12.LenGlover said:
If Wigan get the points deduction yes but if not then Huddersfield are the team with the lowest potential maximum (56) so R is 11.Callumcafc said:Surely because Luton’s maximum points total is 53 while Barnsley’s is still 54, the R number would remain at 9.
I’ll wait for the authority @Dave Rudd but I don’t believe the result tonight had any effect on R or R’ (with or without Wigan points deduction). R should still be 9 and R’ should still be 12.
Confirmation that the Huddersfield 0-2 Luton result has no effect on R (which remains at 9, with Barnsley as the critical team), but that R' drops to 11 and Huddersfield now become the critical team.
Congrats to Gillis for his explanation earlier in the thread. That's my boy!
Also, as rina said, Hull City are irrelevant at present as they are no longer the critical team in the R' scenario ... but all that might (will) change over the weekend.4 -
Accepting this is about mathematical certainty, Barnsley also require an 11 goal swing in goal difference over the course of the remaining matches if they and Charlton finish on the same points.
if Luton become the critical team there isn’t much chance of them closing the GD gap of 20.3 -
Agreed ... but it is about mathematical certainty. There won't be a lot here that reflects reality or likelihood. I think there are other threads for that.Airman Brown said:Accepting this is about mathematical certainty, Barnsley also require an 11 goal swing in goal difference over the course of the remaining matches if they and Charlton finish on the same points.
if Luton become the critical team there isn’t much chance of them closing the GD gap of 20.1 -
R 8
R' 94 -
Yes, nicely done FOD.Friend Or Defoe said:R 8
R' 9
R=8 and Luton are the critical team now.
R'=9 and Hull City are the critical team.0 -
So we’re fucked then?Dave Rudd said:
Yes, nicely done FOD.Friend Or Defoe said:R 8
R' 9
R=8 and Luton are the critical team now.
R'=9 and Hull City are the critical team.0 - Sponsored links:
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Looks like it.iainment said:
So we’re fucked then?Dave Rudd said:
Yes, nicely done FOD.Friend Or Defoe said:R 8
R' 9
R=8 and Luton are the critical team now.
R'=9 and Hull City are the critical team.
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We win our remaining 3 games and we stay up , simple as that .0
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We don’t need all 9 points as explained elsewhere on this thread. Points not gained by the other teams will reduce the R and the R’1
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With Hull playing Luton in the penultimate game round - how does that fit into the equation?Dave Rudd said:
Yes, nicely done FOD.Friend Or Defoe said:R 8
R' 9
R=8 and Luton are the critical team now.
R'=9 and Hull City are the critical team.
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Too many permutations at the moment.Coyotejohn1947 said:
With Hull playing Luton in the penultimate game round - how does that fit into the equation?Dave Rudd said:
Yes, nicely done FOD.Friend Or Defoe said:R 8
R' 9
R=8 and Luton are the critical team now.
R'=9 and Hull City are the critical team.
Let's look at that once our win at Birmingham the midweek matches is are out of the way.5 -
R and R' should reduce further in midweek and new teams will take the place of Luton and Hull, so them playing each other next week is not likely to be as significant as it currently looks.1
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Thank you, my child.swords_alive said:R and R' should reduce further in midweek and new teams will take the place of Luton and Hull, so them playing each other next week is not likely to be as significant as it currently looks.
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Blimers !Dave Rudd said:
Thank you, my child.swords_alive said:R and R' should reduce further in midweek and new teams will take the place of Luton and Hull, so them playing each other next week is not likely to be as significant as it currently looks.
You're now a man of the cloth as well as a maths genius !
Is there no end to your talents ?1 -
Oh, Fanny. As you know, my confessional booth is always open.Fanny Fanackapan said:
Blimers !Dave Rudd said:
Thank you, my child.swords_alive said:R and R' should reduce further in midweek and new teams will take the place of Luton and Hull, so them playing each other next week is not likely to be as significant as it currently looks.
You're now a man of the cloth as well as a maths genius !
Is there no end to your talents ?
But it's delightful when the flock 'get it' ... isn't it?
Maybe my work is done here.
And I do move in a mysterious way.1 -
Euphemism alert!Dave Rudd said:
Oh, Fanny. As you know, my confessional booth is always open.Fanny Fanackapan said:
Blimers !Dave Rudd said:
Thank you, my child.swords_alive said:R and R' should reduce further in midweek and new teams will take the place of Luton and Hull, so them playing each other next week is not likely to be as significant as it currently looks.
You're now a man of the cloth as well as a maths genius !
Is there no end to your talents ?
But it's delightful when the flock 'get it' ... isn't it?
Maybe my work is done here.
And I do move in a mysterious way.
Top work though, Dave!0 - Sponsored links:
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It’s simple now. Beat Wigan and my predictions say that we definitely stay up with Barnsley (43) Hull (45) and Wigan (46 with a 12 point penalty) going down. Stoke and Boro look like our ‘buffer’ if we screw up both the Birmingham and Wigan matches as they have a tough run in. Luton should scramble away, especially with QPR at home to come. I am just hoping we aren’t relying on avoiding a hiding at Leeds to stay up on goal difference.1
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So many twists and turns still to come.
Stoke v Birmingham.
Wigan v Hull.
Hull v Luton.
Charlton v Wigan.
Then we still have the points deduction hanging over Sheffield Wednesday. 12 points puts them 2nd bottom.
The only thing looking fairly certain right now is that with their remaining games (Leeds/Forest/Brentford) Barnsley will almost certainly go down.
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Thing is time Barnsley play their last 2 games, Forest wil be safe in the play offs, with no chance of getting into the top 2 so may rest players or take it easy. Same for Brentford on the last day, knowing that they cant catch the top 2 & 3rd it is.Chris_from_Sidcup said:So many twists and turns still to come.
Stoke v Birmingham.
Wigan v Hull.
Hull v Luton.
Charlton v Wigan.
Then we still have the points deduction hanging over Sheffield Wednesday. 12 points puts them 2nd bottom.
The only thing looking fairly certain right now is that with their remaining games (Leeds/Forest/Brentford) Barnsley will almost certainly go down.
If we don't win on Wednesday then I fear we are down. Wigan have only lost once in the last 11 games or so & not conceded many.....I believe its something like 5 clean sheets out of 6 or 7 games.1 -
So like us a couple of seasons back when we rested players at Rochdale (last game of the season cos we’d already made the play offs) and they beat us to stay up , teams may do that and the tears from our fans will rain down again0
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(W 51)
B 52
L 53*
H 54*As Luton and Hull cannot both get max points, Barnsley become the highest possible point earners if Wigan have a deduction, so 52 is the real value we need to beat (the winner of Luton and Hull would be out of the bottom 3 if they get their max point total so can be discounted) It doesn’t really matter about Wigan vs Hull for mathematical certainty because the loser would still be below Barnsley.
This makes it incredibly frustrating because it means that a win yesterday and we’d already have been halfway there!0 -
In the interest of raising collective optimism (sorry, golfie), I will offer another mathematical curiosity ... the theory of sequences.golfaddick said:
Thing is time Barnsley play their last 2 games, Forest wil be safe in the play offs, with no chance of getting into the top 2 so may rest players or take it easy. Same for Brentford on the last day, knowing that they cant catch the top 2 & 3rd it is.Chris_from_Sidcup said:So many twists and turns still to come.
Stoke v Birmingham.
Wigan v Hull.
Hull v Luton.
Charlton v Wigan.
Then we still have the points deduction hanging over Sheffield Wednesday. 12 points puts them 2nd bottom.
The only thing looking fairly certain right now is that with their remaining games (Leeds/Forest/Brentford) Barnsley will almost certainly go down.
If we don't win on Wednesday then I fear we are down. Wigan have only lost once in the last 11 games or so & not conceded many.....I believe its something like 5 clean sheets out of 6 or 7 games.
Broadly, this states that, where the variables are not truly independent, the longer a sequence continues, the more likely it is to come to an end. This is why you don't see too many 'infinite' sequences.
It also explains why Liverpool failed to beat Burnley yesterday ... a sequence of 25 consecutive homes wins just doesn't happen. It's why you sometimes see six or seven consecutive wins ... but rarely eight or nine etc.
The other factor, much more widely appreciated, is called 'reversion to the mean'. Wigan's recent run has seen few defeats ... and yet, they are a mid-table side as the League table shows. Therefore, they are due a few defeats, and they may have used up their 'clean sheet' quota. Note that our goal at Brentford was another example ... their run of five consecutive clean sheets was always going to come to an end, even against goal-shy us.
Fanny ... you can add Motivational Coach to the list, if you like.
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Or to look at it another way......Barnsley are a poor side who've just got stuffed at Stoke and failed to beat Luton and Wigan.golfaddick said:
Thing is time Barnsley play their last 2 games, Forest wil be safe in the play offs, with no chance of getting into the top 2 so may rest players or take it easy. Same for Brentford on the last day, knowing that they cant catch the top 2 & 3rd it is.Chris_from_Sidcup said:So many twists and turns still to come.
Stoke v Birmingham.
Wigan v Hull.
Hull v Luton.
Charlton v Wigan.
Then we still have the points deduction hanging over Sheffield Wednesday. 12 points puts them 2nd bottom.
The only thing looking fairly certain right now is that with their remaining games (Leeds/Forest/Brentford) Barnsley will almost certainly go down.
If we don't win on Wednesday then I fear we are down. Wigan have only lost once in the last 11 games or so & not conceded many.....I believe its something like 5 clean sheets out of 6 or 7 games.
Wigan got stuffed at Brentford where we nearly got something, and they just failed to beat a poor Barnsley side.
If we don't win on Wednesday then we are certainly bang in trouble, but let's not pretend Barnsley and Wigan are suddenly world beaters.1 -
Brentford are only 3 points behind WBA with a better GD. If they win their next 2 games (which seems likely) they'll go into the final game still in contention for automatic promotiongolfaddick said:
Thing is time Barnsley play their last 2 games, Forest wil be safe in the play offs, with no chance of getting into the top 2 so may rest players or take it easy. Same for Brentford on the last day, knowing that they cant catch the top 2 & 3rd it is.Chris_from_Sidcup said:So many twists and turns still to come.
Stoke v Birmingham.
Wigan v Hull.
Hull v Luton.
Charlton v Wigan.
Then we still have the points deduction hanging over Sheffield Wednesday. 12 points puts them 2nd bottom.
The only thing looking fairly certain right now is that with their remaining games (Leeds/Forest/Brentford) Barnsley will almost certainly go down.
If we don't win on Wednesday then I fear we are down. Wigan have only lost once in the last 11 games or so & not conceded many.....I believe its something like 5 clean sheets out of 6 or 7 games.
Wednesday is a must win game, both for the crucial points, but also the confidence boost0 -
As interesting an exercise as this is, if we do go down it will have nothing to do with the mathematics. It will be because we have wasted the numerous chances that we have had to get enough points - by winning games. 6 points gained from the first 2 games back has now turned into 7 from 6.
But the real mathematics are that we have scored 3 goals in our last 9 games - this return is an "F" for failure!1 -
Well, going by @Dave Rudd's thinking then we are just about to hit the goal trail & finish with 5 goals in our last 3 games.l 😃Addick Addict said:As interesting an exercise as this is, if we do go down it will have nothing to do with the mathematics. It will be because we have wasted the numerous chances that we have had to get enough points - by winning games. 6 points gained from the first 2 games back has now turned into 7 from 6.
But the real mathematics are that we have scored 3 goals in our last 9 games - this return is an "F" for failure!3
