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The mathematics of relegation
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Will also be because of our inability to see out games.Addick Addict said:As interesting an exercise as this is, if we do go down it will have nothing to do with the mathematics. It will be because we have wasted the numerous chances that we have had to get enough points - by winning games. 6 points gained from the first 2 games back has now turned into 7 from 6.
But the real mathematics are that we have scored 3 goals in our last 9 games - this return is an "F" for failure!
Injury time goals conceded to Bristol City, Millwall, Sheff Weds, Huddersfield, Hull cost us 6 points. We'd already be safe.
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Someone worked this out last week and with the goals we’ve scored late on, we’d only be 1 point up. Of course that 1 point would be helpful.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Will also be because of our inability to see out games.Addick Addict said:As interesting an exercise as this is, if we do go down it will have nothing to do with the mathematics. It will be because we have wasted the numerous chances that we have had to get enough points - by winning games. 6 points gained from the first 2 games back has now turned into 7 from 6.
But the real mathematics are that we have scored 3 goals in our last 9 games - this return is an "F" for failure!
Injury time goals conceded to Bristol City, Millwall, Sheff Weds, Huddersfield, Hull cost us 6 points. We'd already be safe.1 -
That's more like it, golfie.golfaddick said:
Well, going by @Dave Rudd's thinking then we are just about to hit the goal trail & finish with 5 goals in our last 3 games.l 😃Addick Addict said:As interesting an exercise as this is, if we do go down it will have nothing to do with the mathematics. It will be because we have wasted the numerous chances that we have had to get enough points - by winning games. 6 points gained from the first 2 games back has now turned into 7 from 6.
But the real mathematics are that we have scored 3 goals in our last 9 games - this return is an "F" for failure!
There's hope for you yet.1 -
Brentford are three behind West Brom with a better Goal Difference - Realistically Brentford have to win all three games and pray West Brom lose onegolfaddick said:
Thing is time Barnsley play their last 2 games, Forest wil be safe in the play offs, with no chance of getting into the top 2 so may rest players or take it easy. Same for Brentford on the last day, knowing that they cant catch the top 2 & 3rd it is.Chris_from_Sidcup said:So many twists and turns still to come.
Stoke v Birmingham.
Wigan v Hull.
Hull v Luton.
Charlton v Wigan.
Then we still have the points deduction hanging over Sheffield Wednesday. 12 points puts them 2nd bottom.
The only thing looking fairly certain right now is that with their remaining games (Leeds/Forest/Brentford) Barnsley will almost certainly go down.
If we don't win on Wednesday then I fear we are down. Wigan have only lost once in the last 11 games or so & not conceded many.....I believe its something like 5 clean sheets out of 6 or 7 games.0 -
I think we need Brum to win at Stoke and hope they switch off safe in midweek.0
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Who have we scored injury time goals against to save us points?stoneroses19 said:
Someone worked this out last week and with the goals we’ve scored late on, we’d only be 1 point up. Of course that 1 point would be helpful.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Will also be because of our inability to see out games.Addick Addict said:As interesting an exercise as this is, if we do go down it will have nothing to do with the mathematics. It will be because we have wasted the numerous chances that we have had to get enough points - by winning games. 6 points gained from the first 2 games back has now turned into 7 from 6.
But the real mathematics are that we have scored 3 goals in our last 9 games - this return is an "F" for failure!
Injury time goals conceded to Bristol City, Millwall, Sheff Weds, Huddersfield, Hull cost us 6 points. We'd already be safe.
I can only think of the away games at West Brom and QPR to save us a draw. So that's 2 points saved and 6 lost.0 -
West Brom play Fulham on Tuesday, that's the big oneForeverAddickted said:
Brentford are three behind West Brom with a better Goal Difference - Realistically Brentford have to win all three games and pray West Brom lose onegolfaddick said:
Thing is time Barnsley play their last 2 games, Forest wil be safe in the play offs, with no chance of getting into the top 2 so may rest players or take it easy. Same for Brentford on the last day, knowing that they cant catch the top 2 & 3rd it is.Chris_from_Sidcup said:So many twists and turns still to come.
Stoke v Birmingham.
Wigan v Hull.
Hull v Luton.
Charlton v Wigan.
Then we still have the points deduction hanging over Sheffield Wednesday. 12 points puts them 2nd bottom.
The only thing looking fairly certain right now is that with their remaining games (Leeds/Forest/Brentford) Barnsley will almost certainly go down.
If we don't win on Wednesday then I fear we are down. Wigan have only lost once in the last 11 games or so & not conceded many.....I believe its something like 5 clean sheets out of 6 or 7 games.1 -
Not only that, but the last minute equaliser that Hull got at the Valley could prove very vital. That's 3 more points we would have over them in that game alone.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Who have we scored injury time goals against to save us points?stoneroses19 said:
Someone worked this out last week and with the goals we’ve scored late on, we’d only be 1 point up. Of course that 1 point would be helpful.Chris_from_Sidcup said:
Will also be because of our inability to see out games.Addick Addict said:As interesting an exercise as this is, if we do go down it will have nothing to do with the mathematics. It will be because we have wasted the numerous chances that we have had to get enough points - by winning games. 6 points gained from the first 2 games back has now turned into 7 from 6.
But the real mathematics are that we have scored 3 goals in our last 9 games - this return is an "F" for failure!
Injury time goals conceded to Bristol City, Millwall, Sheff Weds, Huddersfield, Hull cost us 6 points. We'd already be safe.
I can only think of the away games at West Brom and QPR to save us a draw. So that's 2 points saved and 6 lost.0 -
Birmingham are there for the taking next week. If we can't beat them we don't deserve to stay up.7
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Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.0 -
You'll make £6 profit . They are favourites at 11-8golfaddick said:4 -
I think there will be considerable touching of cloth in the coming days given our league position combined with the utterly perilous state of our ownershipFanny Fanackapan said:
Blimers !Dave Rudd said:
Thank you, my child.swords_alive said:R and R' should reduce further in midweek and new teams will take the place of Luton and Hull, so them playing each other next week is not likely to be as significant as it currently looks.
You're now a man of the cloth as well as a maths genius !
Is there no end to your talents ?0 -
That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!Covered End said:Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.0 -
Don't forget, they're playing us. Mystery solved.killerandflash said:
That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!Covered End said:Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.4 -
I feel Sorry for Lee Bowyer,
he has no proper management, no proper Strikers
and No luck against stupid referee decisions
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Lyle Twat Taylor if he was intelligent would have scored at least three Goals since we started back.
made a name for himself and kept us up.
then he could get a better deal elsewhere and his new boss would trust him.
we have a 50/50 change of survival we cannot score goals so it’s going to be very difficult 👎2 -
I think 3 more points will see us safe... either Wednesday or Saturday, obvs would take 6😝3
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It's actually 11 games now after yesterday.killerandflash said:
That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!Covered End said:Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.
Birmingham are winless post-lockdown, have only 1 home win in 14 games, no clean sheet at home since October and have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 5 home games.
Also post lockdown, we've won at Hull, got a good draw at Cardiff and lost narrowly at Brentford.
Cannot see why Birmingham should be favourites.1 -
you've not watched our last 4 games then?Chris_from_Sidcup said:
It's actually 11 games now after yesterday.killerandflash said:
That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!Covered End said:Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.
Birmingham are winless post-lockdown, have only 1 home win in 14 games, no clean sheet at home since October and have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 5 home games.
Also post lockdown, we've won at Hull, got a good draw at Cardiff and lost narrowly at Brentford.
Cannot see why Birmingham should be favourites.0 -
in fairness, we have remained competitive in each and every game. Millwall are a curse, we gave Brentford a scare and should have at least earned a draw from Reading. Our destiny remains in our hands.StigThundercock said:
you've not watched our last 4 games then?Chris_from_Sidcup said:
It's actually 11 games now after yesterday.killerandflash said:
That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!Covered End said:Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.
Birmingham are winless post-lockdown, have only 1 home win in 14 games, no clean sheet at home since October and have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 5 home games.
Also post lockdown, we've won at Hull, got a good draw at Cardiff and lost narrowly at Brentford.
Cannot see why Birmingham should be favourites.
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Have you watched Birmingham's last 4 matches...StigThundercock said:
you've not watched our last 4 games then?Chris_from_Sidcup said:
It's actually 11 games now after yesterday.killerandflash said:
That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!Covered End said:Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.
Birmingham are winless post-lockdown, have only 1 home win in 14 games, no clean sheet at home since October and have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 5 home games.
Also post lockdown, we've won at Hull, got a good draw at Cardiff and lost narrowly at Brentford.
Cannot see why Birmingham should be favourites.0 -
Yes. Good point at Cardiff, admittedly shit v Millwall as usual but Bonne should've scored and a draw would've probably been fair, led Brentford (form team in the division) for ages and could've got a point, robbed by the ref v Reading and a draw would've been fair.StigThundercock said:
you've not watched our last 4 games then?Chris_from_Sidcup said:
It's actually 11 games now after yesterday.killerandflash said:
That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!Covered End said:Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.
Birmingham are winless post-lockdown, have only 1 home win in 14 games, no clean sheet at home since October and have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 5 home games.
Also post lockdown, we've won at Hull, got a good draw at Cardiff and lost narrowly at Brentford.
Cannot see why Birmingham should be favourites.
We're always in games. Birmingham are getting soundly beaten most games.2 -
Yes but think of the knock on affect of this recommendation going out to all Golfie's clients in his weekly newsletter - "How to more than double your investment in just a couple of hours!"Bedsaddick said:
You'll make £6 profit . They are favourites at 11-8golfaddick said:2 -
So if we fail to beat them we are shit0
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It depends whether they find their form for one night or not. It all hinges on the ref. Apparently.oohaahmortimer said:So if we fail to beat them we are shit1 -
Don't let it change you Golf.Bedsaddick said:
You'll make £6 profit . They are favourites at 11-8golfaddick said:1 -
When you've only scored 3 goals in over 14 hours of football every decision does tend to matter. Whether it should to that extent is another question.2
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I love this thread. It brings calm as death approaches, much like Buddhism I expect.1
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Are we going to slowly slip away or go down screaming?0
