The mathematics of relegation

golfaddick said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

So many twists and turns still to come.

Stoke v Birmingham.
Wigan v Hull. 
Hull v Luton.
Charlton v Wigan.

Then we still have the points deduction hanging over Sheffield Wednesday. 12 points puts them 2nd bottom.

The only thing looking fairly certain right now is that with their remaining games (Leeds/Forest/Brentford) Barnsley will almost certainly go down.

Thing is time Barnsley play their last 2 games, Forest wil be safe in the play offs, with no chance of getting into the top 2 so may rest players or take it easy. Same for Brentford on the last day, knowing that they cant catch the top 2 & 3rd it is.

If we don't win on Wednesday then I fear we are down. Wigan have only lost once in the last 11 games or so & not conceded many.....I believe its something like 5 clean sheets out of 6 or 7 games. 

Brentford are three behind West Brom with a better Goal Difference - Realistically Brentford have to win all three games and pray West Brom lose one

stoneroses19 said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Addick Addict said:

As interesting an exercise as this is, if we do go down it will have nothing to do with the mathematics. It will be because we have wasted the numerous chances that we have had to get enough points - by winning games. 6 points gained from the first 2 games back has now turned into 7 from 6.

But the real mathematics are that we have scored 3 goals in our last 9 games - this return is an "F" for failure!

Will also be because of our inability to see out games.

Injury time goals conceded to Bristol City, Millwall, Sheff Weds, Huddersfield, Hull cost us 6 points. We'd already be safe.

Someone worked this out last week and with the goals we’ve scored late on, we’d only be 1 point up. Of course that 1 point would be helpful.

Who have we scored injury time goals against to save us points?

I can only think of the away games at West Brom and QPR to save us a draw. So that's 2 points saved and 6 lost. 

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

stoneroses19 said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

Addick Addict said:

As interesting an exercise as this is, if we do go down it will have nothing to do with the mathematics. It will be because we have wasted the numerous chances that we have had to get enough points - by winning games. 6 points gained from the first 2 games back has now turned into 7 from 6.

But the real mathematics are that we have scored 3 goals in our last 9 games - this return is an "F" for failure!

Will also be because of our inability to see out games.

Injury time goals conceded to Bristol City, Millwall, Sheff Weds, Huddersfield, Hull cost us 6 points. We'd already be safe.

Someone worked this out last week and with the goals we’ve scored late on, we’d only be 1 point up. Of course that 1 point would be helpful.

Who have we scored injury time goals against to save us points?

I can only think of the away games at West Brom and QPR to save us a draw. So that's 2 points saved and 6 lost. 

Not only that, but the last minute equaliser that Hull got at the Valley could prove very vital. That's 3 more points we would have over them in that game alone.

sralan said:

Birmingham are there for the taking next week. If we can't beat them we don't deserve to stay up.

Again, as @Dave Rudd says, all runs have to end sometimes. Birmingham are on a bad run atm so expect to see them come good on Wednesday. I'm thinking of bunging on £5 for them to win. 

golfaddick said:

sralan said:

Birmingham are there for the taking next week. If we can't beat them we don't deserve to stay up.

Again, as @Dave Rudd says, all runs have to end sometimes. Birmingham are on a bad run atm so expect to see them come good on Wednesday. I'm thinking of bunging on £5 for them to win. 

You'll make £6 profit . They are favourites at 11-8

Covered End said:

Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.

That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!

I feel Sorry for Lee Bowyer,
he has no proper management,  no proper Strikers
and No luck against stupid referee decisions
.
Lyle Twat Taylor if he was intelligent would have scored at least three Goals since we started back.
made a name for himself and kept us up.
then he could get a better deal elsewhere and his new boss would trust him.

we have a 50/50 change of survival we cannot score goals so it’s going to be very difficult 👎

killerandflash said:

Covered End said:

Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.

That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!

It's actually 11 games now after yesterday.

Birmingham are winless post-lockdown, have only 1 home win in 14 games, no clean sheet at home since October and have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 5 home games.

Also post lockdown, we've won at Hull, got a good draw at Cardiff and lost narrowly at Brentford.

Cannot see why Birmingham should be favourites.

StigThundercock said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

killerandflash said:

Covered End said:

Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.

That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!

It's actually 11 games now after yesterday.

Birmingham are winless post-lockdown, have only 1 home win in 14 games, no clean sheet at home since October and have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 5 home games.

Also post lockdown, we've won at Hull, got a good draw at Cardiff and lost narrowly at Brentford.

Cannot see why Birmingham should be favourites.

you've not watched our last 4 games then?

in fairness, we have remained competitive in each and every game. Millwall are a curse, we gave Brentford a scare and should have at least earned a draw from Reading. Our destiny remains in our hands.

StigThundercock said:

Chris_from_Sidcup said:

killerandflash said:

Covered End said:

Brum are hot favs at 13/10.
The draw & CAFC to win 5/2.

That's baffling for a team which hasn't won any of its last 10 matches!

It's actually 11 games now after yesterday.

Birmingham are winless post-lockdown, have only 1 home win in 14 games, no clean sheet at home since October and have conceded 3 goals in each of their last 5 home games.

Also post lockdown, we've won at Hull, got a good draw at Cardiff and lost narrowly at Brentford.

Cannot see why Birmingham should be favourites.

you've not watched our last 4 games then?

Yes. Good point at Cardiff, admittedly shit v Millwall as usual but Bonne should've scored and a draw would've probably been fair, led Brentford (form team in the division) for ages and could've got a point, robbed by the ref v Reading and a draw would've been fair.

We're always in games. Birmingham are getting soundly beaten most games.

So if we fail to beat them we are shit 

iaitch said:

Are we going to slowly slip away or go down screaming?

Fall like a fat bloke on ice (or Gemma collins)