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The mathematics of relegation
Comments
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Not this season. You have to go back to WembleyChris_from_Sidcup said:
Have we won a game in which we've conceded first?iaitch said:Beat Bristol City over Christmas 3-2 after being 2-1 behind.0 -
Am I right that as it stands:
The Rule Breakers
Wigan can get a total of 51 points (post 12pt deduction) - Still to face Charlton and Fulham
Sheffield can only get a max of 50 points (post 12pt deduction - if it will even be applied) - Still to face Fulham and Middlesborough
The Slackers
Barnsley can only get a total of 49 points - Facing Forest and Brentford
Luton can only get a max of 51 - but must beat Hull to do so otherwise 49 points - facing Blackburn in the final fixture
Hull can only get a max of 51 - but must beat Luton to do so otherwise 49 points - facing Cardiff in the final fixture
The Drowned Haddocks
Charlton can achieve 53 points facing Wigan and Leeds.
The Yorkie Terriers
Huddersfield can achieve 54 points, but have to overcome West Brom and Millwall to do so.
Meaning the perfect results are
Charlton vs Wigan - Charlton
Sheffield vs Fulham - Fulham
Barnsley vs Forest - Anything but a win.
Luton vs Hull - Draw
Huddersfield vs WestBrom - West Brom
(Charlton Safe, Barnsley Relegated)
Wigan vs Fulham - Fulham
Sheffield vs Middlesborough - M'Boro
Barnsley vs Brentford - Anything.
Luton vs Blackburn - B'Burn
Hull vs Cardiff - Cardiff
Charlton vs Leeds - Charlton Obvs - but in the prediction I've given it to Leeds
Huddersfield vs Millwall - Millwall
I think this ends up with
16 - Stoke - 50pts
17 - Charlton - 50pts
18 - Birmingham - 50pts
19 - Huddersfield - 48pts
20 - Hull - 46pts
21 - Luton - 46pts
22 - Wigan (R) - 45pts (57pts)
23 - Sheffield Wednesday (R) - 44pts (56pts)
24 - Barnsley (R) - 43pts
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In another prediction I've run I've allowed all the current relegation rivals to get max points, but where they play relegation rivals a draw is given - Wednesday lose both... Just because and Wigan pick up a win and a draw:
16 - Birmingham - 56pts
17 - QPR - 54pts
18 - Hudds - 54pts
19 - Charlton - 51 pts
20 - Wigan - 49pts (61pts)
21 - Barnsley - 49 pts
22 - Luton (R) - 49pts
23 - Hull (R) - 49 points
24 - Sheffield Wednesday (R) - 44pts (56pts)
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I'm not running the worst case scenario for all or any team...
Supa Dupa head burying in the sand.
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Why are Wigan relegated on 49 points ?? They have a much better goal difference than the other teams on 49.Dazzler21 said:In another prediction I've run I've allowed all the current relegation rivals to get max points, but where they play relegation rivals a draw is given - Wednesday lose both... Just because and Wigan pick up a win and a draw:
16 - Birmingham - 56pts
17 - QPR - 54pts
18 - Hudds - 54pts
19 - Charlton - 51 pts
20 - Wigan (R) - 49pts (61pts)
21 - Barnsley - 49 pts
22 - Luton - 49pts
23 - Hull (R) - 49 points
24 - Sheffield Wednesday (R) - 44pts (56pts)0 -
I forgot to remove the R but I won't mind if they're relegated ahead of Luton and Barnsley.golfaddick said:
Why are Wigan relegated on 49 points ?? They have a much better goal difference than the other teams on 49.Dazzler21 said:In another prediction I've run I've allowed all the current relegation rivals to get max points, but where they play relegation rivals a draw is given - Wednesday lose both... Just because and Wigan pick up a win and a draw:
16 - Birmingham - 56pts
17 - QPR - 54pts
18 - Hudds - 54pts
19 - Charlton - 51 pts
20 - Wigan (R) - 49pts (61pts)
21 - Barnsley - 49 pts
22 - Luton - 49pts
23 - Hull (R) - 49 points
24 - Sheffield Wednesday (R) - 44pts (56pts)0 -
Shut up wallybraingolfaddick said:
You obviously don't know him then.....Dave Rudd said:
We chose R for Relegation. And there are two numbers (R and R') to deal with the fact that we don't yet know about the fate of Wigan.jimmymelrose said:
Hmmmmm. OK but why use the same letter for two different things? Why not X&Z for example?Friend Or Defoe said:
Read the first post of the thread.jimmymelrose said:What's R&R?
Tomorrow's game is massive, lose and we're in deep trouble, win and we put Birmingham in danger and give ourselves some wiggle room.
I guess if we'd chosen X and Y, someone might have said "why use different letters for the same thing?"
Not you, of course ... but someone.3 -
No.0
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No need to worry about every other team.Dazzler21 said:In another prediction I've run I've allowed all the current relegation rivals to get max points, but where they play relegation rivals a draw is given - Wednesday lose both... Just because and Wigan pick up a win and a draw:
16 - Birmingham - 56pts
17 - QPR - 54pts
18 - Hudds - 54pts
19 - Charlton - 51 pts
20 - Wigan - 49pts (61pts)
21 - Barnsley - 49 pts
22 - Luton (R) - 49pts
23 - Hull (R) - 49 points
24 - Sheffield Wednesday (R) - 44pts (56pts)
The only 2 perfect results we need are, we beat Wigan and Hull/Luton draw. Then we're safe despite any results elsewhere.0 -
After the 2-2 draw with Wigan, both R and R' drop to 4.
That will change after the Hull City v Luton game.1 - Sponsored links:
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If Fulham and hull or Luton win, we will be safe providing the massive get there 12 point deduction.0
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They will not get a 12 point deduction.WelshAddick said:If Fulham and hull or Luton win, we will be safe providing the massive get there 12 point deduction.2 -
It will be at least 12 points1
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A point at Leeds should be enough unless final day results go heavily against us.0
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The EFL don't have the balls to do it , especially at this time of the season.WelshAddick said:It will be at least 12 points2 -
Let's see what grandad "the Oracle" has to say on our VC tomorrow 👍❤️Callumcafc said:A point at Leeds should be enough unless final day results go heavily against us.1 -
Match Luton and Wigan's results and stay up assuming Barnsley don't beat Forest tomorrow.0
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The Luton win at Hull means that R is now =2 (Wigan and Barnsley are the critical teams), while R' stays at 4 (Luton are critical).
With only one game each to go now, and with our Goal Difference being so much better than all of the rivals (except Wigan), I'm prepared to take a point off R'.2 -
"Only" need to match the worst one of them...Henry Irving said:Match Luton and Wigan's results and stay up assuming Barnsley don't beat Forest tomorrow.
Wigan Vs Fulham gives me more hope than Luton Vs Blackburn2 -
It’s better than that. Wigan must win, a draw (even if us and Luton lose) isn’t good enough for them.2
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Whilst Fulham will know that nothing less than a win means they're doomed to the Play-Offs
Of course they need West Brom / Brentford to lose but bet they'll feel stupid if that happens and they've taken their foot off the gas as they've not expected it
Bet thats the one that SKY will pick for coverage0 -
After last night's sparkling win, you can no longer (easily) get a price on us to be relegated. If you could, it would be in excess of 100/1.
However, we are not mathematically safe, of course. As it stands Gillingham could get 57 points, so the 'R' number (see original post on this thread for the explanation) is currently 15 (that's the 58 we need to be mathematically safe less the 43 points that we already have).
Note that this 'R' number will decrease as we gain points, but also as Gillingham (or whoever replaces them as the critical team) drop points.
As others have said, we may already have enough points to survive. It's a strange season.1 -
With 3 teams needing to achieve at least 10 points from 8 or 9 remaining fixtures, when they've not achieved 1 point per game thus far, makes Charlton's risk of relegation very small indeed. Not nil, but very small. Between them Fleetwood and Wimbledon have achieved a total of 2 points in their last 5 (each) fixtures. Even if Gillingham maintained their current rate of return and surpassed Charlton's points total, it looks most unlikely that the other 4 between us and them will all transform their form by the required factor.Dave Rudd said:After last night's sparkling win, you can no longer (easily) get a price on us to be relegated. If you could, it would be in excess of 100/1.
However, we are not mathematically safe, of course. As it stands Gillingham could get 57 points, so the 'R' number (see original post on this thread for the explanation) is currently 15 (that's the 58 we need to be mathematically safe less the 43 points that we already have).
Note that this 'R' number will decrease as we gain points, but also as Gillingham (or whoever replaces them as the critical team) drop points.
As others have said, we may already have enough points to survive. It's a strange season.
Which is all very meagre consolation indeed. Our likely points return (at current rates) of 53 points would rarely avoid relegation from League 1 and would almost never achieve anything as lofty as 16th. Indeed only 5 of the 8 teams below us have scored fewer goals. Rarely have so many sides scored so few points this far into a season.1 -
53 points does not usually get you relegated (not once in the last 10 years, internet is too slow to go back further but it is certainly rare). 50 and you can look over your shoulder.Billy_Mix said:
With 3 teams needing to achieve at least 10 points from 8 or 9 remaining fixtures, when they've not achieved 1 point per game thus far, makes Charlton's risk of relegation very small indeed. Not nil, but very small. Between them Fleetwood and Wimbledon have achieved a total of 2 points in their last 5 (each) fixtures. Even if Gillingham maintained their current rate of return and surpassed Charlton's points total, it looks most unlikely that the other 4 between us and them will all transform their form by the required factor.Dave Rudd said:After last night's sparkling win, you can no longer (easily) get a price on us to be relegated. If you could, it would be in excess of 100/1.
However, we are not mathematically safe, of course. As it stands Gillingham could get 57 points, so the 'R' number (see original post on this thread for the explanation) is currently 15 (that's the 58 we need to be mathematically safe less the 43 points that we already have).
Note that this 'R' number will decrease as we gain points, but also as Gillingham (or whoever replaces them as the critical team) drop points.
As others have said, we may already have enough points to survive. It's a strange season.
Which is all very meagre consolation indeed. Our likely points return (at current rates) of 53 points would rarely avoid relegation from League 1 and would almost never achieve anything as lofty as 16th. Indeed only 5 of the 8 teams below us have scored fewer goals. Rarely have so many sides scored so few points this far into a season.0 -
I would go out on a limb and say the team finishing 4th from bottom will not get more than 45 points0
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I’ve just gone right back to 96/97 season, nobody from then (and likely before) has gone down in the 3rd tier with 53 points, Torquay and Grimsby were relegated closest in 04/05 & 03/04 with 51 & 50 respectivelymoutuakilla said:
53 points does not usually get you relegated (not once in the last 10 years, internet is too slow to go back further but it is certainly rare). 50 and you can look over your shoulder.Billy_Mix said:
With 3 teams needing to achieve at least 10 points from 8 or 9 remaining fixtures, when they've not achieved 1 point per game thus far, makes Charlton's risk of relegation very small indeed. Not nil, but very small. Between them Fleetwood and Wimbledon have achieved a total of 2 points in their last 5 (each) fixtures. Even if Gillingham maintained their current rate of return and surpassed Charlton's points total, it looks most unlikely that the other 4 between us and them will all transform their form by the required factor.Dave Rudd said:After last night's sparkling win, you can no longer (easily) get a price on us to be relegated. If you could, it would be in excess of 100/1.
However, we are not mathematically safe, of course. As it stands Gillingham could get 57 points, so the 'R' number (see original post on this thread for the explanation) is currently 15 (that's the 58 we need to be mathematically safe less the 43 points that we already have).
Note that this 'R' number will decrease as we gain points, but also as Gillingham (or whoever replaces them as the critical team) drop points.
As others have said, we may already have enough points to survive. It's a strange season.
Which is all very meagre consolation indeed. Our likely points return (at current rates) of 53 points would rarely avoid relegation from League 1 and would almost never achieve anything as lofty as 16th. Indeed only 5 of the 8 teams below us have scored fewer goals. Rarely have so many sides scored so few points this far into a season.2 -
Today's win coupled with the two points dropped by Gillingham sees the 'R' number reduced to 10.1
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Are you going to serve up this tripe after every match? The team finishing 21st will not get 46 points.Dave Rudd said:Today's win coupled with the two points dropped by Gillingham sees the 'R' number reduced to 10.2 -
I for one like Daves thread...dont listen to him Dave!2
