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The mathematics of relegation

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  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    bolloxbolder said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Today's win coupled with the two points dropped by Gillingham sees the 'R' number reduced to 10.
    Are you going to serve up this tripe after every match? The team finishing 21st will not get 46 points.
    I agree with you.

    What will they get?
  • Stig
    Stig Posts: 29,539
    edited March 2022
    bolloxbolder said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Today's win coupled with the two points dropped by Gillingham sees the 'R' number reduced to 10.
    Are you going to serve up this tripe after every match? The team finishing 21st will not get 46 points.
    More than a bit harsh.

    By its very nature this is one of those 'what you see is what you get' threads. I hope he keeps going and isn't put off.

  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 35,248
    bolloxbolder said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Today's win coupled with the two points dropped by Gillingham sees the 'R' number reduced to 10.
    Are you going to serve up this tripe after every match? The team finishing 21st will not get 46 points.
    Conversely, the teams in the play offs could need more than 75 points. I reckon 6th might even need 78 points.
  • SouthWest_Addicks
    SouthWest_Addicks Posts: 6,327
    golfaddick said:
    bolloxbolder said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Today's win coupled with the two points dropped by Gillingham sees the 'R' number reduced to 10.
    Are you going to serve up this tripe after every match? The team finishing 21st will not get 46 points.
    Conversely, the teams in the play offs could need more than 75 points. I reckon 6th might even need 78 points.
    Shows what we all assumed from the start. Top teams have improved and the weaker teams are much worse. Crewe would need to 5 of their last 8 to reach Bristol Rovers points total from last season who finished bottom. Embarrassing that we lost to them.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    edited March 2022



    For those who enjoy a healthy dose of tripe, please note that today's 18-0 1-0 win at Doncaster sees the 'R number' reduced from 10 to six.

    This is in part due to AFC Wimbledon now replacing Gillingham as the 'critical team'.
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 45,075
    Really disappointing. It's last chance saloon for clinging on to our faint hope of being relegated.

    Come on lads, we can still do it .... but we all need to pull together.


  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    With apologies for the late dose of tripe (we've been up North for a wedding), the R number is now down to 4 and Gillingham are back as the 'critical team'.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    R plummets to 3.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    R is now well and truly equal to zero.  We are mathematically safe.

    This thread now ends until we flirt with relegation from the Premier League.
  • Oggy Red
    Oggy Red Posts: 45,075

    Relegation? ...... Epic fail.



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  • Dave2l
    Dave2l Posts: 8,880
    Dave Rudd said:
    R is now well and truly equal to zero.  We are mathematically safe.

    This thread now ends until we flirt with relegation from the Premier League.

    Can imagine Big Sam wearing an anorak with a Charlton badge on it.

    Parachute payments here we come 😁💸💸
  • Off_it
    Off_it Posts: 29,198
    Dave Rudd said:
    R is now well and truly equal to zero.  We are mathematically safe.

    This thread now ends until we flirt with relegation from the Premier League.
    The R number is zero? Excellent. Does that mean we're now Covid free? 
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    This thread divided opinion when it was launched during the 'Great Battle Against Relegation' in 2020.

    It may be entertaining to look back at those historic days ... Covid, tripe and points deductions that may potentially be overturned.  The World moves full circle.

    But, for those who enjoy such things, today's fabulous result (and this is why we love our team) means that the 2025-26 season R number currently stands at 22.  Remember, this reduces as we collect points and if our 'critical rivals' drop points (currently Leicester and Oxford, although this can and probably will change).

    When R=0 we are mathematically safe.

    Ignoring mathematical certainty, the current League table indicates that 46 points will be enough, but I wouldn't count on that.  There will be death throes as the condemned try to avoid their Fate.  You are seeing a bit of that with Oxford now.

    I'll happily update the R number if that hits the spot with most.  For those who dislike such 'tripe' ... maybe check out the '£5 pint' thread instead?
  • Stig
    Stig Posts: 29,539
    I used to really like the R number thing. Would like to see it again. Cheers for the offer DR.
  • usetobunkin
    usetobunkin Posts: 2,385
    Absolutely love this kind of thread. Please do your research. R22, seems high for 9/10 games left. 
  • lordromford
    lordromford Posts: 8,169
    edited March 8
    usetobunkin said:
    Absolutely love this kind of thread. Please do your research. R22, seems high for 9/10 games left. 
    I think you’re thinking realistically rather than theoretically.
    Yes, 22 points is almost certainly more than we’ll need, but the number is, I suspect, calculated on the assumption that all but one of the teams below us (disregarding Sheff Wed here) maximise their points haul. This is my assumption, but I’m sure @Dave Rudd could elaborate.

    It’s possible that it might be slightly less than 22 due to clubs playing each other, but given we’re 9 clear of relegation with 30 left to play for, 22 sounds believable to me.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    lordromford said:
    usetobunkin said:
    Absolutely love this kind of thread. Please do your research. R22, seems high for 9/10 games left. 
    I think you’re thinking realistically rather than theoretically.
    Yes, 22 points is almost certainly more than we’ll need, but the number is, I suspect, calculated on the assumption that all but one of the teams below us (disregarding Sheff Wed here) maximise their points haul. This is my assumption, but I’m sure @Dave Rudd could elaborate.

    It’s possible that it might be slightly less than 22 due to clubs playing each other, but given we’re 9 clear of relegation with 30 left to play for, 22 sounds believable to me.

    Yes, as the original post tries to explain, mathematical certainty assumes that maximum points are accrued by the three 'critical teams' (that is, the three teams who have the poorest records at present).  Every time that these teams fail to win, then the target (R number) is potentially reduced.  It is also reduced (obviously) when we get points.

    This season, we can discount Sheff Wed as they are already relegated, so Oxford and Leicester are currently the 'critical teams'.  Note that there are two because they both have 35 points from 36 games.  Often there will only be one critical team (the least worst of the two remaining), so the R number will be dependent on their potential maximum points total.  Also, the 'critical teams' can change ... Leicester and/or Oxford could easily be replaced by West Brom, Blackburn etc.

    The current R number will potentially be reduced even when we are not playing, but the next update will be provided after the Wednesday fixtures.

    Points of detail ... at the moment I have ignored the effect of Goal Difference and the permutations where other potential 'critical teams' are due to play each other.  With ten games to go, it's a bit early for that.  Note that Leicester and Oxford have already met twice, so the R number of 22 is currently correct.


    Right, I'm off to have another crack at the smooth four-dimensional Poincaré conjecture. 

    That should be much easier.

  • sam3110
    sam3110 Posts: 22,490
    You and swords alive should start your own forum to discuss endless bollocks about numbers that actually mean way less than just looking at the actual table
  • Leroy Ambrose
    Leroy Ambrose Posts: 14,593
    sam3110 said:
    You and swords alive should start your own forum to discuss endless bollocks about numbers that actually mean way less than just looking at the actual table

  • lordromford
    lordromford Posts: 8,169
    sam3110 said:
    You and swords alive should start your own forum to discuss endless bollocks about numbers that actually mean way less than just looking at the actual table
    Unfair and unnecessarily twatty comment.

    I am inclined to concede that the comparison stuff that swordsalive writes (with no disrespect meant) is pretty meaningless to me. There’s no target, or benefit to applying the analysis that I can see. Having said that, he likes it, so crack on @swords_alive

    The difference for me with what @Dave Rudd is doing is that there’s a nice concrete number that gets chipped away each week. It’s quite satisfying to follow the critical number diminishing (hopefully) to zero, when we’ll be able to actually celebrate staying up.

    If you’re not interested in that, that’s fine, but others are. Your lack of interest doesn’t make it bollocks.

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  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 35,248
    sam3110 said:
    You and swords alive should start your own forum to discuss endless bollocks about numbers that actually mean way less than just looking at the actual table
    At least this one makes sense. The other one is bollox purely because it takes no account as to when each team played each other.
  • swords_alive
    swords_alive Posts: 4,721
    golfaddick said:
    sam3110 said:
    You and swords alive should start your own forum to discuss endless bollocks about numbers that actually mean way less than just looking at the actual table
    At least this one makes sense. The other one is bollox purely because it takes no account as to when each team played each other.
    No, it takes into account actual results. i.e baked in to the table. That 'actual table' you put your faith in is a deception. But i'm not here to argue. I will enjoy David Rudd's method as it unfolds.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    sam3110 said:
    You and swords alive should start your own forum to discuss endless bollocks about numbers that actually mean way less than just looking at the actual table

    Glad that you're enjoying it.

    Like I said, this thread divided opinion when it was launched during the 'Great Battle Against Relegation' in 2020.

    For those who dislike such 'tripe' ... maybe check out the '£5 pint' thread instead?
  • Alwaysneil
    Alwaysneil Posts: 14,222
    Not a difficult concept, although I was initally surprised at 22 but thinking about it that must be right as that is us winning zero points and everyone below us apart from bottom 2 getting maximum points.

    So fingers crossed if we pick up points and they don't it will come down very quickly. 
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    Alwaysneil said:
    Not a difficult concept, although I was initally surprised at 22 but thinking about it that must be right as that is us winning zero points and everyone below us apart from bottom 2 getting maximum points.

    So fingers crossed if we pick up points and they don't it will come down very quickly. 

    Ker - ching!
  • usetobunkin
    usetobunkin Posts: 2,385
    I have an elegant solution to Poincaré Conjecture, but it is too large for the margin 
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 35,248
    Alwaysneil said:
    Not a difficult concept, although I was initally surprised at 22 but thinking about it that must be right as that is us winning zero points and everyone below us apart from bottom 2 getting maximum points.

    So fingers crossed if we pick up points and they don't it will come down very quickly. 
    I also like looking at the current form guide as per the BBC Championship table. Shows how we've picked up more points than the other relegation contenders (apart from Oxford who have picked up 8, same as us) over the last 6 matches. 

    Since the start of the year I dont think we've been any less than 4 points off 22nd place and currently its 9. It's mostly swung between 5 & 7 so currently we are improving to where we were on Jan 1st.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,951
    usetobunkin said:
    I have an elegant solution to Poincaré Conjecture, but it is too large for the margin 

    Looks like it was solved in 2010.  To think of the hours I've wasted.

    Fancy having a go at the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture over a pint one night?
  • usetobunkin
    usetobunkin Posts: 2,385
    edited March 8
    Dave Rudd said:
    usetobunkin said:
    I have an elegant solution to Poincaré Conjecture, but it is too large for the margin 

    Looks like it was solved in 2010.  To think of the hours I've wasted.

    Fancy having a go at the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture over a pint one night?
    Find Fermat Solution by Wyles difficult to get my head around. 
    As for SwD , don’t even understand the question.
    But I would be interested to know if quantum computing could crack it.

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