Summer Transfer Rumours - Deadline Day p446

NabySarr said:

Swisdom said:

NabySarr said:

Cafc43v3r said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Things like assists, completed passes etc etc should be exactly the stats being picked up by the black box gizmo. 

We pick them up, but can't (or wont) interpret them.  That's the problem.

Some of our players got assists for passing the ball 10 yards to JRS who then beat 3 men and scored from 15 yards.  Some of our other players beat 3 men and crossed the ball to find Stockley still on the half way line or Bonne missing the ball.

Yes use data to narrow down the field but you need to identify what you want each player, in each position, to do then find someone capable of doing it.  You can't do that on data alone.   It's a tool, not the solution.

Assists is quite a simplistic stat and I would hope our analysis department uses more advanced data such as ExpectedAssists or ExpectedThreat that are more of an indicator of a players creative quality

You can do what you say there on data alone, but then you also need the eye test and character test to form the final opinion on whether to sign a player. 

A lot of modern scouting is purely on stats, Xg, Xa, Xs - but you still need to see a player in the flesh.  See their impact on the game.  Listen to their contributions.

I always remember a stat about a player who had more flat-out sprints than anyone else on the pitch.  Must be a hard worker you'd think.  It turned out he used to sprint to take the corners but was actually a lazy bugger.  Obviously that's an outlier but as with anything stats can often hide the real truth.  

100% I agree. But it’s a lot easier to cover more players if you are filtering them using stats and then watching games/clips of them, which is where a lot of the work will be done. And I was more making the point that it’s a lot more advanced than the stats that are readily available to the public. 

Holden does sound like he has a good balance between old school and new school though which is why I’m looking forward to seeing how he recruits if he gets better backing and a better recruitment team behind him 

Swisdom said:

NabySarr said:

Swisdom said:

NabySarr said:

Cafc43v3r said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Things like assists, completed passes etc etc should be exactly the stats being picked up by the black box gizmo. 

We pick them up, but can't (or wont) interpret them.  That's the problem.

Some of our players got assists for passing the ball 10 yards to JRS who then beat 3 men and scored from 15 yards.  Some of our other players beat 3 men and crossed the ball to find Stockley still on the half way line or Bonne missing the ball.

Yes use data to narrow down the field but you need to identify what you want each player, in each position, to do then find someone capable of doing it.  You can't do that on data alone.   It's a tool, not the solution.

Assists is quite a simplistic stat and I would hope our analysis department uses more advanced data such as ExpectedAssists or ExpectedThreat that are more of an indicator of a players creative quality

You can do what you say there on data alone, but then you also need the eye test and character test to form the final opinion on whether to sign a player. 

A lot of modern scouting is purely on stats, Xg, Xa, Xs - but you still need to see a player in the flesh.  See their impact on the game.  Listen to their contributions.

I always remember a stat about a player who had more flat-out sprints than anyone else on the pitch.  Must be a hard worker you'd think.  It turned out he used to sprint to take the corners but was actually a lazy bugger.  Obviously that's an outlier but as with anything stats can often hide the real truth.  

100% I agree. But it’s a lot easier to cover more players if you are filtering them using stats and then watching games/clips of them, which is where a lot of the work will be done. And I was more making the point that it’s a lot more advanced than the stats that are readily available to the public. 

Holden does sound like he has a good balance between old school and new school though which is why I’m looking forward to seeing how he recruits if he gets better backing and a better recruitment team behind him 

I did a number of scouting courses over the last few years.
The younger lads were obsessed with the stats
The older chaps were all about "seeing the whites of the player's eyes"

Neither are right or wrong in moderation but both aspects play a part in scouting of a player.  And a healthy splash of instinct too.  And a huge bit of desire.

I always remember a player I saw 2 years ago playing for Rochester.  He was electric.  Fast, skillful, two good feet.  From the other side of the pitch he was like an unpolished Cristiano.
In the second half I went close to the sideline to watch him closely and listen to him.  Within 10 minutes I could see why he played at that level.  He was laughing and joking wih his mates on the sideline.  They were talking about the girls he was going to take back to his caravan and explaining how much cocaine he intended to do to give one of them a "roight seeing to".
If I'd just looked at his stats i might have been taken in by him but when you see the whole piucture you can make a much better summary of a player.

Needless to say I couldn'trecommend him to a club.  A bit iof a shame becaue he was very talented but his application just wasn't there.

NabySarr said:

Swisdom said:

NabySarr said:

Cafc43v3r said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Things like assists, completed passes etc etc should be exactly the stats being picked up by the black box gizmo. 

We pick them up, but can't (or wont) interpret them.  That's the problem.

Some of our players got assists for passing the ball 10 yards to JRS who then beat 3 men and scored from 15 yards.  Some of our other players beat 3 men and crossed the ball to find Stockley still on the half way line or Bonne missing the ball.

Yes use data to narrow down the field but you need to identify what you want each player, in each position, to do then find someone capable of doing it.  You can't do that on data alone.   It's a tool, not the solution.

Assists is quite a simplistic stat and I would hope our analysis department uses more advanced data such as ExpectedAssists or ExpectedThreat that are more of an indicator of a players creative quality

You can do what you say there on data alone, but then you also need the eye test and character test to form the final opinion on whether to sign a player. 

A lot of modern scouting is purely on stats, Xg, Xa, Xs - but you still need to see a player in the flesh.  See their impact on the game.  Listen to their contributions.

I always remember a stat about a player who had more flat-out sprints than anyone else on the pitch.  Must be a hard worker you'd think.  It turned out he used to sprint to take the corners but was actually a lazy bugger.  Obviously that's an outlier but as with anything stats can often hide the real truth.  

100% I agree. But it’s a lot easier to cover more players if you are filtering them using stats and then watching games/clips of them, which is where a lot of the work will be done. And I was more making the point that it’s a lot more advanced than the stats that are readily available to the public. 

Holden does sound like he has a good balance between old school and new school though which is why I’m looking forward to seeing how he recruits if he gets better backing and a better recruitment team behind him 

ShootersHillGuru said:

Swisdom said:

NabySarr said:

Swisdom said:

NabySarr said:

Cafc43v3r said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Things like assists, completed passes etc etc should be exactly the stats being picked up by the black box gizmo. 

We pick them up, but can't (or wont) interpret them.  That's the problem.

Some of our players got assists for passing the ball 10 yards to JRS who then beat 3 men and scored from 15 yards.  Some of our other players beat 3 men and crossed the ball to find Stockley still on the half way line or Bonne missing the ball.

Yes use data to narrow down the field but you need to identify what you want each player, in each position, to do then find someone capable of doing it.  You can't do that on data alone.   It's a tool, not the solution.

Assists is quite a simplistic stat and I would hope our analysis department uses more advanced data such as ExpectedAssists or ExpectedThreat that are more of an indicator of a players creative quality

You can do what you say there on data alone, but then you also need the eye test and character test to form the final opinion on whether to sign a player. 

A lot of modern scouting is purely on stats, Xg, Xa, Xs - but you still need to see a player in the flesh.  See their impact on the game.  Listen to their contributions.

I always remember a stat about a player who had more flat-out sprints than anyone else on the pitch.  Must be a hard worker you'd think.  It turned out he used to sprint to take the corners but was actually a lazy bugger.  Obviously that's an outlier but as with anything stats can often hide the real truth.  

100% I agree. But it’s a lot easier to cover more players if you are filtering them using stats and then watching games/clips of them, which is where a lot of the work will be done. And I was more making the point that it’s a lot more advanced than the stats that are readily available to the public. 

Holden does sound like he has a good balance between old school and new school though which is why I’m looking forward to seeing how he recruits if he gets better backing and a better recruitment team behind him 

I did a number of scouting courses over the last few years.
The younger lads were obsessed with the stats
The older chaps were all about "seeing the whites of the player's eyes"

Neither are right or wrong in moderation but both aspects play a part in scouting of a player.  And a healthy splash of instinct too.  And a huge bit of desire.

I always remember a player I saw 2 years ago playing for Rochester.  He was electric.  Fast, skillful, two good feet.  From the other side of the pitch he was like an unpolished Cristiano.
In the second half I went close to the sideline to watch him closely and listen to him.  Within 10 minutes I could see why he played at that level.  He was laughing and joking wih his mates on the sideline.  They were talking about the girls he was going to take back to his caravan and explaining how much cocaine he intended to do to give one of them a "roight seeing to".
If I'd just looked at his stats i might have been taken in by him but when you see the whole piucture you can make a much better summary of a player.

Needless to say I couldn'trecommend him to a club.  A bit iof a shame becaue he was very talented but his application just wasn't there.

Did you get any of the girls names Swis ? Asking for a friend.

Swisdom said:

NabySarr said:

Swisdom said:

NabySarr said:

Cafc43v3r said:

ShootersHillGuru said:

Things like assists, completed passes etc etc should be exactly the stats being picked up by the black box gizmo. 

We pick them up, but can't (or wont) interpret them.  That's the problem.

Some of our players got assists for passing the ball 10 yards to JRS who then beat 3 men and scored from 15 yards.  Some of our other players beat 3 men and crossed the ball to find Stockley still on the half way line or Bonne missing the ball.

Yes use data to narrow down the field but you need to identify what you want each player, in each position, to do then find someone capable of doing it.  You can't do that on data alone.   It's a tool, not the solution.

Assists is quite a simplistic stat and I would hope our analysis department uses more advanced data such as ExpectedAssists or ExpectedThreat that are more of an indicator of a players creative quality

You can do what you say there on data alone, but then you also need the eye test and character test to form the final opinion on whether to sign a player. 

A lot of modern scouting is purely on stats, Xg, Xa, Xs - but you still need to see a player in the flesh.  See their impact on the game.  Listen to their contributions.

I always remember a stat about a player who had more flat-out sprints than anyone else on the pitch.  Must be a hard worker you'd think.  It turned out he used to sprint to take the corners but was actually a lazy bugger.  Obviously that's an outlier but as with anything stats can often hide the real truth.  

100% I agree. But it’s a lot easier to cover more players if you are filtering them using stats and then watching games/clips of them, which is where a lot of the work will be done. And I was more making the point that it’s a lot more advanced than the stats that are readily available to the public. 

Holden does sound like he has a good balance between old school and new school though which is why I’m looking forward to seeing how he recruits if he gets better backing and a better recruitment team behind him 

I did a number of scouting courses over the last few years.
The younger lads were obsessed with the stats
The older chaps were all about "seeing the whites of the player's eyes"

Neither are right or wrong in moderation but both aspects play a part in scouting of a player.  And a healthy splash of instinct too.  And a huge bit of desire.

I always remember a player I saw 2 years ago playing for Rochester.  He was electric.  Fast, skillful, two good feet.  From the other side of the pitch he was like an unpolished Cristiano.
In the second half I went close to the sideline to watch him closely and listen to him.  Within 10 minutes I could see why he played at that level.  He was laughing and joking wih his mates on the sideline.  They were talking about the girls he was going to take back to his caravan and explaining how much cocaine he intended to do to give one of them a "roight seeing to".
If I'd just looked at his stats i might have been taken in by him but when you see the whole piucture you can make a much better summary of a player.

Needless to say I couldn'trecommend him to a club.  A bit iof a shame becaue he was very talented but his application just wasn't there.

Oggy Red said:

Chunes said:

wmcf123 said:

eaststandmike said:

Oh Eddie Youds... said:

Would this first 11 get promotion?

AMB

Egbo
Edun - Free from Blackburn
Hector
Tafazolli - Free from Wycombe

Fraser
Dobson
Brannagan - £1m from Oxford

Smith - Free from Cambridge
Stockton - Free from Morecambe
CBT

I like the Alfie May / Mo Eisa & Aaron Collins options but think Stockton would fit 433 better & is a low risk gamble being out of contract (that would allow us to spend any transfer budget we have on a quality CM).

Fraser and CBT look the weak links, for every good game you get from them they follow it up with 3,4,5 very average games 

To get promoted you need consistency 

Also I’d love to know when we last spent a million on a player 

I remember when we spent £1.1 million on Izale Mcleod back in 2010. 

#NeverForget

Plus Luke Varney at £2m in 2007

Callumcafc said:

killerandflash said:

Modern sport is very stats based, and analysts seem to be used everywhere. 

So much of this data is publicly available that there ought to be a fairly level playing field between comparable clubs, as all should be looking similar numbers surely? 

The TV pundits have access to a lot of this data, so they can say that Player X makes the highest number of threatening passes or makes the most overlaps.

That’s where the likes of Brighton and Brentford have got their edge over the years.

Yes all the data is publicly available (for a fee) but the clubs who pour serious resources into coming up with new in-house ways of combining the runs, the passses, the tackles & shots etc. can create more informative stats that no-one else has access to.

By going deeper to the second, third and fourth level of the data, they’re uncovering trends that the publicly available data won’t tell you.

Swisdom said:

Garrymanilow said:

Callumcafc said:

killerandflash said:

Modern sport is very stats based, and analysts seem to be used everywhere. 

So much of this data is publicly available that there ought to be a fairly level playing field between comparable clubs, as all should be looking similar numbers surely? 

The TV pundits have access to a lot of this data, so they can say that Player X makes the highest number of threatening passes or makes the most overlaps.

That’s where the likes of Brighton and Brentford have got their edge over the years.

Yes all the data is publicly available (for a fee) but the clubs who pour serious resources into coming up with new in-house ways of combining the runs, the passses, the tackles & shots etc. can create more informative stats that no-one else has access to.

By going deeper to the second, third and fourth level of the data, they’re uncovering trends that the publicly available data won’t tell you.

The interesting thing though is that these things are never continually successful and there's always an element of luck. Rasmus Ankersen, the same man who did so much great recruitment at Brentford went to Southampton and is being primarily blamed for taking them down. Too many young players with the wrong attitudes brought in and too much focus in January on potential rather than present-day returns. He used the same systems but this time it fell flat. Much like how Les Reed was a genius at Saints until it fell apart and Walsh was a god at Leicester but is seen as part of the group that started Everton's decline into what they are now. Constant reinvention and a huge amount of fortune are needed no matter how good your data and scouting set up is

Anderson’s niche was finding players who were lower value and making them higher value. Unfortunately, it’s harder when you pay more in the first place to realise higher return on their investment.
It’s a bit like how Charlton used to be. We could often unearth a diamond in the rough, but if we spent good money on a player that usually turned out to be shit I’m looking at you. Neil redfearn 

Swisdom said:

Garrymanilow said:

Callumcafc said:

killerandflash said:

Modern sport is very stats based, and analysts seem to be used everywhere. 

So much of this data is publicly available that there ought to be a fairly level playing field between comparable clubs, as all should be looking similar numbers surely? 

The TV pundits have access to a lot of this data, so they can say that Player X makes the highest number of threatening passes or makes the most overlaps.

That’s where the likes of Brighton and Brentford have got their edge over the years.

Yes all the data is publicly available (for a fee) but the clubs who pour serious resources into coming up with new in-house ways of combining the runs, the passses, the tackles & shots etc. can create more informative stats that no-one else has access to.

By going deeper to the second, third and fourth level of the data, they’re uncovering trends that the publicly available data won’t tell you.

The interesting thing though is that these things are never continually successful and there's always an element of luck. Rasmus Ankersen, the same man who did so much great recruitment at Brentford went to Southampton and is being primarily blamed for taking them down. Too many young players with the wrong attitudes brought in and too much focus in January on potential rather than present-day returns. He used the same systems but this time it fell flat. Much like how Les Reed was a genius at Saints until it fell apart and Walsh was a god at Leicester but is seen as part of the group that started Everton's decline into what they are now. Constant reinvention and a huge amount of fortune are needed no matter how good your data and scouting set up is

Anderson’s niche was finding players who were lower value and making them higher value. Unfortunately, it’s harder when you pay more in the first place to realise higher return on their investment.
It’s a bit like how Charlton used to be. We could often unearth a diamond in the rough, but if we spent good money on a player that usually turned out to be shit I’m looking at you. Neil redfearn 

Garrymanilow said:

Callumcafc said:

killerandflash said:

Modern sport is very stats based, and analysts seem to be used everywhere. 

So much of this data is publicly available that there ought to be a fairly level playing field between comparable clubs, as all should be looking similar numbers surely? 

The TV pundits have access to a lot of this data, so they can say that Player X makes the highest number of threatening passes or makes the most overlaps.

That’s where the likes of Brighton and Brentford have got their edge over the years.

Yes all the data is publicly available (for a fee) but the clubs who pour serious resources into coming up with new in-house ways of combining the runs, the passses, the tackles & shots etc. can create more informative stats that no-one else has access to.

By going deeper to the second, third and fourth level of the data, they’re uncovering trends that the publicly available data won’t tell you.

The interesting thing though is that these things are never continually successful and there's always an element of luck. Rasmus Ankersen, the same man who did so much great recruitment at Brentford went to Southampton and is being primarily blamed for taking them down. Too many young players with the wrong attitudes brought in and too much focus in January on potential rather than present-day returns. He used the same systems but this time it fell flat. Much like how Les Reed was a genius at Saints until it fell apart and Walsh was a god at Leicester but is seen as part of the group that started Everton's decline into what they are now. Constant reinvention and a huge amount of fortune are needed no matter how good your data and scouting set up is

killerandflash said:

Garrymanilow said:

Callumcafc said:

killerandflash said:

Modern sport is very stats based, and analysts seem to be used everywhere. 

So much of this data is publicly available that there ought to be a fairly level playing field between comparable clubs, as all should be looking similar numbers surely? 

The TV pundits have access to a lot of this data, so they can say that Player X makes the highest number of threatening passes or makes the most overlaps.

That’s where the likes of Brighton and Brentford have got their edge over the years.

Yes all the data is publicly available (for a fee) but the clubs who pour serious resources into coming up with new in-house ways of combining the runs, the passses, the tackles & shots etc. can create more informative stats that no-one else has access to.

By going deeper to the second, third and fourth level of the data, they’re uncovering trends that the publicly available data won’t tell you.

The interesting thing though is that these things are never continually successful and there's always an element of luck. Rasmus Ankersen, the same man who did so much great recruitment at Brentford went to Southampton and is being primarily blamed for taking them down. Too many young players with the wrong attitudes brought in and too much focus in January on potential rather than present-day returns. He used the same systems but this time it fell flat. Much like how Les Reed was a genius at Saints until it fell apart and Walsh was a god at Leicester but is seen as part of the group that started Everton's decline into what they are now. Constant reinvention and a huge amount of fortune are needed no matter how good your data and scouting set up is

And indeed Gallen after bringing in Cullen, Bielik and Gallagher on loan...

Garrymanilow said:

Swisdom said:

Garrymanilow said:

Callumcafc said:

killerandflash said:

Modern sport is very stats based, and analysts seem to be used everywhere. 

So much of this data is publicly available that there ought to be a fairly level playing field between comparable clubs, as all should be looking similar numbers surely? 

The TV pundits have access to a lot of this data, so they can say that Player X makes the highest number of threatening passes or makes the most overlaps.

That’s where the likes of Brighton and Brentford have got their edge over the years.

Yes all the data is publicly available (for a fee) but the clubs who pour serious resources into coming up with new in-house ways of combining the runs, the passses, the tackles & shots etc. can create more informative stats that no-one else has access to.

By going deeper to the second, third and fourth level of the data, they’re uncovering trends that the publicly available data won’t tell you.

The interesting thing though is that these things are never continually successful and there's always an element of luck. Rasmus Ankersen, the same man who did so much great recruitment at Brentford went to Southampton and is being primarily blamed for taking them down. Too many young players with the wrong attitudes brought in and too much focus in January on potential rather than present-day returns. He used the same systems but this time it fell flat. Much like how Les Reed was a genius at Saints until it fell apart and Walsh was a god at Leicester but is seen as part of the group that started Everton's decline into what they are now. Constant reinvention and a huge amount of fortune are needed no matter how good your data and scouting set up is

Anderson’s niche was finding players who were lower value and making them higher value. Unfortunately, it’s harder when you pay more in the first place to realise higher return on their investment.
It’s a bit like how Charlton used to be. We could often unearth a diamond in the rough, but if we spent good money on a player that usually turned out to be shit I’m looking at you. Neil redfearn 

The thing is, he's actually done quite well in discovering a new market within that niche. He started looking at surplus talented youth players at big clubs who would typically buy a new player rather than develop one, promising them first team football and the chance to move on if the right bid came in. They signed four players from City this season, the standouts being Bazunu and particularly Lavia, and before that signed Livramento from Chelsea and loaned Broja. The idea is that they'd buy these players for decent fees before they became worth a much larger sum and accept that their stays would be brief but profitable, and so far they've been quite good at identifying those sorts of players. The problem is he's failed to build adequately around it. They let some of their more experienced players go after they fell out with Hasenhuttl but failed to identify experience in key areas to play alongside the young players and set standards. If you look at that squad the only players with the kind of mentality they need to get out of this mess are Ward-Prowse and Stuart Armstrong, and only one of those is a regular starter. This time round it was a bit too much clever data and not enough recognition that they needed some grown ups in the club to help raise the children.