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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?
Comments
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Targets are needed.
It can provide focus.
But how many points required after 46 games is not at this stage particularly meaningful.
What we do need to do:
1) set a points target for the next block of fixtures .....Lee Bowyer divided the season into blocks of 9 games, with an achievable points target for each block of games.
2) win our mini-league of the teams around us ......right now, our relegation rivals.
I remember Curbs stressing the importance of this .... every point you take from a team around you, is a point they don't get.
Win against them = the proverbial '6 pointer'.
It was so careless to lose at Pompey.
We should have been able to hold a 2-0 lead at Blackburn.
We must cut this out, especially against our mini-league rivals.
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Wise words from our greatest manager of all time, he knows his stuff.Oggy Red said:Targets are needed.
It can provide focus.
But how many points required after 46 games is not at this stage particularly meaningful.
What we do need to do:
1) set a points target for the next block of fixtures .....Lee Bowyer divided the season into blocks of 9 games, with an achievable points target for each block of games.
2) win our mini-league of the teams around us ......right now, our relegation rivals.
I remember Curbs stressing the importance of this .... every point you take from a team around you, is a point they don't get.
Win against them = the proverbial '6 pointer'.
It was so careless to lose at Pompey.
We should have been able to hold a 2-0 lead at Blackburn.
We must cut this out, especially against our mini-league rivals.2 -
52 points, another 23 more. That’s
8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses
4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.1 -
You would think so, except their one win this season came at Fratton Park, which just shows how bad Portsmouth are.KingKinsella said:Looking at the last 10 Championship seasons
-you need 50 points on average for the 22nd team to displace the 21st team
-you need 48 points if you just beat 22nd place team by 1 point
So after 25 games played, we need about 21 points to make 50, so a point a game
BUT Sheffield Weds have been so poor (competitively) that we could expect most teams to get a 6 point boost to the season end total- well may be the top teams would get that anyway but that will spread to other lower teams as well.
So how many points do we need , which teams would you especially target to beat?
Any team that finishes below Portsmouth or Oxford will be relegated. I'm confident they'll be the two teams who go down with Sheff Weds.2 -
Everyone seems to think that Norwich will pull away from trouble, I'm not so sure. They did win at QPR but have lost their last 2 home games against Watford & Stoke. They are still right in trouble.1
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Watched highlights of LC vs WBA. Quality goals especially LC 1st. My impression is that they are weak defensively, but much better in attack. Are they relegation material if they can score and defence is so-so?NabySarr said:
Leicester are a really poor team this season. Only reason they aren’t down the bottom already is they have some individuals that are better than championship level. The xG table has them 3rd bottom. Our game against them summed them up, we looked a much better team but then Fatawu put one in the top corner so they wonAthletico Charlton said:
9 seems to be the reported number if found guilty on all charges. Would put them on 25. Below us. I don't know if their owners are still interested in investing in them but if not suspect they could lose some better players this month. Still likely stay up but not a foregone conclusion at that point.se9addick said:
Leicester would have to get a fairly significant deduction to end up getting relegated I think. The bigger issue is Wednesday being rubbish (rather than their points deduction per se) probably means that the teams that finish 23rd & 22nd may have higher points than normal because the should be picking up higher points than average from the team in 24th.JustFloydRoad said:I'll post what I was going to post in there (before the Admin starts closing down duplicate threads):Chatting to my steward Charlton (he lives in Woolwich and claims to support Charlton now) friend and he said we are 11 points of the playoffs.
I laughed and said we are 5 points of Norwich (and that is what matters)
Usually 50 points should be enough to stay in the Championship
We are 21 points behind that figure. Could getting less help?
Does Sheffield Wednesday (and potentially Leicester) getting a points deduction change things?
All in all it’s really hard to predict exactly how many points we’ll need (as this thread proves) but if we get to 51 points with a decent GD and end up relegated we can count ourselves hard done by.They also started the season well and then their form has fallen off, last 9 games they have 10 points which is around relegation levels of performance. A 9 point deduction would put them in big trouble with a toxic fanbase and players that probably already want out0 -
It’s annoying but I’m surprised he lasted as long as he did to be honestHastingsRed said:
WBA....Ryan Mason gone.Garrymanilow said:The target is always 50 points and then whatever we can get on top of that. The frustration is not getting the win over Blackburn and at least drawing against Pompey as I don't see Norwich and Sheffield Utd staying in the mix. Swansea could improve as well, the one to watch is West Brom, it will all depend on when they finally give up on Ryan Mason. I think Oxford, Pompey and Blackburn are the ones we need to pray don't have any kind of turnaround and we should be ok. Getting 4 points off Blackburn is good, we need to ensure we get 3 off Pompey and at least 4, preferably 6 off Oxford and then force as many home wins as possible. There's always interesting stuff that can happen at the end of the season as well, we might play some teams who are safe but not bothering the play-offs while we're aggressively looking for points to stay up and get some unexpected away wins as a result0 -
Don't even need a point more than 22nd. Just a better GD.Oggy Red said:Q: How many points do we need?
A: One point more than the team that finishes 22nd
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Shouldn’t it be ‘every point you take from a team around you is 2 points they don’t get’, or even 3 because we increased our points total by 1 as well and therefore they are not 3 points better off than us ?Braziliance said:
Wise words from our greatest manager of all time, he knows his stuff.Oggy Red said:Targets are needed.
It can provide focus.
But how many points required after 46 games is not at this stage particularly meaningful.
What we do need to do:
1) set a points target for the next block of fixtures .....Lee Bowyer divided the season into blocks of 9 games, with an achievable points target for each block of games.
2) win our mini-league of the teams around us ......right now, our relegation rivals.
I remember Curbs stressing the importance of this .... every point you take from a team around you, is a point they don't get.
Win against them = the proverbial '6 pointer'.
It was so careless to lose at Pompey.
We should have been able to hold a 2-0 lead at Blackburn.
We must cut this out, especially against our mini-league rivals.0 -
NTT20 boys released their mid season predictions. While saying that Charlton still have a lot of work to do, they both have Oxford and Portsmouth joining Sheff Wed in the bottom three. They think Norwich and Blackburn get out of trouble.
Ali Maxwell was keen to point out that we have 12 home games and only 9 away games left and our home form is quite strong, while Portsmouth have more away games than home games left, and they have the worst away record in the league (worse than Sheff Wed).3 -
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This Saturday Pompey are away at Wednesday. We really need Wednesday to get something from that.0
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so we stay up, what next season, happy with more of the same to stay up again? I'm not arguing, I completely agree with your points, I'm just questioning what would we actually be supporting? (like I said originally, an existential question really. "that's the kind of guy I am").Braziliance said:
Dude?EugenesAxe said:53 just to be sure, win at home draw away will be more than enough.Side question I've been asking myself, some of the football we've played has been awful, no better than in league 1. If we're honest, what difference would it make if we ended up there again?
We can't be in League 1. It kills our club, drops our attendances by about 5k home fans at least, nevermind away.
We are too big a club for League 1. That League is for your Leyton Orients, Peterboroughs, Northamptons etc. I never want to see us back there.
The football isn't great, cause that's Nathan Jones style. Stoke and Southampton fans weren't chanting "Nathan Jones, your football is shite" repeatedly for a laugh, they genuinely mean it.
As long as it keeps us as a Championship side though, I am happy. Results over performances, we need the Championship.
Edit* reading this back I can perhaps see parallels with the Prem years when people saying the football under Curbs was boring, but I feel it's a very different thing supporting a team to stay in the top half of the Prem.0 -
1 win down ✅Callumcafc said:52 points, another 23 more. That’s
8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses
4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.1 -
Just 20 draws to go nowCallumcafc said:
1 win down ✅Callumcafc said:52 points, another 23 more. That’s
8 wins, 0 draws, 13 losses
7 wins, 2 draws, 12 losses
6 wins, 5 draws, 10 losses
5 wins, 8 draws, 8 losses
4 wins, 11 draws, 6 losses
3 wins, 14 draws, 4 losses
2 wins, 17 draws, 2 losses
1 win, 20 draws, 0 losses
4 wins is where it starts looking a bit ridiculous so 5 wins minimum but would be cutting it fine.7 -
This season we've had a good spell and a bad run, and if we project PPG for remaining home and away games on the basis of the season so far, we'd finish on 58 points. This gives us a reasonable margin of safety assuming 50 or so will keep us up.
With vital players coming back, there's some justification for optimism.
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It could all come down to goal difference which is why, given we have the best of all of the bottom seven, it is important that we avoid any big defeats.
Last season four teams were separated by one point and Luton went down with the same number of points as Hull but with a 14 goal inferior GD - Luton lost their final match and Hull drew theirs. As much as it would to be great going into that final game in a position of safety, a superior GD really is worth that extra point.1 -
I think 50pts should do it, so lets say we need 1pt per game from now. I do not know who we will beat in those 20 games as we are a very inconsistent team.0
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What was 29 points after 28 games in 19/20 isn't 29 points after 28 games* this season. We're in a better position (being optimistic about the situation). Doubt we'll collapse like that season either (only need 16 more points to match what we finished with that season).*- Portsmouth have only played 26 (27 after today), only West Brom has played 29 games out of the bottom seven sides (Norwich will be on 29 games after Monday).0 -
We’re already collapsing.JustFloydRoad said:What was 29 points after 28 games in 19/20 isn't 29 points after 28 games* this season. We're in a better position (being optimistic about the situation). Doubt we'll collapse like that season either (only need 16 more points to match what we finished with that season).*- Portsmouth have only played 26 (27 after today), only West Brom has played 29 games out of the bottom seven sides (Norwich will be on 29 games after Monday).2 -
What you’ve showed there was last time we got relegated whilst being 5 points above the bottom 3 and today we’re only 3 points above the bottom 3JustFloydRoad said:What was 29 points after 28 games in 19/20 isn't 29 points after 28 games* this season. We're in a better position (being optimistic about the situation). Doubt we'll collapse like that season either (only need 16 more points to match what we finished with that season).*- Portsmouth have only played 26 (27 after today), only West Brom has played 29 games out of the bottom seven sides (Norwich will be on 29 games after Monday).1 -
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This was the team we put out in the 28th match of the 2019/20 season (a 2-1 loss away to Preston). It’s actually amazing how close this team came to surviving and as bad as we are now, I think it shows how much the championship has improved in the intervening six years. This team would probably somehow be below Sheffield Wednesday in the table this year!Crispywood said:
What you’ve showed there was last time we got relegated whilst being 5 points above the bottom 3 and today we’re only 3 points above the bottom 3JustFloydRoad said:What was 29 points after 28 games in 19/20 isn't 29 points after 28 games* this season. We're in a better position (being optimistic about the situation). Doubt we'll collapse like that season either (only need 16 more points to match what we finished with that season).*- Portsmouth have only played 26 (27 after today), only West Brom has played 29 games out of the bottom seven sides (Norwich will be on 29 games after Monday).
I’m not sure what any of this means, it’s probably that comparisons to the 2019/20 aren’t massively instructive, although I think the outcomes are very likely to be the same.0 -
The main difference is that we were under a transfer embargo going into the January transfer window.se9addick said:
This was the team we put out in the 28th match of the 2019/20 season (a 2-1 loss away to Preston). It’s actually amazing how close this team came to surviving and as bad as we are now, I think it shows how much the championship has improved in the intervening six years. This team would probably somehow be below Sheffield Wednesday in the table this year!Crispywood said:
What you’ve showed there was last time we got relegated whilst being 5 points above the bottom 3 and today we’re only 3 points above the bottom 3JustFloydRoad said:What was 29 points after 28 games in 19/20 isn't 29 points after 28 games* this season. We're in a better position (being optimistic about the situation). Doubt we'll collapse like that season either (only need 16 more points to match what we finished with that season).*- Portsmouth have only played 26 (27 after today), only West Brom has played 29 games out of the bottom seven sides (Norwich will be on 29 games after Monday).I’m not sure what any of this means, it’s probably that comparisons to the 2019/20 aren’t massively instructive, although I think the outcomes are very likely to be the same.
The fact that this season could be just as bad as that one just shows the lack of good planning from November once Edwards was out injured & we knew we needed a left sided defender.0 -
You’re just being greedy, we’ve had loads of left sided defenders since Edwards got injured.golfaddick said:
The main difference is that we were under a transfer embargo going into the January transfer window.se9addick said:
This was the team we put out in the 28th match of the 2019/20 season (a 2-1 loss away to Preston). It’s actually amazing how close this team came to surviving and as bad as we are now, I think it shows how much the championship has improved in the intervening six years. This team would probably somehow be below Sheffield Wednesday in the table this year!Crispywood said:
What you’ve showed there was last time we got relegated whilst being 5 points above the bottom 3 and today we’re only 3 points above the bottom 3JustFloydRoad said:What was 29 points after 28 games in 19/20 isn't 29 points after 28 games* this season. We're in a better position (being optimistic about the situation). Doubt we'll collapse like that season either (only need 16 more points to match what we finished with that season).*- Portsmouth have only played 26 (27 after today), only West Brom has played 29 games out of the bottom seven sides (Norwich will be on 29 games after Monday).I’m not sure what any of this means, it’s probably that comparisons to the 2019/20 aren’t massively instructive, although I think the outcomes are very likely to be the same.
The fact that this season could be just as bad as that one just shows the lack of good planning from November once Edwards was out injured & we knew we needed a left sided defender.0 -
Pompey last 6 - 2 wins, 3 draws, only loss1
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paulsturgess said:Pompey last 6 - 2 wins, 3 draws, only lossPompey have a torrid away record (the worst in the League), but they know if they cant win, they're not losing... Which is what we need to do a lot more of... and until these last two games, is what we've started doing slightly better. Be happy with a draw against Leicester, and then it remains all about picking up the needed wins at the Valley, where we've still only lost four games2
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We need 20 more points, that’s prob 5 more wins and 5 draws, or roughly a point a game (with 18 games left)
However, the Pompey home game (and prob Swansea) take on extra significance.We have to start beating the teams around us to ease the way, so Oxford away is a no lose game too.It’s going to be tough.Even with the new players, we look ordinary.0 -
Looking at the remaining fixtures, and thinking of possible wins (which will be affected by transfer business this week)
Has to be win (which adds pressure)
Wednesday (a)
Games which are realistic targets to win, but where we definitely can't afford to lose
Pompey (h)
Oxford (a)
WBA (a)
After that there are a number of fixtures where we could win if we get back the form and confidence of earlier in the season, but won't if we play like we have this last week. And if it comes down to the final game, Swansea away might find them on the beach.
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surely they've got to put in some sort of performance eventually, this saturday could be the turning point of the season. i think we need 20-22 points to be safe and we have 54 available to play for. when put like that it makes it quite daunting.
home games are where we need to turn the tide i feel, with the exception of sheff weds which should be a 3 points.
looking out the remaining homes games we have ( league pos in bracket ),
QPR ( 12th )
Stoke (10th )
Pompey (21st )
Wrexham (6th )
Birmingham (13th )
Norwich (18th )
Bristol City (7th )
Preston ( 9th )
Ipswich (3rd )
Hull city (4th )
7 of the 10 are against current top half sides.0
