Grand National 2026

bobmunro said:

In the deep mid-winter there are early signs of renewal. The birds are singing more, tiny buds begin to appear in the hedgerows, the early sprouts of daffodil and crocus leaves starting to break the ground,  the hours of daylight slowly begin to lengthen, and the sound of Sir Peanuts Malloy dusting off volumes of Timeform! 

Spring has sprung!

Timeform, Schmimeform……pah

Gamble landed in the Peter Marsh at Haydock today with Imperial Saint filling punters' pockets.
Just 3.5L covered the first 4 home (Richmond Lake, Konfusion and Myretown), with Johnnywho a further 6L adrift and Royal Pagaille tailed off.
Myretown was barely off the bridle, leading and looking good 3 out when he clattered an open ditch and never recovered the ground. Falling in the Hennessy, he's disappointed after his thumping Ultima victory and is out to 33s for the GN. 
At OR142 today, he'll be touch and go to make the cut at Aintree and, in any event, his mtDNA L2b1 is a no-no for me. None of the others with the required marks tick enough boxes.

Athletico Charlton said:

Is Quai de bourbon likely to enter? Any promise, I beleive you suggested that horse last year.

I would imagine he will be entered and I did indeed.
He was a decent 3rd in the Irish GN and the first cut of the new model rated him a little higher than it does now (post-tweaking). Certainly still consistent with frame-making but a tad short of winning potential, by my current reckoning. 
I cashed out my early e/w on him but, a course winner at Gowran, he could well score on Thursday, assuming his Troytown PU was an aberration.  
Will probably come back to bite me in the derriere on 11 April.

A confidence-restoring run from Resplendent Grey (plugging on 4L 2nd to Protektorat, to whom he was conceding 4lbs) at Windsor yesterday, after his tame effort in the Hennessy. 
The Gold Cup's surely over-optimistic but, with a 4 week gap to Aintree this year, the Ultima would be both a very winnable target and a workable prep for a tilt at the Big One.
Saw out the 3.5m Bet365 trip on quickish ground in good fashion last April and both breeding (he's from the family of Red Rum and by GN-winning sire Walk In The Park) and Spring form (4 wins and 2 places from 6 runs in April and early May - his dam's and his two winning siblings' best form is on spring and summer ground) suggest he could be, alongside Iroko, the strongest of the home-team challengers.
Taken an e/w position at 40s.

Good to see the course at Gowran pass this pm’s inspection.
I shall have an e/w nibble of Yeah Man - 4th in this last year - at 14/1.
Not of interest for me for Aintree (not a bad pedigree, striking similarities with Mr Incredible’s, but just not a spring horse) but there’s a touch of value about him for tomorrow’s test IMHO and I want to have an interest to watch it live.

That was attritional with only 5 finishers.
Spanish Harlem (off Irish OR150) led from the flag and, bar a fence-thumping down the back, looked the winner until unseating his claimer at the last. Pilot error in truth.
Perfect prep for a GN with no hike in mark, at least from the Irish handicapper. He'll likely run again before April but not before the weights are allotted.
Now Is The Hour wins it by a photo from Better Times Ahead and NITH could well now achieve a cut-making mark for Aintree. Cut to 33s for April.
A hedging e/w on him was my 2nd interest today so some compensation for missing the 50~66/1 but in any event, while he's definitely on my long list (looked a serious threat to Haiti Couleurs before departing 2 out in the NH Chase), he may or may not make my final Aintree team. Long way to go yet.
Spanish Harlem (backed at 50s and now 25~40s) certainly will.

Yeah Man, High Class Hero, Quai De Bourbon, Search For Glory, Intense Raffles all PU
Capt Cody parted company with Townend a long way out.

Morning Folks.
Still awaiting GN entries and, in the meantime, I thought I'd bore the pants of you with an explanation of the potential significance of a GN runner's mitochondrialDNA, which subject I've spent such time upon that divorce threatens once again.

PS I'm working on an Audible version of this to market as a sleep-aid. However, I think it's rather interesting    


Why should we be interested in the mtDNA of Grand National runners?

It's generally considered that racehorses derive their stamina principally from their dam-side (mother). If so, one of several key influences is likely to be the type of mitochondrial DNA ("mtDNA haplotype"), passed (exclusively, for all mammals) from mother to all of her offspring.

This is because horses use 2 methods for producing energy: aerobic and anaerobic metabolism.

The latter is for rapid bursts of energy [“flight”]. This burns glucose stored in muscle and is the principal energy source for sprinters but, as it replaces the glucose in the muscle with lactic acid, is self-limiting.

As racing distance increases, it’s the aerobic pathway that fulfils an increasingly larger proportion of a racehorse's energy requirement and, for that, mtDNA plays a key role, both in aerobic energy production and cardiovascular efficiency, for which obviously heart and lung capacity are also critical.


What determines the mtDNA of a runner’s maternal Family?

Two important facts:

1. mtDNA varies only over long periods of time -- the rate of mutation suggests 10,000 years or more.

2. The Thoroughbred is a composite breed and the maternal Families to which they belong represent variations of genealogical blends of founder breeds, originating from Mongolia to Iceland and from to Scandinavia to the Near East and Africa, Unsurprisingly, such founder breeds have different physiological characteristics, reflecting the environment in which they evolved and, critically, different mtDNA.

As a result, a Thoroughbred represents a mtDNA “soup”, which research has been able to classify into certain mtDNA groups (“haplogroups”) and sub-types (“haplotypes”), i.e. differing blends of founder breed, specific to different Thoroughbred Families (allowing for mistakes that have come to light in the tracing the ancestry of certain branches of those Families).

For example, the D1b haplotype stems from the same root as the Shetland Pony, Icelandic Pony and Norwegian fjord horse, and, famously, in the thoroughbred is uniquely found in the 5g and 5h families. 5h was the family of the key broodmares Dalmary and (daughter) Rough Shod, and their most famous descendant Sadlers Wells.


Thoroughbred Families & their mtDNA:



Hypothesis:

A 2006 research paper “Mitochondrial DNA: An important female contribution to thoroughbred racehorse performance”, concludes thus:

"the mtDNA molecule, carrying genes encoding for respiratory chain enzymes, is a primary candidate for demonstrating associations between genotype and athletic performance in mammalian species……

“Importantly, we have observed that there is also independent and extensive functional mitochondrial gene variation in the current thoroughbred racehorse population and that significant associations exist between mtDNA haplotype, as defined by functional genes, and aspects of racing performance."

Analysis in that paper, and in others, indicate that Thoroughbreds of certain haplotypes do appear to show appreciable relative outperformance according to trip.

So we may reasonably hypothesise that mtDNA may also be one of the factors influencing success in marathon steeplechases such as the Grand National.

Of course, the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune that typify the race should lead us to be cautious about the results of analysis based on historic race results. Nonetheless, those of all GNs from 1988 to the present day do appear to show (a) notable out-performance for certain haplotypes and under-performance for others and (b) a marked change in the performance of certain haplotypes coinciding precisely with the significant course changes after the 2012 race.
Furthermore, comparison with the same analysis of the 20f Ascot Gold Cup (the Group 1 with the longest trip in the UK) since 1988, reveals a similar degree of relative outperformance for the same haplotype in both marathons over the flat and the (new) Aintree fences.



Statistical Analysis:

with apologies for the slightly wonky formatting of the table headings

AINTREE GNs: 1988~2012 [1]



Footnotes:
[1] Excluding the Red Marauder GN

[2] The mtDNA included are those represented by at least 5% of Fields or producing 1+ winner since 2013 or of interest re Ascot Gold Cup data

[3] L2b1a and L2b1 are closely related – L2b1a being a descendant sub-clade of L2b1. L2a2 is less closely related but all three are members of the L2 macro-haplogroup




AINTREE GNs: 2013~2025


[4] These mtDNA recorded NO place finishes (1st~5th) 2013~2025



ASCOT GOLD CUP: 1988~2025





KEY OBSERVATIONS:


L2b1a / L2b1

• Prior to 2013, the L2 haplogroup (including also L2a2) produced 8 of the 23 winners since 1988 (34.8%) from just 14.1% of runners (a group outperformance factor of x2.5 representation)

• The largest representative, L2b1a (Family 3) produced 4 winners (x2.64 outperformance) and (though not shown above) another 10 places 2nd~5th (a frame-making Outperformance factor of x1.85). 38 different horses represented L2b1a over these 23 GNs and 29% of them (11) made the frame (3 doing so twice – Party Politics, Montys Pass and Clan Royal).

• Since 2013, L2b1a and L2b1 together have contributed 8.2% of fields, including winners of staying chases over conventional fences listed above. If there were no correlation between mtDNA and GN success, we should expect such representation to have delivered 5 frame-makers. They have, in fact, produced not a single 1st~5th place finish.


N2a

• Prior to 2013, runners with the mtDNA N2a (Family 1) achieved average performance in GNs, notching 3 (13% of) wins from 11.7% of runners (x1.11). They achieved an identical x1.11 frame-making Performance Factor. They were neither favoured, nor disfavoured by the test of a pre-2013 Grand National.

• Since 2013 and the material modification to the Aintree fences, as the L2b haplotypes have struggled, those runners with N2a have excelled, from just 12.2% of fields contributing 4 winners (33.3%) and another 7 2nd~5th places = Performance Factors of x2.74 (winning) and x1.51 (frame-making). 43 different horses with N2a have run in these GNs – 9.3% of them have won and 23.3% (10) have made the frame at least once (I Am Maximus doing so twice).

• Interestingly, runners with N2a mtDNA, with a sizeable contingent of 17% of fields, also show a comparable outperformance from 1988~2025 in the 20f Group 1 Ascot Gold Cup. that's a winning Performance Factor of x1.55, with 13.5% of different representatives winning at least once (Yeats doing so 4 times).

• Note also the sub-par performance of the L2 haplogroup in Ascot Gold Cups.


Other haplotypes of note:

• mtDNA haplotypes with small representations (<5%) show interesting results but, with such a small sample of “modern” GN winners, it’s too early to draw any meaningful conclusions from this

• M1a is noteworthy in that it shows a x2.79 frame-making Performance Factor. The 3 reps that have obliged (Corach Rambler, Any Second Now twice and Gilgamboa) are all closely related and so this may also or alternatively reflect other strengths in their damside.



Why might L2b1a and L2b1 have struggled since the Aintree fence changes?

We all know that the nature of the test has changed, not just with those fence changes but subsequently with higher quality fields and reduced field size.

Families representing the L2b1a and L2b1 haplotypes (Fam 3 and 14 resp.) notably have the Byerley Turk (one of 3 foundational stallions for the modern Thoroughbred) prominent in their genealogy. Turks were known for courage and were typically used in war as chargers (the Byerley Turk himself came from the Balkans, was captured from the Ottoman army, was Capt Byerley's charger for William's army at the the Battle of the Boyne in 1690, before becoming a prolific stud in Yokshire) – i.e. they had stamina and speed but were also adept at negotiating difficult terrain and, importantly, unpredictable obstacles. 

Family 1 representing N2a originates from the “Barb”, whose roots are in North Africa (the Maghreb), known for its immense stamina and ability to maintain high speeds over long distances in harsh environments. 

This is pure speculation but, while stamina remains at a premium, perhaps the well-acknowledged lesser test now posed by the new Aintree fences has been greatly to the disadvantage of runners whose genealogy was so well suited to the formerly-fearsome obstacles and to the advantage of those whose mtDNA best supports stamina at high cruising speed.

I'm not aware of any science to prove this but it would seem logical that the pattern of energy demands upon a horse in a pre-2013 GN (negotiating not only the uniquely tough fences but fallen horses and riders) compared to a modern GN were appreciably different in nature.

None of this is to suggest that a representative of L2b1a or L2b1 cannot win a modern Grand National, nor (obviously) that N2a alone is a guarantee of victory. But the stats suggest that mtDNA may be one factor to bear in mind when assessing the overall strengths and chances of a modern GN runner.


I’ll post the mtDNA haplotypes for all the 2026 GN entries where they're announced.

Entries out on Tuesday, I've completed my 4-horse ante-post book by taking the 12/1 still available for I Am Maximus.

Backed him for his 2023 Irish GN win when my model already rated the strength of his pedigree for a modern GN as the only rival to Tiger Roll's and he was my #1 selection for the 2024 GN, which he won so impressively.

Aside from Nick Rockett’s stat-busting win, it was his close 2nd last year after a very ordinary season and with no post-weights prep (prompting me to leave him off my 2025 team) that put the nail in the coffin of the career-based stats' component of my model, then equally-weighted with pedigree.

Obviously the advantage now of prioritising the model’s pedigree assessment is that early prices can be taken. Even so I’m kicking myself that I didn’t move early enough on Max, whose unexpected but unlucky close 2nd in December’s Savills Chase, squeezed his GN price from 16s.

Importantly that run showed both his continuing enthusiasm and that he’s not dependent on Paul Townend to deliver him in a big race and he’ll run tomorrow in the re-arranged DRF Gold Cup with Jack Kennedy drafted in to pilot.

In the conditions a strong show should not surprise. But, however he runs at Leopardstown, if he lines up at Aintree on 11 April, even as probable topweight, he’ll almost certainly be my model’s 2026 GN NAP and I’m not prepared to risk having to chase him at single digits. 

So, backed at 12/1, I AM MAXIMUS completes my 4-horse ante-post each-way book, the early prices on the other 3 creating a reasonable return profile and reserving some capacity to add a couple of place shots when 5 places are offered.

The other 3 are:

RESPLENDENT GREY (40/1)

CV

·         An 8 year-old, 2nd season chaser – 10 of last 11 GN winners (Tiger Roll the exception) were 1st or 2nd season chasers from 26% of runners.

·         Stamina is his forte, winning April’s 28.5f Bet365 Gold Cup off OR142 on quick ground (4.8 secs fast of std), keeping on strongly up the Sandown hill to the line despite Sean Bowen dropping his whip.

·         4th (11L) behind Haiti Couleurs (conceding 7lbs to HC) in last year’s 30f Nov Chase at the Festival but he was notably the fastest finishing, covering the last furlong up the Hill in 15.43 secs (HC 16.88, whose lead, interestingly, was also shrinking vs 5 others). At current marks, Haiti Couleurs would now be giving him 6lbs.

·         Never failed to complete in 19 Races Under Rules to date, making the frame in 5 of 6 at 22~30f.

·         Very much a Spring horse, like his near family. He’s 4 wins and 2 places from 6 runs over obstacles from mid-March to early May (100% frame-making vs 55% at other times, all Oct~Feb). Dam and both winning siblings notching all their wins from March through the summer months.

Pedigree

·         One of the closest relations to Red Rum to have run in a modern GN (via Rummy’s 3rd Dam).

·         By current top sire Walk In The Park (sired 3 GN runners including winner Nick Rockett and 4th Walk In The Mill)

·         His 3rd Damsire Persian Bold has figured prominently on the damside of 4 GN runners, including 2 winners (Rule The World and One For Arthur) and the Becher chase winner Twig.

·         Via sire and Persian Bold, is meaningfully (8%) linebred to Bold Ruler, known for bestowing toughness of character.

This Season

·         Won on seasonal bow but disappointed in November’s Hennessy (11th, jumping poorly) but returned strongly in January when 4L 2nd (conceding 4lbs) to 165-rated Protektorat over an inadequate 22f (notching career-high RPR156).

·         Entered for the Gold Cup but if he heads to Cheltenham he’s surely more likely to run in the Ultima (36 days prior to the GN).

·         Takes his racing well, with 3 of his 6 career wins over obstacles being after 22~26 days’ break but also goes well fresh: 2 wins after 167+ days break. 

·         According to my model, the best GN-winning chance for a British-trained runner this year (Olly Murphy).

·         Would be the first Grey winner since Neptune Collonges in 2012. 

 

HIGH CLASS HERO (50/1)

CV

·         A 9 year-old, 2nd season chaser, he’s won or made the frame (beaten <5L) in 5 of his 6 chases to date.

·         This includes his keeping-on 4.5L 3rd to Resplendent Grey in April’s Bet365, conceding 6lbs to the winner (career-high RPR155). They currently share the same mark (OR152). As it happens, stablemate Nick Rockett was also close 3rd in the Bet365 a year before his GN triumph.

·         Near-misser in Grade 1 novice company over hurdles (beaten 0.5L over 3m at Punchestown, with Better Days Ahead, Stellar Story and Lecky Watson behind)

Pedigree

·         Both sire Sulamani and damsire Turgeon point to stamina. Both were Group 1 winners at 12f+ and have GN positives from limited representation – Sulamani siring winner Rule The World and only 1 other runner and Turgeon dam-siring near-misser Vanillier, again with only 1 other runner.

·         Like Rule The World, has both Wild Risk (influence for stamina at speed) and Bold Ruler (toughness) on his damside – 5 of the last 12 winners (42%) but just 12% of runners had the benefit of that combination.

·         HCH’s mtDNA L1a is interesting. It’s had few GN representatives (just 4 of the 353 horses to compete since 2013) but they include Noble Yeats (2022 winner and 4th a year later) and all 3 others met with misfortune. Interestingly, like the GN solidly-outperforming mtDNA N2a, L1a also shows outperformance (x1.43) in Ascot Gold Cups since 1988. With it also likely having Barb origins, despite a tiny current sample, perhaps L1a may indeed bestow an advantage in a modern GN (see earlier post re mtDNA analysis).

 

This Season

·         Decent enough seasonal bow but PU in the Thyestes on very testing ground – though he handles slow ground, both PUs Under Rules have come on attritional Heavy.

·         Even if weights are against, it will be interesting to see if he’s one of Willie’s Bobbyjo team in late February (the winning prep for the last 2 GN winners from the the yard).

SPANISH HARLEM (50/1, now best price 33s)

CV & This Season

·         14 chases already for this 8 year-old, a EUR360k purchase as a 4 year old, now in his 3rd season over fences. If it weren’t for that exposure to the handicapper, he’d be my #2 Winning selection behind Max. Even so, over the modern Aintree fences, I believe he still has something in hand and is a strong candidate to make the frame, even if he probably lacks the quality of a contemporary winner.

·         A never-nearer 8L 6th in the 2024 Scottish GN (CO half-way the following year when going nicely - again ridden conservatively)

·         Was still a maiden when, next outing, he was a one-paced 7L 4th behind Resplendent Grey in the Bet365, having at last been given a prominent ride which his stamina but probable lack of gears demands.

·         Finally got off the mark in June and followed up taking September’s Kerry National, both wins on decent ground and again making the pace, before a return of his sketchy jumping (notably when ridden less prominently) in the Hennessy. Last-outing and returning to front-running, had an agonising last fence UR (claimer jockey at fault) with Thyestes all but won on desperate ground. At least that saved a punitive hike in mark from the Irish handicapper, though it won’t have escaped the BHA handicapper’s notice.

·         It was no surprise when Willie Mullins commented after he broke his maiden: “We'd love to produce him for the Randox Grand National at Aintree…… I think he likes nicer ground, that could be the key to him as well as plenty of jumping and longer trips”.

·         Add in “positive tactics” and I’d fully concur. Given the now-customary schooling over spruce at home, in my view today’s fences at Aintree and the GN trip should prove right up his street.

·         He’s unlikely to figure in the Bobbyjo, one would have thought, and I’m not sure another trip to Cheltenham is best for him, but a prep somewhere is no doubt on the cards, though one of his 2 wins came after a 108 day break (the GN will be 79 days after the Thyestes).

Pedigree

As with Max prior to Fairyhouse in 2023, my model was sweet on Spanish Harlem’s pedigree for an Aintree GN prior to his Scottish GN 6th and he’s shaping up to have the 2nd strongest blend of key components in this year’s GN field. What's so special?

·         By Spanish Moon, a Group 1 winner at 12f, who’s yet to have a GN runner but has sired a Scottish GN near-misser (Klarc Kent, also placing 4th). As a sire, his own pedigree is reminiscent of Mahler (both have grand-sire Sadlers Wells and damsire Rainbow Quest), the sire of GN 5th The Big Dog and strong stayer Ms Parfois.

·         He’s from the family of Hedgehunter and is particularly closely related to Welsh GN winner Le Beau Bai and (via his grand-dam) to Roi Des Francs, who led the 2017 GN for a circuit before being almost carried out by a loose horse after the water. Remarkably, he recovered to lead again and was 3rd until 3 out, before running out of gas. Who knows whether he'd have made a minor place behind One For Arthur but for that misfortune?

But it's Spanish Harlem's linebreeding (multiple presence via more than 1 offspring of key stallions) that is particularly sexy:

·         Linebred by optimal form (2 sons and 1 daughter split between sire-and damside) to Wild Risk. 12 horses have run in GNs since 2013 with comparable linebreeding to WR; including Tiger Roll, I Am Maximus, Iroko (4th), Walk In The Mill (4th), Meetingofthewaters (6th).

·         He’s also significantly linebred to Wild Risk’s second cousin Right Royal, who shares much of the specific bloodlines that make WR’s so synergistic with the ubiquitous Nearco in thoroughbred pedigrees. Only 2 horses have run in a GN since 2013 that were linebred to Right Royal; they include 100/1 Balko Des Flos, 2nd to Minella Times in the 2021 GN.

·         Finally, he’s also linebred to the Timeform 144-rated Tudor Minstrel. 23 horses linebred to him have run in a GN since 2013; 7 of them winning (Auroras Encore, Pineau De Re, One For Arthur, Tiger Roll (x2), Noble Yeats, Corach Rambler and I Am Maximus), another 3 placing (Magic Of Light, Ain’t That A Shame and Senior Chief).  

 

Form of the 2025 Bet365 Gold Cup:

It would be fair to point out, with all 3 of these GN debutants, that the 2025 Bet365 Gold Cup figures prominently in their form. But, down the years, until last year at least, despite the same sort of typical going, Sandown's Whitbread/Bet365 has been a pretty moderate pointer to GN success; a poor one since the Aintree fence changes - or perhaps more pertinently, since the domination by Irish yards.

However, we should also observe that in the last few years the Sandown feature, run on the last day of the British NH season, has become crucial in the fight for the British Trainer's Championship, in which Willie Mullins is now a perennial leading challenger. As a result, he's come to target some of his biggest guns at this big prize, gaining 1st and 3rd in 2024 from his 3 entries (Minella Cocooner, a creditable GN7th and Nick Rockett resp.) and last year saddling 10 of the 19 runners, contributing the next 4 runners home after Resplendent Grey, including the recent GN close 3rd Grangeclare West.

This was a highly competitive renewal once again in my view and, even if the bare subsequent form to date looks only fair (the same was largely true at this stage for the 2024 race), winner Resplendent Grey and 4th Spanish Harlem have since both won and, on their latest outings set new career-high RPRs (by 3 and 11lbs respectively).


More after the entries are announced on Tuesday.
TTFN.


PS My model still rates IROKO very highly, as it did last year. If his GNOR is at his current mark, he'll certainly have a strong chance of making the frame. But he's short of Winning calibre, rated behind all 4 above, and at 8/1 isn't backable for me.

StarryNight said:

SPANISH HARLEM (50/1, now best price 33s)

CV & This Season

Thanks for all the info (I didn't want to quote all the paragraph). I wonder what you make of the other 7 year olds, Jagwar and Quai De Bourbon? I don't trust 7yo horses, though Iroko and Meetingofthewaters did their part last year...
Meetingofthewaters isn't running, is he. No entries since GN.

I tend to agree (MOTW was actually 8 last year but ran nicely as a 7yo in 7th a year earlier).

Re those two 7 year olds, both have pedigree elements in their favour.
Quai de Bourbon - he's related (albeit distantly) to Midlands National near-misser Tanganyika. Group 1 winning sire and damsire combination always good as is Sadlers Wells in his top line. Damsire Muhtathir was also damsire of a Prix de Cadran winner (20f Group 1) and his 3rd in the Irish GN (no extra rather than emptying) all speak to his getting the trip.
His mtDNA I2a1 is probably neutral - a GN winner, Nick Rockett, and a fair few placed (including Galvin to whom he's even more distantly related) but a bit sub-par for its heavy representation, pre-and post 2013. I2a1 in Ascot Gold Cups do tend to punch a little above their weight.
I like QDB and originally backed him but since evaluating others he's slid down the list and I've cashed out. His 2 PUs this year aren't a fatal blow but they haven't encouraged me to reconsider.

Jagwar I also like pedigree-wise. His first 3 damsires having stayers among broodmare's offspring - in particular damsire Video Rock was also damsire to Saint Are and Delta Work; DS2 Quart De Vin has no GN success but was damsire to dour stayer Raz de Maree and Irish GN winner Organisedconfusion; and DS3 Italic was also Anibale Fly's 3rd damsire.
Like Saint Are and Delta Work, he has the Wild Risk & Bold Ruler combo on his damside that I like to see (4 GN winning horses, incl Tiger Roll, also had this) but, unlike them, he is meaningfully linebred to Wild Risk by optimal format.
Overall a pedigree-profile consistent with a minor place but his lack of exposure at anything 22f or longer makes it too big a leap of faith for me.
If he is given a tilt at the big one, it wouldn't be a surprise to see him ridden conservatively (as Saint Are and Cause Of Causes were) as a 7yo to give him a sighter for the future - not an uncommon risk in backing a 7yo, as you say.


It's beginning to look like that last GN left its mark on quite a few, including Nick Rockett.
It's possible Wille's thinking of doing a Rathvinden with him and giving him his seasonal bow & single prep in the Bobbjyo - worked OK for Rathvinden after his exertions the previous spring - but you have to suppose there's been something that's prevented an appearance thus far.
Senior Chief and, as you say, Meetingofthewaters make it 3 of the first 6 home without a run since and unlucky 7th Minella Coccooner hasn't run since the Bet365 last April.
Faller Kandoo Kid presumably also sustained an injury of some sort.
Yet Maximus and a few others from the front 11 home have run well enough since (Iroko, Hewick, Twig and Three Card Brag winning).
Given Firefox's run yesterday, that Iroko win looks all the better, despite only 2 rivals.

StarryNight said:

Kandoo Kid is on a break till 2027, as I hear. Not sure what to do with Nick Rocket at this point, I have him since last year on antepost, will see. I have a sentiment for Minella Cocooner but that's a no go this year. 
I did add Jagwar on a free bet, in probably vain hope he'll place... Him and Quai, maybe need to grow up a bit. Next year.

Stablemate of Iroko and with JP well armed as usual, wouldn't surprise if they ran him in the Topham.