Grand National 2026

Well Nick Rockett has an entry, along with 77 others (well down on last 2 years).
I suspect Willie's just given him a long break and we'll see him in the Bobbyjo.

Aside from the 4 I've backed, I'm glad to see Now Is The Hour entered (though he's being targeted at the NH Chase at the Festival again).
Answer to Kayf also on my initial long list along with Better Days Ahead (also yet to be seen this season), Search For Glory and Spillanes Tower but I'll get the slide rule over all of these (or at least the top 50~60 rated) asap.

Full list of entries:

Ain't That A Shame (Tom Ellis)
Amirite (Henry De Bromhead, Ireland)
Answer To Kayf (Terence O'Brien, Ireland)
Anyway (David Kenneth Budds, Ireland)
Appreciate It (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Banbridge (Joseph O'Brien, Ireland)
Beaufort Scale (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Beauport (Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies)
Better Days Ahead (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Blaze The Way (Margaret Mullins, Ireland)
Blizzard Of Oz (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Buddy One (Paul John Gilligan, Ireland)
Captain Cody (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Champ Kiely (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Croke Park (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Deafening Silence (Dan Skelton)
Deep Cave (Christian Williams)
Escaria Ten (Martin Keighley)
Favori De Champdou (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Final Orders (Gavin Cromwell, Ireland)
Firefox (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Flooring Porter (Gavin Cromwell, Ireland)
French Dynamite (Eric McNamara, Ireland)
Gentlemansgame (Mouse Morris, Ireland)
Gerri Colombe (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Gorgeous Tom (Henry de Bromhead, Ireland)
Grangeclare West (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Grey Dawning (Dan Skelton)
Handstands (Ben Pauling)
Harry Des Ongrais (Henry de Bromhead, Ireland)
Haiti Couleurs (Rebecca Curtis)
High Class Hero (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Hyland (Nicky Henderson)
I Am Maximus (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Ile Atlantique (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Impaire Et Passe (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Imperial Saint (Philip Hobbs & Johnson White)
In d'Or (Fergal O'Brien)
Intense Raffles (Thomas Gibney, Ireland)
Iroko (Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero)
Jagwar (Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero)
Johnnywho (Jonjo & A J O'Neill)
Jordans (Joseph O'Brien, Ireland)
Leave Of Absence (Anthony Honeyball)
Lecky Watson (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
L'Homme Presse (Venetia Williams)
Marble Sands (David Killahena & Graeme McPherson)
Mister Coffey (Nicky Henderson)
Monbeg Genius (Jonjo & A J O'Neill)
Monty's Star (Henry De Bromhead, Ireland)
Mr Vango (Sara Bradstock)
Myretown (Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore)
Nick Rockett (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Now Is The Hour (Gavin Cromwell, Ireland)
O'Moore Park (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Oscars Brother (Connor King, Ireland)
Paggane (Faye Bramley)
Panic Attack (Dan Skelton)
Perceval Legallois (Gavin Cromwell, Ireland)
Pic Roc (Ben Pauling)
Pied Piper (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Quai De Bourbon (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Resplendent Grey (Olly Murphy)
Search For Glory (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Shanbally Kid (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Soul Icon (Keiran Burke)
Spanish Harlem (Willie Mullins, Ireland)
Spillane's Tower (Jimmy Mangan, Ireland)
Stellar Story (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Stolen Silver (Georgia Nicholls)
The Real Whacker (Paddy Neville)
The Short Go (Henry de Bromhead, Ireland)
Three Card Brag (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Top Of The Bill (Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies)
Twig (Ben Pauling)
Western Fold (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Weveallbeencaught (Eric McNamara, Ireland)
Will Do (Gordon Elliott, Ireland)
Yeah Man (Gavin Cromwell, Ireland)

I make that 79 horses not 78 as stated by the RP.

Starinnaddick said:

I think we all know that the Irish don't need to sell their best stock now. Those that are sold  mainly remain in Ireland with Irish trainers

And plenty of British buyers of well-bred NH horses keep their horses with Irish trainers - Nick Rockett's owner's a Brit and used to have horses in Lambourn. 

StarryNight said:

Intense Raffles - I wonder if they'll keep him in. 

I've just read some discussion on Panic Attack, mare for one, 10yo for another, but classy. What do you think, PM? Will a mare win again after a very long time? 

I don't discount a mare winning just because it's been so long - they've only been lightly represented and Magic Of Light could so easily have won it in 2019; maybe would have if she hadn't ploughed through the middle of a couple of fences.
For me, it's a case of head trying to rule heart with Panic Attack.
That Hennessy win was very impressive (the form of that race looking respectable) and she's got that toughness about her that I'd love to see win a GN.
I'd have no worries about the hike in mark since the Hennessy - she'll have a nice racing weight. But I use a system that's now primarily pedigree-based and, while she has the profile to run a huge race and make the frame, she lacks some key components of a modern GN winner.
I'll amplify.
Positives:

• She's related to 2 GN winners of yesteryear via 8th Dam Athasi (Grittar and Maori Venture), a producer of an astonishing 5 Group 1 winners, 3 of which won the British or Irish St Leger - some dame.
• Interesting 1st and 2nd damsire: Galileo (only 1 GN runner to date, as a sire is renowned as an influence for toughness) and Darshaan (unseen as yet in a modern GN but a "Solid" Chef De Race and stamina to the fore in plenty of his progeny, including as a damsire with High Chapparal and Milan).
• Linebred 7.5% to Mill Reef (Timeform 141) is a nice plus - 4 of 8 horses to run in a modern GN that were comparably so - One For Arthur (1st & 6th), Balko Des Flos (2nd), Iroko (4th) and Swing Bill (6th) 

Negatives - 2 big ones when it comes to winning:

• No Northern Dancer in her top line. ND is in the topline of all 12 of last 12 GN winners (57.7% of runners)
• Wild Risk is confined to her Sire's sireside. 12/12 winners had WR on their damside or their sire's damside (64.4% of runners) - there is a genealogical reason why WR on a damside is theoretically more potent.
• And simply the aggregate of positives isn’t as strong as for others.

I'm not so worried about her age or the fact she's technically in her 4th season over fences (she had 18 months off the track in 23-24) - you'll read a lot of bollocks about no 10yo+ can win it but plenty have gone close (Vics Canvas was desperately unlucky not to win in 2016 as a 13 yo - importantly he was remarkably still as 2nd season chaser).
And yes, 2nd season chasers are 10/11 of latest GN winners but, importantly, she's only had 8 chases and remains unexposed beyond 26f.

In conclusion, 20/1 is a totally understandable price for her but, given my rating of her, there's just not enough juice to add her to my team. Others preferred as place shots for me (including another mare) but I wouldn't be remotely surprised to see her in the mix at the last.

Okeedokee.

I've now put the slide rule over the 67 top rated entries (down to and including OR141) and have my "long list" of those with pedigrees consistent with former Winners or Placed horses in the GNs since 2013 (I'll list them out separately).

Pedigrees are now 80% of the model's overall profile assessment, with several CV factors of importance in confirming that rating and whittling down that list.

I've already backed each-way ante-post 3 with the strongest Winning Calibre profiles (I Am Maximus, High Class Hero and Resplendent Grey) and 1 with Strong Place Potential (Spanish Harlem) and, with yesterday's declarations for this weekend, I've added the sole-remaining entry from that long list with a potential Winning Calibre Profile.

He needs a creditable run prior to the big day to confirm it but, with Bet365 an outlier at 50/1, I'll take the chance on that.

BETTER DAYS AHEAD (backed at 50/1)

CV & This Season

• 8yo 2nd season chaser and a Eur350k purchase as a 4yo, having won his maiden PtP in style. 
• A decent hurdler but better chaser, near-missing in the 24.5f Grade 1 Brown Advisory last March
• Unseen since April's 6th in the Irish GN (I'm unaware of the reason but it’s possibly something picked up in that race). There were some class runners better off at the weights that day and, given his pedigree, that run doesn't prompt me to doubt his suitability for an Aintree GN, particularly on better ground (Tiger Roll PUd in the Irish GN, off a lower mark than BDA, a year before his first Aintree win).
• Though he has form on all goings, his best RPRs (hurdles and fences) and the best form of his 4 full siblings have all come on a decent surface.
• One of 3 Elliott runners declared for tomorrow's Boyne Hurdle (Danny Gilligan, who's got on well with him, on board), a race that was the preferred Cheltenham and early GN prep for Tiger Roll and Delta Work, and with 62 days before the big one, there's time for a follow up. Will be interesting to see if BDA gets a XC entry.

PEDIGREE

• By Milan - 4 of his 13 sons that have run in GNs have made the frame: One For Arthur (win & 6th), Double Seven (4th), Santini (4th) and Milansbar (5th)
• Damsire Topanoora has been DS for 2 horses to run in a GN, including x2 near-misser Any Second Now
• 2nd damsire Buckskin was sire of GN winner and 3rd Amberleigh House, and was prominent among the damsires of unlucky GN 3rd Vics Canvas, 5th Meetingofthewaters and 6th Longhouse Poet
• 3rd damsire Tarqogan was the damsire of 1988 GN winner Rhyme n Reason and near-misser Romany King
• From the family of 2021 winner Minella Times (via his 5th dam), he has the GN-outperforming mtDNA N2a.

Even with the Irish premium, his current chase Irish OR should put him on around 11 stone for Aintree - not thrown-in but a very workable weight.


PS
Aside from Paggane, who disappointed the other day, there's another 2 with Place Potential that are flashing away brightly on my radar screen, including another 100/1 wild one. 
More anon.

So, my full long list, in order of profile (80% pedigree, 20% CV) strength:

4 WINNING-CALIBRE PROFILES:

• I Am Maximus (nap)
• High Class Hero (2nd season chaser)
• Resplendent Grey (2nd season chaser)
• Better Days Ahead (2nd season chaser - subject to creditable prep)

2 STRONG PLACE PROFILES (2nd~5th):

• Spanish Harlem
• Now Is The Hour - 33/1 - the most likely final addition to my ticket, once NRNB and 5 places are available - he's targeted at the Festival NH Chase once again (still qualifies, despite technically being in his 3rd season chasing) so some doubt over firmness of Aintree intentions  

1 MINOR PLACE PROFILE (4th~5th, 5~15L):

• Iroko - 7/1 - subject to a GNOR <157 (that should be so but he's too short to back for a place only)

WILD ONES, whose pedigree, according to my model, suggests they just might provide a shock:

• Paggane (2nd season chaser) - 100/1 - but she may have forfeited the requisite OR
• Top Of The Bill - 100/1 - subject to a strong run in GN Trial on 14 Feb (backed him at 40/1 e/w for the Trial at Haydock, where's he's a course winner)

There are others with GN minor place-making profiles but who would need to achieve something after the weights are allotted to confirm it (though at best all limited to minor places 4th~5th only, according to my model). 

In OR order (* = 2nd season chaser):

• Nick Rockett - 25/1 - would need to set a new career-best RPR (comfortably >170)
• Grangeclare West - 25/1 - ditto
• Spillanes Tower - 33/1 - needs to be in the mix in the Gold Cup (but that could ruin his Aintree chance)
• Firefox * - 50/1 - ditto
• Croke Park * - 66/1- needs a creditable run in his prep (a win or near-miss if a 3m+ chase)
• Gorgeous Tom * - 66/1 - post-weights needs to set a career-high 3m+ chase RPR by at least 5lbs 
• Jagwar * - 50/1 - needs a top 4 finish in a 3m+ chase to qualify for a run but, for my model's purposes, also needs to match or better his chase high RPR160 in that race
• Final Orders - 66/1 - needs to up his career-best chase RPR by 6+lbs over 3m+
• Panic Attack * - 20/1 - needs a win or near-miss in a 3m+ chase
• Twig - 50/1 -  needs to top his best 3m+ chase RPR by 2+lbs
• Marble Sands - 66/1 - ditto by 6+lbs
• Yeah Man - 66/1 - ditto by 7+lbs

I prefer others to all of these but if I had to pick one that piques my interest most, it would be Henry de Bromhead's Gorgeous Tom; closely related to Cappa Bleu (GN2nd and 4th) and Double Seven (GN 3rd).

RobinKeepsBobbin said:

I'm surprised you don't rate Haiti Couleurs. I have only seen him run twice but both times he led from start to finish. The only negative i can see is his age. If he runs i thin k he has a great chance.

He’s a terrific chaser and could pose a huge threat in the Gold Cup (I may well back him there).
But the Aintree GN is a unique race (materially different now post-2012 but still unique) and the principle behind my model is that there are certain types of horse and certain components of their pedigree that make them particularly suited or unsuited to the specifics of the race (though they may be lesser or great chasers otherwise) and that we can deduce those key components from recurring patterns in pedigrees which show meaningful outperformance vs representation - for example as demonstrated in the mitochondrial DNA analysis I posted earlier.
We don’t know HC’s mtDNA but his pedigree has, by my reckoning, little in common with those of the 11 horses to win an Aintree GN since 2013. Indeed little in common with those that have made the frame.
For example, specifically, neither his sire, nor any of his first 3 damsires had produced (as sire or damsire) a single Group 1 winner or prior Aintree GN winner or frame-maker.
That’s a big deal (in my model) when it comes to success in a modern Aintree GN. Of all the horses making the first 5 home in the 12 GNs since 2013, only Saint Are was similarly bereft.
Plus, his pedigree has relatively few of the linebreeding traits common to most of those GN winners and frame-makers.
For what it’s worth, my model similarly didn’t rate the pedigree of the hotly-fancied Intense Raffles last year.

Better Days Ahead returns to the track with a very nice, staying on close 2nd in the Boyne Hurdle.
For some bizarre reason, Bet365 have pushed him out to 66/1.
Unless he collapsed after the coverage ended, I would GET ON.

Athletico Charlton said:

Didn't last long, 50/1 when I went on!

Indeed and PP have pushed him out to 50s. 

Support today for one of JP's possible battalion Oscars Brother, having won the 3m novice chase.

Add him to the list of fancies that my model does NOT share.

• By Malinas, who's had 5 different sons run in the GN: PPPPF
• No WR (or relative of WR) anywhere in his pedigree: 12/12 last GN winners had WR in their pedigree and 10/10 of those beaten <5L in last 12 GNs had either WR or his relative Sea Hawk in their pedigree
• No linebreeding component of consequence. 
• In fact, scores a big fat 0 in pedigree fit with former winners and placed horses.

Will probably romp home 

Starinnaddick said:

Hi Peanuts
Difficult question I know but what weight would you give Captain Cody? 

Morning @Starinnaddick
Chris Cook of the RP gave his idea of the GN weights a few days ago.
He appears to reckon topweight (11.12) will be allotted to I Am Maximus alone.
He puts Capt Cody on 10.07.
Obviously the handicapper's a law unto himself but my view of what he may do is:

• The highest OR allotted in a modern GN is 167 and that includes Max last year when his actual OR at the time was 168 (i.e. even with a returning winner there's a continuing desire to trim the topweight by a lb or 2).
• I think he'll make Max (now IrishOR167) and Nick Rockett (IrishOR168 and unseen since his Aintree win, though absence typically cuts no ice) joint topweights at 167, Banbridge 166 (also -1). 
• I think he'll still apply an Irish premium (as he has in recent years) of 1~2lbs to most of the Irish-trained entries and I see no reason why Cody will escape that, as his last outing in Britain was a convincing win in the Scottish GN (only by 1L OK but the front 2 were well clear of 3rd and Cody won it strongly). His IrishOR was upped to 150 after that and though he's without a place in 3 chases since, the first was a Gr1 over 20f in which he was far from disgraced when beaten 9.5L, the 2nd a decent 9L 7th in December's PP Hdcp cavalry charge, and the last (when Townend's pick of the Mullins' squad when still rated 150) when falling first half of the Thyestes. So I think he'll be on 151 or 152. 
• Putting these together, would mean 10.08~10.09. A very winnable-with weight no matter what .................... if you wish to ignore his mtDNA