Grand National 2026

First impression, Spanish Harlem's been severely punished for that strong but unfortunate Thyestes run - GNOR159 (11.03).

The British handicapper had him at 155 for the Hennessy in which he PU'd on the previous run.
But, if he were to do the biz in the Bobbyjo, that 50/1 still available at Bet365 would look humungous.

Hadn't realised Spanish Harlem  is owned by Dr Peter FitzGerald of sponsors Randox Health so one assumes is pretty likely to head to Aintree despite the 5lb premium to his current Irish mark.

Patrick Mullins said: “That horse has been trained to get there. He was very disappointing for a long time, but extreme distances over fences has brought out the best in him.The profile is right in my book and I don’t see why he won’t take to the fences, he’s got plenty of experience and jumps well. I know he can throw in the odd clanger, but sometimes those horses can just have a little bit more respect for a new type of fence.”

Hold the back page.
The ground appears to be the concern for High Class Hero.
According to Mullins Jnr - "That run (when third in last season's Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown) was reminiscent of Nick Rockett's run in that race the year before. He's a high-class horse who does a lot of winning and likes nice ground. I don't think he handled the ground in the Thyestes, but we took a chance that day. He gets in with less than 11 stone and he's a relatively young and unexposed horse, so he has to be high on the list. He stays all day and the way he jumps will suit Aintree very well."

The full list for the 2026 Grand National weights

1 I Am Maximus 11st 12lb, OR 168
2 Banbridge 11st 11lb, OR 167
3 Nick Rockett 11st 11lb, OR 167
4 Gerri Colombe 11st 10lb, OR 166
5 Grangeclare West 11st 10lb, OR 166
6 Grey Dawning 11st 10lb, OR 166
7 Haiti Couleurs 11st 10lb, OR 166
8 L'Homme Presse 11st 8lb, OR 164
9 Spillane's Tower 11st 8lb, OR 164
10 Impaire Et Passe 11st 5lb, OR 161
11 Appreciate It 11st 4lb, OR 160
12 Firefox 11st 4lb, OR 160
13 Gentlemansgame 11st 3lb, OR 159
14 Monty's Star 11st 3lb, OR 159
15 Spanish Harlem 11st 3lb, OR 159
16 Lecky Watson 11st 2lb, OR 158
17 Champ Kiely 11st 1lb, OR 157
18 Favori De Champdou 11st 1lb, OR 157
19 Flooring Porter 11st 1lb, OR 157
20 Iroko 11st 1lb, OR 157
21 Western Fold 11st 1lb, OR 157
22 Three Card Brag 11st, OR 156
23 Handstands 10st 13lb, OR 155
24 Oscars Brother 10st 13lb, OR 155
25 Mr Vango 10st 12lb, OR 154
26 Beauport 10st 11lb, OR 153
27 Better Days Ahead 10st 11lb, OR 153
28 High Class Hero 10st 11lb, OR 153
29 Ile Atlantique 10st 11lb, OR 153
30 Resplendent Grey 10st 11lb, OR 153
31 Stellar Story 10st 11lb, OR 153
32 Captain Cody 10st 10lb, OR 152
33 French Dynamite 10st 10lb, OR 152
34 Jagwar 10st 10lb, OR 152
35 Gorgeous Tom 10st 9lb, OR 151
36 Perceval Legallois 10st 9lb, OR 151
37 Quai de Bourbon 10st 9lb, OR 151
38 The Real Whacker 10st 9lb, OR 151
39 Answer To Kayf 10st 8lb, OR 150
40 Croke Park 10st 8lb, OR 150
41 Jordans 10st 8lb, OR 150
42 Blizzard of Oz 10st 7lb, OR 149
43 Now Is The Hour 10st 7lb, OR 149
44 Intense Raffles 10st 6lb, OR 148
45 Final Orders 10st 5lb, OR 147
46 Marble Sands 10st 5lb, OR 147
47 Panic Attack 10st 5lb, OR 147
48 Top Of The Bill 10st 5lb, OR 147
49 Blaze The Way 10st 4lb, OR 146
50 Johnnywho 10st 4lb, OR 146
51 Leave of Absence 10st 4lb, OR 146
52 Twig 10st 4lb, OR 146
53 Pied Piper 10st 3lb, OR 145
54 Search For Glory 10st 3lb, OR 145
55 Stolen Silver 10st 3lb, OR 145
56 Ain't That A Shame 10st 2lb, OR 144
57 Amirite 10st 2lb, OR 144
58 Imperial Saint 10st 2lb, OR 144
59 Harry Des Ongrais 10st 1lb, OR 143
60 Hyland 10st 1lb, OR 143
61 Soul Icon 10st 1lb, OR 143
62 Yeah Man 10st 1lb, OR 143
63 Myretown 10st, OR 142
64 Deep Cave 9st 13lb, OR 141
65 Monbeg Genius 9st 13lb, OR 141
66 O'Moore Park 9st 13lb, OR 141
67 Pic Roc 9st 13lb, OR 141
68 Buddy One 9st 12lb, OR 140
69 Mister Coffey 9st 12lb, OR 140
70 Anyway 9st 11lb, OR 139
71 The Short Go 9st 10lb, OR 138
72 Shanbally Kid 9st 9lb, OR 137
73 Weveallbeencaught 9st 9lb, OR 137
74 Will Do 9st 9lb, OR 137
75 In D'Or 9st 7lb, OR 135
76 Deafening Silence 9st 6lb, OR 134

Comment from Olly Murphy re Resplendent Grey.

“It’s a nice weight (10.11). When he’s good he’s very good. He will go to Cheltenham in the meantime and we’ll see how we get on there and then make a plan re Aintree.

“Whether he’s a horse for a year down the line or for this year I’m not quite sure yet – I’ll have to speak to his owner. But he’s a high-class horse on his day and obviously stays very well.”

Make it this year Olly FFS.

With the Irish Trainers Title in the balance, this year's GN is trappy enough as regards intentions.

RobinKeepsBobbin said:

So peanuts with the weights now known has your opinion on anything significantly changed? 

The weights are essentially as expected, with the exception of Spanish Harlem being harshly treated IMO though, if he were to win or go close in the Bobbyjo, he could look well-in even with 159. 

The weights have made virtually no difference to my model’s assessment. Preps still could at the margin (Grangeclare West could thrust himself into the reckoning for a 5~10L place if he were to seriously impress in the Bobbyjo) but as CVs currently stand and assuming they all line up, my model reckons the top 10 (according their GN profiles, derived 80% from pedigrees and 20% from CVs), rank as follows:

WINNING CALIBRE (best fit with former winners and near-missers <5L):

• I AM MAXIMUS (nap) - backed at 12/1
• HIGH CLASS HERO - backed at 50/1
• RESPLENDENT GREY - backed at 40/1
• BETTER DAYS AHEAD - thought to be targeted at Fairyhouse

STRONG PLACE POTENTIAL (best fit with former frame-makers 5~10L):

• SPANISH HARLEM - backed at 50/1
• TOP OF THE BILL - backed at 100/1

MINOR PLACE POTENTIAL (10L+):

• ANSWER TO KAYF - definite intention to run, regardless of going (would certainly prefer Soft)
• NOW IS THE HOUR - not definite runner according to trainer
• SPILLANE’S TOWER - Gold Cup main target
• IROKO

Betting-wise, I'm looking to back 6 in total, so 1 to add.
The final pick will definitely be Better Days Ahead if they opt for Aintree with him, which I really hope they do.
Otherwise, it'll be between Answer To Kayf, Now Is The Hour and Spillane's Tower, unless another's prep adds to the conundrum. It's always the last pick that screws me around!

Big_Bob said:

What do you think of the chances of LECKY WATSON Peanuts?

I backed him at the start of the season at 66's, with being 8y/o second season chaser and from the all-conquering GN stable. Looked like a out and out stayer. I thought he won a pretty weak grade 1 at Chelt last year. He's now down to 25's, (was 50's last week?) despite showing nothing this year form wise, although run in top races all year. Unsure on his jumping too.

People must think he has a nice weight and will come good in the spring again. Am half-tempted to cash out tho, as I am unconvinced.

His profile is decent but not strong enough for my model's purposes and his pedigree isn't a great fit with recent frame-makers. 
That said, he ticks some nice CV boxes:

• in the sweet spot, age and experience wise - 8yo 2nd season chaser with 7 chases to date
• nice weight for a Brown Advisory winner at 11.02 and can't come from a better yard, as you say

That said, the form of that Brown Advisory hasn't set the world on fire:

21 subsequent runs from the participants has yielded 0 wins, though a decent number (9) places, including 3rd and 6th in the Irish GN and 4th in the Coral GC.

None from him however in 4 runs and this season's form obviously isn't great, hence his nice mark.

But that could look very different come Saturday, when he carries topweight and has to concede 12lbs to Gerri Colombe and Grangeclare West in the Bobbyjo (declared this morning).

Saturday is crucial for his GN chance - if he can go close when at such a disadvantage, over 26f and on probably testing ground, you'd have to regard it as a big + for Aintree. If he were on my radar screen, I'd want to see a new pb chase RPR around 165.

But in any event, he's not got a strong enough pedigree for an Aintree GN to make my shortlist.

........ famous last words!

StarryNight said:

Peanuts, out of curiosity, are you using the corrected version of your system, or the previous one? - I mean, last year after GN you've changed something, got rid of horses' age and ground/weather or some other, I think, and came up with almost correct winner list (would have to look in the old thread to check details but I'm lazy). Is that what you are using now or the original version? I remember it was mostly pedigree and experience that mattered in the end. I just wonder how the two different approaches would compare producing suggestions for this year.

In short, I'm using the new version of the model.

There's tweaks every year, as there's always at least 1 "outlier" that makes the frame and the tweaks are to reconcile them.

I'd describe versions I've used over the last few years as 50:50 Pedigree:CV but this year it's 80:20 Pedigree:CV.
That's because for 2 years running now the less reliable component has been the CV.

It's not just that the dominance of 2nd season chasers with limited chase exposure (last 4 winners had 7~9 chases under their belt) inevitably makes CVs less reliable as a screen but the race is clearly changing once again with the reduced field size. Higher-weighted horses clearly not so disadvantaged, perhaps owing to less misfortune in the race (2023's chaos accounted for the early departure of all 3 of my model's top selections).

Of the first 6 home In 2024 and 2025, while my own CV tests struggled, only Minella Indo and Ain't That A Shame (3rd and 6th in 2024) and Grangeclare West (3rd last year) had not been considered Winning or Frame-Making calibre by the model's Pedigree component.

In 2024, the pedigree component rated each of I Am Maximus (top-rated and winner of course), Delta Work (2nd), Galvin (4th) and Kittys Light (5th) among its top selections but the CV component caused me to scratch Delta Work and Galvin as both had missed their preps (the XC was abandoned).

Taking last year, of the eventual field the pedigree component rated the top 12 as follows, in order of its then assessment of "best-fit" with the pedigrees of former winners and placers since 2013:

I Am Maximus - 2nd
Kandoo Kid - Fell
Iroko - 4th
Vanillier - 14th (the big disappointment)
Minella Cocooner - 7th (saddle slipped at start)
Senior Chief - 6th
Conflated - PU
Nick Rockett - 1st
Meetingofthewaters - 5th
Minella Indo - 9th
Twig - 10th
Coko Beach - PU

Those in bold were the model's top picks after combining Pedigree and CV components; alas the latter prompting me to put a line through I Am Maximus (as well as Conflated and Meetingofthewaters) on season's form and the winner Nick Rockett (on GNOR/weight).

So 35% of the field contributed 80% of the first 10 past the line (missing only 3rd and 8th Hewick).
Far from perfect obviously (and it always will be), but not bad. It’s all about improving %s of course.

So, aside from the tweaks to and expansion of the pedigree component to reconcile Grangeclare West (and to spot why it had slightly under-rated Nick Rockett), I decided to give the CV elements, which numbered about 15 different elements, a severe prune. Gone are indeed age, along with weight to be carried and some aspects of career and season's form.

I still apply a handful of still strong CV tests as a final guide to distinguish potential winners from strong and minor place candidates. But NOT to eliminate any of the pedigree component's top selections.

So, my final selections are my model's top picks on pedigree alone - how I bet on them will depend on the fine distinctions of both pedigree and CV and how many I back will depend on the odds I can get to achieve a satisfactory return profile. I scale bets on the basis of being indifferent (so far as possible) as to which of the Winning Calibre picks win and which of any of them Place.

The big advantage of basing picks primarily on pedigrees is being able to take early prices, though it means more guesswork as to running intentions.

The danger is that, at some point, a new sire is going to throw a spanner in the works - hitherto all GN winners since 2013 have been descendants of Northern Dancer but there's an interesting sire (Ocovango, by Monsun) having his first GN runners this year (Champ Kiely, 2nd season chaser and closely related to Corach Rambler, Any Second Now and Gilgamboa, and Mr Vango, Midlands National winner and Becher Chase close 2nd and related to Grangeclare West - both over-priced IMHO at 66/1) and whose progeny has a promising record at >30f (2 winners and 1 frame-maker) from 4 horses to attempt a marathon trip somewhere in Britain and Ireland. 

If there's going to be an outlier making the frame this year - and there surely will be - it would not surprise me if it were one of these 2.

Sorry for droning on ad nauseam. Hope you're still awake