Grand National 2026

Although every runner that wins or impresses in tomorrow's Bobbyjo would surely attract support for the GN, there are 3 that are potential players at Aintree according to my model's pedigree assessment whose relative ratings would be enhanced if they were to run well:

Grangeclare West - allotted GNOR166 (3lbs higher than last year), it's worth reflecting on the fact that the highest winning GNOR since the introduction of the current handicap system in 1989 was Nick Rockett's 163 last year.

GW's best Chase RPR to date was set in that same GN (169) and, by my model's reckoning, if he's again to figure as prominently as he did 12 months ago, he'd need to show despite now being a 10 yo that he's progressed this season and can fend off the challenge of more lightly-weighted, unexposed 2nd season chasers, who've come to dominate the race since 2014.

In short, he needs not just a win tomorrow but an impressive one and, ideally, a new pb Chase RPR >170.

Not impossible but improbable.

Spanish Harlem - by my model's pedigree assessment alone he has the strongest GN-profile lining up tomorrow (among GN entries 2nd only to that of I Am Maximus).

He thus already has at least Place Potential at Aintree but, as he's relatively exposed and his GNOR159 looks a stretch based on his current CV, a win or near-miss tomorrow and new pb RPR of 161+ (now 157) would both justify that GN mark and elevate him to Winning Calibre profile, according to my model. 

Answer To Kayf - he may be a 10yo but, a second season chaser, tomorrow is only his 8th chase. He has a failure at 30f but, as previously explained, that race has good subsequent form and was on quicker than ideal ground.

He'll have his testing ground tomorrow and, if he has the ability to figure in a GN, he'll at least need to run creditably against rivals advantaged by the weight conditions of the race (relative to the GN, tomorrow he's badly off with Grangeclare West by 16lbs, Spanish Harlem by 9lbs. Three Card Brag by 6lbs for example).

He was 10L+ adrift of and held by Spanish Harlem (giving SH 4lbs) at the last fence in the 25f Thyestes, in which he was eventually 4th (SH looked the winner at the last before the jockey fell off), so with both carrying 11.00 he has it all to do with him alone tomorrow.

At present, my model rates his GN profile as Place Potential (joint 7th best). If he were to defy the weights tomorrow and win or near-miss, he'd catapult himself to Winning Calibre status (joint 3rd with Resplendent Grey) and would have to be backed (IMHO) if the Aintree going were Soft.

Currently 10/1 best price for tomorrow and 66/1 for the GN. Tricky decision ahead of tomorrow afternoon!

A word on the Eider Chase.

It's 18 years since the Eider last served up the GN winner (Comply Or Die) and the rise in mark required to line up at Aintree over the years has sadly made it increasingly irrelevant as a GN trial.
Until this year.

Mr VANGO heads the weights and the market for the 33.5f marathon at Newcastle tomorrow and, while his pedigree is a trifle short of GN frame-making quality by my (current) model's reckoning, he'd have been right up among the favourites for an old-style GN, instead of the 66/1 outsider he is for April's race. 

He has a couple of damside positives that, set alongside his CV, give him a distinct "outlier" feel.
Fairly closely related (via his 5th Dam) to both Grangeclare West (GN3rd last year) and Gunner Welburn (GN4th in 2003), he's also meaningfully linebred to Timeform 144-rated Tudor Minstrel (as was the last dour stayer to win the GN Auroras Encore, Pineau De Re and Noble Yeats.
But it's his CV that's interesting: being a winner over 34f and over 30.5f (3 attempts at >30f) and close 2nd in last December's Becher Chase over the GN fences.
Punters have been disappointed in GNs by former Becher winners/near-missers in recent years but they forget that it still throws up a number of same-season GN frame-makers (Saint Are in 2015, Vics Canvas 3rd in 2016, and Walk In The Mill in 2018 and a winner (One For Arthur in 2017). None of these also had winning form at 4m.
Moreover, relative to his GNOR154, the RPR161 he notched in the Becher is at a bigger premium than that enjoyed by any of those former GN frame-makers. 

As said, he is a trifle short of the quality of pedigree by my current model's reckoning because the key negative is the pedigree of his sire, Ocovango.

Ocovango doesn't fit the pedigree profile of a GN-winning sire. But that doesn't rule out a son of his as a GN-placer and, more to the point, while he's yet to have any progeny run in a GN, he's had 4 of his offspring chance their leg at 30f+; 2 of them winning (Mr Vango and Inis Oirr, winner of the Edinburgh National) and a 3rd placing in a decent quality handicap at Punchestown. Together they've racked up 10 attempts, producing 3 wins and a place.

There will surely come a time when the descendants of Northern Dancer no longer reign supreme in the Aintree GN. Could Ocovango usurp the Throne? At lesser grade, his sons have a pretty decent strike rate (per attempt and per horse).

A 4m stayer that we know handles the GN fences, at one time, I would have been all over Mr Vango as a GN e/w bet, especially if there was a prospect of Soft ground. And the staying steeplechase lover in me itches to have a piece of the 66s.

I may just do for old times sake if it pisses down.

A bit of support for Answer To Kayf for the Bobbyjo.
I nabbed him at 11s e/w yesterday but he’s now in to 6/1. May or may not be result of being the Pricewise selection. 

Going back to the Ocovango question - i.e. given the positive but small-sample record of his progeny over 30~34f, could his first GN runners (Champ Kiely or Mr Vango - both well connected on the damside) produce a GN winner to dethrone the Northern Dancer sire-line?

I'm using AI for the first time to ascertain (hopefully accurately) whether JP McManus, still a prolific buyer of top class chasers when available, has found Ocovango interesting enough to purchase any of his progeny.

The answer currently appears to be No.

Good enough for me, for present purposes. 

Sorry to bore everyone with the ins and outs of my GN-related betting but, since I bang on so much on the workings and views of my model, it's only fair that I put my head on the block and am transparent about how I apply it to a betting slip.

I decided this morning to cash out for a small profit my e/w on Answer To Kayf today, leaving me with my win interest in Spanish Harlem alone. I just love the horse. He's like a relentlessly galloping stayer of old that may just have the breeding, and a smidge of quality, to win a modern GN - fortune permitting.

And I've decided to make ATK the 6th member of my GN team and have taken the 66s e/w for 5 places.
So long as he has a decent spin today, with weights against, that's satisfactory from my perspective as a GN prep. Of course, being in the mix at the business end, which I still believe possible, would be hugely encouraging but could well see the 66s disappear.

I'm no longer in need of a hedge because I've decided to take the plunge on him for Aintree, as I want a 3rd GN runner that will appreciate Soft ground.
High Class Hero, Resplendent Grey and Top Of The Bill all prefer a sounder surface (the last 2 IMO both being Spring ground horses) and, given the winter we've had and the unsettled forecast into mid April, I'd like have more than I Am Maximus and Spanish Harlem running for me that would appreciate slower ground.

According to his trainer, bar injury, he's also a definite runner, unlike all 3 of the the others remaining on the short-list - Better Days Ahead (win calibre), Now Is The Hour (place calibre) and Spillanes Tower (who would need to put in a strong show in the Gold Cup to confirm place calibre) - about each of whom their trainers have in varying degrees questioned their participation. 

And I've learned courtesy of sod's law not to second-guess my model - especially it's pedigree assessment - though, obviously, it's absolutely not infallible.

It rates Answer To Kayf as the most promisingly-bred son of Kayf Tara to line up for a GN (including GN4th Blaklion) and the joint 5th best among the 2026 GN entries and I'm particularly disinclined to second-guess it in respect of a 2nd season chaser having only its 8th chase today.

Hopefully he'll run well today but, regardless, ANSWER TO KAYF at 66/1 is now my 6th ante-post e/w interest for Aintree.

RP accords Grangeclare West an RPR168 (1lb below his pb set in the last GN) for his Bobbyjo victory.
It was a fine win, principally because he did it so nicely on ground that was thought unfavourable. However, CV stats-wise from my model's perspective, it's not strong enough for a follow-up this April off his GNOR166.
But it would be daft to deny he's a huge threat.
Townend's choice of ride at Aintree will be fascinating and could well determine the favourite.

Stellar Story (14L 3rd, giving GW 8lbs) notched a new career-best RPR160 (+6) and runner up Gerri Colombe RPR161.

Answer To Kayf matched his career-best RPR150, which I reckon supports my view that the market pushing him out to 100/1 was an over-reaction to a 16L defeat at level weights with a winner from whom he'll receive 16lbs at Aintree. A respectable prep though it confirmed that, having limited gears, he needs it to keep raining to have a chance of making the frame.

Saturday's Premier Chase at Kelso likely to see Iroko have his GN prep.
He needs to set a new pb RPR165 for my model to promote him to Strong Place Potential for the GN, with a profile akin to Saint Are and Delta Work.
While his pedigree is strong overall, like both of those repeat GN frame-makers, it has a key deficiency in the sire-line when it comes to Winning Calibre.
He'll possibly face Protektorat on Saturday, among others, which would give a fascinating form line to Resplendent Grey, who was conceding 4lbs when beaten 4L last outing by Protektorat. 
He'll be receiving 4lbs from Iroko at Aintree, if he lines up.

The Sunday before Cheltenham as usual sees the Leinster National over 24f at Naas (8 March).
Not a common source of GN success though Rare Bob (2013 GN5th) and Goonyella (2016 GN 5th) were close 3rd and 2nd in it prior to Aintree.

This year, 5 of GN entries (4 of them Willie Mullins' charges) with a chance of making the cut are entered:

• High Class Hero
• Quai De Bourbon
• Captain Cody
• Now Is The Hour
• Blizzard Of Oz

A safe spin from High Class Hero would suffice to confirm Winning Calibre (the strongest of the 2nd season chasers) for the Big One, according to my model.
Ditto for Now Is The Hour to confirm Place Potential, though a win or near-miss off his career-high IrishOR149 (+8lbs for his Thyestes win) would obviously be a huge +.
Will be 34 days before the big day.

oldbloke said:

Eight scratched for Aintree four from Mullins yard. 

Cheers @oldbloke

I count 7 (3 of Mullins) from those whose prices have been wiped on Oddschecker.
I'm probably missing one somewhere.

Beaufort Scale (Elliott)
Blizzard Of Oz (Mullins)
Mister Coffey (Henderson)
Ile Atlantique (Mullins)
Flooring Porter (Cromwell - he was bullish about him at the weights)
Impaire Et Passe (Mullins)
Deafening Silence (Skelton)

Better Days Ahead and Now Is The Hour still in.

GNOR151 and 152 now guaranteed a run, including Quai De Bourbon, Gorgeous Tom, Captain Cody, Jagwar.

Wish they'd go NRNB - probably won't happen till after Cheltenham.

Starinnaddick said:

A piece of random information.
 Looking in to Panic Attack I discovered that Willie Mullins trained him to win a National Hunt Flat race before he joined Martin Pipe. 

Well spotted - btw he is a she of course.

oldbloke said:

I think we are seeing the first signs with Grand National and Cheltenham scratchings that the Irish Trainers title is impacting decisions. Gordon leads and has already beat his total of last year. My conclusion is we may see more than normal Irish defections for this year's aintree national and very strong Irish national and punchestown festival entries.

I agree. General view seems to be that the cut will likely be lower than last 2 years (i.e. <145) but I'm not so sure of that - seems like it's already affected entries by both Elliott and Mullins, though doubtless one or two will be diverted to Fairyhouse.

Top Of The Bill is 147 and 9 above him coming out (possibly as few as 6) would guarantee him a berth. If he handles the fences I really fancy a bold show from him. 

Hmm, not sure that was quite what the doctor ordered for High Class Hero in the Leinster National today.

An amateur claiming 7lbs on board to ease his top weight on ground that doesn't suit, he dumped her in the prelims (thankfully caught soon and able to line up) and then jumped round in rear division until being PUd in the home straight. No problem on bare result but he didn't look especially fluent. How much was down to the jockey (0 wins in now 34 chases Under Rules in the last 5 seasons), how much the ground and how much something to be concerned about, who knows but no change in his GN prices (best 50/1, generally 40s). 

Notable that the 3 that were in contention at the end all relish testing ground and, with the ground drying this side of the puddle and another 34 days to the big day, unless we hear of something amiss I'm not going to second guess my model's rating of him, on a decent surface, as one of the leading contenders among 2nd season chasers potentially lining up at Aintree.

I take comfort in the fact that his career-best hurdles and chase form both came in April/May on Good~Gd/Y  but there's always 1 that I've backed ante-post that gives me the heeby-jeebies in their final prep