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The mathematics of relegation
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I admire your optimism, but I'm a simple soul. Get up to 12th place or better and I'll start thinking about promotion possibilities. On or under 13th and relegation is my concern.usetobunkin said:Our P number ( Auto promotion) 33 ? But max P is 30. , so auto is not mathematically possible.
P( p) Playoffs 30 ? So playoffs are still mathematically possible ( unlikely) . But think P (p) could be as low as 27. Thoughts? And please feel free to critique the numbers and point out my errors.3 -
usetobunkin said:Our P number ( Auto promotion) 33 ? But max P is 30. , so auto is not mathematically possible.
P( p) Playoffs 30 ? So playoffs are still mathematically possible ( unlikely) . But think P (p) could be as low as 27. Thoughts? And please feel free to critique the numbers and point out my errors.
I'd prefer not to confuse this thread with any thoughts about automatic promotion and/or play-offs. This is about relegation.
And I think the methodology doesn't work at the top end of the table as the potential number of points scored is open-ended. For example, Coventry at the moment could get 104 points and Middlesbrough 99 (or 96 after we win there on Wednesday).
Similarly with the play-offs ... the target is not definite, so there is no real equivalent to the R number.
Feel free to start your own thread though. Can't have enough tripe.1 -
I once went on a road trip through france. Thought i would try the local delicacies in an open minded way and ordered tripe a la mode de caen in a restaurant in, you guessed it, Caen.
Fucking disgusting, couldn't eat more than about 3 of the 12 pieces of disgusting fatty gristle gloating in a watery soup. I can definitely say that you can have too much tripe and on that day i definitely ate too much of it and left too much of it. Rank3 -
No impact on the R number tonight after Leicester's win ... it stays at 22 and Leicester and Oxford remain as the 'critical teams'.
Things might be different in 24 hours.2 -
After tonight's entirely predictable win at Middlesbrough, the R number plummets to 19.
Leicester and/or Oxford remain as the 'critical team', but one or two others are moving into frame quite nicely.5 -
So things are different after today. There are 9 games to go, so 27 points available. If we score no points, Oxford and Leicester both need 10 points to overtake us. I think that means R is 18, if we had 18 more points today they couldn't mathematically i overtake us. I may have completely got this wrong. Hopefully they wont get anywhere close to getting a load of wins anyway0
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would I be right in thinking that a draw V oxford is worth "a win" for the R number in the sense that Oxford lose 2 points from their "top score" and we get 1 closer to it?Dave Rudd said:After tonight's entirely predictable win at Middlesbrough, the R number plummets to 19.
Leicester and/or Oxford remain as the 'critical team', but one or two others are moving into frame quite nicely.2 -
Manic_mania said:
would I be right in thinking that a draw V oxford is worth "a win" for the R number in the sense that Oxford lose 2 points from their "top score" and we get 1 closer to it?Dave Rudd said:After tonight's entirely predictable win at Middlesbrough, the R number plummets to 19.
Leicester and/or Oxford remain as the 'critical team', but one or two others are moving into frame quite nicely.
Correct.0 -
Alwaysneil said:So things are different after today. There are 9 games to go, so 27 points available. If we score no points, Oxford and Leicester both need 10 points to overtake us. I think that means R is 18, if we had 18 more points today they couldn't mathematically i overtake us. I may have completely got this wrong. Hopefully they wont get anywhere close to getting a load of wins anyway
Not quite right.
As the 'critical teams' (equal third worst at the moment) both Leicester and Oxford could both theoretically score another 27 points with nine games to go. Currently they both have 38 points, so they could each finish on 65. Note that they have already played each other.
That means we currently need 66 points (ignoring any effect of Goal Difference) to be mathematically certain of avoiding relegation. Yes, yes ... I know we will not need anything like that in actuality, but we are talking about mathematical certainty at the moment. I also realise that the 66 points target is probably reduced by the fact that other potential relegation candidates have to play each other but, as the permutations are too great at the moment, I have chosen to ignore that. We can pick that aspect up as the number of remaining games reduces and things become a little easier to calculate.
So, our current target (for mathematical certainty) is 66 points. At the moment we have 47.
This means that the R number currently stands at 19.
Your post is wrong because ... if we had 18 more points, we would have 65 points. Both Leicester and Oxford could get 65 too (38 plus 27), so we need one extra point to be mathematically certain of finishing above them.
Leicester and Oxford could soon be replaced by West Brom, Blackburn or Portsmouth as the 'critical team' and this will have an effect on the R number too.
Doubtless we will go through this again before the season ends. Luckily I have the patience of a saint.2 -
Reading this thread makes my head hurt8
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Just be thankful Swords Alive hasn't started one yet 🤔Bedsaddick said:Reading this thread makes my head hurt6 -
Today's draw at Oxford (did anyone else see the ghost of Ronnie Schwartz as Kelman lined up for the penalty?) sees the R number drop to 17 and West Brom are now the 'critical team'.
Things may improve even more at 5pm.3 -
Oh yeah, i chose 18 as we were significantly ahead on goal difference but of course one of the teams below us could win by loads and we could lose by loads so that makes sense that it was 19, now 17Dave Rudd said:Alwaysneil said:So things are different after today. There are 9 games to go, so 27 points available. If we score no points, Oxford and Leicester both need 10 points to overtake us. I think that means R is 18, if we had 18 more points today they couldn't mathematically i overtake us. I may have completely got this wrong. Hopefully they wont get anywhere close to getting a load of wins anyway
Not quite right.
As the 'critical teams' (equal third worst at the moment) both Leicester and Oxford could both theoretically score another 27 points with nine games to go. Currently they both have 38 points, so they could each finish on 65. Note that they have already played each other.
That means we currently need 66 points (ignoring any effect of Goal Difference) to be mathematically certain of avoiding relegation. Yes, yes ... I know we will not need anything like that in actuality, but we are talking about mathematical certainty at the moment. I also realise that the 66 points target is probably reduced by the fact that other potential relegation candidates have to play each other but, as the permutations are too great at the moment, I have chosen to ignore that. We can pick that aspect up as the number of remaining games reduces and things become a little easier to calculate.
So, our current target (for mathematical certainty) is 66 points. At the moment we have 47.
This means that the R number currently stands at 19.
Your post is wrong because ... if we had 18 more points, we would have 65 points. Both Leicester and Oxford could get 65 too (38 plus 27), so we need one extra point to be mathematically certain of finishing above them.
Leicester and Oxford could soon be replaced by West Brom, Blackburn or Portsmouth as the 'critical team' and this will have an effect on the R number too.
Doubtless we will go through this again before the season ends. Luckily I have the patience of a saint.1 -
Today is not being good to Leicester.3
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Or notDave Rudd said:Today's draw at Oxford (did anyone else see the ghost of Ronnie Schwartz as Kelman lined up for the penalty?) sees the R number drop to 17 and West Brom are now the 'critical team'.
Things may improve even more at 5pm.1 -
Am I right thinking the R number is 16 ?0
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We’ve made huge strides this week with the 7 points picked up, but with so many sides in that bottom 8 showing signs of life, we can’t afford to be at all complacent.A couple of weeks ago, my gut was telling me 47 or 48 points might be enough, but I feel like it’s creeping up again.
It’s complicated a bit because Leicester and West Brom probably both have better squads than their league position suggests so are capable of going on a bit of a run if they can put aside the other factors that have dragged them down there. Not to mention the slim chance Leicester might get some points reinstated by the EFL if their appeal is successful.
We’re still in a good position but I’m starting to think even 50 might not be quite enough. If we were now sat on 53 points then I’d be feeling very safe but until then we get there (which I think we will) or a couple of teams below us (excluding Sheffield W) lose 3 or 4 more games, I’m not counting any chickens.The games vs Sheff W and Preston look like prime opportunities to get us over the line, but our record against the bottom 8 isn’t strong.
What a different picture it’d be if we’d beaten Leicester at the Valley, or could’ve hung on to the late equalizer at Fratton Park and the 2-0 lead at Ewood Park.1 -
Leicester’s home defeat today reduces the R number now to 16 and Oxford become the ‘critical team’.
Quite a good week really.4 -
It was suggested earlier that if you didn't get this thread then go to the beer thread. I did that, but couldn't find the B number eitherBedsaddick said:Reading this thread makes my head hurt
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It works both ways sadly, what if WBA had held on to a draw away to us or Oxford held on to the win today?Exiled_Addick said:We’ve made huge strides this week with the 7 points picked up, but with so many sides in that bottom 8 showing signs of life, we can’t afford to be at all complacent.A couple of weeks ago, my gut was telling me 47 or 48 points might be enough, but I feel like it’s creeping up again.
It’s complicated a bit because Leicester and West Brom probably both have better squads than their league position suggests so are capable of going on a bit of a run if they can put aside the other factors that have dragged them down there. Not to mention the slim chance Leicester might get some points reinstated by the EFL if their appeal is successful.
We’re still in a good position but I’m starting to think even 50 might not be quite enough. If we were now sat on 53 points then I’d be feeling very safe but until then we get there (which I think we will) or a couple of teams below us (excluding Sheffield W) lose 3 or 4 more games, I’m not counting any chickens.The games vs Sheff W and Preston look like prime opportunities to get us over the line, but our record against the bottom 8 isn’t strong.
What a different picture it’d be if we’d beaten Leicester at the Valley, or could’ve hung on to the late equalizer at Fratton Park and the 2-0 lead at Ewood Park.
Agreed though the 7 points picked up in the last 3 games is pretty much our buffer now from the relegation zone. It's quite crazy if you look at it that way that our safety buffer pretty much only goes back 8 days.
I think as it stands 52/53 pts has to be the aim. That needs Oxford to take no more than 12 points from the last 8 games which means winning 4 of the last 8 as a maximum and still being enough to finish above them.0 -
100% think Oxford are definitely down now, running out of matches fast, had there chance, and blew it today.
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Of course, it's all ifs and buts. You could also say it would be different if Boro had beaten us on Wednesday, like would normally happen with that much dominance in a game. We are where we are, and that's that. No harm in speculating on what might have been, though.MartinCAFC said:
It works both ways sadly, what if WBA had held on to a draw away to us or Oxford held on to the win today?Exiled_Addick said:We’ve made huge strides this week with the 7 points picked up, but with so many sides in that bottom 8 showing signs of life, we can’t afford to be at all complacent.A couple of weeks ago, my gut was telling me 47 or 48 points might be enough, but I feel like it’s creeping up again.
It’s complicated a bit because Leicester and West Brom probably both have better squads than their league position suggests so are capable of going on a bit of a run if they can put aside the other factors that have dragged them down there. Not to mention the slim chance Leicester might get some points reinstated by the EFL if their appeal is successful.
We’re still in a good position but I’m starting to think even 50 might not be quite enough. If we were now sat on 53 points then I’d be feeling very safe but until then we get there (which I think we will) or a couple of teams below us (excluding Sheffield W) lose 3 or 4 more games, I’m not counting any chickens.The games vs Sheff W and Preston look like prime opportunities to get us over the line, but our record against the bottom 8 isn’t strong.
What a different picture it’d be if we’d beaten Leicester at the Valley, or could’ve hung on to the late equalizer at Fratton Park and the 2-0 lead at Ewood Park.
Agreed though the 7 points picked up in the last 3 games is pretty much our buffer now from the relegation zone. It's quite crazy if you look at it that way that our safety buffer pretty much only goes back 8 days.
I think as it stands 52/53 pts has to be the aim. That needs Oxford to take no more than 12 points from the last 8 games which means winning 4 of the last 8 as a maximum and still being enough to finish above them.
I think the target has to be to get to a point where 3 teams would need more than 1.5 points per game, to the end of the season, to catch us. Teams often find a short run like that at the business end of the season, especially as mid table sides start to check-out for the summer. I'm confident we'll do it, but I'm not taking it for granted.1 -
If and it's a big if, Leicester and Oxford both get 1.5 points per game from their remaing 8 games then they only get to 50 and 51 points, respectively.Exiled_Addick said:
Of course, it's all ifs and buts. You could also say it would be different if Boro had beaten us on Wednesday, like would normally happen with that much dominance in a game. We are where we are, and that's that. No harm in speculating on what might have been, though.MartinCAFC said:
It works both ways sadly, what if WBA had held on to a draw away to us or Oxford held on to the win today?Exiled_Addick said:We’ve made huge strides this week with the 7 points picked up, but with so many sides in that bottom 8 showing signs of life, we can’t afford to be at all complacent.A couple of weeks ago, my gut was telling me 47 or 48 points might be enough, but I feel like it’s creeping up again.
It’s complicated a bit because Leicester and West Brom probably both have better squads than their league position suggests so are capable of going on a bit of a run if they can put aside the other factors that have dragged them down there. Not to mention the slim chance Leicester might get some points reinstated by the EFL if their appeal is successful.
We’re still in a good position but I’m starting to think even 50 might not be quite enough. If we were now sat on 53 points then I’d be feeling very safe but until then we get there (which I think we will) or a couple of teams below us (excluding Sheffield W) lose 3 or 4 more games, I’m not counting any chickens.The games vs Sheff W and Preston look like prime opportunities to get us over the line, but our record against the bottom 8 isn’t strong.
What a different picture it’d be if we’d beaten Leicester at the Valley, or could’ve hung on to the late equalizer at Fratton Park and the 2-0 lead at Ewood Park.
Agreed though the 7 points picked up in the last 3 games is pretty much our buffer now from the relegation zone. It's quite crazy if you look at it that way that our safety buffer pretty much only goes back 8 days.
I think as it stands 52/53 pts has to be the aim. That needs Oxford to take no more than 12 points from the last 8 games which means winning 4 of the last 8 as a maximum and still being enough to finish above them.
I think the target has to be to get to a point where 3 teams would need more than 1.5 points per game, to the end of the season, to catch us. Teams often find a short run like that at the business end of the season, especially as mid table sides start to check-out for the summer. I'm confident we'll do it, but I'm not taking it for granted.0 -
Without having read the whole thread is the 'critical team' critical to us, or them?0
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Effectively it is the team in the division that is capable of achieving the third lowest points total if they win all their remaining games.Zulu said:Without having read the whole thread is the 'critical team' critical to us, or them?
So Oxford (that team at the moment) can reach a points total of 63 if they win all eight games.
The "R" figure is 16, as that would take us to 64 points. That figure reduces as we gain points or the third "worst" team fails to gain points.3 -
Yep, which means a few points over 50 should be good. But, to be extra safe we should factor in the possibility the Leicester's points deduction will be reduced.superclive98 said:
If and it's a big if, Leicester and Oxford both get 1.5 points per game from their remaing 8 games then they only get to 50 and 51 points, respectively.Exiled_Addick said:
Of course, it's all ifs and buts. You could also say it would be different if Boro had beaten us on Wednesday, like would normally happen with that much dominance in a game. We are where we are, and that's that. No harm in speculating on what might have been, though.MartinCAFC said:
It works both ways sadly, what if WBA had held on to a draw away to us or Oxford held on to the win today?Exiled_Addick said:We’ve made huge strides this week with the 7 points picked up, but with so many sides in that bottom 8 showing signs of life, we can’t afford to be at all complacent.A couple of weeks ago, my gut was telling me 47 or 48 points might be enough, but I feel like it’s creeping up again.
It’s complicated a bit because Leicester and West Brom probably both have better squads than their league position suggests so are capable of going on a bit of a run if they can put aside the other factors that have dragged them down there. Not to mention the slim chance Leicester might get some points reinstated by the EFL if their appeal is successful.
We’re still in a good position but I’m starting to think even 50 might not be quite enough. If we were now sat on 53 points then I’d be feeling very safe but until then we get there (which I think we will) or a couple of teams below us (excluding Sheffield W) lose 3 or 4 more games, I’m not counting any chickens.The games vs Sheff W and Preston look like prime opportunities to get us over the line, but our record against the bottom 8 isn’t strong.
What a different picture it’d be if we’d beaten Leicester at the Valley, or could’ve hung on to the late equalizer at Fratton Park and the 2-0 lead at Ewood Park.
Agreed though the 7 points picked up in the last 3 games is pretty much our buffer now from the relegation zone. It's quite crazy if you look at it that way that our safety buffer pretty much only goes back 8 days.
I think as it stands 52/53 pts has to be the aim. That needs Oxford to take no more than 12 points from the last 8 games which means winning 4 of the last 8 as a maximum and still being enough to finish above them.
I think the target has to be to get to a point where 3 teams would need more than 1.5 points per game, to the end of the season, to catch us. Teams often find a short run like that at the business end of the season, especially as mid table sides start to check-out for the summer. I'm confident we'll do it, but I'm not taking it for granted.1 -
So. At this point we need 55 points to guarantee safety.0
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Don't think so. How do you arrive at 55 points?up_the_valley said:So. At this point we need 55 points to guarantee safety.0 -
Mathssuperclive98 said:
Don't think so. How do you arrive at 55 points?up_the_valley said:So. At this point we need 55 points to guarantee safety.4
