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How Many points for Championship Survival? and How do we get them?

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  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 16,957
    MarcusH26 said:
    Probably being overly cautious with Blackburns run in but I still feel like 3 wins to be absolutely safe 
    That puts us on 56 points. For Oxford and West Brom to even reach 55 points they'd need 2 points per game, there is absolutely no chance of that happening. Oxford are on their best run of the season and are averaging 1.4 points per game over the last 10 and 1.6 over the last 6. I think people are being waaaay too cautious  
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 16,957
    Out of interest I did this (excellent) predictor quickly and this is what I got ( I didn't bother with GD)

    https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=2




  • se9addick
    se9addick Posts: 32,562
    fenaddick said:
    Out of interest I did this (excellent) predictor quickly and this is what I got ( I didn't bother with GD)

    https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=2




    Poor Sheffield Wednesday!
  • soapboxsam
    soapboxsam Posts: 23,672
    se9addick said:
    fenaddick said:
    Out of interest I did this (excellent) predictor quickly and this is what I got ( I didn't bother with GD)

    https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=2




    Poor Sheffield Wednesday!

    Poor old 'massive'  have fallen off the bottom of the page as they are so far behind !
  • bobmunro
    bobmunro Posts: 21,455
    MarcusH26 said:
    Probably being overly cautious with Blackburns run in but I still feel like 3 wins to be absolutely safe 

    That would put us on 56 (assuming we lose the other six. I cannot see any way that two from Blackburn, Leicester, Oxford and West Brom will get to 55.

    For me - 50 is probably safe, 52 definitely.
  • soapboxsam
    soapboxsam Posts: 23,672
    edited March 13
    fenaddick said:
    Out of interest I did this (excellent) predictor quickly and this is what I got ( I didn't bother with GD)

    https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=2





    That's interesting Fen:

    We have had so many feelings of elation -Leicester and Middlesbrough away and desolation at home with Pompey and the pathetic performance in the Derby at the Den that I went back to my thoughts at the beginning of the season and where I believed we would finish.

    17th and 10 points clear of the 22nd team. I still think that, as we may go higher for a while but once we get to the last few games -end of season thoughts of holidays will kick in and other teams might have more to play for.

    First season back in the Championship and losing Edwards without a replacement Left footed player did cost Cafc our early momentum to the 25/26 campaign.
  • CharltonManor1966
    CharltonManor1966 Posts: 429
    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Elthamaddick said:
    Crispywood said:
    Hoping it’s West Brom and Blackburn who go down. If next season we find ourselves in a similar position I’d much prefer an Oxford in the division than a West Brom and Blackburn who get it together. 
    Don’t think we will be in a relegation scrap but 2nd season syndrome is a big thing at championship level. 
    was about to post exactly the same thing
    It’s why players like Coady and Dykes are very important. Experienced and can help out the less experienced players.
    That is also why we need to be buying or loaning in these types early next season. Not leaving it till January.
    2nd season syndrome will require Champ nouse and experience as well as added quality in the midfield and up front. Obviously our own in house players will have gained experience this year at Champ level but Coady and Dykes types are hugely important to us next year. 
  • PeaksAndValleys
    PeaksAndValleys Posts: 139
    edited March 13
    letthegoodtimesroll said:
    cafc_se7 said:
    I think we need 1 win and 1 draw! 
    That gives us 51 points. With 9 games to go there are 27 points up for grabs for the teams below us (30 for Pompey) and they would need to win a maximum of 4 games and draw 1 to catch us. You can’t rule out any team below us doing that (even Sheff Wednesday though it wouldn’t be enough to catch us even if they won all 9).
    You can't rule out any one team, but you can get pretty close to ruling out all of them doing it. If we hit 51 then for us to go down, the following all needs to happen (for simplicity ignore goal difference, ignore QPR and assume West Brom stay 23rd as currently): 

    - Oxford get 1.56 ppg (vs season ppg of 1.03)
    - Leicester get 1.56 ppg (vs non deduction season ppg of 1.19) 
    - Blackburn get 1.44 ppg (vs season ppg of 1.05) 
    - Portsmouth get 1.2 ppg (vs season ppg of 1.11) 

    If even one of those massive jumps in form doesn't happen, we clear relegation on 51 points.

    For additional context, us only getting to 51 would represent a massive drop in form, down to 0.44 ppg (vs season ppg of 1.27)
  • Billy_Mix
    Billy_Mix Posts: 2,822
    51 points will be sufficient to stay up this season allowing for the uncertainty over Leicester's "punishment".
    we need to avoid any more hidings in any games we lose 
    52 points will be safe even with shocking goal difference

  • PeaksAndValleys
    PeaksAndValleys Posts: 139
    Honestly don't think it will even need that much. Said a few weeks ago on here that PPG for the relegation line was continuing to track at or just above 1 a game, so 47/48 needed for survival.

    Three or four games later, that's still the case. No good reason to think it's suddenly going to change, particularly with the tough fixtures for some of the teams down there. 

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  • letthegoodtimesroll
    letthegoodtimesroll Posts: 11,134
    Billy_Mix said:
    51 points will be sufficient to stay up this season allowing for the uncertainty over Leicester's "punishment".
    we need to avoid any more hidings in any games we lose 
    52 points will be safe even with shocking goal difference

    Losing 7 of our last 9 games sounds like it would be inviting teams below us to push us into a relegation space 
  • Billy_Mix
    Billy_Mix Posts: 2,822
    edited March 13
    letthegoodtimesroll said:
    Billy_Mix said:
    51 points will be sufficient to stay up this season allowing for the uncertainty over Leicester's "punishment".
    we need to avoid any more hidings in any games we lose 
    52 points will be safe even with shocking goal difference

    Losing 7 of our last 9 games sounds like it would be inviting teams below us to push us into a relegation space 
    I'm not predicting we'll achieve as few as 51, just that's all that's needed to stay up.
    Also not sure that if we or QPR or Pompey fell apart that would significantly improve the form of WBA, Oxford or Blackburn. 
  • RonnieMoore
    RonnieMoore Posts: 4,920
    Officially 52 is the safe figure … 
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 16,957
    RonnieMoore said:
    Officially 52 is the safe figure … 
    Is it? Didn't know you weren't allowed to be relegated on 52 points
  • Rothko
    Rothko Posts: 19,042
    We’re going to finish closer to 60
  • SouthLincsAddick
    SouthLincsAddick Posts: 647
    RonnieMoore said:
    Officially 52 is the safe figure … 
    What organisation is making that official statement, EFL, SSN, BBC, FA or Ronnie? 🤣
  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,910
    I asked the all knowing all seeing ChatGPT to give us its predictions 


  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,910
    edited March 13
    Out of interest I asked ChatGPT about the top. 
    1 Coventry
    2 Middleboro
    3 Ipswich ( Playoff Winner)
    4 Millwall ( Playoff Finalist)
    5 Hull
    6 Wrexham
  • Elthamaddick
    Elthamaddick Posts: 16,248
    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Out of interest I asked ChatGPT about the top. 
    1 Coventry
    2 Middleboro
    3 Ipswich ( Playoff Winner)
    4 Millwall ( Playoff Finalist)
    5 Hull
    6 Wrexham
    phew....
  • RobinOnions
    RobinOnions Posts: 45
    6th of April will be a day for the relegation scrap fans. 
    Portsmouth vs Oxford 
    Blackburn vs West Brom
    Sheff Wed vs Leicester 

    Tasty! 

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  • killerandflash
    killerandflash Posts: 71,329
    ShootersHillGuru said:
    I asked the all knowing all seeing ChatGPT to give us its predictions 


    I never knew ChapGPT was based in Luton  :D
  • bolloxbolder
    bolloxbolder Posts: 8,153
    killerandflash said:
    ShootersHillGuru said:
    I asked the all knowing all seeing ChatGPT to give us its predictions 


    I never knew ChapGPT was based in Luton  :D
    Where's wba?
  • iaitch
    iaitch Posts: 10,490
    Also didn't realise Portsmouth were promoted last season.
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 65,770
    edited March 13
    Claude’s prediction… basically everyone will get between 9 and 13 more points.


  • sam3110
    sam3110 Posts: 22,578
    Callumcafc said:
    Post Wrexham and before these last two wins, some were saying we’d only won three in 22 etc. and we needed to improve to stay up.

    On the other hand…

    If we were to remove November’s five game losing streak from our season, we would have 47 points from 32 games right now. 

    That’s almost 1.5 ppg and is sometimes good enough for top six in this league.

    In reality you can’t just do that and the results are what they are and we deserve to be in exactly the position we’re in. Just thought it was a perspective worth offering.
    I think we should just petition to have a 6 week break next season start of November to mid December, and we'll be top 6 easy
  • Swindon_Addick
    Swindon_Addick Posts: 1,888
    bolloxbolder said:
    killerandflash said:
    ShootersHillGuru said:
    I asked the all knowing all seeing ChatGPT to give us its predictions 


    I never knew ChapGPT was based in Luton  :D
    Where's wba?
    Presumably they went on a winning run and overtook everyone. AI is famous for hallucinating things so why not hallucinate a half-decent West Brom team?
  • charltonkeston
    charltonkeston Posts: 7,427
    fenaddick said:
    Out of interest I did this (excellent) predictor quickly and this is what I got ( I didn't bother with GD)

    https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=2




    I had us finishing 10th with 66 points and Millwall 2nd with 92.
    Shows how much of an expert I am, I can't see Millwall finishing that high.
  • fenaddick
    fenaddick Posts: 16,957
    charltonkeston said:
    fenaddick said:
    Out of interest I did this (excellent) predictor quickly and this is what I got ( I didn't bother with GD)

    https://thefishy.co.uk/calculator0.php?competition=2




    I had us finishing 10th with 66 points and Millwall 2nd with 92.
    Shows how much of an expert I am, I can't see Millwall finishing that high.
    I only bothered with our fixtures and below and erred on the side of pessimism for us to be fair
  • Sword65pf
    Sword65pf Posts: 1,525
    I think we will be closer to playoffs than relegation by the end of the season,obviously not saying we will make a run for them or anything, but I think we will keep going to the end and pick up points consistently the more we relax and enjoy the games left.
  • stonemuse
    stonemuse Posts: 34,495
    I think we’re already safe on 47 points, but would not be surprised if we reached 57-60

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