The mathematics of relegation

Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
- 9 = 54

up_the_valley said:

Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
- 9 = 54

Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?

up_the_valley said:

superclive98 said:

up_the_valley said:

Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
- 9 = 54

Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?

- 9 point lead we have on them. 

What has our lead over them got to do with anything?
They have 8 eight games left and could win them all, achieving a total of 63 points. How would 55 points for us help in that situation?

Exiled_Addick said:

You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

ShootersHillGuru said:

Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?

My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/feb/19/leicester-premier-league-appeal-six-point-deduction

So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 

Just have to make sure that we're fifth bottom (20th) at worse then.

Exiled_Addick said:

You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

ShootersHillGuru said:

Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?

My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 

https://www.theguardian.com/football/2026/feb/19/leicester-premier-league-appeal-six-point-deduction

So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 

You wait. We'll stay up by one point on 55. Mad genius.🤣😃

I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 

paulsturgess said:

I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 

This thread is literally titled “The Mathematics of Relegation”. Hardly surprising that people are discussing the likelihood of relegation in mathematical terms, is it?

I don’t think anyone on here thinks we will get relegated from here, but there’s still probably some points needed to make sure and people are speculating how many that is. 

Exiled_Addick said:

paulsturgess said:

I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 

This thread is literally titled “The Mathematics of Relegation”. Hardly surprising that people are discussing the likelihood of relegation in mathematical terms, is it?

I don’t think anyone on here thinks we will get relegated from here, but there’s still probably some points needed to make sure and people are speculating how many that is. 

Genuine question, do you think we will still stay up if we lose all our remaining games?

No. Not with 48 points (and probably a worse GD than everyone else  seeing as we will have lost 8 games by at least a goal). 

The bottom 3 (excluding Sheff Wed) are currently picking up just over a point a game (according to the last 6 games played). With 8 games remaining I can see at least 2 of them getting another 8-10 points at least. 

50 points could be messy trousers time.
52 points could be squeaky bum time
54 points will be pipe & slippers time.