Attention: Please take a moment to consider our terms and conditions before posting.

The mathematics of relegation

1…7891113

Comments

  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,233
    up_the_valley said:
    superclive98 said:
    up_the_valley said:
    So. At this point we need 55 points to guarantee safety.
    Don't think so. How do you arrive at 55 points?
    Maths
    Show us your workings then!
  • up_the_valley
    up_the_valley Posts: 4,500
    edited March 14
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

  • ShootersHillGuru
    ShootersHillGuru Posts: 50,999
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,233
    up_the_valley said:
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

    Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?
  • up_the_valley
    up_the_valley Posts: 4,500
    superclive98 said:
    up_the_valley said:
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

    Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?
    - 9 point lead we have on them. 
  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,233
    up_the_valley said:
    superclive98 said:
    up_the_valley said:
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

    Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?
    - 9 point lead we have on them. 
    What has our lead over them got to do with anything?
    They have 8 eight games left and could win them all, achieving a total of 63 points. How would 55 points for us help in that situation?
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,506
    edited March 14
    You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
    My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 


    So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

    I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

    It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

    Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 
  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,233
    Exiled_Addick said:
    You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
    My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 


    So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

    I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

    It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

    Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 
    Just have to make sure that we're fifth bottom (20th) at worse then.
  • Weegie Addick
    Weegie Addick Posts: 17,089
    up_the_valley said:
    superclive98 said:
    up_the_valley said:
    Oxford 3×8=24 + 39 = 63 points
    - 9 = 54

    Why do they get minus 9 and what about the other teams?
    - 9 point lead we have on them. 
    And this year’s Stuwall prize goes to…

    Thank you for giving me a good laugh. 😆 
  • up_the_valley
    up_the_valley Posts: 4,500
    Exiled_Addick said:
    You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
    My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 


    So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

    I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

    It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

    Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 
    You wait. We'll stay up by one point on 55. Mad genius.🤣😃

  • Sponsored links:



  • valleynick66
    valleynick66 Posts: 5,336
    Avoiding defeat against Norwich means the pressure is on other teams. 

    Lose and we need favourable results elsewhere for Easter not to be frought. 
  • paulsturgess
    paulsturgess Posts: 4,239
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,233
    paulsturgess said:
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
    No, but I won't fully relax until we are mathematically safe.
  • Exiled_Addick
    Exiled_Addick Posts: 17,506
    paulsturgess said:
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
    This thread is literally titled “The Mathematics of Relegation”. Hardly surprising that people are discussing the likelihood of relegation in mathematical terms, is it?

    I don’t think anyone on here thinks we will get relegated from here, but there’s still probably some points needed to make sure and people are speculating how many that is. 

    Genuine question, do you think we will still stay up if we lose all our remaining games?
  • jimmymelrose
    jimmymelrose Posts: 10,109
    Exiled_Addick said:
    You’ve had a shocker there, @up_the_valley, sorry. 

    ShootersHillGuru said:
    Is there a possibility that Leicesters points deduction will be reduced ? I haven’t heard that ? I thought there was PL pressure to increase it ?
    My understanding is Leicester have appealed on the basis that the EFL shouldn’t be applying punishment for breaching Premier League rules, while the Premier League have appealed for additional punishment to be applied for separate infringements of the rules. 


    So, I believe, the possibility of an increase, no change, or a reduction of the points deduction remains on the table.

    I would have thought a reduced penalty is unlikely, but we’re relying on the legal competency of the EFL, which I’m sure none of us would trust implicitly. 

    It’d also be the most Charlton thing imaginable to get to 55 points by the end of the season and then get somehow still get relegated because Leicester had their docked points given back to them.

    Pessimistic, I know, but you’ve been around long enough, @ShootersHillGuru to know this club is capable of extraordinary things when it comes to bad luck/timing so I’m not ruling anything out until it is categorically resolved one way or the other. 
    Ok, so we need to stay above three teams




    and Leicester  ;)
  • golfaddick
    golfaddick Posts: 35,453
    Exiled_Addick said:
    paulsturgess said:
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
    This thread is literally titled “The Mathematics of Relegation”. Hardly surprising that people are discussing the likelihood of relegation in mathematical terms, is it?

    I don’t think anyone on here thinks we will get relegated from here, but there’s still probably some points needed to make sure and people are speculating how many that is. 

    Genuine question, do you think we will still stay up if we lose all our remaining games?
    No. Not with 48 points (and probably a worse GD than everyone else  seeing as we will have lost 8 games by at least a goal). 

    The bottom 3 (excluding Sheff Wed) are currently picking up just over a point a game (according to the last 6 games played). With 8 games remaining I can see at least 2 of them getting another 8-10 points at least. 

    50 points could be messy trousers time.
    52 points could be squeaky bum time
    54 points will be pipe & slippers time.
  • paulsturgess
    paulsturgess Posts: 4,239
    Exiled_Addick said:
    paulsturgess said:
    I am usually extremely negative and always expect the worst and first to jump on those who start congratulating us for achieving sweet FA

    but I don’t really see this thread now… a 9 point cushion with Wednesday left to play, even ignoring other winnable / mid table games to go… and only 8 left for our rivals 

    I don’t want to curse it but I just don’t really think there’s a conversation to be had other than in strict mathematical terms 
    This thread is literally titled “The Mathematics of Relegation”. Hardly surprising that people are discussing the likelihood of relegation in mathematical terms, is it?

    I don’t think anyone on here thinks we will get relegated from here, but there’s still probably some points needed to make sure and people are speculating how many that is. 

    Genuine question, do you think we will still stay up if we lose all our remaining games?
    fair point!

    but you generally only drill into the maths of something when it is likely to matter in the real world and it no longer does IMO

    I think if we managed to lose all 8 maybe 50-50
    if we managed to get just a single point from Sheff Wed I would take the bet
    if we won just a single more game it's definitive 

    i think we'll end up with 55+
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,995
    Tripe time.

    Despite today's home defeat to Norwich, we are aided by Oxford's loss and the fact that Leicester only gained a point.

    The R number drops to 13 and both Oxford and Leicester (currently with identical records) are the 'critical teams'.
  • superclive98
    superclive98 Posts: 5,233
    Dave Rudd said:
    Tripe time.

    Despite today's home defeat to Norwich, we are aided by Oxford's loss and the fact that Leicester only gained a point.

    The R number drops to 13 and both Oxford and Leicester (currently with identical records) are the 'critical teams'.
    Identical only because goal difference is ignored.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,995
    superclive98 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Tripe time.

    Despite today's home defeat to Norwich, we are aided by Oxford's loss and the fact that Leicester only gained a point.

    The R number drops to 13 and both Oxford and Leicester (currently with identical records) are the 'critical teams'.
    Identical only because goal difference is ignored.

    Correct.

    This is about mathematical certainty.  It's difficult enough predicting results.  Let's not get started on scoreline.

    The other factor which we haven't brought in yet is when relegation candidates are still to play one another.  This will also potentially have a bearing on the maximum theoretical total that some teams can obtain.

    We'll do that when the permutations are more manageable.

  • Sponsored links:



  • Northupper
    Northupper Posts: 58
    Dave Rudd said:
    superclive98 said:
    Dave Rudd said:
    Tripe time.

    Despite today's home defeat to Norwich, we are aided by Oxford's loss and the fact that Leicester only gained a point.

    The R number drops to 13 and both Oxford and Leicester (currently with identical records) are the 'critical teams'.
    Identical only because goal difference is ignored.

    Correct.

    This is about mathematical certainty.  It's difficult enough predicting results.  Let's not get started on scoreline.

    The other factor which we haven't brought in yet is when relegation candidates are still to play one another.  This will also potentially have a bearing on the maximum theoretical total that some teams can obtain.

    We'll do that when the permutations are more manageable.
    6th of April , all the teams below us play another team below us. Will have a big effect.
  • Zulu
    Zulu Posts: 421
    So, whats the number now?
  • cantersaddick
    cantersaddick Posts: 17,981
    Zulu said:
    So, whats the number now?
    Match ended 14 mins ago. Give him a chance! :p
  • Zulu
    Zulu Posts: 421
    cantersaddick said:
    Zulu said:
    So, whats the number now?
    Match ended 14 mins ago. Give him a chance! :p
    I didnt expect the answer to be posted immediately !
  • Swindon_Addick
    Swindon_Addick Posts: 1,933
    Zulu said:
    So, whats the number now?
    Pretty much everyone below us drew, including Oxford and Leicester, so even my maths is up to this one - the magic number reduces from 13 to 11.
  • Dave Rudd
    Dave Rudd Posts: 2,995
    Swindon_Addick said:
    Zulu said:
    So, whats the number now?
    Pretty much everyone below us drew, including Oxford and Leicester, so even my maths is up to this one - the magic number reduces from 13 to 11.

    Yes, despite our failings today, the R number reduces to 11 as both Leicester and Oxford dropped two points.
  • Bedsaddick
    Bedsaddick Posts: 25,276
    Swindon_Addick said:
    Zulu said:
    So, whats the number now?
    Pretty much everyone below us drew, including Oxford and Leicester, so even my maths is up to this one - the magic number reduces from 13 to 11.
    11 what ? 
  • Fumbluff
    Fumbluff Posts: 10,415
    winkles
  • Arsenetatters
    Arsenetatters Posts: 6,231
    new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
  • Callumcafc
    Callumcafc Posts: 65,972
    edited April 3
    Arsenetatters said:
    new to this discussion but goes that mean 51 points and we're safe?
    It means that the highest points total for third bottom is 58 (40 current plus 18 up for grabs) so if we got 11 points from our last six games (for 59 total) it would 100% mathematically guarantee we are safe.

Categories

“Marketplace”